Middle East tensions have sparked a massive steel trade "mismatch." Iran's blocked exports created a 2.3-million-ton billet vacuum in Southeast Asia, while the Red Sea crisis stalled China's flat steel shipments to the Gulf. Consequently, China and India are rapidly absorbing SEA's diverted billet orders. SMM projects that blocked flat steel returning to China's domestic market, combined with surging overseas billet demand, will accelerate the narrowing of the domestic HRC-rebar spread.

[SMM Analysis: What Impact Does the Middle East Situation Have on the Recycled Copper Raw Materials Market?] Recent turbulence in the Middle East has once again rattled global commodity markets. However, zooming in on the recycled copper raw materials segment, the market has remained remarkably calm. This article examines the trade structure and supply-demand dynamics to explain why the Middle East situation has, in practice, a relatively limited impact on Asia's scrap copper market.

The Middle East turmoil triggered by the joint military strikes launched by the United States and Israel against Iran has become the largest geopolitical black swan for the global primary aluminum market, potentially causing supply disruptions on the order of several million mt while also pushing up smelting costs. Coupled with risk-off market sentiment, aluminum price volatility may be amplified. Going forward, it is necessary to remain vigilant against risks such as escalation of the conflict, strait blockades, and raw material supply cutoffs, as well as further impacts on aluminum prices from macro disruptions, and to respond prudently to operational and investment risks arising from supply chain fluctuations.

[SMM Aluminum Price Weekly Review: Global Macro Presents a Weak Balance and High Fluctuations Pattern, Continuous Inventory Pressure Limits Aluminum Price Upside Room]

Trading in US natural gas futures was halted for more than half an hour on Wednesday, the second major disruption in a month in one of the most heavily traded commodity markets. Metals contracts were also affected.

[SMM Aluminum Morning Meeting Minutes: Easing Macro Sentiment Holds Quotes Firm, Inventory Buildup Expectations Suppress Aluminum Price Rise] Overall, aluminum prices showed a trend of falling first and then rising after the holiday, and SHFE aluminum is expected to maintain a fluctuating trend in the short term.