China's stainless steel futures gave back ground sharply in the first trading week after the May Day holiday, as a sudden easing of Middle East tensions deflated the risk premium that had carried prices to recent highs. With the cost-side narrative unwinding and physical demand showing little follow-through, the market is searching for a new floor

Risk appetite has improved notably in the market recently, and SHFE tin rode the momentum to rally sharply in succession. Futures prices have successfully breached the 400,000 mark, hitting a new high in over two months, with extremely strong performance. What factors are supporting the tin price rally that is in full swing? Can the bullish stance continue? Middle East Tensions Ease, Risk Appetite Recovers Since the sudden escalation of Middle East geopolitical tensions in late February, affected by changes in inflation expectations caused by wild swings in energy prices, global equities and most commodity prices have exhibited a seesaw effect with energy products. Recently, the Middle East situation has been rapidly evolving, market risk appetite has fluctuated accordingly, and SHFE tin futures—whose price movements have always been susceptible to sentiment—have seen significantly amplified fluctuations. During the holiday, the US pushed the so-called operation to clear stranded vessels in the Strait of Hormuz, US-Iran conflict escalated sharply, the ceasefire agreement was in jeopardy, and market risk appetite weakened at one point. However, after the holiday, positive news from US-Iran negotiations emerged repeatedly. US President Trump posted on social media on the evening of May 5 (Eastern Time), stating that the "Freedom Plan" to "clear" vessel passage through the Strait of Hormuz would be suspended in the short term. On May 6, Trump expressed optimism multiple times about reaching a deal with Iran, saying the US and Iran had "productive" dialogue over the past 24 hours and that a final agreement was "very likely." Additionally, according to multiple White House officials and informed sources, both sides are extremely close to reaching a one-page memorandum of understanding. Based on the current statements from both sides, hopes for ending the conflict are rising, energy prices have pulled back sharply, risk appetite has improved notably, providing fertile ground for tin price gains. Semiconductor Stocks Launch a Bull Feast, Optimism Spills Over It is currently earnings season for publicly listed firms. The latest quarterly results and outlooks from US chip giants have been quite impressive, with Intel, Micron, and others surging collectively, and the US Nasdaq index hitting new highs repeatedly. South Korea's two memory chip giants Samsung Electronics and SK Hynix have soared sharply, while A-share listed Cambricon touched a high of 1,966 yuan, reflecting the resonance between booming industry performance and macro tailwinds. Since tin is an indispensable material in chip manufacturing and packaging, against the backdrop of semiconductor stocks rallying collectively and the computing-power metal narrative continuing to unfold, demand expectations for the tin market are highly optimistic. Leading tin stocks surged sharply on the boost, and driven by futures-equity linkage sentiment, capital has flooded in. SHFE tin saw significant increases in open interest over two consecutive days while rising, and futures prices are now just one step away from the previous high. Demand Side Rich in Narratives, Social Inventory Running at Low Levels Returning to tin's own supply-demand fundamentals, structural tightness on the ore side continues to constrain tin ingot output, and policy uncertainties along with supply disruption news from major overseas producing regions frequently impact tin prices. Currently, Myanmar's production resumptions are progressing slower than expected, and with the rainy season approaching, production may remain constrained. Although Indonesia's export quotas have increased somewhat, policy remains unstable, and recently a phased supply gap has emerged due to export license renewal procedures. Customs data showed that tin ore imports exceeded 17,000 mt in each of the first three months of this year, all with significant YoY increases. China's refined tin output is in the ramp-up stage, and institutions will also successively release April production data soon, so supply recovery warrants continued attention. The tin market's demand side has relatively strong support, and under the computing-power metal concept, there are many tradeable themes that frequently provide upward momentum for tin prices. Since AI servers and other high-end chips require 3-5 times more tin solder than ordinary servers, the semiconductor industry's prosperity has become the main driver supporting tin price trends. Currently, the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index is at a high level of prosperity, having steadily broken through the 10,000-point mark, and global semiconductor sales also grew significantly in Q1, with tin solder demand expected to continue growing. NEV side, although growth has slowed down somewhat, NEV production and sales have rebounded quickly, and their tin consumption demand remains relatively stable. PV side, new PV installations are not expected to grow, but policy floor expectations exist. Meanwhile, traditional production and sales expectations for home appliances, consumer electronics, and other sectors are also relatively weak, and tin chemicals are unlikely to see much additional demand growth. During the traditional peak demand season of March-April, China's tin market performed moderately, with tin ingot social inventory declining to a nearly four-month low, reflecting seasonal destocking. However, with the recent sharp rally in tin prices, spot premiums for tin in China have narrowed significantly, and the sustainability of demand under high prices still warrants attention going forward. Overall, the recent tin price surge was truly a confluence of favorable timing, conditions, and sentiment—support from the macro front, sentiment, and supply-demand fundamentals were all indispensable. Currently, geopolitical tensions have eased, the constraint on risk assets has loosened, the prosperity of global semiconductor-related stocks continues, and optimistic sentiment still easily transmits to SHFE tin futures. The low open interest characteristic of SHFE tin also amplifies futures price fluctuations. However, it is worth noting that the Middle East situation is prone to reversals, and after the semiconductor sector has repeatedly hit new highs, one should also be wary of potential pullback risks—caution is advised before rushing to buy amid continuous price rises. (Webstock Inc.)

Editor's Note: During the Labour Day holiday when the Chinese market was closed, global macro developments, commodity markets, and ex-China policy dynamics continued to evolve, with multiple external factors potentially impacting post-holiday market performance. To help market participants accurately grasp market trends and conduct rational market analysis, SMM has systematically compiled key macro developments and major industry news during the holiday, along with a summary of this week's critical data and event periods, for industry reference. Internationally, geopolitical developments, energy landscape, ex-China monetary policy, and trade policy all saw significant changes. Geopolitical tensions resurfaced, intermittently disrupting global energy markets and briefly driving international oil prices into a rapid short-term rise. Major global central bank policies continued to diverge. The US Fed released its latest policy signal — New York Fed President Williams publicly stated on Monday that if inflation continues to pull back toward the 2% policy target, the US Fed will cut interest rates at an appropriate time. Meanwhile, the Reserve Bank of Australia announced its third consecutive rate hike on Tuesday, raising the cash rate from 4.1% to 4.35%, officially reversing its previous accommodative monetary policy cycle, further widening the divergence in global liquidity landscape. On the energy export front, according to Bloomberg on May 4, US crude oil exports continued to climb over the past nine weeks, with cumulative exports exceeding 250 million barrels, surpassing Saudi Arabia to reclaim the position of the world's largest crude oil exporter. Global trade and foreign exchange markets also saw notable shifts. In trade, according to CCTV News, on May 1 local time, US President Trump stated that due to the EU's failure to fulfill a previously agreed trade deal, the US would impose additional tariffs on automobiles and trucks imported from the EU next week, raising the rate to 25% — subsequent changes in the global trade landscape warrant continued attention. In the foreign exchange market, Japan intervened in the currency market three times between April 30 and May 4. A relevant official from Japan's Ministry of Finance simultaneously interpreted related IMF rules, explicitly classifying the three-day intervention operations as a single operation, with a clear intent to stabilize the yen exchange rate. On industrial policy, Indonesia introduced resource export control measures, planning to levy export taxes and windfall taxes on coal and nickel products, which may impact global energy and non-ferrous metal supply chains, pricing systems, and related commodity markets. This week, major economic data in and outside China will be released in quick succession. Highly watched data including China's foreign exchange reserves, gold reserves data, China's import and export data (TBD), and US April non-farm payrolls data will be published sequentially. Meanwhile, SMM will comprehensively review price movements across metal categories during the holiday, and combining the latest variables in and outside China, is expected to publish post-holiday market trend outlooks to provide professional reference for industry trading, production, and strategic planning. Stay tuned. ※Holiday Macro News ►Domestic [Baiyun Airport Port Sees Record-High Canton Fair Foreign Arrivals Exceeding 540,000] On the last day of the Labour Day holiday, coinciding with the closing of the 139th Canton Fair, reporters learned from the Baiyun Border Inspection Station that since the opening of this Canton Fair, as of 0:00 on May 5, Baiyun Airport port handled over 1.14 million inbound and outbound passengers, up 14.5% YoY. Foreign business travelers became the core driver of port passenger flow growth, with inbound and outbound foreigners exceeding 540,000, up 20.8% YoY, setting a new historical record for port passenger flow during the same Canton Fair period. (CCTV News) [National Railways Carried Over 100 Million Passengers Cumulatively During Labour Day Holiday] According to China State Railway Group Co., Ltd., national railways carried 20.383 million passengers on May 4. Since the launch of Labour Day holiday transport on April 29, national railways have cumulatively carried 117 million passengers, with transport operations safe, stable, and orderly. On May 5, return passenger flows continue to rise, with national railways expected to carry 23 million passengers and 2,225 additional passenger trains planned. (CCTV News) [China Bulk Commodity Price Index at 132.1 Points in April, Up 20.2% YoY] The China Federation of Logistics and Purchasing released the April China Bulk Commodity Price Index on May 5. The index stood at 132.1 points in April, up 1.7% MoM and up 20.2% YoY. Among the 50 bulk commodities under key monitoring by the federation, 38 saw MoM price increases in April. Among them, paraxylene, methanol, and polypropylene led the gains, up 22.4%, 14.5%, and 11.8% MoM respectively. ►Overseas [US Illegal Tariff Refunds Delayed by One Day, Earliest Distribution Starting May 12] US Customs and Border Protection (CBP) stated that the first batch of electronic refunds for tariffs ruled illegal by the US Supreme Court is expected to begin distribution no earlier than May 12. The US Court of International Trade had previously expected refunds to start on May 11, but this has been delayed by one day for undisclosed reasons. (CCTV News) [Senior Iranian Commander: Iran Is Controlling the Strait of Hormuz, US Cannot Reverse the Current Situation] Senior commander of Iran's Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps Yadollah Javani confirmed in an interview on May 4 that Iran is controlling the Strait of Hormuz, that any passing vessel must obtain Iranian permission to ensure safe passage, and that hostile forces' ships attempting forced transit will be dealt with resolutely. Yadollah Javani dismissed US President Trump's claim of "clearing" the strait's shipping lanes for humanitarian reasons as a lie, stating that Iran would prevail if the confrontation escalated. He said the US could never restore the situation to before February 28, nor reverse the current state of affairs. (CCTV News) [Trump refuses to confirm whether US-Iran ceasefire agreement remains in effect] On May 4, US President Trump refused to clarify whether the ceasefire agreement between the US and Iran remained in effect during an interview. When asked whether the ceasefire had ended and whether military strikes could resume, Trump said: "I can't tell you that. If I answered, you'd say this guy isn't smart enough to be president." Earlier that day, Trump warned in an interview that if Iran attempted to attack US ships in the Strait of Hormuz or the Persian Gulf, they "will be totally destroyed." However, he subsequently stated that from a military standpoint, the conflict with Iran was "essentially over." (CCTV) [Qatar condemns attack on UAE oil tanker in Strait of Hormuz] Qatar's Ministry of Foreign Affairs issued a statement on the 4th, strongly condemning a drone attack on an oil tanker operated by Abu Dhabi National Oil Company of the UAE while passing through the Strait of Hormuz, calling it a serious violation of international law and the principle of freedom of navigation. The statement said Qatar firmly opposes using the Strait of Hormuz as a pressure tool, called for the unconditional reopening of the strait, and emphasized that freedom of navigation through this vital waterway is an established principle that cannot be compromised. The statement noted that the continued closure of the strait would jeopardize the vital interests of countries in the region. Qatar's Ministry of Foreign Affairs reaffirmed its support for all measures taken by the UAE to protect its assets. (Xinhua) [US Fed "No. 3" speaks: Interest rate cuts will eventually come if inflation pulls back, but timing has been forced to delay] New York Fed President Williams publicly stated on Monday that as long as inflation pulls back toward the US Fed's 2% target as expected, the US Fed will eventually need to cut interest rates . However, due to inflation running higher than expectations this year, the timing of interest rate cuts has been forced to delay, though the overall policy direction has not fundamentally changed. Williams told reporters after delivering a speech in New York on Monday: "As inflation moves lower, we will eventually need to cut interest rates at some point to match fundamentals. Inflation has been higher than previously expected this year, and in my view, this only delays the timing of rate cuts and does not change the overall policy logic." Last week, the US Fed decided to keep the benchmark interest rate unchanged, but internal policy disagreements became prominent, with three officials opposing the easing bias implied in the meeting statement, preferring more neutral language to release signals that rates could move either up or down going forward. Regarding the controversial wording, Williams was clear in his stance: he fully endorsed the current statement's language, believing that based on day-to-day economic data, there was no sufficient reason to support a rate hike in the short term. [IMF Chief Warns: Prolonged Middle East Conflict Could Trigger More Severe Inflation and Growth Shocks] The head of the International Monetary Fund (IMF) warned that inflation has begun to intensify, and if the Middle East war continues into 2027 with oil prices rising to around $125 per barrel, the global economy could face a "worse scenario." IMF Managing Director Georgieva stated that the continuation of the war means the organization's previous assumption of only a mild slowdown in global economic growth and only a slight edge up in prices no longer holds. Therefore, the "adverse scenario" set by the IMF has effectively begun to materialize. Speaking at a conference hosted by the Milken Institute, Georgieva noted that long-term inflation expectations remain anchored for now and financial conditions have not yet tightened, but this could change if the war persists. [RBA Raises Rates by 25 Basis Points as Expected — Entering Wait-and-See Mode After "Triple Hike"?] The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) announced its third consecutive rate hike on Tuesday, raising the cash rate from 4.1% to 4.35%, completely reversing last year's monetary easing cycle. The move underscored the central bank's determination to suppress stubborn inflation, making it an outlier among major global central banks — decisively embarking on a new tightening cycle while the US-Iran conflict fueled uncertainty and many central banks chose to stand pat. The RBA's nine-member policy committee approved the rate hike with a vote of 8 in favor and 1 against . RBA Governor Michele Bullock will hold a press conference at 1:30 PM Beijing time to explain the policy decision. The committee emphasized in its statement: "After three rate hikes, monetary policy now has sufficient room to respond to changing conditions , and the committee will focus on its dual mandate of price stability and full employment, taking all necessary measures to achieve its objectives." [Japan Intervened to Boost Yen on "3 Consecutive Days" During Holiday, Claims It "Counts as 1" Under IMF Rule of "Maximum 3 Interventions Within 6 Months"] Japan intervened in the foreign exchange market on three consecutive days during Golden Week, but Japanese officials promptly cited IMF rules stating that the three actions "count as one" — a statement reflecting the government's careful calculation of intervention frequency. A Ministry of Finance official told reporters on May 5 that under relevant IMF regulations, foreign exchange market interventions over three consecutive business days are considered a "single action."The official made the above remarks while accompanying Finance Minister Satsuki Katayama at an international conference held in Samarkand, Uzbekistan. By this calculation, the three interventions on April 30, May 2 (Friday), and May 4 (Monday) were counted as one combined action. The official added that even when Japan was on public holiday, interventions could still be counted as long as global markets were open; May 4 was therefore recognized as the last of three consecutive business days starting from April 30. This round of intervention began on April 30, triggered when USD/JPY broke above 160.72. According to Bloomberg's analysis, authorities deployed approximately $34.5 billion that day to support the yen, and the exchange rate rebounded to around 155. However, the effectiveness of the subsequent two interventions diminished notably—the yen briefly strengthened after each intervention before pulling back again. The two subsequent interventions reportedly cost a combined approximately $20 billion. In total, the three interventions in this round are estimated to have exceeded $54 billion in scale. ※Industry News and Corporate Developments [Indonesia Plans to Impose Export and Windfall Taxes on Coal and Nickel to Ease Subsidy Pressure] Indonesia plans to impose export taxes and windfall taxes on coal and nickel as one of the measures to offset the growing subsidy costs in the national budget. Indonesia's Finance Minister Purbaya Yudhi Sadewa stated that the proposed measures are still under discussion with the Ministry of Energy and Mineral Resources. "Discussions with the Energy Ministry are ongoing, but what is clear is that the related revenue will be sufficient to help bridge the subsidy gap." Purbaya noted that coal and nickel exports had not previously been subject to export taxes, creating regulatory loopholes that could foster under-invoicing and smuggling, while also limiting customs authorities' ability to inspect goods before shipment. The implementation of export taxes is expected to grant the Directorate General of Customs and Excise (DJBC) greater authority to conduct inspections before goods are exported, thereby helping to close tax loopholes and prevent fiscal leakage. (Wallstreetcn) [250 Million Barrels of Crude Oil Shipped Outside China, US Inventory Falls for Four Consecutive Weeks—How Long Can the World's "Last Supplier" Hold Out?] Over the past nine weeks, a large number of tankers sailed intensively toward the US, loading up along the coast of Alaska and the Gulf of Mexico before heading to destinations such as Japan, Thailand, and even Australia. During this period, the US cumulatively exported over 250 million barrels of crude oil outside China, once again surpassing Saudi Arabia to become the world's largest crude oil exporter. Against the backdrop of the Strait of Hormuz nearing shutdown and Middle Eastern supply disruptions, the US has effectively assumed the role of a critical global energy source. However, this rapid surge in export volume also exposed potential risks. US domestic inventory has been declining notably, with total crude oil and refined product reserves falling for four consecutive weeks and dropping below historical averages, while the production side also faced pressure to maintain output. (Jin Shi Data) [Trump: US Is Taking "Hundreds of Millions of Barrels of Oil" from Venezuela] On May 4, US President Trump spoke at a small business summit on the topic of energy cooperation with Venezuela. Trump stated that the US currently has a "good relationship" with Venezuela and said related actions were "going well." He noted that major energy enterprises had begun entering Venezuela to develop resources. On energy cooperation, Trump said the US was obtaining "hundreds of millions of barrels of oil" from Venezuela and shipping them to US regions including Houston for refining, describing the bilateral relationship as "almost like a partnership." He also emphasized that US oil and natural gas production had reached record highs. (Wallstreetcn) [Trump: Will Impose 25% Tariff on EU Cars and Trucks Exported to the US Next Week] According to CCTV News, on May 1 local time, US President Trump stated that because the EU had not fulfilled the trade agreement already reached between the two sides, the US would impose additional tariffs on cars and trucks imported from the EU next week, raising the rate to 25%. Trump said that if relevant enterprises set up factories and produced in the US, they could be exempt from tariffs. [Hainan LNG Phase II Project Achieved Major Milestone, Expected to Be Fully Completed by 2027] According to PipeChina, a major oil and gas infrastructure project in China — the Hainan LNG Phase II Project — completed the 821-mt dome air-raising operation for Tank No. 3, marking a major milestone for the project. The Hainan LNG receiving terminal Phase I project has construction completed and commissioned 2 LNG storage tanks of 160,000 m³ each, while the Phase II project is constructing 3 new prestressed concrete full-containment LNG storage tanks of 220,000 m³ each. Currently, the overall progress of the Phase II project is approaching 50%, and it is expected to be fully completed by 2027. Once completed, it will add 400 million m³ of gas storage capacity, doubling the peak shaving capacity, and significantly enhancing emergency peak shaving and secure supply capabilities for the entire Hainan Island and the South China coastal region. (CCTV News) [Dongyang Guangming: Subsidiary Signs Computing Power Service Procurement Framework Contract with Estimated Total Value of 16 Billion to 19 Billion Yuan] Dongyang Guangming announced that its subsidiary Dongguan Dongyang Guang Cloud Computing Technology Co., Ltd. signed a Computing Power Service Procurement Framework Contract with a certain Enterprise A, with an estimated total contract value ranging from 16 billion yuan to 19 billion yuan (tax inclusive). The contract term is 60 months after order acceptance, with service fees paid monthly. This cooperation aims to deepen the company's presence in AI computing power and high performance server supporting services, but faces multiple uncertainties including policy and regulatory risks, performance capability, and funding, with uncertain impact on the company's future performance. ※Weekly Macro Preview May 6 Data to be released include China's April RatingDog Services PMI, France's March industrial output MoM, France's April Services PMI final, Germany's April Services PMI final, Eurozone April Services PMI final, UK April Services PMI final, Eurozone March PPI MoM, US April ADP employment, and US April Global Supply Chain Pressure Index. Also notable: 2028 FOMC voter and St. Louis Fed President Musalem will speak on the economic outlook and monetary policy. May 7 Data to be released include France's March trade balance, Switzerland's April seasonally adjusted unemployment rate, Eurozone March retail sales MoM, US April Challenger enterprise layoffs, US initial jobless claims for the week ending May 2, US March construction spending MoM, US April New York Fed 1-year inflation expectations, and China's April foreign exchange reserves. Also notable: 2027 FOMC voter and Chicago Fed President Goolsbee will participate in a panel discussion at a conference. May 8 Data to be released include Germany's March seasonally adjusted industrial output MoM, Germany's March seasonally adjusted trade balance, UK April Halifax seasonally adjusted house price index MoM, Switzerland's April consumer confidence index, Canada's April employment, US April unemployment rate, US April seasonally adjusted nonfarm payrolls, US April average hourly earnings YoY, US April average hourly earnings MoM, US May 1-year inflation expectations preliminary, US May University of Michigan consumer sentiment index preliminary, and US March wholesale sales MoM. Also notable: 2026 FOMC voter and Cleveland Fed President Hammack will speak; FOMC permanent voter and New York Fed President Williams will speak; China's refined oil products will enter a new price adjustment window. May 9 Data to be released include China's April trade balance in US dollar terms (TBD) and China's April trade balance (TBD). Also notable: Chicago Fed President Goolsbee and San Francisco Fed President Daly will participate in a panel discussion at the Hoover Institution's 2026 Monetary Policy Conference.

Vale reported first-quarter net revenue of $9.26 billion, up 14% year on year, though slightly below analysts’ forecast of $9.37 billion. The company said higher sales volumes across its key products, including iron ore, copper, and nickel, were among the main drivers of revenue growth. The figures suggest a clear recovery in Vale’s core business revenue as commodity prices improved.

The NBS Service Industry Survey Center and the China Federation of Logistics and Purchasing released China's PMI for April today. The manufacturing PMI continued to operate in expansion territory after rebounding into expansion territory in March, indicating that the manufacturing sector maintained a generally stable level of prosperity and continued its favorable operating trend. In April, China's manufacturing PMI was 50.3%, down 0.1 percentage points MoM, operating in expansion territory for the second consecutive month. China's PMI Performance in April 2026 I. China's Manufacturing PMI Performance In April, the manufacturing PMI stood at 50.3%, down 0.1 percentage points from the previous month, with the manufacturing prosperity level remaining generally stable. By enterprise size, the PMI for large enterprises was 50.2%, down 1.4 percentage points MoM but still above the threshold; the PMIs for medium and small enterprises were 50.5% and 50.1% respectively, up 1.5 and 0.8 percentage points MoM, both above the threshold. By sub-indices, among the five sub-indices constituting the manufacturing PMI, the production index and new orders index were both above the threshold, while the raw material inventory index, employment index, and supplier delivery time index were all below the threshold. The production index was 51.5%, up 0.1 percentage points MoM, indicating that manufacturing production activity accelerated somewhat. The new orders index was 50.6%, down 1 percentage points MoM but still above the threshold, indicating that manufacturing market demand maintained expansion. The raw material inventory index was 49.3%, up 1.6 percentage points MoM, indicating that the decline in major raw material inventory in manufacturing narrowed significantly. The employment index was 48.8%, up 0.2 percentage points MoM, indicating a rebound in the employment prosperity level of manufacturing enterprises. The supplier delivery time index was 49.5%, unchanged from the previous month and below the threshold, indicating that delivery times of raw material suppliers in manufacturing continued to lengthen MoM. II. China's Non-Manufacturing PMI Performance In April, the non-manufacturing business activity index was 49.4%, down 0.7 percentage points from the previous month, with the non-manufacturing prosperity level declining somewhat. By sector, the construction business activity index was 48.0%, down 1.3 percentage points MoM; the services business activity index was 49.6%, down 0.6 percentage points MoM. Within the services sector, industries such as railway transportation, postal services, and telecommunications, broadcasting, television, and satellite transmission services all had business activity indices above the relatively high prosperity zone of 55.0%; industries such as wholesale, retail, and resident services all had business activity indices below the threshold. The new orders index was 44.3%, down 0.7 percentage points MoM, indicating a decline in non-manufacturing market demand. By sector, the construction new orders index was 41.6%, down 1.9 percentage points MoM; the services new orders index was 44.8%, down 0.5 percentage points MoM. The input price index was 51.7%, down 0.6 percentage points MoM but still above the critical point, indicating that input prices for non-manufacturing business activities continued to rise overall. By sector, the construction input price index was 54.9%, up 2.2 percentage points MoM; the services input price index was 51.2%, down 1 percentage points MoM. The selling price index was 48.1%, down 1.8 percentage points MoM, indicating an overall decline in non-manufacturing enterprise selling prices. By sector, the construction selling price index was 49.0%, down 0.3 percentage points MoM; the services selling price index was 47.9%, down 2.1 percentage points MoM. The employment index was 45.5%, up 0.3 percentage points MoM, indicating improved employment conditions in non-manufacturing enterprises. By sector, the construction employment index was 39.6%, up 0.5 percentage points MoM; the services employment index was 46.5%, up 0.3 percentage points MoM. The business activity expectations index was 54.7%, up 0.5 percentage points MoM, indicating strengthened confidence among non-manufacturing enterprises in market development. By sector, the construction business activity expectations index was 50.5%, unchanged MoM; the services business activity expectations index was 55.4%, up 0.6 percentage points MoM. III. China Composite PMI Output Index In April, the composite PMI output index was 50.1%, down 0.4 percentage points MoM but above the critical point, indicating that China's enterprise production and business activities continued to expand overall. Manufacturing PMI Remained in Expansion Territory in April — Interpretation of China's April 2026 PMI by Huo Lihui, Chief Statistician of the NBS Service Industry Survey Center On April 30, 2026, the NBS Service Industry Survey Center and the China Federation of Logistics and Purchasing released China's PMI. Huo Lihui, Chief Statistician of the NBS Service Industry Survey Center, provided an interpretation. In April, the manufacturing PMI was 50.3%, slightly lower than the previous month by 0.1 percentage points, remaining in expansion territory; the non-manufacturing business activity index was 49.4%, down 0.7 percentage points MoM; the composite PMI output index was 50.1%, down 0.4 percentage points MoM but still above the critical point, with China's overall economic output maintaining expansion. I. Manufacturing PMI Remained above the Critical Point for Two Consecutive Months In April, the manufacturing PMI was 50.3%, with the overall prosperity level remaining stable and the manufacturing sector sustaining a sound operating trend. (I) Both production and demand continued to expand. The production index was 51.5% and the new orders index was 50.6%, both remaining above the critical point, indicating that manufacturing production and market demand stayed in expansion. By industry, the production and new orders indices for railway, shipbuilding, aerospace equipment, electrical machinery and equipment, and computer, communication and electronic equipment sectors were all at or above 53.0%, with production and demand in these industries being released at a faster pace; the two indices for petroleum, coal and other fuel processing, and chemical raw materials and chemical products sectors were both below the critical point, indicating relatively weak market activity. Driven by continued expansion in production and demand, enterprise purchase willingness further strengthened, with the purchasing volume index at 51.1%, up 0.2 percentage points from the previous month. (II) PMIs for large, medium and small enterprises all remained in expansion territory. The PMI for large enterprises was 50.2%, staying above the critical point for five consecutive months; PMIs for medium and small enterprises were 50.5% and 50.1% respectively, up 1.5 and 0.8 percentage points from the previous month, both rising into expansion territory with prosperity levels rebounding notably. (III) Three key industries sustained expansion. PMIs for high-tech manufacturing and equipment manufacturing were 52.2% and 51.8% respectively, up 0.1 and 0.3 percentage points from the previous month, with these industries maintaining a positive development trend; the PMI for consumer goods industries was 50.7%, remaining in expansion territory. The PMI for high energy-consuming industries was 47.9%, down 1 percentage point from the previous month, with the prosperity level pulling back. (IV) Price indices fluctuated at highs. Affected by recent high-level fluctuations in some bulk commodity prices, the raw material purchase price index and ex-factory price index were 63.7% and 55.1% respectively, remaining at highs in recent years, with the overall price level in the manufacturing market rising notably. By industry, both price indices for petroleum, coal and other fuel processing, and chemical raw materials and chemical products sectors remained above 70.0% for two consecutive months, with raw material procurement prices and product selling prices in these industries continuing to rise. (V) Market expectations continued to strengthen. The business activity expectations index was 54.5%, up 1.1 percentage points from the previous month, rebounding for three consecutive months, indicating that manufacturing enterprises' confidence in near-term market development continued to strengthen. By industry, the business activity expectations indices for food, beverages and refined tea, automobile, and railway, shipbuilding and aerospace equipment sectors were all in the relatively high prosperity zone above 58.0%, with enterprises in these industries being more optimistic about industry development. II. Non-Manufacturing Business Activity Index Pulled Back In April, the non-manufacturing business activity index was 49.4%, down 0.7 percentage points from the previous month, indicating a pullback in non-manufacturing prosperity. (1) Service sector prosperity pulled back. The service sector business activity index was 49.6%, down 0.6 percentage points from the previous month. By industry, the business activity indices for railway transportation, postal services, and telecommunications, radio, television and satellite transmission services were all in the relatively high prosperity range above 55.0%, with rapid growth in total business volume; the business activity indices for wholesale, retail, and resident services were all below the critical point, indicating weak market activity. In terms of market expectations, the service sector business activity expectations index was 55.4%, up 0.6 percentage points from the previous month, rising into the relatively high prosperity range above 55.0%, indicating that service sector enterprises had strengthened confidence in future market development. (2) Construction sector prosperity remained weak. The construction sector business activity index was 48.0%, down 1.3 percentage points from the previous month, with prosperity pulling back. In terms of market expectations, the construction sector business activity expectations index was 50.5%, unchanged from the previous month, indicating that construction enterprises maintained stable expectations for near-term industry development. III. Composite PMI Output Index Remained in Expansion In April, the composite PMI output index was 50.1%, down 0.4 percentage points from the previous month, indicating that overall production and business activities of China's enterprises continued to expand. The manufacturing production index and non-manufacturing business activity index, which constitute the composite PMI output index, were 51.5% and 49.4%, respectively.

In-depth Interpretation & Review of Indonesia’s Aluminum Industry Policies Centering on bauxite and extending to the entire aluminum industrial chain, the Indonesian government has rolled out a series of policies focusing on three core dimensions: volume control, pricing mechanisms, and tax rates. These measures aim to gradually improve the regulatory system, standardize industrial development, and accelerate the transformation from raw ore exports to integrated domestic downstream aluminum production. This article sorts out relevant policy details and their impacts in detail as follows: I. Volume Control: Strengthen Quota Management & Full-process Digital Supervision to Achieve Precise Supply Regulation ① Bauxite Quota: RKAB Approval Cycle Adjusted to Enhance Government Regulation Capacity Regulation Capacity Indonesia standardizes the full-process mining and sales of bauxite across all mines via the RKAB (Mining Work Plan and Budget) system. The core policy adjustment focuses on optimizing the approval cycle, mainly based on Permen ESDM No.17/2025 issued by the Ministry of Energy and Mineral Resources (ESDM) on October 3, 2025. New regulations shall be officially implemented starting from 2026: Approval Cycle Revision: The RKAB approval model for all mining enterprises is changed from once every three years to annual application and annual approval. Mines must submit RKAB applications for the next year between October 1 and November 15 each year, with all approvals completed by the end of the year to guarantee orderly production in the subsequent year. Transition & Application Timeline: In Q1 2026, if the new annual RKAB quota is still under review, the original 2026 quota can be adopted temporarily. Quota adjustment applications for the current year shall be submitted by the end of July annually, while the centralized submission window for the next year’s quota is set from October 1 to November 15, forming a dual management model of annual approval plus dynamic adjustment. Scenario Analysis & Policy Impacts Original Three-Year Approval Model: Unable to accurately forecast market demand for the next two years, this model easily triggers supply-demand mismatches and overall oversupply, putting downward pressure on bauxite prices. It also limits flexible government regulation, resulting in significant policy lag as quotas cannot be adjusted timely in response to market changes. New Annual Approval Model: The government gains stronger annual regulatory authority to dynamically adjust total annual quotas based on international bauxite prices, global supply-demand fundamentals and domestic smelting demand, improving price stability. Meanwhile, it strengthens fiscal revenue guarantees and regulatory efficiency through a more transparent and streamlined approval process, reduces rent-seeking behaviors, and advances compliant industrial development. ② SIMBARA System: Full-chain Digital Supervision to Curb Illegal Mineral Trading In accordance with Perpres 94/2025 (Presidential Regulation No.94/2025), the SIMBARA system (Inter-Ministerial Mineral and Coal Information System) officially incorporated bauxite into its regulatory scope in 2025, establishing a full-process digital supervision system covering operations from mines to end users. Through the SIMBARA official portal, the Indonesian government tracks real-time bauxite sales data and monitors the entire transportation chain from mining to downstream processing, including inter-island logistics, with precise linkage to mining quotas. It covers all key links: mining sites, processing, transportation and exports. The implementation of this system not only aligns Indonesian bauxite mining with global industry standards, but also effectively restrains irregular activities such as illegal mining, child labor and environmental damage, promoting green and compliant development of the sector. All bauxite mines are required to submit full-operation documents via the SIMBARA system, including production reports, inventory statements and raw material procurement records, for joint reviews by four core authorities: the Ministry of Energy and Mineral Resources, Ministry of Industry, Ministry of Trade, and Ministry of Transportation. The mechanism realizes data sharing, joint supervision and full traceability. II. Tax Rate: Standardize Billing Rules & Optimize Tax Burden Structure ① Indonesia’s Bauxite Tax Framework: Fixed Fee + Ad Valorem Royalty The country’s bauxite taxation policy adopts a dual structure of fixed administrative fees and floating royalties, clarifying differentiated charging rules for various mining rights. Combined with revisions to the HPM pricing mechanism, the overall tax burden structure has been optimized. Fixed Fee: Paid in a lump sum on an annual basis Core Formula: Fixed Fee = Mining Concession Area × Corresponding Unit Rate Floating Royalty: Charged per sales transaction and highly linked to commodity prices Core Formula: Royalty = Sales Volume × Transaction Price × Applicable Rate Transaction bonuses and premiums shall be included in invoice amounts for unified tax calculation; Pricing benchmark confirmation: If the premium is negative (actual transaction price benchmark price), tax calculation shall adopt HPM plus premium. Calculation Example Assume HPM = USD 44/ton, bauxite indicators: Al₂O₃=49%, Reactive Silica=2%. Actual transaction price: USD 35/ton (Premium = -9 USD/ton), Bonus = USD 1/ton, net transaction price = USD 36/ton. Given the negative premium, royalty is calculated based on HPM: Royalty = 44 USD/ton × 7% (standard bauxite royalty rate) = 3.08 USD/ton. ② Revised HPM Pricing Mechanism Effective April 15, 2026 (Kepmen ESDM No. 144/2026) Core Revisions: Pricing unit adjusted: Dry Metric Ton (DMT) → Wet Metric Ton (WMT) New deduction factor: Reactive Silica (R-SiO₂) New moisture adjustment clause added Regulators require bauxite enterprises to cooperate with inspection institutions and add key indicators including alumina content, reactive silica and moisture content to official Certificate of Analysis (COA). Data updates on the e-PNBP and MVP systems are also mandated to ensure accurate royalty calculation. The revised HPM mechanism lowers benchmark prices and overall royalty costs, reducing comprehensive bauxite mining costs and accelerating mine shipments as well as downstream industrial integration layouts. ③ Optimized HPM Pricing Cycle: Higher Flexibility to Align with Global Markets The pricing cycle has been shortened to reduce policy lag and better reflect LME aluminum price fluctuations. Old Rules (Before March 1, 2025): Monthly single HPM release. The pricing reference window covered the 20th of the month before last to the 19th of the previous month, with a pricing lag of around 45 days, failing to reflect timely international price changes. New Rules (Effective March 1, 2025): Semi-monthly HPM releases on the 1st and 15th of each month. 1st Issue (1st of each month): Calculated by average LME aluminum spot prices from the 5th to the 25th of the prior month (21-day cycle, 5-day lag); 2nd Issue (15th of each month): Calculated by average LME aluminum spot prices from the 26th of the prior month to the 4th of the current month (10-day cycle, 5-day lag). Core Benefits Improved market sensitivity: The shortened cycle enables HPM to reflect real-time LME movements, strengthens linkage with global pricing, and avoids price distortion caused by long-term average calculations; Optimized revenue management: The government can adjust domestic mineral benchmark prices more precisely in response to global aluminum volatility, balancing reasonable profit margins for mining enterprises and stable national tax revenue. III. Pricing Policy: Abolish HPM Floor Price to Boost Market Circulation & Downstream Development A landmark adjustment in Indonesia’s bauxite price regulation is the cancellation of the mandatory HPM minimum settlement price, implemented in phases to balance fiscal revenue and market vitality. Old Regulation (Kepmen ESDM No.72/2025): Bauxite transaction prices were strictly prohibited from falling below HPM. This rule triggered supply-demand imbalance, sluggish ore sales and suspended shipments by major miners, severely restricting normal market circulation. New Regulation (Kepmen ESDM No.268/2025): Signed on August 8, 2025, and officially implemented in late August 2025. The core revision abolishes the HPM floor price and allows transactions below benchmark prices. Nevertheless, taxes and royalties are still calculated based on standard HPM values to shield national fiscal revenue from price declines. Core Advantages of the Revised Policy Government Perspective: HPM-based tax collection guarantees stable fiscal revenue independent of market fluctuations. Loosened price controls revitalize trading activity, resolve the supply glut dilemma, support mine capacity expansion and local employment, and secure long-term industrial stability. Industrial Perspective: Discounted transactions ease inventory pressure for miners and accelerate capital turnover. Lower raw material procurement costs reduce production expenses for domestic smelters, incentivize downstream capacity commissioning, and help Indonesia achieve its 2040 strategic goal of full aluminum chain integration.