In January 2026, the European Union and India reached a historic Free Trade Agreement (FTA), with the elimination of steel tariffs of up to 22% becoming a major market focus. However, clearing the policy fog of "bilateral exemptions" and analyzing actual export and carbon emission data reveals that the steel industry faces a highly asymmetric trade reshaping. This seemingly fair reduction is actually Europe trading a "capped" ticket for India's "uncapped" massive incremental market.

At the Indonesia Critical Minerals Conference & Expo 2025 - Tin Session, Stephanus Paulus Lumintang, CEO of Jakarta Futures Exchange (JFX), shared insights on the topic of "The Future Development of Indonesia's Tin Industry Policy."

Amidst a backdrop of consistently low gross profit margins hovering around 2%, Xiamen Xiangyu (600057.SH)'s shipbuilding segment has garnered significant investor attention due to its relatively high profitability. At the performance briefing held today, Liao Jie, the board secretary of Xiamen Xiangyu, stated that as of the end of May 2025, the company had 88 orders on hand, including 46 63,500 DWT bulk carriers and 25 stainless steel chemical tankers, with production schedules extending to 2029. The company has recently secured new orders for two 210,000 DWT Newcastlemax bulk carriers, marking a breakthrough in large bulk carrier orders. Regarding deep-sea equipment, Liao Jie mentioned that this year, the company has signed a construction contract with Zhongtian Technology Group's Shanghai Yuanwei Construction Engineering Co., Ltd. for a 16,000-ton submarine cable-laying vessel, which is currently the largest self-propelled, purely electric-driven cable-laying vessel in China. Xiamen Xiangyu is a major commodity supply chain service provider. Due to the nature of the industry, its overall gross profit margin is relatively low. According to Choice data, the company's gross profit margins for commodity trading and logistics services from 2022 to 2024 were 1.90%, 1.53%, and 1.88%, respectively. The company's shipbuilding business has experienced rapid growth in recent years. The company began disclosing detailed data in its annual financial reports from 2023. In 2023 and 2024, it achieved revenues of 4.737 billion yuan and 5.9 billion yuan, with YoY growth rates of 42.62% and 24.76%, respectively, and gross profit margins of 22.56% and 18.13%, respectively. The company stated in the investor relations activity record released on April 22 that it had previously acquired the core assets of Jiangsu Hongqiang Shipbuilding Heavy Industry Co., Ltd. through asset auctions and expected to resume production by mid-2025. Combining this with the company's 2024 financial report information, it is anticipated that upon commencement of production, the company's overall shipbuilding capacity will increase by 40%-50%. It is worth mentioning that when Chairman Wu Jie discussed industry development trends, he noted that in recent years, global commodity price fluctuations have intensified. Top-tier enterprises, relying on their advantages in resources, services, and risk control, have actively expanded their channel networks, seized more market share, and demonstrated significant counter-cyclical expansion capabilities. According to cargo volume calculations, the market share of China's top five major commodity supply chain enterprises (CR5) increased from 4.81% in 2021 to 5.26% in 2024 (estimated). In terms of performance, Xiamen Xiangyu achieved revenues of 366.671 billion yuan and 97.135 billion yuan in 2024 and Q1 2025, respectively, with YoY changes of -20.12% and -7.11%. Net profits for the same periods were 1.419 billion yuan and 509 million yuan, respectively, with YoY changes of -9.86% and 24.88%.

On the 28th local time, OPEC+ held an online meeting. Early this morning, according to the latest news from Bloomberg, based on the statement released after the meeting, OPEC+ has agreed to use the 2025 oil production level as the benchmark for 2027. Meanwhile, OPEC+ will authorize the OPEC Secretariat to develop a mechanism to assess the maximum sustainable production capacity of participating countries, which will serve as a reference for the 2027 production benchmark. The next Joint Ministerial Monitoring Committee (JMMC) meeting of OPEC+ will be held on November 30th. OPEC+ will also hold another round of negotiations this Saturday, when it may decide whether to increase production in July. Representatives said that the eight OPEC+ member countries attending the meeting on Saturday may agree to increase daily production by 411,000 barrels in July, in line with the production increases in May and June. In addition, according to CCTV News, on the 28th local time, US President Trump stated that he had warned Israel to refrain from attacking Iran for the time being, so that the US government could have more time to promote a new nuclear agreement with Iran. Trump said he believed that Iran wanted to reach an agreement, which would "save many lives," and that the agreement could be reached "within the next few weeks." Trump also expressed his desire to bring inspectors to Iran. Overnight and into the early morning, international oil prices continued to rise. WTI crude oil futures rose by 2.5% to $62.41 per barrel, while Brent crude oil futures rose by 2% to $64.85 per barrel. At the close, WTI crude oil futures closed up 1.56% at $61.84 per barrel. Brent crude oil futures closed up 1.26% at $64.90 per barrel. US Fed releases minutes of May interest rate-setting meeting According to CCTV News, on May 28th local time, the US Fed released the minutes of the Federal Open Market Committee's meeting held from May 6th to 7th. The minutes showed that the Fed agreed to maintain the target range for the federal funds rate between 4.25% and 4.5%. Participants unanimously agreed that when considering the magnitude and timing of further adjustments to the target range for the federal funds rate, the Committee would carefully assess subsequent data, the changing economic outlook, and the balance of risks. The minutes stated that when assessing the appropriate stance of monetary policy, the Committee would continue to monitor the impact of future information on the economic outlook. Participants said that the assessment would take into account a wide range of information, including labour market conditions, inflationary pressures and inflation expectations, as well as financial and international developments. The Committee assessed that uncertainty regarding the economic outlook had further increased. Participants pointed out that if inflation persists while the outlook for economic growth and employment weakens, the Committee may face difficult trade-offs. The final magnitude of adjustments to government policies and their impact on the economy remain highly uncertain. Against this backdrop, all participants agreed that it was appropriate to maintain the target range for the federal funds rate at 4.25% to 4.5%. When considering the outlook for monetary policy, participants unanimously believed that, given the continued resilience of economic growth and the labour market, the Committee was well-positioned to wait for greater clarity on the outlook for inflation and economic activity. It was appropriate to adopt a cautious approach until the net economic effects of a series of government policy adjustments became clearer. Glencore makes significant purchases of Russian copper on the LME On Tuesday, Bloomberg reported market news that over the past three trading days, the London Metal Exchange (LME) Rotterdam warehouse had received delivery requests for approximately 15,000 mt of copper, leading to a significant decline in LME copper inventories. The report stated that Glencore, a global commodity giant, was the main trader behind these cargo pick-up applications and was planning to ship the copper to China. Notably, a substantial amount of Russian copper was involved in the transactions. It is understood that since the full-scale outbreak of the Russia-Ukraine conflict in 2022, escalating sanctions imposed by Europe and the US on Russia have led to a continuous accumulation of Russian copper inventories on the LME. In April 2024, the US and the UK announced new trading restrictions on Russian aluminum, copper, and nickel, including prohibiting the LME and the Chicago Mercantile Exchange (CME) from accepting newly produced Russian metals, while allowing eligible metal inventories. What are the implications? "After the US and the UK imposed sanctions on Russian copper in April 2024, Russian copper accounted for over 50% of the copper inventories in LME European warehouses, while China became one of the major export destinations for Russian copper following the sanctions," Zhang Weixin, a non-ferrous metals researcher at China Securities Futures, told reporters. After Russia and Ukraine resumed negotiations and proposed a ceasefire framework in May this year, Glencore may be betting on a relaxation of US and UK sanctions on Russia. Against the backdrop of warming spot demand in China, high premiums for imported copper, and the potential easing of US and UK sanctions on Russia, if Glencore resumes trading in Russian copper, it is expected to alleviate the "copper shortage" situation in the market. The reporter learned that in March this year, US copper prices surged to $11,633/mt, with a premium over LME copper reaching as high as $1,570/mt. Gu Fengda, chief analyst at Guosen Futures, stated that the high premium for US copper directly spurred a frenzy of "trans-oceanic arbitrage" and attracted a continuous influx of global spot copper into the US, further exacerbating the supply-demand mismatch across regions. Currently, the premium for US copper over LME copper stands at $683/mt, still significantly higher than the historical average for the same period. "With the favorable performance of copper fundamentals and the flow of some spot copper to the US, expectations of tight copper supply in markets outside the US continue to grow, which is also an important reason for Glencore's significant purchases of Russian copper this time."As spot liquidity tightens, LME copper's term structure may remain strong," said Xianfei Ji, a nonferrous metals researcher at Guotai Junan Futures. Data shows that since late April, LME copper inventories have continued to decline. This week, the destocking pace of LME copper inventories accelerated further, currently pulling back to 154,300 mt, hitting new periodic lows. Meanwhile, LME copper registered warrant quantities declined in tandem, now retreating to 83,125 mt. Cancelled warrants stood at 71,175 mt, with the ratio of cancelled warrants at 46.13%, remaining at elevated levels. Domestically, Weixin Zhang noted that due to the US "Section 232 investigation" on critical minerals, global commodity trading giants have diverted copper originally destined for Asia to the US, even relabeling Chilean Antofagasta copper ingots with US standards. This caused delays or cancellations of China's imported copper long-term contracts scheduled for April and May arrivals, driving up spot copper premiums in China and creating tight spot supply conditions. "Glencore's potential import activities could help alleviate China's copper supply tightness," said Yunfei Wang, head of the investment consulting department at ShanJin Futures. Currently, global copper cathode inventories are at median historical levels, while domestic copper inventories remain at historic lows. From price spread performance, the US copper premium over LME copper remains high, but with intensified price volatility, market divergence is gradually emerging. Policy-wise, after the US "reciprocal tariff" policy implementation was postponed, the market expected accelerated US copper scrap exports and increased raw material supply. However, domestic TC prices show no signs of raw material supply improvement yet. Inventory-wise, as of the week ending May 28, the US copper inventory buildup trend paused, while domestic social inventory also showed stabilization signs. Overall, Wang believes the US copper "arbitrage wave" may reverse at some point, creating downside potential for copper prices, though no reversal signals have appeared yet. Ji noted investors should closely monitor whether Trump will impose 25% additional tariffs on imported copper. If tariff hike expectations keep getting priced in, it may sustain high price spreads between US and LME copper, with South American and other regional supplies continuously diverted to the US, leaving other regions persistently undersupplied. "Short-term, under current spread structures, changed global copper trade flows seem only a matter of time," Wang stated. Medium and long-term, the copper market's focus remains on copper ore supply conditions and demand outlook.

As Trump's erratic tariff policies triggered a wave of US asset sell-offs last month, a fresh wave of "de-dollarization" is gaining momentum across Asia... Multiple signs indicate that demand for currency derivatives that bypass the US dollar is rising among banks and brokers in the region, as trade tensions add further urgency to the "de-dollarization" shift that has been underway for years. Companies are receiving an increasing number of trading requests, including numerous hedging transactions that avoid the US dollar, involving currencies such as the Chinese yuan, Hong Kong dollar, UAE dirham, and euro. Meanwhile, a notable phenomenon is emerging: demand for yuan-denominated loans is beginning to grow robustly. This quest for alternatives once again demonstrates that companies and investors are moving away from the US dollar, the global reserve currency. Earlier this week, Caixin reported that Stephen Jen, a renowned strategist known for the "Dollar Smile Theory," had warned that a potential "avalanche" of $2.5 trillion in sell-offs from Asia could erode the long-term appeal of the US dollar. Acceleration of De-dollarization In the past, even when transferring funds between two local currencies, the vast majority of foreign exchange transactions would use the US dollar. For example, an Egyptian company in need of Philippine pesos would typically first convert its local currency into US dollars and then use the received US dollars to purchase pesos. However, according to recent conversations industry insiders have had with employees of companies and financial institutions across Asia, attempts to bypass the US dollar have been heating up , with companies increasingly inclined to adopt strategies that skip the US dollar intermediary. "The increase in transactions between non-US dollar currencies is largely due to technological advancements and improved liquidity. Both parties to the transactions believe that the prices may not be worse than those using the US dollar, so trading volumes naturally increase," said Gene Ma, head of China research at the Institute of International Finance (IIF). A source from a commodity trading company in Singapore said that financial institutions in Europe and other regions are increasingly marketing yuan derivatives linked to the US dollar. Multiple sources said that the growing trade ties between mainland China, Indonesia, and the Gulf region are also stimulating demand for non-US dollar hedging. According to an executive at a foreign bank in Indonesia, the bank will establish a dedicated team in Jakarta this year to meet the growing demand from local clients for transactions between the Indonesian rupiah and the Chinese yuan. Clearly, this gradual shift away from the US dollar is eroding the global financial system that has historically relied on the US dollar as the primary settlement currency.Over the past few decades, the US dollar has been ubiquitous, from debt financing in emerging markets to trade settlement. It is estimated that the use of the US dollar as an intermediary currency accounts for approximately 13% of its daily trading volume. However, the global status of the US dollar had already been under threat long before Trump's unpredictable trade policies forced the market to thoroughly reconsider the dollar's position. China has been committed to promoting the internationalization of the renminbi (RMB) for many years, signing currency settlement agreements with countries such as Brazil and Indonesia to facilitate the global use of the RMB. The BRICS group, composed of emerging market countries, has also discussed the issue of de-dollarization. The outbreak of the Russia-Ukraine conflict in 2022 further sparked interest in "de-dollarization" among some countries, as unprecedented Western sanctions against Russia quickly raised questions about whether the US dollar had been weaponized. RMB Gains Popularity According to SWIFT data, the RMB accounted for approximately 4.1% of global payment shares in March, still significantly lower than the US dollar's 49% share. However, some of China's payments are processed through its self-built system, which is growing rapidly. As a wholesale payment system dedicated to cross-border RMB payment and clearing, the Cross-border Interbank Payment System (CIPS) has seen steady growth in business volume and a significant expansion in coverage since its launch in October 2015. As of the end of December 2024, its business had covered 185 countries and regions worldwide. In 2024, the amount of cross-border RMB payments processed reached 175 trillion yuan, up 43% YoY. In March, the proportion of RMB used by Chinese investors and trading companies in cross-border transactions reached a record high. According to data released by the State Administration of Foreign Exchange, the proportion of RMB used by Chinese individuals and entities in cross-border transactions in March was 54.3%, with a total amount reaching 724.9 billion US dollars. Chinese exporters are also accelerating the conversion of US dollars into RMB, reversing the previous trend where some exporters preferred to hold US dollars due to concerns about the weakening of the RMB exchange rate. According to industry-compiled data, China's exports to Southeast Asia grew by more than 80% in the five years ending March 2025, while exports to the UAE and Saudi Arabia more than doubled. This far exceeded the growth rate of China's exports to the US and the EU. Although the hedging costs for the RMB are generally higher than those for the US dollar, the low interest rates on related RMB loans mean that the total cost remains attractive to borrowers. Alicia Garcia Herrero, Chief Asia-Pacific Economist at Natixis, said, "The cost of RMB financing is only one-third of that of US dollar financing."However, she also mentioned that the yuan currently has certain limitations due to weak overseas liquidity. In any case, the tariff-related fluctuations in the US dollar clearly indicate that it is not only China and other major economies that are eroding the global status of the US dollar. Trump's trade policies, disregard for traditional practices, and persistent criticism of the US Fed have all reinforced market perceptions that the US dollar's dominance in the global economy is facing its greatest threat in decades. "Given the US dollar's extraordinary staying power, its position would seem to require a truly epoch-making shift in the international environment to be displaced. However, the risks of such a seismic change are mounting," wrote analysts including Oliver Harvey of Deutsche Bank in a recent report.

On April 22, at the CCIE 2025 SMM (20th) Copper Industry Conference & Copper Industry Expo – Electrical Power Transmission and Distribution Industry Forum, Dong Junhao, General Manager of the Market Development Department of World Copper Recycling Copper Digital Trading Center, shared his views on the topic of "Building a Copper Industry Service Ecosystem to Address Industry Pain Points" and made introduction to the business of World Copper Recycling Copper Digital Trading Center.