[SMM Analysis: China's Copper Concentrates Imports in April: Unexpected Yet Reasonable] In April 2025, China's copper concentrates imports reached a record high of 2.9244 million mt, up 22.16% MoM, up 24.55% YoY, and up 7.46% on a cumulative YoY basis. It is not difficult to observe that from year-end 2024 to H1 2025, many copper smelters in China commenced operations, releasing smelting capacity. The surge in copper concentrates imports, driven by a significant increase in demand for copper concentrates, was reasonable. However, the unexpectedly high import value of copper concentrates came as a surprise. We attribute the high volume of copper concentrates imports to the following factors.

[SMM Analysis: Indonesia and Panama Relax Copper Concentrate Export Policies — Can Distant Water Quench Immediate Thirst?] According to SMM, the Indonesian government announced on Monday that it had issued a six-month copper concentrate export permit to Freeport Indonesia. Today, Freeport Indonesia stated that it has obtained an export permit for 1.27 million mt of copper concentrates from the Indonesian Ministry of Trade, allowing shipments of Freeport copper concentrates from Papua Port to commence. Meanwhile, on March 13, the President of Panama announced the approval of the export of 120,000 mt of Cobre Panama copper concentrates.

[Indonesia to Issue 6-Month Copper Concentrates Export Permit to Freeport Indonesia with Quota of 1.27 Million mt] According to mining.com citing Reuters, Indonesia's energy minister stated on Monday that the country will issue a six-month copper concentrates export permit to Freeport Indonesia, allowing the company to export copper concentrates during smelter maintenance. This will also ensure that the Indonesian government continues to receive royalties. Freeport CEO Tony Wenas said the company has been granted an export quota of approximately 1.27 million mt of copper concentrates and added that the company will apply for a formal export permit from Indonesia's trade ministry.

[Freeport Indonesia Seeks to Obtain Copper Concentrate Export Permit as Soon as Possible] On Thursday, March 13, the CEO of copper miner Freeport Indonesia stated that the company hopes to obtain a copper concentrate export permit as soon as possible after the Minister of Energy and Mineral Resources approves the revision of its annual business plan. According to Wenas, under the revised business plan, Freeport seeks to export 1.2 million mt of concentrates, but the ministry has yet to decide on the actual export quota. (Webstock Inc.)

[SMM Commentary: Domestic Inventory Turning Point to Emerge; Where Will Copper Prices Head Amid Trade Uncertainty?] US President Trump ordered an investigation into copper imports, with the results to serve as the basis for imposing new tariffs. Trump stated that a 25% tariff on goods from Canada and Mexico would take effect on March 4. On February 26 local time, Trump said he expected to announce tariff hikes on EU goods exported to the US soon. Trump's aggressive tariff measures have drawn strong responses from multiple countries. Market concerns over global trade conflicts have intensified, and under the shadow of trade uncertainty, copper prices fluctuated downward this week.

[SMM Commentary: SHFE Copper Declined This Week, Inventory Buildup Trend May Slow, Copper Market Awaits Clearer Direction] The uncertainty in the global trade outlook disrupted copper prices, with post-holiday copper inventory buildup exceeding the average level of the same period in previous years, putting pressure on copper prices. Additionally, copper price fluctuations have made enterprises, already in the off-season of demand, even more cautious in procurement. Although tight supply on the mining side provided strong support for copper prices, SHFE copper still declined this week. As of 16:37 on February 21, LME copper fell by 0.99% to $9,469/mt, with a slight weekly decline of 0.08%; SHFE copper dropped by 0.47%, with a weekly decline of 1.02%.