[Daily Review of Coking Coal and Coke by SMM] In terms of supply, coking plants maintained normal production during the Chinese New Year, but hindered transportation led to some accumulation of coke inventory. After the holiday, transportation gradually resumed, easing sales pressure on coking plants. On the demand side, some steel mills in Hebei have received notices for temporary voluntary emission reductions during the Two Sessions, and sales of finished products remain average, prompting steel mills to adopt a cautious stance toward coke procurement, resulting in controlled arrivals. Overall, market sentiment is dominated by wait-and-see, and the coke market may remain in the doldrums in the short term.

Feb. 26: The SM2605 contract opened at 5,748 yuan/mt and closed at 5,918 yuan/mt, up 2.85%, with the highest price at 5,968 yuan/mt and the lowest at 5,740 yuan/mt. Trading volume was 722,600 lots, and open interest stood at 451,708 lots. Futures showed an upward trend. Cost side, frequent news from manganese mines continues to stimulate the manganese ore market to hold up well. Regional divergence in electricity costs is significant, becoming a key factor affecting the competitiveness of alloy plants in different production areas. Electricity prices in northern production areas are expected to remain low, offering notable cost advantages, while the main production areas in south China see no downside room for electricity prices. The coking coal and coke markets overall remain in the doldrums, exerting a mild impact on SiMn costs. Supply side, SiMn supply diverges between the north and south markets. On one hand, some alloy plants in Inner Mongolia still have expectations to start production or resume production, which will lead to an increase in SiMn capacity release and gradually highlight supply-side pressure, likely restraining price increases. On the other hand, most SiMn producers in the south face difficulties resuming production due to rising costs from raised electricity pricing policies. Demand side, the mainstream steel tender prices for February have not been announced, and the market is watching for the impact of tender pricing on the market.

Under a no-policy-impact scenario, SMM estimates Zimbabwe's total lithium production to reach 200,000 tonnes LCE in 2026, accounting for 9% of global primary lithium supply. Following the export ban, as official implementing rules have not yet been released by the authorities, SMM has developed two scenarios to assess the impact on global lithium supply: 1. If only lithium sulfate can be exported: Zimbabwe could supply 17,000–35,000 tonnes LCE in 2026, representing 8%–16% of the country's original supply capacity, a reduction of 170,000–190,000 tonnes LCE. 2. If companies with processing capacity can export both lithium concentrate and lithium sulfate: Zimbabwe could supply 90,000–140,000 tonnes LCE in 2026, representing 45%–70% of the country's original supply capacity, a reduction of 60,000–110,000 tonnes LCE. Assuming the ban on raw ore and lithium concentrate exports remains in effect throughout 2026, while lithium sulfate exports are permitted, SMM's assessment of the impact magnitude is as follows: 1 . Timeline of Public Information on Zimbabwe's Lithium Export Restrictions Source: SMM compilation based on public information 2. 2026 No-Policy-Impact Scenario SMM estimates Zimbabwe's lithium supply would reach 200,000 tonnes LCE in 2026, representing: Over 15% year-on-year growth from 2025 10% of global primary lithium supply in 2026 17% of global spodumene supply in 2026 3. Major Operating Mines in Zimbabwe Major Lithium Mining Projects in Zimbabwe Source: SMM compilation based on public information Notes : Based on public information: Zimbabwe's average spodumene grade ranges from 1.06–1.98%, with concentrate grades of 4.0–5.5%. Conversion ratio: 9.5:1 (concentrate to LCE) Petalite grades range from 0.8–1.8%, with concentrate grades of 3.0–4.2%. Conversion ratio: 16:1 (concentrate to LCE) References also made to individual companies' public disclosures Project Updates: Arcadia and Bikita submitted beneficiation plans to Zimbabwe's Ministry of Mines in 2024 Arcadia: Lithium sulfate project construction began in January 2025, with initial design capacity of 50,000 tonnes. Commissioning began in October 2025, currently in ramp-up stage. Lithium sulfate exports experienced some delays in mid-to-late February 2025 Bikita: Announced in its May 2025 investor relations presentation that it plans to complete 10,000 tonnes lithium sulfate construction by end-2025, and commence 20,000 tonnes construction in 2026 Kamativi: Announced on February 26, 2026, that its Zimbabwe lithium sulfate project has commenced construction 4. China's Lithium Spodumene Imports (2025) Zimbabwe supplied over 1.2 million tonnes of spodumene to China in 2025, accounting for approximately 15% of China's total imports. Lithium Spodumene Imports by Source Country (2025) Source: China Customs, SMM compilation 5. Project Comparison: Arcadia Lithium Sulfate Plant Construction and Ramp-Up Timeline Construction to commissioning takes approximately one year. If the export ban remains in effect throughout 2026: Arcadia and Bikita are confirmed to be able to export lithium sulfate Based on Kamativi's February 25, 2026 public announcement, it may also be able to export lithium sulfate. As Kamativi's capacity plans have not yet been disclosed, certain assumptions have been made regarding its output. No-Policy-Impact Baseline: Zimbabwe's Expected Total Output Approaching 200,000 Tonnes LCE in 2026. Scenario Analysis: Impact of Export Ban on Supply (1) Only lithium sulfate can be exported: a. No export procedure required (Arcadia + Bikita + Kamativi): Zimbabwe will have an exportable lithium resource volume of 30,000–35,000 tons LCE in 2026, accounting for 16% of the country's total annual lithium supply, with an affected volume of nearly 170,000 tons LCE; b. Export permit application process required for lithium sulfate (policy pending clarification, assuming a two-month processing period) (Arcadia + Bikita + Kamativi): Zimbabwe will have an exportable lithium resource volume of 17,000 tons LCE in 2026, accounting for 8% of the country's total annual lithium supply, with an affected volume of nearly 190,000 tons LCE. (2) Companies with smelting capacity can export both lithium concentrate and lithium sulfate: a. No export procedure required (Arcadia + Bikita + Kamativi): Zimbabwe will have an exportable lithium resource volume of 140,000 tons LCE in 2026, accounting for 70% of the country's total annual lithium supply, with an affected volume of nearly 60,000 tons LCE; b. Export permit application process required for lithium sulfate (policy pending clarification, assuming a two-month processing period) (Arcadia + Bikita + Kamativi): Zimbabwe will have an exportable lithium resource volume of nearly 90,000 tons LCE in 2026, accounting for 45% of the country's total annual lithium supply, with an affected volume of nearly 110,000 tons LCE.

In recent years, the PV industry has entered a period of deep adjustment, with module prices continuing to decline, and both upstream and downstream segments of the industry chain facing severe profit compression. Driven by the imperative of "extreme cost reduction," PV glass, a key auxiliary material for PV modules, has imposed increasingly stringent requirements on the cost and quality of upstream raw materials.

[SMM Coking Coal and Coke Daily Brief] Supply side, coking plants operated normally, maintaining pre-holiday production levels. However, transportation capacity declined during the holiday, leading to a slight accumulation of coke inventories at some coking plants. Demand side, hindered transportation and holiday consumption caused a slight decrease in coke inventories at some steel mills. Yet, end-user demand for steel products remained weak, and finished product inventories accumulated, prompting steel mills to adopt a cautious approach toward coke procurement, mainly purchasing as needed. Overall, the coke market maintained a weak supply-demand balance, with coke inventories not yet reaching high levels and cost support remaining stable. This week, the coke market may operate in the doldrums.

[Price Review] During the Chinese New Year holiday, overseas precious metals were affected by multiple factors including US macro policies and Middle East geopolitical conflicts. Silver prices showed a V-shaped reversal trend, falling first and then rising. As of the closing on February 23, spot silver in London closed at $88.17 per ounce, up approximately 13.8% compared to the pre-holiday closing price of $77.46 per ounce on February 13. A pre-holiday decline in US stocks, combined with weakened liquidity, dragged down overseas precious metal prices, which continued to fall in the early part of the Chinese New Year holiday week. Subsequently, the US released its Q4 GDP growth for last year, which fell short of expectations, leading precious metals to stop falling and rebound. Last Friday (February 20), the US Supreme Court ruled to repeal most of the tariffs imposed by the Trump administration last year, and Trump immediately announced an additional 10% tariff on all global imports to the US over the next 150 days. This news reignited market concerns about trade conflicts and economic downturn. Additionally, stalled US-Iran negotiations, which could lead to a worsening situation in the Middle East, stimulated safe-haven demand. Precious metals surged significantly during the session, recovering previous losses, with silver leading the gains sharply. After the Chinese New Year holiday this week, uncertainties around tariff policies and geopolitical impacts continued to ferment. Domestic silver prices opened higher and extended their strong upward trend. After SHFE deliveries concluded on Thursday, spot cargo flowed out, and previously imported crude silver materials entered the market after processing, temporarily alleviating the tight supply of national standard silver ingots. Approaching the weekend, silver prices showed some weakness in continuing their rally. Regarding the gold/silver ratio, as silver led the precious metals gains during the holiday against a backdrop of low inventory levels, the gold/silver ratio dropped back slightly below 60 times. As of February 25, the LBMA gold/silver ratio pulled back to about 57 times. [Important Data] Bullish: US EIA crude oil inventories for the week ending February 13 were -9.014 million barrels, lower than the previous value and expectations. The final University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index for February was 56.6, lower than the previous value and expectations. Bearish: US initial jobless claims for the week ending February 14 were 206,000, lower than the previous value and expectations. The US core PCE price index annual rate for December was 3%, higher than the previous value and expectations. US EIA crude oil inventories for the week ending February 20 were 1,598.9, higher than the previous value and expectations. Data and macro news releases to focus on next week include: This Friday, the US will release the January core PCE price index, the inflation indicator most closely watched by the US Fed, which will directly impact monetary policy expectations. On March 6 (Friday) at 21:30, the US will release the February seasonally adjusted non-farm payrolls data and unemployment rate, key indicators for assessing the US labour market conditions and the US Fed's policy direction. Next week, Fed Chairman Powell and several governors and voting members will deliver speeches, requiring attention to their latest statements on inflation, the job market, and the impact of tariff policies. U.S.-Iran situation: The third round of indirect talks between the U.S. and Iran was held on February 26, with both sides reaching consensus on the guiding principles for negotiations, but core disagreements remain. The U.S. military has deployed two aircraft carriers to the Middle East, and the period from March to July 2026 is a high-risk window, requiring vigilance against risks of negotiation breakdown or escalation of military friction. [Price Forecast] Silver prices have ended the wild swings in the short term. As London silver prices break through the 50-day daily average and stabilize above key support levels, bulls are expected to return to the market. Overall, overseas silver prices may move sideways next week, but risks of high fluctuations due to further escalation of U.S.-Iran negotiation outcomes and Trump's tariff policies still require caution. On the domestic spot price front, despite robust downstream demand, previously imported crude silver and large ingots have been processed and refined and are gradually entering the market. Some suppliers have slightly lowered their premium quotes, and further narrowing of domestic silver ingot premium is expected.