[SMM Tin Morning Briefing: The Most-Traded SHFE Tin Contract Opened Slightly Lower in the Night Session and Then Fluctuated Higher, While Downstream Enterprises Mainly Purchased to Restock for Phased Production Needs]

Today, the most-traded BC copper 2605 contract opened at 85,360 yuan/mt. After the opening, its center moved higher to a high of 85,910 yuan/mt, then fell to a low of 84,530 yuan/mt, and finally closed at 84,820 yuan/mt, down 0.84%. Open interest reached 6,442 lots, up 237 lots from the previous trading day, while trading volume reached 4,508 lots, up 219 lots from the previous trading day. On the macro front, market sentiment was affected by Trump's remarks on the US-Iran issue, with risk appetite weakening and expectations for a swift end to the Middle East conflict cooling, which was bearish for copper prices. Fundamentals, on the supply side, imported cargoes have continued to arrive recently, and overall spot circulation remained relatively ample. On the demand side, downstream enterprises still showed limited acceptance of current price levels, with just-in-time procurement remaining the main approach overall. Inventory, as of Thursday, April 2, SMM copper inventories in major regions across China fell 14.04% WoW from last Thursday, while total inventory increased 53,800 mt YoY and has posted destocking for three consecutive weeks. The SHFE copper 2605 contract closed at 95,880 yuan/mt. Based on the BC copper 2605 contract price of 84,820 yuan/mt, its after-tax price was 95,847 yuan/mt. The price spread between the SHFE copper 2605 contract and BC copper was 33 yuan/mt, showing a contango structure.

[Silicon Metal Price Center Remained in the Doldrums]: This week, the silicon metal market stayed weak, with the transaction center for some silicon metal grades edging lower. As of April 2, SMM east China prices were oxygen-blown #553 silicon at 9,000-9,200 yuan/mt, down 100 yuan/mt WoW; 441# silicon at 9,300-9,400 yuan/mt, down 50 yuan/mt WoW; and 3303# silicon at 10,100-10,300 yuan/mt, down 100 yuan/mt WoW. In the futures market, the most-traded silicon metal contract remained weak, with the SI2605 contract closing at 8,300 yuan/mt on Thursday, down 435 yuan/mt WoW. Spot declines were narrower than futures prices, and the advantage in supplier shipments shifted from silicon enterprises to trading firms engaging in both spot and futures market. During the week, market prices were under pressure, while procurement volume from some downstream users and export traders increased, with transactions in some grades remaining moderate.

Iron ore futures showed a stronger trend in the morning session today but weakened in the afternoon. The main contract I2605 eventually closed at 805 yuan/ton, down 1.29% from the previous trading session.

LME has announced that the "SMD" brand cathode copper produced by CNMC's Deziwa Mining Company has been recognized as a high-quality deliverable product meeting the Copper Grade A contract standard.

Dalian iron ore was stronger in the morning session today, but pulled back in the afternoon. The most-traded contract, I2605, finally closed at 805 yuan/mt, down 1.29% from the previous trading session. Spot prices fell by about 3-7 yuan from the previous trading day. Traders were moderately active in offering quotes, while steel mills made fewer inquiries; as of now, spot market transactions were average. Fundamentals, inventory at the 10-port sample showed clear structural divergence this week. Among them, mainstream mid-grade ores such as PB fines and blended fines saw a notable inventory buildup, with PB fines surging 1.24 million WoW to nearly 9 million. In contrast, IOCJ fines, super special fines, and high-silicon Brazilian coarse ore bucked the trend and posted destocking. This divergence indicated that, against the backdrop of steel mill profits coming under pressure, the consumption side was accelerating toward extreme cost reduction. Steel mills generally adopted a barbell-style ore blending strategy of pairing high- and low-grade materials, significantly squeezing demand for mainstream mid-grade ore and putting further pressure on iron ore's upward momentum. On the macro front, driven by persistently high inflation outside China and fading expectations for US Fed interest rate cuts, tighter US dollar liquidity further weighed on bullish sentiment in commodities. Combined with pressure from elevated inventory on the micro side and weak demand for mid-grade ore, iron ore prices lacked drivers for an upward breakout in the short term and are expected to remain in the doldrums within a narrow range.