Vietnam’s Ministry of Finance has proposed extending preferential special consumption tax rates for battery electric vehicles with fewer than 24 seats until the end of 2030, as part of efforts to accelerate the country’s shift away from fossil fuels and support its net-zero emissions target. The ministry said the policy is intended to encourage the adoption of environmentally friendly transport. Currently, electric vehicles are taxed at 1–3%, significantly lower than the 10–150% applied to internal combustion engine vehicles. Under existing plans, EV tax rates are set to rise to 4–11% from March 2027.

SMM April 18 Update: Metals market: Last Friday's overnight session saw broad gains across base metals in the domestic market. SHFE copper rose 0.78%; on a weekly basis, SHFE copper posted a four-week winning streak, gaining 4.07% for the week. SHFE aluminum fell 1.25%, SHFE lead rose 0.24%, SHFE zinc rose 0.71%, SHFE tin rose 0.03%, and SHFE nickel fell 2.19%. In addition, the most-traded alumina futures contract fell 1.01%, and the most-traded foundry aluminum continuous contract fell 1.18%. Last Friday's overnight session saw ferrous metals all fall. Iron ore fell 0.58%, stainless steel fell 0.27%, rebar fell 0.16%, and hot-rolled coil rose 0.09%. Coking coal and coke: coking coal fell 0.24%, and coke fell 0.18%. Overseas market metals last Friday overnight, LME base metals broadly rose. LME copper rose 0.81%; on a weekly basis, LME copper posted a four-day winning streak, gaining 3.83% for the week. LME aluminum fell 2.72%, LME lead rose 0.8%, LME zinc rose 0.25%, LME tin rose 0.03%, and LME nickel rose 1.69%. Precious metals last Friday overnight : COMEX gold rose 0.85%, posting a three-week winning streak with a weekly gain of 1.3%; COMEX silver rose 2.82%, posting a four-week winning streak with a weekly gain of 5.82%. Last Friday overnight, SHFE gold rose 0.94%, posting a three-week winning streak with a weekly gain of 0.12%; SHFE silver rose 3.74%, posting a four-week winning streak with a weekly gain of 5.18%. Gold prices rebounded amid optimistic sentiment over US-Iran negotiations, but further gains may be limited until the geopolitical situation becomes clearer. Commerzbank analysts noted: "Gold prices also rebounded on hopes of an end to the war, as this eased concerns that central banks would have to respond to higher inflation risks with tighter monetary policy, thereby increasing the opportunity cost of holding gold. However, as long as uncertainty remains elevated, the underlying recovery in the gold market may be temporarily exhausted." As of 7:45 AM on April 18, last Friday's overnight closing prices: Macro front China: [State Council Executive Meeting: Deeply Implement the Strategy to Upgrade Pilot Free Trade Zones and Promote High-Quality Development of Pilot FTZs] Li Qiang chaired a State Council executive meeting to hear reports on the development of pilot free trade zones. The meeting noted that since the 18th CPC National Congress, pilot FTZs had actively explored deepening reform, expanding opening-up, and promoting development, achieving a series of breakthrough and pioneering results and effectively serving as comprehensive pilot platforms. In the face of new circumstances and new tasks, it is necessary to thoroughly implement the strategy for upgrading pilot free trade zones, reform and improve institutional mechanisms, further optimize the layout and enhance capacity, and better serve the overall national development. Efforts should be made to adapt measures to local conditions, proceed in a steady and orderly manner, and pursue practical results. On the basis of scientific assessment and evaluation, and in accordance with local conditions and actual needs, tailored plans should be formulated for each zone to solidly advance related work and promote high-quality development of pilot free trade zones. Support should be given to pilot free trade zones such as Shanghai to leverage their functional positioning, proactively align with high-standard international economic and trade rules, steadily expand institutional opening-up in terms of rules, regulations, management, and standards, explore and develop more replicable and scalable experiences and practices, and better play a demonstrative, leading, and radiating role. (CCTV News) [MOF and Another Department: Adjusting the Scope of VAT and Consumption Tax Refund Goods for Pingtan Comprehensive Experimental Zone] The Ministry of Finance and the State Taxation Administration announced the adjustment of the scope of VAT and consumption tax refund goods for Pingtan Comprehensive Experimental Zone. Goods related to production sold from the mainland to Pingtan via the "second line" shall be treated as exports, and VAT and consumption tax refunds shall be implemented in accordance with current tax policy provisions. However, the following goods are excluded: 1 Exported goods to which the Ministry of Finance and the State Taxation Administration have stipulated that VAT refund (exemption) and tax exemption policies do not apply. 2 Goods procured for commercial real estate development projects in Pingtan. Commercial real estate development projects refer to the construction (including renovation and expansion) of hotels, office buildings, villas, apartments, residences, commercial shopping venues, entertainment and service facilities, catering establishments, and other commercial real estate projects. 3 Other goods sold from the mainland to Pingtan that are not eligible for tax refunds. The specific scope is detailed in the appendix. 4 Goods purchased by enterprises whose tax refund or exemption eligibility has been revoked in accordance with relevant regulations. (Ministry of Finance) (Jin10 Data APP) [General Administration of Customs: Supporting Local Governments in Building Bulk Commodity Collection, Distribution, Storage, and Transportation Bases Leveraging Comprehensive Bonded Zones to Conduct Storage and Distribution of Bulk Commodities Such as Energy and Mineral Products] On April 17, the General Office of the State Council forwarded the notice of the General Administration of Customs on Several Measures for Promoting the Expansion and Quality Improvement of Comprehensive Bonded Zones. Among the measures proposed, serving national strategic needs was highlighted. Support is given to local governments to build bulk commodity collection, distribution, storage, and transportation bases leveraging comprehensive bonded zones, and to conduct storage and distribution of bulk commodities such as energy and mineral products. Enterprises within the zones are allowed to carry out physical blending of metal ore products through bonded logistics. Differentiated conformity assessment shall be implemented. Support is given to enterprises within the zones to conduct key core technology research in areas such as artificial intelligence, integrated circuits, industrial master machines, medical equipment, instruments and meters, advanced materials, basic software, and industrial software. Differentiated conformity assessment shall be implemented for relevant equipment, reagents, and consumables imported by enterprises in accordance with national statutory inspection requirements. [CSRC Solicits Public Comments on the Measures for the Supervision and Administration of Futures Companies (Exposure Draft) and Supporting Implementation Provisions] Building on the public consultation conducted in March 2023, the CSRC, in light of new circumstances and issues encountered in futures industry regulatory practice, conducted further research and deliberation on the relevant institutional arrangements of the Measures for the Supervision and Administration of Futures Companies, and formulated a new Measures for the Supervision and Administration of Futures Companies (Exposure Draft). Concurrently, the CSRC drafted the Announcement on Matters Concerning the Implementation of the (Exposure Draft) as supporting implementation provisions. Public comments are now being solicited. The new Measures for the Supervision and Administration of Futures Companies (Exposure Draft) shifts futures market-making and derivatives trading businesses — previously operated by risk management subsidiaries with filing-based access and self-regulatory management by the China Futures Association — to be operated by futures companies, subject to licensing-based access and administrative supervision, and strengthens the regulation of futures companies' subsidiaries and branches. US dollar: Last Friday, the overnight US dollar index rose 0.02% to 98.22. On a weekly basis, the US dollar index fell for a third consecutive week, down 0.48% for the week. After Iran announced that the Strait of Hormuz was now "fully open" to commercial shipping, the US dollar erased all gains since the outbreak of the US-Iran conflict, further weakening demand for safe-haven assets. The index declined consecutively as investors focused on ceasefire and negotiations toward a potentially broader agreement. Jayati Bharadwaj, head of FX strategy at TD Securities, said: "The safe-haven bid has started to fade. That's why the dollar is lower." (Jin10 Data) Fed Governor Waller said he was cautious about whether an interest rate cut was needed in the near term due to the energy shock triggered by the Iran war, and warned that the conflict could have a lasting impact on inflation. In his remarks, Waller outlined two main scenarios. In the first scenario, if the Strait of Hormuz reopens and trade flows return to normal, officials would be able to look through the surge in energy prices and shift their focus to the weakening job market later this year. He said that if this were the case, "I think there is a prospect that underlying inflation will continue to pull back toward the 2% target, which would make me cautious about cutting interest rates now and more inclined to support the labour market through interest rate cuts later this year when the outlook is more stable." However, he warned that oil prices and the broader market were underestimating the risk of a prolonged conflict. "On the inflation front, the risk is that the longer the conflict lasts and the longer energy prices stay high, the greater the likelihood that these elevated prices seep into other prices, as enterprises factor high energy input costs into their pricing."He stated that if this occurred against a backdrop of a weak jobs market, it would limit the scope for policy response. In such a scenario, he would weigh the risks of higher inflation against a weaker labour market, adding that "if inflation risks outweigh labour market risks, this could mean keeping the policy rate at the current target range." (Jin10 Data) Other currencies: ECB Governing Council member De Marco: June is a more natural time to make a judgment; there is not much additional information in April; the situation seems to be heading toward an adverse scenario; the rate decisions in April or June are not yet set in stone. (Jin10 Data) Analysts at Berenberg Bank said in a report that once the worst of the Middle East conflict passes, Europe's positive fundamentals should re-emerge. Economic growth is likely to be led by Germany, which, in addition to fiscal stimulus, should accelerate pro-growth reforms. They stated: "We expect most eurozone member states to return to their 2025 growth rates by 2027." By 2028, eurozone growth is expected to be around 1.5%. The UK should experience a greater upside. By contrast, US growth is expected to slow down in the coming years. The analysts stated: "Tariff-induced capital misallocation, pervasive Trump policy uncertainty, and most importantly, the harsh crackdown on immigration will all take a toll." (Jin10 Data) On the macro front: Data to be released this week include: China's 1-year Loan Prime Rate as of April 20; Germany's March PPI MoM; Canada's March CPI MoM; Switzerland's March trade balance; UK February three-month ILO unemployment rate; UK March unemployment rate; UK March jobseeker's allowance claimant count; Germany's April ZEW Economic Sentiment Index; eurozone April ZEW Economic Sentiment Index; US March retail sales MoM; US February business inventory MoM; US March pending home sales index MoM; UK March CPI MoM; UK March Retail Price Index MoM; eurozone April consumer confidence index preliminary reading; China's March SWIFT RMB share in global payments; France's April manufacturing PMI preliminary reading; Germany's April manufacturing PMI preliminary reading; eurozone April manufacturing PMI preliminary reading; UK April manufacturing PMI preliminary reading; UK April services PMI preliminary reading; UK April CBI industrial orders balance; US initial jobless claims for the week ending April 18; US April S&P Global manufacturing PMI preliminary reading; US April S&P Global services PMI preliminary reading; Japan's March core CPI YoY; UK March seasonally adjusted retail sales MoM; Germany's April IFO Business Climate Index; Canada's February retail sales MoM; US April University of Michigan consumer sentiment index final reading; and US April one-year inflation expectations final reading. In addition, other events to watch this week included: German Chancellor Merz and European Central Bank (ECB) President Lagarde delivering speeches; the US Senate Banking Committee holding a hearing on Kevin Warsh's nomination as Fed Chairman; China opening a new round of refined oil price adjustment window; ECB President Lagarde delivering a speech; US President Trump hosting an early summer White House Correspondents' Dinner. (Jin10 Data) Crude Oil: Last Friday, both oil futures fell sharply overnight, with WTI crude dropping 7.86% and Brent crude falling 7.01%. On a weekly basis, WTI crude futures fell more than 10% for two consecutive weeks, down 13.02% for the week; Brent crude posted two consecutive weekly declines, down 2.92% for the week. Easing market sentiment from US-Iran nuclear negotiations, coupled with Iran's foreign minister stating that the Strait of Hormuz would be open to all commercial vessels during the Lebanon-Israel ceasefire, drove crude oil prices lower. Iran announced the opening of the Strait of Hormuz, and Trump confirmed. According to Xinhua News Agency, Iranian Foreign Minister Araghchi said on the 17th that, given the ceasefire between Lebanon and Israel, Iran would open the Strait of Hormuz to all commercial vessels during the ceasefire period. US President Trump subsequently confirmed this. (Wall Street Journal CN) However, according to the latest report from Xinhua News Agency: Iranian Islamic Parliament Speaker Ghalibaf posted on social media in the early hours of the 18th, stating that the seven statements US President Trump had previously posted on social media within one hour were "all untrue." The US failed to win wars through lies and would gain nothing in negotiations either. Ghalibaf emphasized that if the US continued to blockade Iranian ports, the Strait of Hormuz could not remain open. (Xinhua News Agency) According to Reuters, approximately 20 minutes before Iran's foreign minister announced the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz on local time Friday, investors placed approximately $760 million in short bets on oil prices, marking yet another large wager on the world's most actively traded commodity ahead of a major development during the Middle East conflict. According to LSEG data, between 20:24 and 20:25 Beijing time on Friday, investors sold a combined 7,990 lots of Brent crude oil futures. At prevailing prices, these trades were worth approximately $760 million. Then around 20:45, Iran's foreign minister posted that the Strait of Hormuz was fully open to all commercial vessels for the remainder of the ceasefire, and within minutes, oil prices extended their intraday decline to as much as 11%. In recent months, multiple precisely timed large trades have raised concerns among US lawmakers and legal experts that decisions surrounding war and diplomacy may be giving certain traders an advantage in volatile and opaque derivatives markets. It had previously been reported that the US Commodity Futures Trading Commission was investigating a series of crude oil futures trades, including those on March 23 and April 7, all of which occurred shortly before Trump made major policy shifts regarding Iran and the war. The US Department of Energy (DOE) said on Friday local time that it had lent 26.03 million barrels of crude oil from the Strategic Petroleum Reserve to nine oil companies, marking the third batch of loans by the Trump administration aimed at curbing fuel prices that had surged since the US-Iran war began. The DOE said in a statement that companies receiving SPR loans included BP North America, ExxonMobil, and Marathon Petroleum. (Jin10 Data) As Middle Eastern supply was disrupted due to weeks of shipping disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz, Asian refiners turned to importing US crude oil, and US crude oil shipments through the Panama Canal approached a four-year high. According to data from shipping intelligence firm Kpler for the first half of April, US crude oil exports via this shortest route connecting the US Gulf Coast to Asia exceeded 200,000 barrels per day, approaching the highest level since July 2022. Sources said waiting times to enter the Panama Canal had extended significantly, prompting crude oil shippers to pay over $3 million for priority passage. Although the Panama Canal cannot accommodate the largest tankers, it provides a shortcut to the Far East. Traveling from the US Gulf Coast to Japan via the canal typically takes close to one month, while routing around the Cape of Good Hope in Africa could take nearly twice as long. Data showed that the vast majority of tankers heading to the Pacific in March and April carried US crude oil destined for Japan and South Korea. (Jin10 Data) In addition, four energy sources said Iraq had resumed southern oil exports after a disruption of over one month due to disturbances in the Strait of Hormuz, with a tanker having begun loading. (Jin10 Data) Note: NYMEX WTI crude oil May futures are subject to contract rollover, with the last floor trading completed at 2:30 on April 22 and the last electronic trading completed at 5:00 a.m. Please pay attention to the exchange's expiration and contract rollover announcements to manage risk. In addition, the expiration time for US crude oil contracts on some trading platforms is typically one day earlier than the official NYMEX schedule. Please take note. Recommended reading:

With the global new energy vehicle (NEV) market becomes increasingly competitive, BYD is rapidly expanding overseas, driven by the unique advantage of its plug-in hybrid electric vehicle (PHEV)-dedica...

Recently, data released by Thailand's Ministry of Industry showed that the number of Chinese automotive parts enterprises registered in Thailand reached 420 in Q1 2025, a threefold increase from 2020, with their share of foreign-funded enterprises surging from 7% to 22%. The Thailand Board of Investment (BOI) predicts that by 2030, the total investment by Chinese parts enterprises in Thailand will exceed $5 billion, driving the share of Thailand's new energy vehicle production from the current 5% to 30%. Dianchiwang (Battery Network) has noticed that in recent years, Chinese lithium battery enterprises have collectively moved "south" to Southeast Asia, accelerating their local factory construction and layout, with many enterprises establishing their first overseas factories in Southeast Asia.

Six departments, including the General Administration of Customs, have adjusted the management measures related to special customs supervision zones, bonded supervision areas, and off-site processing trade. It is mentioned that for goods subject to tariff hikes imposed for the purpose of collecting retaliatory tariffs, after relevant exclusion measures are applicable and the tariff hikes are excluded, they can be imported into existing bonded ledgers, unless the goods are also subject to other measures. For enterprises within special customs supervision zones that utilize tax-exempt equipment within the customs supervision period to undertake commissioned processing businesses for corn, wheat, rice, and cotton provided by enterprises outside the zones, when corn, wheat, rice, and cotton enter the zones from outside the domestic bonded areas, no export license verification is required. The announcement will come into effect on June 10, 2025. The full text of the announcement is as follows: To strengthen the management of goods subject to tariff rate quota management, trade remedy measures, suspension of tariff reduction obligations, tariff hikes, and tariff hikes imposed for the purpose of collecting retaliatory tariffs (hereinafter collectively referred to as the four categories of measures) in special customs supervision zones, bonded supervision areas, and off-site processing trade, with the approval of the State Council, the relevant matters are hereby announced as follows: I. Scope of Goods Covered by This Announcement (1) Goods subject to tariff rate quota management. According to the "Protocol on the Accession of the People's Republic of China to the World Trade Organization" and relevant regulations, wheat, corn, rice, cotton, sugar, wool, wool tops, and chemical fertilizers subject to tariff rate quota management in China. (2) Goods subject to trade remedy measures, suspension of tariff reduction obligations, tariff hikes, and tariff hikes imposed for the purpose of collecting retaliatory tariffs. The goods subject to the above-mentioned measures refer to goods subject to anti-dumping measures, countervailing measures, and safeguard measures, goods subject to the suspension of tariff reduction obligations and tariff hikes, and goods subject to tariff hikes imposed for the purpose of collecting retaliatory tariffs, in accordance with relevant laws and regulations of China. II. Relevant Management Measures (1) For bonded businesses conducted by enterprises in special customs supervision zones, bonded supervision areas, and off-site processing trade involving the import of goods under the four categories of measures from overseas, a special ledger shall be established. Goods under the four categories of measures imported from overseas that are not entered into the special ledger shall not be bonded. For goods subject to tariff hikes imposed for the purpose of collecting retaliatory tariffs, after relevant exclusion measures are applicable and the tariff hikes are excluded, they can be imported into existing bonded ledgers (hereinafter referred to as general ledgers), unless the goods are also subject to other measures. (2) Goods under the four categories of measures imported from overseas and their finished products after bonded processing can be transferred between special ledgers on a bonded basis, but they cannot be transferred to general ledgers on a bonded basis. Commodities subject to the four categories of measures imported from overseas that have not been processed may be sold domestically, in accordance with current regulations. Finished products made from bonded processing of commodities subject to the four categories of measures imported from overseas that have not undergone bonded circulation may be sold domestically. When sold domestically, customs duties shall be levied on all bonded imported materials and components, and import-link VAT and consumption tax shall be collected in accordance with current regulations, with the four categories of measures being implemented. If bonded circulation has occurred, domestic sales are not permitted, but the products may be exported overseas. (3) Non-four-category-measure commodities used in the processing of commodities subject to the four categories of measures imported from overseas shall be included in the management of special account books. Non-four-category-measure commodities that have not been fully utilized may be transferred to general account books through bonded circulation. The aforementioned non-four-category-measure commodities include commodities directly imported from overseas that are not subject to the four categories of measures, commodities that have been exported with tax refunds and purchased domestically, and commodities transferred from general account books to special account books. (4) Off-cuts, defective products, and by-products from processing trade under special account books shall not be sold domestically. They may be re-exported or destroyed in accordance with current regulations. (5) Special account books shall not be used for conducting commissioned processing businesses within the area. (6) Cross-border e-commerce commodities shall be managed under cross-border e-commerce account books in accordance with current regulations. However, cross-border e-commerce commodities subject to the four categories of measures shall not be transferred to general account books that are not of the cross-border e-commerce type. (7) For imported materials and components within a special customs supervision area that are not subject to the four categories of measures, but whose finished products after processing are subject to the four categories of measures, selective collection of customs duties shall not apply when sold domestically. Instead, import customs duties shall be levied based on the actual state of the goods (finished products), and import-link VAT and consumption tax shall be collected in accordance with current regulations, with the four categories of measures being implemented. III. Other Matters (1) For enterprises within a special customs supervision area that utilize tax-exempt equipment within the customs supervision period to undertake commissioned processing businesses provided by enterprises outside the area using corn, wheat, rice, and cotton, no export license verification is required when the corn, wheat, rice, and cotton enter the area from outside the domestic bonded area. (2) For commodities subject to the four categories of measures that have already entered special customs supervision areas, bonded supervision sites, and general account books for processing trade outside the area before the official implementation date of the announcement, current regulations shall apply. After the official implementation date of the announcement, if commodities are newly classified as subject to the four categories of measures due to policy adjustments and have already entered special customs supervision areas, bonded supervision sites, and processing trade account books outside the area, no adjustments to management measures will be made. (3) If the commodities managed under this announcement are subject to entry-exit prohibitive or restrictive management measures, they shall be implemented in accordance with current national regulations. (4) The special customs supervision areas referred to in this announcement include comprehensive bonded zones, bonded ports, bonded areas, and the Zhuhai Park of the Zhuhai-Macao Cross-border Industrial Zone. The bonded supervision sites referred to include bonded logistics centers, bonded warehouses, and export supervision warehouses. (V) This announcement shall come into force on June 10, 2025. In the event of any inconsistency between the existing regulations and this announcement, this announcement shall prevail. Joint Announcement No. 44 of 2024 by the General Administration of Customs, National Development and Reform Commission (NDRC), Ministry of Finance, Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs, Ministry of Commerce, and State Taxation Administration (Announcement on Adjusting the Management Measures for Sugar in Special Customs Supervision Zones and Processing Trade Outside These Zones) is hereby abolished. It is hereby announced. General Administration of Customs, National Development and Reform Commission, Ministry of Finance Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs, Ministry of Commerce, State Taxation Administration May 9, 2025

The combination of these factors has driven the price of low-sulphur petroleum coke from a decline to an increase. Especially by Q1 2025, the concentrated stockpiling during the Chinese New Year holiday, coupled with policy disruptions, amplified market expectations, pushing the price of low-sulphur petroleum coke to rise rapidly. In 2024, the prices of medium and high-sulphur petroleum coke mainly fluctuated, but after entering 2025, the prices surged quickly. SMM analysis: In 2024, the prices of medium and high-sulphur petroleum coke in Shandong experienced minor fluctuations. In Q1, the anode market improved, with active trading and enthusiastic procurement by downstream carbon enterprises, leading to a slight price increase. In Q2, increased refinery maintenance reduced supply, and just-in-time procurement supported a steady, slight price rise. However, as procurement sentiment cooled, prices showed a downward trend. In September, poor profitability at local refineries led to higher sulfur content in products, and some enterprises halted operations for maintenance, causing a shortage of medium-sulphur petroleum coke and a subsequent price increase. High-sulphur petroleum coke saw a slight price increase in Q1 driven by market sentiment, followed by a fluctuating downward trend. Entering 2025, due to increased raw material costs for refineries, some refineries, especially those in Shandong, reduced production. Combined with the concentrated stockpiling by downstream prebaked anode enterprises during the Chinese New Year holiday, petroleum coke prices experienced explosive growth. The prices of calcined petroleum coke and prebaked anode also rose rapidly with the increase in raw material petroleum coke prices. By April, the procurement price of prebaked anode from benchmark enterprises had risen to 5,205 yuan/mt, a 29% increase from the beginning of the year. 2025 Petroleum Coke Price Forecast. Factors Influencing Petroleum Coke Prices in 2025. Macro and Policy Aspects. 1. Import Tariff Adjustments. Starting from January 2025, the import tariff rate for fuel oil increased from 1% to 3%, and the fuel oil consumption tax deduction ratio in Shandong was significantly reduced from full deduction to a range of 50-60%. From April 12, 2025, a 125% tariff was imposed on all imported goods originating from the US, raising the import tariff from 3% to 128%. 2. Energy Conservation and Carbon Reduction Policies. The "dual carbon" goals have driven environmental upgrades and tax standardization, increasing environmental and compliance requirements for local refineries. Shandong Province plans to reduce the crude oil processing capacity of the local refining industry from 130 million mt/year to around 90 million mt/year by 2025, a 30% reduction, by eliminating outdated capacity through consolidation. In 2024, multiple national departments required the elimination of atmospheric and vacuum distillation units with a capacity of 2 million mt/year or less, affecting over 20% of such units in Shandong. Fundamental Aspects. 3. Domestic Petroleum Coke Supply. In 2025, there are no plans for new delayed coking units domestically. Frequent shutdowns and maintenance of delayed coking units in refineries throughout the year, with a significant increase in maintenance losses from April to May, coupled with the impact of consumption tax on profit margins, have led to a decline in the capacity utilization rate of delayed coking. Considering the above, domestic petroleum coke supply is expected to decrease in 2025. 4. Petroleum Coke Import Situation. The US is the largest source of petroleum coke imports for China. The escalating import tariffs on US coke have significantly increased costs, and the total import volume of US petroleum coke is expected to decrease by 30-40%. Overall, petroleum coke imports in 2025 are expected to increase YoY, but the growth will be limited, and the tight supply situation of petroleum coke is unlikely to change. 5. Domestic Petroleum Coke Demand. The steady increase in demand from the aluminum industry provides stable support for petroleum coke demand. The rapidly growing demand in emerging fields such as anode materials and PV polysilicon in the new energy sector has become a significant driver of petroleum coke demand. However, demand in some traditional industries, such as glass, is shrinking, and demand in the silicon metal industry remains mediocre. The market demand structure for petroleum coke is continuously reshaping, with the proportion of new energy-related fields increasing. Macro fundamentals favor a rise in petroleum coke prices, and the price center of petroleum coke is expected to shift significantly upward in 2025. SMM analysis: Overall, the tight supply-demand situation for petroleum coke is unlikely to ease in the short term, and prices are likely to rise. From April, the expectation of import contraction, combined with the concentrated maintenance period for domestic refineries, has already led to an upward trend in prices. In the medium and long term, the limited new domestic petroleum coke capacity and the expected exit of local refining capacity will exacerbate the supply-demand imbalance, increasing reliance on imports. Import obstacles or cost increases will significantly drive up petroleum coke prices. However, the price trend also faces some uncertainties. If the macroeconomic situation recovers slowly, the recovery of end-use consumption demand by physical enterprises and industries may take longer, potentially limiting price increases. Changes in the coal market and related policies could also indirectly affect petroleum coke prices. Click to view the AICE 2025 SMM (20th) Aluminum Industry Conference and Aluminum Industry Expo Special Report.