SMM July 2 At 11:30 today, the futures closing price was 102,180 yuan/mt, up 160 yuan/mt from the previous trading day. The average spot premium was 50 yuan/mt, up 10 yuan/mt from the previous trading day. The copper scrap price rose by 200 yuan/mt from the previous trading day. The copper scrap selling sentiment index dropped to 2.32, and the buying sentiment index dropped to 2.45. The price difference between copper cathode and copper scrap was 1,169 yuan/mt, down 53 yuan/mt from the previous trading day. The price difference between copper cathode rod and secondary copper rod was 130 yuan/mt. According to the SMM survey, on the second day of the implementation of the "reverse invoicing" rule, the copper scrap market showed no significant changes. With tight supply, the copper scrap price struggled to widen its spread against copper cathode. Many secondary copper rod enterprises continued to make just-in-time procurement.

North China: As of this Thursday, spot discounts were 160-80/mt, with an average discount of 120 yuan/mt, up 20 yuan/mt from last Friday. This week, futures moved sideways, downstream procurement was marked by a strong wait-and-see sentiment, and overall demand was weak. Early this month, market circulating supply tightened, suppliers' willingness to hold prices firm increased, spot discounts moved up simultaneously, and market trading cooled. Overall, trading activity in the North China market this week was lower than last week. Looking ahead, the demand side is unlikely to improve in the short term, coupled with suppliers' maintaining of firm prices and wait-and-see stance, the market trading is expected to be difficult to recover.

[Shanghai Spot Copper] Looking ahead to tomorrow, the early-month procurement cycle is continuing, downstream demand is still being released, and both buying and selling sentiment have been rebounding, keeping market trading activity relatively brisk. On the supplier side, after low-priced cargoes were rapidly absorbed, discounted cargoes became hard to find in the market, and suppliers developed a stronger willingness to hold prices firm. Buyers’ parity bids could not be executed. Due to scarce availability, premiums for high-quality copper held at the high level of 80-100 yuan/mt, providing support to overall premiums. On the inventory front, SMM data showed that social inventory in the Shanghai region recorded 126,500 mt, down 7,700 mt WoW from Monday; in the Jiangsu region, social inventory recorded 36,200 mt, down 5,000 mt WoW from Monday, with both regions showing a destocking trend. Overall, driven by the confluence of early-month demand release, suppliers holding prices firm, and inventory destocking, spot Shanghai copper against the SHFE 2607 contract is expected to remain at a premium tomorrow, maintaining an overall strong trend.

July 2, 2026 Guangdong region: This week, premiums and discounts bottomed out and then rebounded. At the beginning of the week, due to mid-year financial constraints at enterprises, suppliers actively cut prices to monetize, but downstream buyers were reluctant to purchase, causing premiums to continue to decline. After the contract rollover, suppliers stopped cutting prices, and spot premiums surged. As of Thursday, high-quality copper was quoted at 50 yuan/mt, down 40 yuan/mt from last Thursday; standard-quality copper was quoted at a premium of 0 yuan/mt, down 20 yuan/mt from last Thursday; SX-EW copper was quoted at a discount of 60 yuan/mt, down 20 yuan/mt from last Thursday. On Thursday, the price spread for standard-quality copper premiums between Shanghai and Guangdong was 0 yuan/mt, which was relatively small and led to no inter-regional shipments. According to SMM statistics, as of Thursday, total inventory in Guangdong warehouses stood at 31,700 mt, up 11,100 mt from last Thursday, with warrant holdings totaling 5,800 mt, up 3,134 mt from last Thursday. Specifically, this week's warehouse arrivals were 20,900 mt/week, up 3,300 mt/week from last week, significantly above the annual average of 14,000 mt/week. Mid-year, smelters faced pressure to monetize and actively shipped out, and with downstream consumption weak, deliveries to warehouses increased. Warehouse withdrawals were 10,100 mt/week, down 2,200 mt from last week, below the annual average of 14,200 mt/week, mainly due to weak downstream consumption this week. Looking ahead to next week, it is reported that arrivals of both domestic and imported copper will be limited, while downstream consumption is expected to gradually recover. Inventory is likely to decline again, and spot premiums are expected to gradually pick up. (The above information is based on market collection and the comprehensive assessment of the SMM research team. The information provided is for reference only. This article does not constitute direct investment research decision advice. Clients should make decisions prudently and not use this as a substitute for independent judgment. Any decisions made by clients are unrelated to Shanghai Metals Market.)

In North China, spot #1 copper cathode against the front-month contract was reported at an average discount of 160 yuan/mt to 80 yuan/mt, with the average discount at 120 yuan/mt, up 20 yuan/mt from the previous trading day, and the average transaction price was 102,230 yuan/mt, up 330 yuan/mt from the previous trading day.

SMM, July 2: Today, Guangdong #1 copper cathode spot prices against the front-month contract: high-quality copper was reported at 50 yuan/mt, unchanged from the previous trading day; standard-quality copper was at 0 yuan/mt, unchanged; and SX-EW copper was at a discount of 60 yuan/mt, unchanged. The average price of Guangdong #1 copper cathode was 102,340 yuan/mt, up 120 yuan/mt from the previous trading day, while the average price of SX-EW copper was 102,255 yuan/mt, also up 120 yuan/mt. Spot market: Guangdong inventory finally ended its 9 consecutive increases and edged down, mainly driven by recovering downstream consumption. Benefiting from the inventory decline, suppliers actively held prices firm in early trading, pushing standard-quality copper up to a premium of 20 yuan/mt. However, buyers' purchase willingness was low, forcing an adjustment back down, with the final transaction price at parity, unchanged from yesterday. Today, copper cathode purchase sentiment in Guangdong was 2.48, edging up 0.03 from the previous day, while shipment sentiment was 2.86, down 0.03 (historical data can be accessed by logging into the database). Overall, intraday premiums retreated after a rapid rise, only to close unchanged from yesterday, with overall trading being moderate.