According to a report by Mining.com, Ivanhoe Mines announced that its Kakula West copper mine in the Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC) has resumed production after a temporary suspension lasting one month. This underground mine is part of the company's Kamoa-Kakula copper joint venture. On May 18, the mine was forced to suspend production due to severe water inflow caused by seismic activity in the region. The Kamoa-Kakula joint venture is Africa's largest copper mine, with Ivanhoe holding a 39.6% stake. Analysts believe that once the necessary pumping and repair work is completed, the mine should be able to resume production. Mining activities in the eastern section are also expected to commence immediately, with a focus on advancing from existing stopes to new areas. In a statement, Robert Friedland, the company's Executive Chairman, said, "We are grateful and thankful to our team for their rapid response in stabilizing the water table at Kakula and resuming mining on the west side." "The team quickly secured the critical equipment needed to remove water from the entire mine, while also preparing to mine a high-grade area in the east." With the resumption of production at the Kakula copper mine, Ivanhoe has set new production targets for the Kamoa-Kakula joint venture in 2025: 370,000 to 420,000 mt of copper concentrates. Based on the midpoint, this projection represents a 28% decrease from the previous production target set in January (520,000 to 580,000 mt). Ivanhoe stated that the downward revision in production expectations takes into account the potential impact of recent seismic activity and related disruptions at the Kakula mine. Several risk factors, such as further seismic activity and infrastructure damage, were also highlighted as considerations. Additionally, the company's management has withdrawn the production target of approximately 600,000 mt for 2026, pending further evaluation. Friedland emphasized, "Although it is premature to establish production plans for 2026 and 2027, the future of the Kamoa-Kakula joint venture remains bright." As previously disclosed, the Phase 1 and Phase 2 beneficiation plants at Kakula are still operating at half of their capacity, processing surface ore inventory. The beneficiation plants are expected to restore their capacity for the remainder of the year as mining volumes increase in the western section of the mine, according to Ivanhoe. Meanwhile, the Kamoa underground mine, as well as the adjacent Phase 3 beneficiation plant, are operating well. With the necessary copper concentrate supply in place, the on-site smelter is expected to commence operations in September, with the first products to be produced in October 2025.

On June 12th, Bloomberg reported that Teck Resources and Sumitomo Metal Mining are locked in a dispute over treatment and refining charges (TC/RCs) in a major copper concentrate supply agreement. The disagreement, centered on shipments from Teck’s Quebrada Blanca and Highland Valley mines, has prompted the appointment of lawyers to select an industry expert as an independent referee. The clash highlights cracks in the traditional benchmark pricing system, after Antofagasta’s 2025 deal with Chinese smelters set TC/RCs at $21.25/2.125 cents, far below historical norms. Some Japanese buyers, including Sumitomo, have resisted adopting this benchmark amid sharply falling spot TC/RCs, which have recently turned negative. The situation underscores growing tension between well-funded Chinese smelters and financially pressured Western peers, with some smelters in the Philippines and Namibia already suspending operations.

》Check SMM metal quotes, data, and market analysis 》Subscribe to view historical price trends of SMM metal spot cargo On June 13, the SMM Imported Copper Concentrate Index (weekly) was reported at -$44.75/dmt, a decrease of $1.46/dmt from the previous -$43.29/dmt. The pricing coefficient for 20% grade domestic trade ore was 93%-95%. Trading activity in the copper concentrate spot market was sluggish during the week. A trader offered 10,000 mt of clean ore from Peru to a smelter at a price in the mid-to-high -$40s/dmt, with a loading period in July and a QP of M+1/5. A smelter had previously purchased 20,000 mt of Caserones and Centinela copper concentrates from a large trader under an index-linked settlement model, with a loading period in July and a QP of M+1/5. During the week, a trader offered 10,000 mt of bundled clean ore to a smelter at a high -$40s/dmt price, with a loading period in July. The gold payable was fully priced after a deduction of 0.3 for gold content below 1 gram. According to market rumors, a large trader offered copper concentrates to two leading domestic smelters, with a total volume of 300,000 mt of ore (long-term contract + spot cargo) at a price in the mid-to-high -$40s/dmt, with a loading period in H2. According to SMM, most Chinese smelters participating in long-term contract negotiations have not yet received a second-round long-term contract offer from Antofagasta. However, one smelter has already responded with a positive single-digit high offer. Japanese smelters have also not initiated a second-round long-term contract offer. They are adhering to the pricing stance since CESCO at the end of last year, insisting on a long-term contract price of $20/30, otherwise, their production and operation will face losses. Ivanhoe Mines announced its latest 2025 production guidance for copper from the Kamoa-Kakula mine, which is 370,000-420,000 mt in metal content, a decrease of 28% from the 520,000-580,000 mt in metal content guidance released at the beginning of the year, mainly due to the earthquake that previously hit the Kakula copper mine. Sinomine Resource Group announced that due to the rapid expansion of global copper smelting capacity, leading to a shortage of copper concentrate supply, its Tsumeb copper smelter in Namibia has temporarily suspended copper smelting operations. In 2024, Sinomine Resource Group acquired the Tsumeb smelter. This smelter is one of the few facilities globally capable of processing copper concentrates containing arsenic and lead, with an annual processing capacity of 240,000 mt of copper concentrates. The SMM copper concentrate inventory at nine ports was 812,800 mt on June 13, an increase of 65,500 mt from the previous period. The main increase came from Qingdao Port, where copper concentrate inventory increased by 40,000 mt WoW this week. 》Check SMM metal industry chain database

[SMM Analysis:When it rains, it pours: Global copper concentrate supply-demand balance results after KK Mine earthquake ] At the end of May, Chinese smelters started mid-year negotiations with Antofagasta. In the first round of negotiations this year, mining companies have offered smelters a quotation with -$15 , which is far lower than the $0 leaked by the market in late April. According to SMM, many raw material procurement teams from leading smelters in the CSPT group stated that this negotiation is extremely difficult, and it is arduous to strive for a favorable figure.

In Q1, supported by the tight global supply of copper concentrates, the center of copper prices shifted significantly higher YoY, with the most-traded contract climbing to a historical high of RMB 83,320/mt.

View SMM Copper Quotes, Data, and Market Analysis Click to View SMM Spot Copper Historical Price Trends SMM May 30 News: China's copper cathode production in May increased by 12,600 mt MoM, up 1.12%, and rose 12.86% YoY. Cumulative production from January-May increased by 544,800 mt YoY, up 11.09%. May's copper cathode production exceeded expectations by 8,400 mt, mainly due to the following reasons: 1) Smelters that underwent maintenance in April resumed production as scheduled, with output exceeding expectations; 2) Production at newly commissioned smelters continued to rise; 3) Imports of copper anode plates continued to increase in May; 4) Inventories of copper concentrates at major domestic ports slightly declined from 835,600 mt at April-end to 795,900 mt at May-end, though still significantly higher than the 575,200 mt recorded in mid-March, indicating no tightness in copper concentrate supply for smelters. 5) Sulphuric acid prices rebounded in May due to reduced supply and increased export demand, a trend expected to persist until late June. Higher sulphuric acid prices effectively offset smelting losses. However, it is noteworthy that production at smelters not using copper concentrates (relying on copper scrap or anode plates) declined due to tight copper scrap supply, as reflected in their lower operating rate (68.9% in May, down 3 percentage points). Additionally, mid-year long-term contract negotiations between mines and smelters have commenced, with the first round offering TC-$15/mt, implying most smelters—whether under long-term contracts or spot orders—will face losses, increasing pressure for future production cuts. In summary, the sample operating rate for China's copper cathode industry in May was 88.82%, up 1.02 percentage points MoM. Large smelters recorded an operating rate of 92.73% (up 1.58 percentage points MoM), medium-sized smelters at 84.68% (up 1.92 percentage points MoM), and small smelters at 62.89% (down 8.5 percentage points MoM). Smelters using copper concentrates operated at 93.3% (up 1.8 percentage points MoM), while those not using copper concentrates (relying on copper scrap or anode plates) operated at 68.9% (down 3 percentage points MoM). Entering June, only one smelter in our survey has maintenance plans. However, the number of enterprises reporting lower capacity utilisation rates has increased significantly, with nearly 40% of surveyed firms implementing production cuts to varying degrees—double the figure in May. Thus, total production in June is expected to decline MoM. Based on production schedules, SMM forecasts China's June copper cathode output to drop by 7,200 mt MoM (down 0.63%), while rising by 126,100 mt YoY (up 12.55%). The cumulative production from January to June is expected to increase by 670,900 mt YoY, with a growth rate of 11.34%. In June, the sample operating rate of the copper cathode industry was 88.26%, down 0.56 percentage points MoM. Among them, the operating rate of large smelters was 91.27%, down 1.46 percentage points MoM; the operating rate of medium-sized smelters was 84.46%, down 0.22 percentage points MoM; and the operating rate of small smelters was 70.65%, up 7.76 percentage points MoM. The operating rate of smelters using copper concentrates was 92.5%, down 0.8 percentage points MoM; the operating rate of smelters not using copper concentrates (copper scrap or copper anode) was 69.6%, up 0.7 percentage points MoM. Finally, we expect production to continue to decline in July, with tight raw material supply being the main reason.