SMM July 7 News: Metal Markets: As of the midday close, domestic base metals broadly fell, with SHFE copper down 0.12%, SHFE aluminum up 0.48%, SHFE lead down 0.41%, SHFE zinc up 1.06%, SHFE tin down 0.26%, and SHFE nickel down 0.02%. In addition, the most-traded silicon metal futures contract rose 0.42%, the most-traded alumina contract fell 0.44%, the most-traded lithium carbonate contract fell 2.22%, the most-traded silicon metal contract fell 0.24%, and the most-traded polysilicon futures contract edged down. Ferrous metals mostly fell. Iron ore rose 0.27%, rebar was flat at 3,074 yuan/mt, and HRC edged down. Stainless steel rose 1.83%. For coking coal and coke: the most-traded coking coal contract fell 0.93%, and the most-traded coke contract fell 0.38%. In overseas base metals, as of 11:42, LME metals mostly fell. LME copper fell 0.32%, LME aluminum rose 0.22%, LME lead fell 0.19%, LME zinc rose 0.25%, LME tin fell 0.92%, and LME nickel fell 0.79%. In precious metals, as of 11:42, COMEX gold fell 0.57%, and COMEX silver fell 1.48%. For domestic precious metals: SHFE gold fell 0.83%; the most-traded SHFE silver contract fell 2.3%. Additionally, as of the midday close, the most-traded platinum futures contract fell 1.72%, and the most-traded palladium futures contract fell 0.98%. As of the midday close, the most-traded containerized freight index (Europe) contract extended the decline from the previous trading session, falling 5.03% to 2,446.5 points. As of 11:42 on July 7, selected futures midday quotes: Spot Market and Fundamentals Aluminum: Futures continued to rise today, keeping spot aluminum in South China under pressure and weak. The sharp short-term strengthening of the spot-futures price spread yesterday, coupled with a four-day consecutive rise in absolute prices to higher levels, prompted most suppliers to actively sell for cash, with more lowering their offers. Some chose to hold prices firm but with little effect. Mainstream quotations were at a discount of 10 to 0 yuan/mt, with eased circulation... Macro Front Domestic News: [World Bank Maintains China's 2026 Growth Forecast] The World Bank released its latest China Economic Update in Beijing on July 7. The report stated that despite strong supply, weak demand, and global energy supply shocks, China's economic growth has remained generally resilient, with growth expected at 4.4% in 2026, unchanged from the previous update released last December. (Xinhua News Agency) [PBOC Reverse Repo Drains Net 59.5 Billion Yuan on the Day] The PBOC conducted 10 billion yuan of 7-day reverse repo operations today. With 69.5 billion yuan of 7-day reverse repos maturing today, the net drain for the day was 59.5 billion yuan. (Jin10 Data APP) [John Lee: Hong Kong's Central Gold Clearing System Begins Trial Today, Considers New RMB Gold Futures Contract] On July 7, John Lee announced that Hong Kong's Central Gold Clearing System began trial operation today, and that authorities are considering developing a new RMB-denominated gold futures contract. HKEX and the PBOC will sign a memorandum of understanding on cross-border RMB payment and clearing. The Hong Kong gold market is undergoing a key infrastructure upgrade, with the gold clearing and settlement system officially launching on July 7. To support the new system and activate the local gold futures market, HKEX announced a one-year waiver on gold futures-related fees starting July 7. (Wall Street CN)》Click for details US Dollar: As of 11:42, the US dollar index rose 0.09% to 100.95. Other Currencies: Japan's Economy Minister Minoru Shironaka stated that media reports suggesting Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi's government is attempting to steer interest rates lower are completely inaccurate. Speaking at a regular press conference in Tokyo on Tuesday, Shironaka said: "Reports that the government will encourage low interest rates as part of its fiscal expansion policy are groundless. If our intentions have not been accurately conveyed, we will work harder to promote understanding." The remarks come as financial markets closely watch how Takaichi will execute her economic strategy through large-scale investments without worsening Japan's already heavy debt burden. Shironaka attended the Bank of Japan's board meeting last month as a government representative, where policymakers raised the benchmark interest rate to 1%, the highest level in 31 years. (Jin10 Data APP) Economic Data: Data to be released today include Germany's May seasonally adjusted industrial production MoM, the UK's June Halifax seasonally adjusted house price index MoM, France's May trade balance, the weekly change in US ADP employment for the week ending June 20, the US May trade balance, and China's June foreign exchange reserves. Also, attention should be paid to the NATO summit hosted by Turkey, running through July 8; the public hearing held by the US Trade Representative's office to consider imposing additional tariffs on 60 global economies; and Samsung Electronics' Q2 earnings guidance. Crude Oil: As of 11:42, oil prices on both exchanges rose, with WTI up 0.54% and Brent up 0.61%. Spot Market Overview: ► ► ► Midday spot commentaries for other metals will be updated shortly, please refresh to view.

SMM, July 7: In the metals market: Overnight, domestic base metals mostly rose. SHFE copper edged up 0.01%, SHFE aluminum gained 0.28%, SHFE lead edged down 0.06%, SHFE zinc rose 0.84%, and SHFE tin added 0.35%. SHFE nickel increased 0.41%. Furthermore, the most-traded alumina futures fell 0.15%, while the most-traded foundry aluminum contract rose 0.24%. Overnight, ferrous metals mostly rose. Stainless steel surged 2.34%, iron ore gained 0.27%, rebar edged up 0.16%, and hot-rolled coil added 0.09%. In the coking coal and coke segment, the most-traded coking coal contract fell 0.43%, while the most-traded coke contract lost 0.08%. In the overseas market overnight, LME base metals showed mixed performance. LME copper and LME aluminum edged down, while LME lead fell 0.48%. LME zinc rose 1.07%, LME tin surged 1.51%, and LME nickel edged up 0.09%. In the precious metals market overnight : COMEX gold rose 1.23%, and COMEX silver gained 2.33%. Overnight, the most-traded SHFE gold contract fell 0.15%, while the most-traded SHFE silver contract lost 0.47%. As of 6:57 on July 7, the overnight closing prices were: Macro front Domestic side: [Foreign Ministry responds to popularity of Chinese heat-relief products among European consumers] In response to reports that Chinese-made heat-relief products such as air conditioners, fans, and multi-functional sun umbrellas have been gaining popularity among European consumers, Foreign Ministry Spokesperson Mao Ning said at a regular press conference on the 6th that products that meet demand and offer good quality at reasonable prices will naturally be welcomed. The trade structure between China and Europe is a natural result driven by market demand and based on complementary strengths. Facts have proven that in China-EU trade, consumers benefit from affordable goods and suppliers earn profits; it is not a matter of coercion but a two-way choice that brings shared benefits. (Xinhua News Agency) US Dollar: Overnight, the US dollar index fell 0.04% to 100.87. The ISM Services PMI for June fell to 54.0 from 54.5 in May, slightly below the market forecast of 54.2 , staying above the 50 mark, indicating the services sector remained in expansion territory but the pace of growth slowed. Although business activity and new order growth cooled, the employment gauge improved significantly, while the prices paid index pulled back to a four-month low, reflecting easing cost pressures for businesses. However, firms remained cautious about their business outlook for the coming year, with many surveyed companies citing considerable uncertainty over the economic and geopolitical outlook. (Wall Street CN) Fed Governor Waller stated that the US labour market has stabilized while inflation has re-accelerated, and the current inflation risks now outweigh employment risks, a complete reversal from policy considerations a year ago. He noted that last year he supported cutting interest rates due to weakness in the job market, but now the policy focus should shift back to containing inflation. Markets are now turning their attention to the June CPI release on July 14, the last key inflation data before the Fed's July 28-29 meeting. Although international oil prices have pulled back to around $70/barrel, Fed officials still expect inflation to remain significantly above the 2% target by year-end. Markets anticipate the Fed will hike rates by September at the latest, with a roughly 25% probability of a July rate hike, as several officials have signaled further policy tightening. (Jin10 Data APP) According to the CME FedWatch Tool, the probability of the Fed keeping rates unchanged in July is 74.3%, while the probability of a 25-basis-point cumulative rate hike is 25.7%. For September, the chance of rates staying unchanged is 42.9%, with a 46.2% probability of a cumulative 25 bps hike and a 10.8% chance of a 50 bps hike. (Jin10 Data APP) CFTC data showed that as of June 30, global traders' bullish bets on the US dollar had climbed to nearly $40 billion, the highest level since 2015, extending the dollar's monthly rally driven by interest rate expectations. Markets bet that the Fed may keep rates higher or even hike again, pushing the dollar to a gain of about 2% in June. Analysts believe that expectations of Fed monetary tightening and US economic resilience have jointly supported the dollar, but some institutions note that recent softening in employment data could limit further upside. (Jin10 Data APP) On the macro front: Today will see the release of German industrial production m/m for May (seasonally adjusted), the UK Halifax house price index m/m for June (seasonally adjusted), French trade balance for May, the weekly change in US ADP employment for the week ended June 20, US trade balance for May, and China's foreign exchange reserves for June, among others. In addition, attention should be paid to: Turkey hosting the NATO summit through July 8; the US Trade Representative's Office holding a public hearing to review proposals for additional tariffs on 60 global economies; and Samsung Electronics releasing its Q2 earnings guidance. Crude Oil: Overnight, both oil futures edged lower, with WTI down 0.13% and Brent down 0.15%. Saudi Arabia's significant cut in crude selling prices heightened oversupply concerns, weighing on international oil prices. This marked at least the largest official price reduction by Saudi Arabia in 26 years, and its first sale at a discount since the 2020 price war. This sparked worries about whether other Middle Eastern producers would be forced to follow suit with price cuts, as their official prices are expected to be announced in the coming days. OPEC+ also agreed to further raise the production target by 188,000 barrels per day starting in August. Saudi Aramco slashed its August official selling price for Arab Light crude to Asia by $11/barrel, the largest cut since at least 2000. As surging global supply intensified competition for buyers, Saudi Arabia cut its August official selling prices for key crude grades to Asian customers, the biggest reduction in at least 26 years. According to a price list, Saudi Aramco lowered the price of Arab Light crude for Asia in August by $11/barrel, to a discount of $1.50/barrel against the regional benchmark, a deeper cut than the $8/barrel expected in a survey of institutions. Middle Eastern crude prices have already been declining. After resuming exports from the Persian Gulf port of Ras Tanura, Saudi Aramco once raised crude shipments to about 90% of pre-war levels. Before the war, Ras Tanura was the main loading port for Saudi crude exports. Due to the blockade of the Strait of Hormuz during the war, Saudi Aramco diverted most of its crude flows to the Red Sea port of Yanbu. Earlier, the OPEC+ group agreed to continue with a small production increase in August. Now, as shipping resumes through the Strait of Hormuz, Gulf producers such as Saudi Arabia, Iraq, and Kuwait will be able to utilize their higher quotas. (Jin10 Data APP) Data from the US Department of Energy (DOE) showed that US Strategic Petroleum Reserve (SPR) crude inventories fell by about 6.2 million barrels last week to 319.5 million barrels, the lowest level since April 1983. This decline is part of the US plan to release a cumulative 172 million barrels of crude from the SPR previously committed. (Jin10 Data APP)

[SMM Daily Coking Coal and Coke Review] Coking Coal Market: Linfen low-sulphur coking coal quoted at 2,050 yuan/mt. Regarding coking coal, with strict safety supervision in Shanxi, coal mine production resumptions are slow, making it difficult for coking coal supply to improve. Steel mill profits are declining, wait-and-see sentiment in the market is growing, and coal mine shipments are average. However, the supply-demand fundamentals of coking coal remain unchanged, and miners are holding prices firm and holding back from selling. In the short term, the coking coal market may consolidate. Coke Market: The nationwide average price of quasi-first-grade metallurgical coke (dry quenching) is 2,090 yuan/mt. In terms of supply, after nine rounds of price increases, coke producers have seen some recovery in profits, and their operating rates remain relatively stable. On the demand side, blast furnace production at steel mills is currently at a relatively high load, but the steel market has entered the traditional off-season, end-user transactions are weakening, profit pressure is mounting, and steel mills are increasingly resistant to consecutive coke price hikes. Overall, the supply-demand imbalance in the coke market is beginning to ease, but cost support remains. In the short term, the coke market is likely to be generally stable with a slight rise. [SMM Steel]

SMM Jul. 6 News: Metals Market Update: As of the midday close, base metals on the domestic market all rose. SHFE copper edged up 0.26%, SHFE aluminum gained 0.84%. SHFE lead ticked higher. SHFE zinc added 0.97%. SHFE tin surged 2.9%. SHFE nickel inched up 0.12%. In addition, the most-traded foundry aluminum futures contract rose 0.48%, while the most-traded alumina contract dipped 0.15%. The most-traded lithium carbonate contract fell 2.19%. The most-traded silicon metal contract climbed 0.48%. The most-traded polysilicon futures contract gained 0.45%. Ferrous metals all advanced. Iron ore, HRC, and rebar each rose within 0.5%. Stainless steel added 0.89%. Coking coal and coke: the most-traded coking coal contract increased 0.82%, and the most-traded coke contract rose 1.06%. Overseas base metals: as of 11:45, LME metals all advanced. LME copper gained 0.74%, LME aluminum rose 0.71%, LME lead climbed 1.07%. LME zinc ticked up 0.1%, LME tin surged 3.94%. LME nickel added 0.61%. Precious metals: as of 11:45, COMEX gold advanced 1.27%, and COMEX silver jumped 2.24%. Domestic precious metals: SHFE gold rose 0.62%; the most-traded SHFE silver contract gained 0.5%. In addition, as of the midday close, the most-traded platinum futures contract fell 1.2%, while the most-traded palladium futures contract dropped 1.17%. As of the midday close, the most-traded container freight index (Europe) futures contract slid 2.56% to 2,592.5 points. As of 11:45 on Jul. 6, select futures midday quotes: Spot and Fundamentals Nickel: On Jul. 6, SMM #1 refined nickel price declined 750 yuan/mt from the previous trading day. For spot premiums, the average premium for Jinchuan #1 refined nickel stood at 2,300 yuan/mt, up 50 yuan/mt from the prior day DoD... Macro Front China: [PBOC Reverse Repo Operation Results in Net Injection of 49.5 Billion Yuan] The PBOC conducted 7 billion yuan in 7-day reverse repos and 1,000 billion yuan in outright reverse repos today. With 157.5 billion yuan in 7-day reverse repos and 800 billion yuan in outright reverse repos maturing, the day saw a net injection of 49.5 billion yuan. (Jinshi Data APP) [Guangzhou Baiyun International Airport’s Foreign Visitor Arrivals, Share Hit Record Highs] As of 0:00 on Jul. 6, Baiyun Port station of the Guangzhou General Station of Immigration Inspection reported over 4 million foreign entries and exits at Guangzhou Baiyun International Airport this year, up 34% YoY and accounting for over 41% of the airport’s total passenger flow. The growth rate topped the national average by 8 percentage points, with both volume and share reaching record highs. Overall, the port has handled over 10 million inbound and outbound passenger trips, up 19.6% YoY, crossing the 10 million mark 34 days earlier than in 2025. Inbound and outbound flights exceeded 63,000, up 14% YoY. (CCTV News) US dollar: As of 11:45, the US dollar index was up 0.09% at 100.95. According to the CME FedWatch Tool, the probability that the US Fed holds rates steady in July is 77%, while the probability of a cumulative 25bp hike is 23%. For September, the probability of no change is 41.9%, a cumulative 25bp hike 47.6%, and a cumulative 50bp hike 10.5%. Goncalves George, head of US macro strategy at Mitsubishi UFJ Securities Americas, said Warsh’s concise style gives the June meeting minutes greater weight than usual and offers a valuable lens into the differing stances among Fed officials. “The minutes will become more important because, so far, we don’t know what the Fed is thinking,” Goncalves George said. “It will be instructive to see how they debate and what they focus on.” He added that some investors have already questioned Warsh’s hands-off approach, and many would like to see greater transparency restored. Many market participants are not accustomed to the reduced flow of information, and there remains a considerable degree of skepticism over how long the Fed can maintain this. For now, we have to read between the lines. In a research note, Wan Michael, senior FX analyst at Mitsubishi UFJ Bank, said markets appear to be in a wait-and-see mode, looking for the next catalyst for the US dollar and US interest rates. Looking ahead, “global markets will seek direction from key data points such as the US ISM services data and Fed minutes later this week, and US CPI next week,” he said. In addition, the market is also closely watching whether Japanese authorities intervened in the currency market last week to curb yen weakness, so this uncertainty risk should not be underestimated as USD/JPY continues to hover near the 162 level. (Jin10 Data APP) Other currencies: As imports surge while export growth stalls, the boost from the mining boom to Australia’s trade appears to be fading, and the country may face its first annual trade deficit since 2016. This year, the goods trade surplus has narrowed sharply as the data center construction boom drives a surge in imports of fuel and equipment, while exports have stagnated. This trend appears set to continue, with the Australian government forecasting that export revenue from key commodities will grow only 3% in the current fiscal year compared with the previous one. The mining investment boom drove a surge in exports of iron ore, natural gas, and other commodities, fueling years of economic expansion and wealth accumulation. A return to deficits, however, could weigh on the Australian dollar and constrain the government’s fiscal space. Economist James McIntyre said, “Commodity price declines are expected to weigh on export revenues. As a result, the trade surpluses and occasional current account surpluses recorded over the past decade may give way to a pattern of deficits.” (Jin10 Data App) Data: Today, the seasonally adjusted unemployment rates for France and Switzerland in June, the eurozone July Sentix Investor Confidence Index, the eurozone May PPI monthly rate, the eurozone May retail sales monthly rate, the US June S&P Global Services PMI final, the US June ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI, and the US June Global Supply Chain Pressure Index, among other data, will be released. Additionally, speeches are expected from Fed Governor Waller, ECB Executive Board member Schnabel, ECB Governing Council member Wunsch, and Riksbank Deputy Governor Seim. Crude Oil: As of 11:45, oil prices on both exchanges fell, with WTI down 0.38% and Brent down 0.57%. Oil prices were weighed down by OPEC+’s latest decision to raise output. After an online meeting on Sunday, the group said it would increase output by about 188,000 barrels per day in August, marking the fifth consecutive monthly increase. However, analysts at ANZ Research said in a note, “Even if the Strait of Hormuz reopens, members may struggle to utilize this additional capacity due to ongoing risks to vessels.” The analysts noted, “During the weekend, multiple vessels were observed making abrupt course reversals while attempting to transit the Strait of Hormuz along the Oman route.” (Jin10 Data App) A statement showed that OPEC+ will raise oil production quotas by 188,000 barrels per day in August. The seven core members of OPEC+, which comprises OPEC and allies including Russia, have collectively raised production quotas by nearly 800,000 barrels per day from April to July. However, because the US-Israeli war on Iran has closed the Strait of Hormuz to oil tanker shipments for some of the most important OPEC+ members, including Saudi Arabia, Kuwait, and Iraq, previous increases have largely remained on paper. (Jin10 Data App) According to agency reports, the number of vessels transiting the channel along the Omani coast of the Strait of Hormuz dropped sharply on Sunday. A day earlier, multiple vessels sailing out of the strait along that channel abruptly executed sharp course reversals, underscoring Iran’s ongoing tightening of control over this strategic waterway. A product tanker that turned back on Saturday appears to be attempting passage again, having now passed the northernmost tip of Oman's Musandam Peninsula. Earlier, another product tanker transited the same route and openly broadcast its voyage intent, and is now broadcasting its position in the Gulf of Oman. Some vessels have opted for "dark transit" through the strait. A Suezmax crude tanker, which last broadcast its position in the Persian Gulf on Saturday, appeared in the Gulf of Oman on Sunday. Between Friday and Saturday, at least eight vessels suddenly turned around while transiting the Strait of Hormuz along the Omani lanes. Four of them then altered course northward, exiting the strait via the Iranian side. There is no official explanation for the sudden turnaround of these vessels. However, Iran has repeatedly stated that ships can only transit the Strait of Hormuz through Iranian-designated and -authorized lanes. According to Kpler data, on Saturday a total of 19 vessels transited the Strait of Hormuz in both directions, but only one openly indicated it would enter the strait along the Omani coastal lanes, compared to 13 on Friday. The above statistics cover only observable vessel movements. (Jin10 Data APP) Spot Market Overview: ► ► ► ► ► ► ► ► ► ►

SMM July 4 news: Metal market: Last Friday night, domestic base metals nearly all rose. SHFE copper gained 0.14%, SHFE aluminum rose 0.6%, SHFE lead added 0.38%, SHFE zinc increased 0.87%, and SHFE tin jumped 3.8%. SHFE nickel edged down 0.02%. In addition, the most-traded alumina futures contract fell 0.07%, and the most-traded cast aluminum contract rose 0.24%. Last Friday night, ferrous metals mostly closed higher. Stainless steel dropped 1.85%, iron ore rose 0.27%, rebar gained 0.39%, and hot-rolled coil added 0.4%. Coking coal and coke: the most-traded coking coal contract rose 1.21%, and the most-traded coke contract rose 1.6%. Last Friday night, in the overseas market, LME base metals rose across the board. LME copper gained 0.54%, LME aluminum added 0.23%, LME lead rose 1.04%, LME zinc climbed 2.17%, LME tin surged 4.99%, and LME nickel rose 0.4%. Last Friday night, precious metals : COMEX gold rose 1.49%, posting a weekly gain of 2.22%; COMEX silver gained 2.87%, closing the week higher with a 5.26% increase. Last Friday night, the most-traded SHFE gold contract rose 0.81%, ending the week up 3.5%; the most-traded SHFE silver contract gained 1.61%, posting a weekly rise of 8.82%. JPMorgan said that in the short term, gold prices may be capped by weakening demand and are likely to remain moving sideways overall. The main reasons are weaker purchasing power in key demand areas and renewed sensitivity of gold to changes in real interest rates, which may limit further price gains. However, the bank maintains a medium- to long-term bullish outlook. It expects gold to gradually rebound in H2 2026, with an average price of around $4,300 per ounce in Q3, rising to about $4,500 in Q4. Looking ahead to 2027, JPMorgan believes the rally may continue, driven mainly by continued central bank buying, stronger physical demand, and persistent long-term structural allocation needs. These factors will support gold's long-term appeal as a safe-haven and reserve asset. As of 7:41 a.m. on July 4, last Friday night's closing quotations: Macro front China: [Li Qiang: Take more forceful measures and actions in building a modern industrial system, accelerating high-level self-reliance in science and technology, building a strong domestic market, and deepening reforms and expanding opening up] On July 1, Premier Li Qiang, also secretary of the CPC Leadership Group of the State Council, presided over a meeting of the group to study and implement the spirit of General Secretary Xi Jinping's important speech at the celebration of the 105th anniversary of the founding of the Communist Party of China and Xi Jinping Thought on Party Building. The meeting emphasized the need to strive for new achievements in high-quality development, strengthen initiative and a sense of urgency in work, and take more robust measures and actions in building a modern industrial system, accelerating self-reliance in high-level science and technology, developing a strong domestic market, and deepening reform and expanding opening up. It called for taking solid action, shouldering responsibilities, and striving to carry forward the baton of history, so as to make greater contributions to building a strong country and achieving national rejuvenation. (Xinhua News Agency) [The State Council: Increasing Efforts in Energy Conservation and Carbon Reduction Transformation in Key Industries such as Steel and Non-Ferrous Metals to Achieve Energy Savings of More Than 150 Million mt of Standard Coal] Recently, the State Council issued the “15th Five-Year Plan for Building a Beautiful China,” clarifying the overall requirements, targets and indicators, key tasks, and major projects for comprehensively advancing the building of a Beautiful China during the 15th Five-Year Plan period. The Plan proposes that by 2030, the quality of the ecological environment will be comprehensively improved, and new significant progress will be made in building a Beautiful China. Green production and lifestyles will be essentially in place, the carbon peak target will be met as scheduled, total emissions of major pollutants will continue to decline, comprehensive solid waste management capacity and level will be significantly enhanced, urban and rural living environments will be notably improved, the diversity, stability, and sustainability of ecosystems will be continuously strengthened, nuclear and radiation safety levels will keep rising, national ecological security will be effectively guaranteed, an ecological and environmental governance system adapted to the requirements of building a Beautiful China will be steadily refined, a number of demonstration models for building a Beautiful China will be established, and the people’s sense of gain, happiness, and security from the ecological environment will be continuously enhanced. It also makes an outlook on the 2035 targets and proposes accelerating the formation of the overall layout for building a Beautiful China. (Xinhua News Agency) The Plan mentions increasing efforts in energy conservation and carbon reduction transformation in key industries such as thermal power, steel, non-ferrous metals, petrochemicals, chemicals, and building materials, promoting and popularizing energy-saving and low-carbon technologies, and achieving energy savings of more than 150 million mt of standard coal. With the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region and surrounding areas as the focus, industrial coal-fired boilers with a capacity of 65 steam tonnes per hour or below will be gradually phased out. The substitution of clean energy for coal-fired boilers and industrial kilns in industries such as food, textiles, and papermaking will be advanced. [Ministry of Finance and Two Other Departments: Adjusting Vehicle and Vessel Tax Preferential Policies for Energy-Saving Vehicles and NEVs] On July 2, the Ministry of Finance, the State Taxation Administration, and the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology issued an announcement on adjusting vehicle and vessel tax preferential policies for energy-saving vehicles and new energy vehicles. It states that from January 1, 2027, the policy of halving vehicle and vessel tax for energy-saving vehicles will be abolished, and the exemption from vehicle and vessel tax for pure electric commercial vehicles, plug-in hybrid (including extended-range) vehicles, and fuel cell commercial vehicles will be abolished. Vehicles of the above types newly acquired by taxpayers or acquired before the implementation of this announcement shall be subject to vehicle and vessel tax in accordance with the Vehicle and Vessel Tax Law of the People’s Republic of China, its implementation regulations, and other relevant provisions. [PBOC: To conduct 1,000 billion yuan outright reverse repo operation on July 6, with 3-month tenor] To keep banking system liquidity ample, on July 6, 2026, the People's Bank of China will conduct a 1,000 billion yuan outright reverse repo operation via a fixed-quantity, interest rate tender with multiple-price winning bids, with a tenor of 3 months (91 days), maturing on October 5, 2026 (adjusted for holidays if it falls on a holiday). (Jinshi Data APP) On the dollar front: Overnight last Friday, the US dollar index rose 0.03% to 100.91. On the weekly chart: The dollar index fell on a weekly basis, down 0.44% for the week, its biggest weekly decline since mid-April. The decline occurred as US June employment data cooled noticeably, leading the market to lower expectations for near-term Fed rate hikes, and the dollar index fell this week. Against a weaker dollar backdrop, the euro rose to $1.1440, up about 0.5% for the week; sterling rose to $1.3352, up about 1.1% for the week, its best performance in nearly three months. The yen rebounded from near a 40-year low, with USD/JPY once pulling back to around 161, though still at elevated levels. Japan continued to release signals of forex intervention, with finance and cabinet officials stating they are closely monitoring markets and remain prepared to intervene. Analysts pointed out that the dollar's movement has clearly been influenced by employment data and interest rate expectations, and if subsequent economic data continue to weaken, the dollar could still face further pressure. However, whether the yen can sustain its rebound still depends on the US-Japan interest rate differential and Japan's policy actions. (Jinshi Data APP) "Fed mouthpiece" Nick Timiraos said: Trump stated that he considers Fed Chairman Warsh to be on the dovish side within the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC). A day earlier, White House National Economic Council Director Hassett made similar remarks; a week earlier, US Treasury Secretary Bessent said he hoped the Fed would remain "open-minded" on inflation and expects the Fed to ease policy this year. A new era of "forward guidance"... (Jinshi Data APP) BNP Paribas Chief Economist Isabel Mateos y Lago said: "If July's nonfarm payrolls are very strong, close to or exceeding 130,000, then I think the July meeting will be full of suspense. The uncertainty may not be as high now, but in my view, the case for a Fed rate hike remains valid." Ahead of the July 4 holiday, short-term interest rate futures markets expected a roughly 20% probability of a Fed rate hike at the July 29 rate decision, down from 33% before the release of the payrolls report. Markets still expect the US Fed to raise rates by 25 basis points this year, but not until December at the earliest. For the ECB, Lagarde said, "The baseline expectation remains another rate hike in September. But it is worth noting that Governing Council members speaking at the Sintra meeting did not rule out skipping this additional hike." She warned that the normalization of energy supply could take six months or longer to take effect, and eurozone inflation could accelerate again. Even so, she also believes that consumer prices outside energy-affected areas will not face pressure. Allianz Chief Economist Ludovic Subran said, "The US non-farm payrolls data was actually weak, but I still think inflation will peak above 3.7%, and AI, fiscal stimulus and the energy sector are still supporting economic growth. The US Fed may have to raise rates in September. I think this is where the real divergence between Europe and the US lies." Subran believes that after last month's hike, the ECB will not act again. "That was an insurance hike, but judging from the current data, it seems that moment has passed," he said. "The trauma effect of the war (with Iran) takes time to manifest. The economy is still bearing the costs of war, but the situation is much better than a few weeks ago."(Jin10 Data APP) Other currencies: ECB Governing Council member Mullan said that as falling oil prices ease price pressures in the eurozone, the ECB is in a favorable position after last month's rate hike. Mullan said that while it is too early to predict the next two meetings in July and September, officials have made clear that "we will not enter a new rate-hiking cycle." Mullan said, "For now, we are in a favorable position. The balance of risks is also at a reasonable level." Mullan added, "Falling oil prices will ease inflation pressure in the services sector," and "we have not yet seen second-round effects."(Jin10 Data APP) On the macro front: This week will see the release of Switzerland June seasonally adjusted unemployment rate, Eurozone July Sentix Investor Confidence Index, Eurozone May PPI m/m, Eurozone May retail sales m/m, US June S&P Global Services PMI Final, US June ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI, US June Global Supply Chain Pressure Index, Germany May seasonally adjusted industrial output m/m, UK June Halifax seasonally adjusted house price index m/m, France May trade balance, US ADP employment change for the week ended June 20, US May trade balance, China June foreign exchange reserves, Japan May trade balance, New Zealand interest rate decision for July 8, US May wholesale sales m/m, China June CPI y/y, China June PPI y/y, Germany May seasonally adjusted trade balance, US initial jobless claims for the week ending July 4, US June existing home sales annualized, Germany June CPI m/m final, France June CPI m/m final, Switzerland June consumer confidence index, Canada June employment change, China June M2 money supply y/y, and other data. Additionally, events to watch this week include: a 900 billion yuan outright reverse repo maturing today; speeches from Fed Governor Waller, ECB Executive Board member Schnabel, ECB Governing Council member Wunsch, and Deputy Governor of Sveriges Riksbank Seim; Turkey hosts the NATO summit through July 8; the Reserve Bank of New Zealand announces its interest rate decision; RBNZ Governor Bremman holds a monetary policy press conference; the Fed releases minutes of its monetary policy meeting; the ECB releases minutes of its June monetary policy meeting; FOMC permanent voter and New York Fed President Williams delivers a speech; and 2026 FOMC voter and Dallas Fed President Logan delivers a speech. Crude Oil: In overnight trading last Friday, both oil futures edged up slightly, with WTI up 0.13% and Brent up 0.19%. On the weekly chart: WTI futures fell for a fourth consecutive week, down 0.65% for the week; Brent futures also declined for a fourth straight week, down 0.91% for the week. The crude oil market is relatively stable, with Brent stabilizing near $72 per barrel as the market weighs the supply outlook around the Strait of Hormuz and the progress of US-Iran negotiations. (Wall Street News) Data from Intercontinental Exchange (ICE) show: In the week ending June 30, Brent crude futures speculators cut their net long positions by 34,704 contracts to 55,634 contracts. Gasoil futures speculators cut their net long positions by 2,664 contracts to 57,852 contracts. (Jin10 Data APP) Data show that oil exports from the Gulf region in June increased by more than 3 million barrels per day (bpd) from May, exceeding 10 million bpd, but still 40% below pre-war levels. The UAE led the recovery in oil markets, enabling millions of barrels of crude stranded in the Gulf region to enter international markets, allowing producers to raise output and push oil prices down to pre-war levels. Kpler data show that combined crude and condensate exports from Saudi Arabia, the UAE, Kuwait, Iraq and Iran rose by more than 3.5 million bpd from May to 10.07 million bpd. Vortexa, another cargo analytics firm, estimated June shipments at 10.2 million bpd, up from 7 million bpd in May, but still well below the 16.5 million bpd recorded a year earlier. According to data from Kpler, Vortexa and LSEG, the UAE’s crude exports reached a record 3.7 million to 3.8 million bpd in June, more than 1 million bpd above May’s level. (Jin10 Data APP) Additionally, three sources said that Venezuela’s largest refinery, the 645,000-bpd Amuay refinery, has resumed operations after a power outage on Friday and is currently processing about 140,000 bpd of crude, with the fluid catalytic cracking (FCC) unit also back online. Following two earthquakes last week that caused heavy casualties, multiple refineries in Venezuela were affected by power outages. Sources also said that the El Palito refinery, with a daily processing capacity of 146,000 barrels, has had power restored, but staff have not yet been able to restart the production units. (Jinshi Data APP) A Reuters survey showed that OPEC’s crude oil production rebounded sharply in June, up about 3.3 million barrels per day MoM to 19.43 million barrels per day, a clear rebound from May’s more-than-two-decade low, but still well below quota levels. The recovery in output mainly came from Gulf countries restoring supply, with Kuwait posting the largest increase; Iran, Saudi Arabia, and Iraq also raised output in tandem. Nigeria and Libya likewise made small increases. The UAE exited OPEC on May 1 and is no longer included in the statistics. The report noted that the earlier Iran war and the effective blockade of the Strait of Hormuz had disrupted supply; the US subsequently lifted restrictions on vessels at Iranian ports, helping some output recover. Although OPEC+ had planned to increase production in June, the plan was not fully implemented due to the war. Overall, global crude oil supply was being repaired, but had not yet returned to normal levels. (Jinshi Data APP) Recommended Reading:

This week, finished steel continued its gradual decline, while raw materials began to stabilize, with coking coal rebounding to some extent. During the week, rumors about a coal mine accident in Shanxi and customs clearance restrictions at the Mongolian border spread, boosting sentiment. Coupled with the China Mineral Resources talks, the raw materials side rebounded from lows. In the second half of the week, as rumors of maintenance at steel mills across various regions emerged, negative feedback expectations intensified somewhat, and raw materials pulled back. Approaching the weekend, however, the 10th round of coke price increases was initiated, pushing coking coal and coke futures higher. In the spot market, the off-season characteristics of end-users became increasingly evident, with the market restocking at low prices as needed. With spot prices remaining relatively firm, the spot-futures price spread continued to widen...