[7.22 Morning Briefing] The CSRC held an investor symposium to hear opinions and suggestions. Investor representatives suggested adopting multiple measures to guide medium and long-term funds into the market, and regulating the development of quantitative trading and AI applications. The most-traded SHFE nickel 2609 contract fluctuated higher in the morning session, and as of the morning close it was quoted at 130,370 yuan/mt, up 0.09%. As the conflict between the US and Iran escalates, shipping in the Strait of Hormuz has been restricted, and sulfur cost support has strengthened somewhat. However, refined nickel inventory remains difficult to reduce, with domestic and international inventories still at high levels and a slow destocking speed. In the short term, the price of the most-traded SHFE nickel contract is expected to trade in the range of 125,000–130,000 yuan/mt.

Indonesia Targets Full Implementation of Single-Gate Export System by 1 September Indonesia expects to fully implement its single-gate export policy for strategic commodities by 1 September 2026, according to President Prabowo Subianto. The policy has been under a transition phase since 1 June 2026, with PT Danantara Sumberdaya Indonesia (DSI) coordinating preparations for the nationwide rollout. "We expect the full implementation of the single-gate export policy for strategic commodities by 1 September 2026," Prabowo said. Prabowo said DSI was established to strengthen oversight of strategic commodity exports, improve transparency, and better monitor export volumes and foreign exchange earnings.The government said the framework aims to improve export governance, strengthen oversight, and curb practices such as under-invoicing and transfer pricing. During the transition period, exporters will continue operating under the existing system while DSI gradually assumes a larger coordinating role.

July 16, 2026 Silver is not behaving like a cleaner version of gold. It fell hard this week even as the Iran story worsened, and that tells you the real trade is now split between fear, rates and industrial demand. You can see the tension in the tape. The Wall Street Journal reported that silver futures fell 2.83% on July 15 to $57.11 a troy ounce, their lowest close since Dec. 4, 2025, even as the US-Iran conflict kept pressure on energy markets. That is not what a simple haven story should look like. It is what happens when a metal has two buyers in the market and several reasons to sell at once. President Trump reversed his proposed 20% Strait of Hormuz toll on July 14 and the US reimposed a naval blockade on Iranian ports, according to The Wall Street Journal. The Guardian reported the next day that Iran threatened to halt Middle East energy exports after renewed US strikes and attacks around the Strait. Oil moved higher on that risk. Gold failed to take full advantage of it. Silver did worse. That matters. If you are buying silver only because missiles are flying near a shipping chokepoint, you are buying the wrong story. The squeeze is still real The stronger case for silver sits away from the war headlines. The Financial Times, citing the World Silver Survey from Metals Focus and the Silver Institute, reported that the market is heading for a sixth straight annual deficit of roughly 46 million ounces. Solar demand is no longer climbing in a straight line, either. The same report said industrial demand is expected to decline as solar manufacturers use less silver and substitute cheaper materials, with solar demand forecast to fall 19% in 2026. Normally, that would be enough to cool the story. It hasn't. The problem is that silver's industrial demand is not just a solar panel chart anymore. Electronics, grid equipment, electric vehicles and data centers all pull on the same physical market. You do not need to dress that up. Silver conducts electricity better than any other metal, and in a world trying to move more power through more machines, that property has a price. The AI buildout keeps adding weight. AP reported this week that artificial intelligence investment by major technology companies is projected to exceed $700 billion in 2026, with Alphabet, Amazon, Meta and Microsoft spending heavily on data centers. Tom's Hardware, citing Financial Times first-quarter data, put combined 2026 capital spending by Google, Microsoft, Meta and Amazon at $725 billion, up 77% from the previous year. Those figures are not silver demand numbers by themselves. But they do tell you why the industrial floor under the metal is harder to dismiss than it was in the last cycle. Here is the blunt version: gold has the cleaner fear trade, but silver has the messier and more interesting one. It gets pulled by wars and interest rates, then pulled again by factories and server farms. That makes it more volatile. It also gives it more ways to surprise you. Price targets need some humility There is no need to pretend silver is a sure thing. It just proved the opposite. The metal fell even while Middle East risk was live because higher oil can also mean stickier inflation, higher bond yields and a stronger case for central banks to stay tight. Non-yielding metals hate that setup. Silver hates it more because speculative money tends to leave quickly when the chart breaks. Forecasts should be read with that in mind. J.P. Morgan Global Research has been bullish on silver in its published commodities work, and Kitco has covered the bank's view that prices can average far above recent levels if deficits persist and investment demand returns. That's a serious argument. But it has a ceiling: if prices run too far, solar manufacturers thrift harder, switch pastes faster, or delay purchases. The FT's reporting on falling solar demand is the warning label on every bullish silver note. So the next test is not whether silver can react to another Iran headline. Of course it can. The better test is whether the metal can hold support when the war premium fades and buyers have to justify the price with physical demand, inventories and real industrial orders. Gold is easier to understand. Silver is easier to underestimate. If you are watching the metal now, do not watch only Tehran, Hormuz, oil or the next central bank speech. Watch the deficit numbers from the Silver Institute. Watch Big Tech capital spending, and watch whether solar thrifting starts to bite harder than AI infrastructure adds demand. That is where this trade will be decided, not in one dramatic move above or below $60. Source: https://startupfortune.com/silver-is-being-pulled-two-directions-at-once-and-that-is-exactly-why-it-could-outrun-gold/

[SMM Aluminum Express News] Bauxite overtook nickel as Indonesia's largest downstream investment sector in the second quarter of 2026, driven by the construction of new bauxite processing and smelting projects by domestic and foreign investors, according to Investment Minister Rosan Roeslani. Total downstream investment reached Rp152.7 trillion, up 5.7% year on year, accounting for 29.8% of national investment during the quarter. The government said it will continue expanding downstream development beyond nickel by building a more integrated bauxite value chain while accelerating investment in other strategic commodities, including palm oil, rubber, timber and silica sand.

The year 2026 marks the first year of the 15th Five-Year Plan. Against the backdrop of intensifying global macro volatility and China’s deepening high-quality development, the zinc industry is undergoing profound changes: tightness on the ore side and the release of smelting capacity are creating structural tension, diverging inventories in and outside China reflect the complex dynamics of supply-demand rebalancing, and technological innovation is emerging as a key driving force to resolve conflicts and reshape the landscape. Key areas under the 15th Five-Year Plan, such as new energy and new-type infrastructure, are injecting fresh momentum into traditional zinc consumption, while green, low-carbon development and the circular economy are also accelerating the restructuring of industrial logic, driven by technological innovation. With the joint support of upstream and downstream enterprises across the zinc industry chain, industry associations, and all relevant parties, the 2026 SMM Zinc Industry Conference and the 8th Hot-Dip Galvanizing Industry Development and Technological Innovation Forum, the 14th Zinc Salt, Zinc Oxide and Zinc Secondary Resources Development Forum, and the Cast Zinc Alloy Development Forum is about to be held on August 6–8 in Qingdao, Shandong. The conference, themed “Gathering Zinc Momentum, Building the Zinc Industry, Embarking on a New Journey,” will be driven by dual engines of macro perspectives and fundamental analysis, closely following the main theme of high-quality development under the 15th Five-Year Plan, and focusing on four major dimensions: macro policies, supply-demand pattern, global trade, and technological innovation. It will leverage technological breakthroughs to drive cost reduction and efficiency improvement, address market fluctuations through collaborative innovation, and jointly draw a new blueprint for the high-quality and sustainable development of the zinc industry. Shanghai Eagle Metal Materials Co., Ltd. will make a grand appearance at this event to discuss industry development trends with peers and jointly propel the zinc industry to new heights. Click to sign up now, witness and participate in this momentous and far-reaching industry gathering, and together create a brilliant new chapter! Eagle Metal—Eagle Metal is one of the world’s major commodity traders. Established in 2000 and headquartered in Shanghai, China, the group has branches in Singapore, Hong Kong, Thailand and other locations. The group primarily engages in services and operations along the non-ferrous metals industry chain. Its business scope covers copper, aluminum, lead, zinc, tin, nickel, silver, platinum and palladium, copper concentrates, lead concentrates, zinc concentrates, and more. Business activities include domestic trade in multiple commodities and international import and export, with operations spanning mainland China, Singapore, Hong Kong, London, Chicago, Thailand, South America, Africa and other regions. In addition to its core business, the group provides upstream and downstream clients with integrated trade, warehouse financing, logistics and transportation, and other risk management services. Adhering to the business philosophy of “model innovation, win-win cooperation,” the company has established enduring and in-depth partnerships with numerous large domestic and international smelters, mines, trading enterprises, and well-known banks. It has also repeatedly received honors such as “Contract-honoring and Trustworthy Unit,” “Excellent Partner,” “Best Partner,” and “Most Valuable Customer” awarded by national and Shanghai municipal authorities. Eagle Metal – In the course of its development, Eagle Metal has upheld the corporate philosophy of "virtue carries all things, and constant dripping wears away the stone"; it has remained true to its original aspiration and persisted in innovation, fueling growth through innovation and advancing development through growth. Keeping pace with the global economy, it actively participates in competition both in and outside China. Through outstanding quality services, it enhances client value and corporate value, and with firm steps, it contributes all its strength to the advancement of the non-ferrous metal industry! Contact Information Zinc Business Contact: Miao Hanying 15021533905 Zinc Business Contact: Shi Yang 18004502057 Long press or scan the QR code to register now 2026 SMM Zinc Conference

The State Council Information Office held a press conference today (14th) to present China's foreign trade performance since the start of this year. It was introduced that in H1, China's foreign trade achieved double-digit growth and maintained a good momentum. With the rapid development of artificial intelligence, imports and exports of related products showed strong momentum. In H1, imports and exports of computing hardware such as electronic components and computer parts totaled 5.13 trillion yuan, up 56.6%. Smart products like AI glasses, AI translators, and mechanical exoskeletons have been quickly iterating, with various innovative products constantly emerging. According to customs statistics, in H1 of this year, China's total goods trade imports and exports reached 25.47 trillion yuan, up 16.9% YoY. Specifically, exports were 14.73 trillion yuan, up 13.4% YoY, maintaining growth for 11 consecutive quarters; imports were 10.74 trillion yuan, up 22.1% YoY, outpacing exports by 8.7 percentage points. In June, imports and exports totaled 4.78 trillion yuan, up 24.2% YoY, maintaining growth for 17 consecutive months. Export side, the product structure further improved. In H1, China's exports of mechanical and electrical products reached 9.36 trillion yuan, up 20.1%, accounting for 63.5% of total exports, up 3.5 percentage points compared to the same period last year. Exports of high-tech products reached 3.26 trillion yuan, up 39%. Import side, in H1, China's import growth outpaced exports by 8.7 percentage points, promoting balanced development of imports and exports. Within this, imports rose for energy and other bulk commodities (3.4%), mechanical and electrical products (28%), and agricultural products (8.6%). Trading partner side, China's diversified markets continued to consolidate. In H1, China's imports and exports to Belt and Road partner countries totaled 12.97 trillion yuan, up 14.8%, accounting for 50.9% of total foreign trade. Imports and exports to neighboring countries reached 9.44 trillion yuan, up 20.6%. Trade with Latin America, Africa, and the EU expanded by 16.2%, 19.6%, and 10.2%, respectively. Business entity side, all types of business entities in China maintained good growth momentum. Imports and exports by private enterprises reached 14.53 trillion yuan, up 17%, accounting for 57% of total foreign trade. Imports and exports by foreign-invested enterprises and state-owned enterprises grew by 17.1% and 16.8%, respectively. Wang Jun, Deputy Commissioner of the General Administration of Customs, introduced at the press conference held by the State Council Information Office: Overall, China's foreign trade achieved remarkable results in H1. Meanwhile, the current external environment remains complex and volatile. The World Bank believes that the global economy is facing pressures from rising energy prices, intensifying inflationary pressure, and expectations of monetary policy tightening, leading to a weakening growth outlook. IMF forecast data shows that world economic growth is expected to slow from 3.5% last year to 3% this year, and the growth rate of goods and services trade volume is also expected to slow from 5% last year to 3.5% this year. In H2, China’s foreign trade will face some pressure, but with strong innovation momentum, robust market vitality, and a high level of openness, the fundamentals of foreign trade will remain solid, and the positive momentum in foreign trade development is expected to continue. Based on data released by the General Administration of Customs, SMM compiled the import and export situation of selected products in the metals industry, as follows: Exports: Rare earth exports in June 2026 5,104.8 mt, down 34.1% YoY vs June 2025 . Cumulative exports from January to June 2026 30,482.8 mt, down 6.4% YoY vs January to June 2025. Steel exports in June 2026 10.32 million mt, up 6.6% YoY vs June 2025 . Cumulative exports from January to June 2026 5,487.4 mt, YoY down 5.6 % vs January to June 2025. Unwrought aluminum and aluminum semis exports in June 2026 711,000 mt, up 45.4% YoY vs June 2025 . Cumulative exports from January to June 2026 3.396 million mt, up 16.3% YoY vs January to June 2025. Imports: Iron ore and concentrates imports in June 2026 112.689 million mt, up 6.4% YoY vs June 2025 . Cumulative imports from January to June 2026 628.868 million mt, up 6.3% YoY vs January to June 2025. Copper ore and concentrates imports in June 2026 2.335 10kt, down 0.6% YoY vs June 2025 . Cumulative imports from January to June 2026 14.609 10kt, down 0.9% YoY vs January to June 2025 . Coal and lignite imports in June 2026 42.779 10kt, up 29.5% YoY vs June 2025 . Cumulative imports from January to June 2026 225.4 million mt, up 1.7% YoY vs January to June 2025 . In June 2026, rare earth imports reached 6,261.5 mt, down 25.3% YoY from June 2025 . In January-June 2026, cumulative imports totaled 53,886.6 mt, down 6.1% YoY from January-June 2025. In June 2026, steel imports reached 441,000 mt, down 6.2% YoY from June 2025. In January-June 2026, cumulative imports totaled 2.696 million mt, down 11.3% YoY from January-June 2025. In June 2026, imports of unwrought copper and copper semis reached 478,000 mt, up 3% YoY from June 2025 . In January-June 2026, cumulative imports totaled 2.491 million mt, down 5.3 % YoY from January-June 2025.