The Indian Ministry of Steel reaffirmed in late April 2026 its goal to reach 300 million metric tons of crude steel capacity by 2030, rising from the current 168 million tons. Approximately 64% of this planned expansion relies on the coal-based blast furnace method, creating significant demand for metallurgical coal. To support this growth, India is diversifying its coking coal imports, with the U.S. share of imports increasing to 15% by 2025, reducing reliance on Australian supply which previously commanded 72% of the market.

[SMM Data: Complete Summary of SMM March 2026 Import and Export Data] SMM March 2026 import and export data showed: copper cathode net imports were down YoY; primary aluminum imports reached 255,000 mt, up 14.8% YoY; refined lead imports climbed sharply; zinc ingot imports were up 220% MoM; tin ore imports were up 122% YoY; silver imports were up 93% MoM; steel exports rebounded MoM; PV module export value was up 122.7% MoM; silicon metal exports were up 43% MoM, and magnesium exports hit a multi-year high. Among new energy materials, exports of LiPF6 and artificial graphite surged significantly.

Bharat Coking Coal Limited (BCCL), a subsidiary of Coal India, reported a 1.6% decline in coking coal production for February 2026. This minor contraction comes as India designates coking coal as a "critical mineral" to reduce import dependency, even as port traffic for coking coal imports rose 11% in the April-February FY26 period.

India’s metallurgical coal imports rose sharply by 32% year-on-year in 2025, totaling 73.53 million tonnes. For December 2025 alone, imports jumped by 97% compared to the previous year, reaching 7.32 million tonnes. This surge reflects the massive appetite of the expanding Indian steel industry. Forecasts for 2026 project coking coal inflows to reach 81.6 million tonnes, as major producers seek to secure raw materials via increased tender activity in early 2026.

Vietnam’s total coal imports reached a historic high of 65.43 million tonnes in 2025, a 2.6% increase year-on-year, driven by soaring electricity demand from the country’s manufacturing boom. Data from Vietnam Customs shows that coal-fired power plants, which provide over 50% of the nation’s energy supply, consumed more than 90% of these imports. Indonesia solidified its position as the leading supplier, accounting for 48.4% of the total volume in December 2025 alone, followed by Australia and Russia. Despite the record volume, the growth rate decelerated from previous years as Vietnam simultaneously accelerated its transition toward renewable energy.

Last week, steel prices strengthened amid speculation over events such as production restrictions and coking coal imports. Meanwhile, the much-discussed export license issue in the market has been partially absorbed, with the trading atmosphere recovering mid-week. According to the SMM survey, as of now, the licenses have increased the complexity of export procedures but have not yet imposed substantive restrictions on customers' exports. Additionally, overall market expectations for definitive ticket inspections remain low. Therefore, it is comprehensively estimated that the subsequent impact on purchase orders will be relatively small. However, the final outcome still needs to be assessed after the situation becomes clear on January 1. As of last Friday, China's export offers stood at $460-465/mt for HRC and $437-445/mt for billets.