SMM July 4 News: Metal market: Overnight, domestic base metals nearly all rose. SHFE copper rose 0.14%, SHFE aluminum rose 0.6%, SHFE lead rose 0.38%, SHFE zinc rose 0.87%, SHFE tin rose 3.8%. SHFE nickel dipped 0.02%. Additionally, the most-traded alumina futures fell 0.07%, and the benchmark casting aluminum futures rose 0.24%. Overnight, ferrous metals mostly rose. Stainless steel fell 1.85%, iron ore rose 0.27%, rebar rose 0.39%. Hot-rolled coil rose 0.4%. For coking coal and coke: the most-traded coking coal contract rose 1.21%, and the most-traded coke contract rose 1.6%. Overnight, in the overseas market, LME base metals all rose. LME copper rose 0.54%. LME aluminum rose 0.23%, LME lead rose 1.04%. LME zinc rose 2.17%. LME tin rose 4.99%. LME nickel rose 0.4%. Overnight, precious metals: COMEX gold rose 1.49%, with a weekly gain of 2.22%; COMEX silver rose 2.87%, with a weekly positive close and a gain of 5.26%. Overnight, the most-traded SHFE gold contract rose 0.81%, with a weekly gain of 3.5%; the most-traded SHFE silver contract rose 1.61%, with a weekly positive close and a gain of 8.82%. J.P. Morgan stated that gold prices may be constrained in the short term due to weakening demand and are expected to remain range-bound. The main reasons are reduced purchasing power in key demand areas and gold's renewed sensitivity to real interest rate changes, which may cap further price increases. However, the bank maintains a bullish view for the medium and long term. Gold is expected to gradually rebound in H2 2026, with an average price around $4,300 per ounce in Q3, rising to about $4,500 in Q4. Looking ahead to 2027, J.P. Morgan believes gold prices are likely to continue their upward trend, driven by factors including continued central bank purchasing, stronger physical demand, and persistent long-term structural allocation needs. These factors will underpin gold's long-term appeal as a safe-haven and reserve asset. As of 7:41 AM on July 4, overnight closing prices: Macro front Domestic side: [Li Qiang: Take more forceful measures and actions in building a modern industrial system, accelerating high-level technological self-reliance, building a strong domestic market, deepening reforms, and expanding opening-up.] On July 1, Li Qiang, Premier of the State Council and Secretary of the Party Leadership Group, presided over a meeting of the State Council Party Leadership Group to study and implement the spirit of General Secretary Xi Jinping's important speech at the celebration of the 105th anniversary of the founding of the Communist Party of China and Xi Jinping's thoughts on party building. The meeting emphasized the need to strive for new achievements in high-quality development, strengthen initiative and a sense of urgency in work, and take more robust measures and actions in building a modern industrial system, accelerating self-reliance in high-level science and technology, developing a strong domestic market, and deepening reform and expanding opening up. It called for taking solid action, shouldering responsibilities, and striving to carry forward the baton of history, so as to make greater contributions to building a strong country and achieving national rejuvenation. (Xinhua News Agency) [The State Council: Increasing Efforts in Energy Conservation and Carbon Reduction Transformation in Key Industries such as Steel and Non-Ferrous Metals to Achieve Energy Savings of More Than 150 Million mt of Standard Coal] Recently, the State Council issued the “15th Five-Year Plan for Building a Beautiful China,” clarifying the overall requirements, targets and indicators, key tasks, and major projects for comprehensively advancing the building of a Beautiful China during the 15th Five-Year Plan period. The Plan proposes that by 2030, the quality of the ecological environment will be comprehensively improved, and new significant progress will be made in building a Beautiful China. Green production and lifestyles will be essentially in place, the carbon peak target will be met as scheduled, total emissions of major pollutants will continue to decline, comprehensive solid waste management capacity and level will be significantly enhanced, urban and rural living environments will be notably improved, the diversity, stability, and sustainability of ecosystems will be continuously strengthened, nuclear and radiation safety levels will keep rising, national ecological security will be effectively guaranteed, an ecological and environmental governance system adapted to the requirements of building a Beautiful China will be steadily refined, a number of demonstration models for building a Beautiful China will be established, and the people’s sense of gain, happiness, and security from the ecological environment will be continuously enhanced. It also makes an outlook on the 2035 targets and proposes accelerating the formation of the overall layout for building a Beautiful China. (Xinhua News Agency) The Plan mentions increasing efforts in energy conservation and carbon reduction transformation in key industries such as thermal power, steel, non-ferrous metals, petrochemicals, chemicals, and building materials, promoting and popularizing energy-saving and low-carbon technologies, and achieving energy savings of more than 150 million mt of standard coal. With the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region and surrounding areas as the focus, industrial coal-fired boilers with a capacity of 65 steam tonnes per hour or below will be gradually phased out. The substitution of clean energy for coal-fired boilers and industrial kilns in industries such as food, textiles, and papermaking will be advanced. [Ministry of Finance and Two Other Departments: Adjusting Vehicle and Vessel Tax Preferential Policies for Energy-Saving Vehicles and NEVs] On July 2, the Ministry of Finance, the State Taxation Administration, and the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology issued an announcement on adjusting vehicle and vessel tax preferential policies for energy-saving vehicles and new energy vehicles. It states that from January 1, 2027, the policy of halving vehicle and vessel tax for energy-saving vehicles will be abolished, and the exemption from vehicle and vessel tax for pure electric commercial vehicles, plug-in hybrid (including extended-range) vehicles, and fuel cell commercial vehicles will be abolished. Vehicles of the above types newly acquired by taxpayers or acquired before the implementation of this announcement shall be subject to vehicle and vessel tax in accordance with the Vehicle and Vessel Tax Law of the People’s Republic of China, its implementation regulations, and other relevant provisions. [Central Bank: To Conduct 1,000 Billion Yuan Outright Reverse Repo on July 6 with 3-Month Term] To keep banking system liquidity ample, on July 6, 2026, the People's Bank of China will conduct 1,000 billion yuan of outright reverse repo operations through fixed quantity, rate tender, and multiple price bidding, with a term of 3 months (91 days). The maturity date is October 5, 2026 (postponed in case of holidays). (Jinshi Data APP) On the dollar front: The overnight US dollar index edged up 0.03% to 100.91. For the week, the US dollar index fell, dropping 0.44% for the week, the largest weekly decline since mid-April. The reason was a significant cooling in the US June employment data, which led the market to lower short-term Fed rate hike expectations, causing the dollar index to fall this week. Against a weaker dollar, the euro rose to $1.1440, up about 0.5% on the week; sterling rose to $1.3352, up about 1.1% on the week, its best performance in nearly three months. The yen rebounded from near a 40-year low, with USD/JPY briefly pulling back to around 161 but remaining at high levels. Japan continued to release signals of foreign exchange intervention, with both finance and cabinet officials stating they are closely monitoring the market and maintaining readiness to intervene. Analysts pointed out that the dollar's trend has been notably influenced by employment data and interest rate expectations. If further economic data continues to weaken, the dollar could still face further pressure, but whether the yen can sustain its rebound still depends on the US-Japan interest rate differential and Japanese policy actions. (Jinshi Data APP) Fed mouthpiece Nick Timiraos said: Trump stated that he believes Fed Chairman Walsh is on the dovish side within the FOMC. The previous day, White House National Economic Council Director Hassett made similar remarks. A week earlier, Treasury Secretary Bessent expressed hope that the Fed would keep an "open attitude" toward inflation and predicted the Fed would ease policy this year. A new era of "forward guidance"... (Jinshi Data APP) BNP Paribas Chief Economist Isabelle Mateos y Lago said: "If the July non-farm payrolls are very strong, close to or above 130,000, then I think the July meeting will be full of suspense. The uncertainty may not be that high now, but in my view, the case for a Fed rate hike still stands." Before the start of the July 4 holiday, short-term interest rate futures markets priced in about a 20% chance of a Fed rate hike at the July 29 meeting, down from 33% before the non-farm payrolls report. The market still expects the US Fed to raise interest rates by 25 basis points this year, but the earliest hike would be in December. On the European Central Bank, Lagarde said: “The baseline expectation remains another rate hike in September. However, it is notable that Governing Council members speaking at the Sintra conference did not rule out the possibility of not implementing this additional hike.” She warned that the normalization of energy supplies could take half a year or longer to take effect, and eurozone inflation could accelerate again. Even so, she sees no pressures on consumer prices beyond energy-affected areas. Allianz Chief Economist Ludovic Subran said: “US non-farm payrolls data is actually weak, but I still think inflation will peak above 3.7%, and AI, fiscal stimulus, and the energy sector are still supporting economic growth. The US Fed may have to raise rates in September. I think this is the real divergence between Europe and the US.” Subran believes that the ECB will not act again after last month's rate hike. “That was an insurance hike, but from the current data, it seems to have passed,” he said, “the traumatic effects of the (Iran) war will take time to manifest, and the economy is still bearing the costs of the war, but the situation is much better now than a few weeks ago.” (Jin10 Data APP) Other currencies: ECB Governing Council member Muller said that the ECB is in a favorable position after last month's rate hike as falling oil prices ease price pressures in the eurozone. Muller said that while it is too early to predict the next two meetings in July and September, officials made clear that “we are not entering a new rate-hiking cycle.” Muller said: “For now, we are in a favorable position. The balance of risks is also at a reasonable level.” Muller added: “Falling oil prices will ease services inflation pressure,” and “we are not yet seeing second-round effects.” (Jin10 Data APP) On the macro front: Next week will see the release of Switzerland's June seasonally adjusted unemployment rate, the Eurozone July Sentix Investor Confidence Index, the Eurozone May PPI m/m, the Eurozone May retail sales m/m, the US June S&P Global Services PMI final, the US June ISM non-manufacturing PMI, the US June Global Supply Chain Pressure Index, Germany's May seasonally adjusted industrial output m/m, the UK June Halifax seasonally adjusted house price index m/m, France's May trade balance, the US ADP employment change for the week ending June 20, the US May trade balance, China's June foreign exchange reserves, Japan's May trade balance, the New Zealand RBNZ interest rate decision due July 8, the US May wholesale sales m/m, China's June CPI y/y, China's June PPI y/y, Germany's May seasonally adjusted trade balance, the US initial jobless claims for the week ending July 4, the US June existing home sales annualized, Germany's June CPI m/m final, France's June CPI m/m final, Switzerland's June consumer confidence index, Canada's June employment change, China's June M2 money supply y/y, among other data releases. In addition, next week attention should also be paid to: 900 billion yuan in outright reverse repos maturing today; speeches by US Fed Governor Waller, ECB Executive Board member Schnabel, ECB Governing Council member Wunsch, and Riksbank Deputy Governor Seim; Turkey hosting the NATO summit through July 8; the Reserve Bank of New Zealand's interest rate decision; RBNZ Governor Bremann's monetary policy press conference; the US Fed's release of its monetary policy meeting minutes; the ECB's release of its June monetary policy meeting minutes; remarks by FOMC permanent voting member and New York Fed President Williams; and remarks by 2026 FOMC voting member and Dallas Fed President Logan. Crude oil: Overnight, both oil futures edged up, with WTI up 0.13% and Brent up 0.19%. On a weekly basis: WTI futures posted a fourth consecutive weekly decline, down 0.65% for the week; Brent futures also fell for a fourth straight week, down 0.91%. The crude oil market was relatively stable, with Brent crude consolidating near $72 per barrel as the market weighed the supply outlook in the Strait of Hormuz and progress in US-Iran negotiations. (Wall Street CN) Data from the Intercontinental Exchange (ICE) show that in the week ended June 30, speculators in Brent crude futures cut their net long positions by 34,704 lots to 55,634 lots. Speculators in diesel futures reduced their net long positions by 2,664 lots to 57,852 lots. (Jin10 Data) Data showed that oil exports from the Gulf region in June increased by more than 3 million barrels per day (b/d) from May, surpassing 10 million b/d, but remained 40% below pre-war levels. The UAE led the recovery in the oil market, allowing millions of barrels of crude stranded in the Gulf to reach international markets, thereby enabling producers to raise output and bring prices down to pre-war levels. According to Kpler, combined exports of crude and condensate from Saudi Arabia, the UAE, Kuwait, Iraq and Iran jumped by more than 3.5 million b/d from May to 10.07 million b/d. Another freight analytics firm, Vortexa, estimated that oil shipments in June were 10.2 million b/d, up from 7 million b/d in May but still well below 16.5 million b/d a year earlier. Based on data from Kpler, Vortexa and LSEG, UAE crude exports hit a record 3.7 to 3.8 million b/d in June, more than 1 million b/d above May's levels. (Jin10 Data) In addition, three sources said that Venezuela's largest refinery, the 645,000 b/d Amuay refinery, resumed operations on Friday after a power outage and is currently processing about 140,000 b/d of crude oil, with the fluid catalytic cracking unit (FCC) also back online. Following two earthquakes last week that caused heavy casualties, multiple refineries in Venezuela were affected by power outages. Sources also said that the El Palito refinery, with a daily processing capacity of 146,000 barrels, has had power restored, but staff have not yet been able to restart the production units. (Jinshi Data APP) A Reuters survey showed that OPEC’s crude oil production rebounded sharply in June, up about 3.3 million barrels per day MoM to 19.43 million barrels per day, a clear rebound from May’s more-than-two-decade low, but still well below quota levels. The recovery in output mainly came from Gulf countries restoring supply, with Kuwait posting the largest increase; Iran, Saudi Arabia, and Iraq also raised output in tandem. Nigeria and Libya likewise made small increases. The UAE exited OPEC on May 1 and is no longer included in the statistics. The report noted that the earlier Iran war and the effective blockade of the Strait of Hormuz had disrupted supply; the US subsequently lifted restrictions on vessels at Iranian ports, helping some output recover. Although OPEC+ had planned to increase production in June, the plan was not fully implemented due to the war. Overall, global crude oil supply was being repaired, but had not yet returned to normal levels. (Jinshi Data APP) Recommended Reading:

This week, finished steel continued its gradual decline, while raw materials began to stabilize, with coking coal rebounding to some extent. During the week, rumors about a coal mine accident in Shanxi and customs clearance restrictions at the Mongolian border spread, boosting sentiment. Coupled with the China Mineral Resources talks, the raw materials side rebounded from lows. In the second half of the week, as rumors of maintenance at steel mills across various regions emerged, negative feedback expectations intensified somewhat, and raw materials pulled back. Approaching the weekend, however, the 10th round of coke price increases was initiated, pushing coking coal and coke futures higher. In the spot market, the off-season characteristics of end-users became increasingly evident, with the market restocking at low prices as needed. With spot prices remaining relatively firm, the spot-futures price spread continued to widen...

Philippine market: Zambales and Northern Luzon officially entered the rainy season. A low-pressure system may make landfall on Monday, and CIF prices followed Indonesian procurement prices lower. Overall CIF China offers fell this week: 1.3% at $45.5–47/wmt, 1.4% at $56–57/wmt, 1.5% at $64–65/wmt, and 1.8% at $91–94/wmt. CIF Indonesia offers held flat, with 1.3% at $45–46/wmt and 1.4% at $55–56/wmt, largely aligning with smelter tender prices. Freight rates eased notably this week: Surigao–Lianyungang around $13.25/wmt, Surigao–Indonesia around $11/wmt. Overall freight rates dropped by around $0.5/wmt WoW, significantly easing the situation where “freight rates stayed high.” FOB prices also moved lower, with 1.3% at $33–35/wmt, 1.4% at $41.5–43.5/wmt, and 1.8% at $76–78/wmt, confirming the earlier view that FOB would follow CIF’s pullback. Supply side, Zambales and Northern Luzon officially entered the rainy season, worsening mine roads, disrupting shipments, and leading to low outbound volumes. In terms of weather, the Philippines is expected to see continuous rainfall for the first five days of next week, shifting to mainly showers in the last two days, with total weekly rainfall surging across the country. Meanwhile, a low-pressure system is forming in the eastern waters; though not expected to intensify into a tropical depression or storm, it is forecast to make landfall in the central-southern Philippines next Monday and move northwestward across land, affecting Luzon, Visayas, and Mindanao. In major producing areas, cumulative weekly rainfall next week around the Manicani-Homonhon-Dinagat-Surigao belt is expected to more than double WoW, with the Homonhon area likely to be impacted by swells for 2–3 days. Dinapigue’s rainfall is forecast to be about six times this week’s level, with wave heights reaching around 1.7 meters on Wednesday and Thursday. RTN, Ipilan, and Berong loading points in Palawan are all expected to see higher rainfall next week compared to this week. In Zambales, cumulative weekly rainfall is forecast to be about 2.5 times this week’s level. Despite sustained weather disruptions, Chinese port inventories are already high, so weather’s support to prices remains very limited. Cost side, international oil prices pulled back slightly, alleviating mining and transportation cost pressures, but spot freight rates remained at relatively high levels, with the easing not yet fully materialized. Demand side, smelters in both China and Indonesia held dual-high inventories, with limited near-term restocking appetite. The buyer-dominated pattern persisted, and spot trading stayed sluggish. On inventories, as of June 26, Philippine nickel ore stocks at Chinese ports stood at around 6.44 million wmt (approximately 51,000 mt in nickel metal content), sustaining the ample supply picture. Indonesian market: HMA dropped sharply MoM—down 7.6% to a new low; RKAB revision window opened; heavy rainfall continued to disrupt shipments in Halmahera and Obi. Indonesia’s Ministry of Energy and Mineral Resources published the HMA nickel reference price for the first half of July at $17,225.67/dmt, a significant drop of about 7.6% from $18,642.33/dmt in the second half of June. Based on this, the theoretical HPM price for Ni 1.6% saprolite ore is around $66.6/wmt, and for Ni 1.2% limonite ore around $47.4/wmt. Premiums: premiums for 1.6% material remained stable; premiums for 1.4% material were around $1.3/wmt; for 1.5% and 1.6%, around $3/wmt—overall limited movement. In spot trading, 1.2% limonite ore was offered at around $30/wmt, and 1.5% saprolite ore at around $65/wmt, with both declining by about $5.5/wmt in total this week, mainly driven by the sharp fall in the HMA reference price. Supply side, the impact of the rainy season on Sulawesi production areas remained relatively mild in some regions, with limited disruption to overall shipments. However, weather conditions in Halmahera and Obi Island were generally severe, with persistent heavy rainfall and deteriorating sea conditions already causing some restrictions on mine production. Despite shipment disruptions, overall smelter inventory levels remained relatively adequate, limiting the near-term influence on procurement pace. Meanwhile, smelters continued to demand higher ore grades; low-grade ore (1.3–1.4%) supply was largely filled by Philippine cargoes, and multiple smelters turned to actively seeking high-grade ore (≥1.45%). Yet domestic high-grade ore supply remained scarce, with circulating grades concentrated in the 1.45–1.50% Ni range, intensifying procurement competition. Spot transaction prices for 1.2% limonite ore stayed stable this week; smelter procurement stayed low, with general reluctance to transact at HPM theoretical prices, deep discounts persisted, and low HPAL operating rates continued to weigh on purchasing prices. On the policy front, on Thursday, June 25, Tri Winarno, Director-General of Mineral and Coal at Indonesia’s Ministry of Energy and Mineral Resources, clarified that the total RKAB quota for nickel ore in 2026 has not yet been finalized. The government is still evaluating companies’ revision applications through the official review mechanism, with no specific figure set, focusing on assessing actual industry demand rather than relaxing restrictions. The RKAB revision window officially opened on July 1 and runs until July 31, with mining companies already initiating preparation work for revision applications and submitting production quota adjustment materials intensively; all adjustments are subject to full review.

[SMM Coking Coal and Coke Daily Brief] Coking Coal Market: Linfen low-sulphur coking coal offers are at 2,050 yuan/mt. For coking coal, recently the resumption of production at mines in Qinyuan County has been slow, and some mines have further cut production to varying degrees after resuming operations. Coking coal supply remains tight. However, downstream buyers are showing fear of high prices, with sales of some high-priced coal types turning sluggish. Online auctions have seen a marked increase in failed lots. In the short term, the coking coal market may start to stabilize. Coke Market: The nationwide average price of quasi-first-grade metallurgical coke (dry quenched) is 2,090 yuan/mt. Regarding news, coke enterprises in various regions have initiated the tenth round of coke price increases, to be effective from 00:00 on July 6, 2026. In terms of supply, the ninth round of coke price increases have been implemented, leaving most coke producers profitable and with moderate production enthusiasm. However, downstream purchasing enthusiasm has weakened, and traders are actively selling, resulting in an increase in coke supply. On the demand side, finished steel prices at steel mills have been drifting lower, and steel mill profits have further narrowed, prompting mills to start cutting hot metal production. With hot metal production expected to decline further, rigid demand for coke is weakening. Overall, market sentiment has weakened. In the short term, the coke market may be generally stable with a slight rise, while the tenth round of price increases may face some bargaining. [SMM Steel]

SMM July 3 News: In the metals market: As of the midday close, most domestic base metals rose. SHFE copper gained 0.76%, SHFE aluminum rose 1.45%. SHFE lead advanced 0.47%. SHFE zinc edged down 0.02%. SHFE tin climbed 0.66%. SHFE nickel increased 0.59%. Additionally, the most-traded cast aluminum futures rose 1.42%, while the most-traded alumina fell 1.62%. The most-traded lithium carbonate futures rose 1.87%. The most-traded silicon metal futures gained 0.18%. The most-traded polysilicon futures edged up. Ferrous metals mostly fell. Iron ore declined 1.41%. HRC, rebar, and stainless steel all fell within 0.4%. In the coking coal and coke markets, the most-traded coking coal contract rose 1.58%, and the most-traded coke contract rose 1.89%. In overseas base metals, as of 11:46, LME metals rose across the board. LME copper gained 0.96%, LME aluminum rose 1.04%, LME lead advanced 0.8%. LME zinc increased 0.81%, LME tin climbed 2.05. LME nickel rose 1.1%. In precious metals, as of 11:46, COMEX gold rose 1.64%, and COMEX silver gained 2.76%. In domestic precious metals, SHFE gold advanced 2.67%, and the most-traded SHFE silver futures contract surged 4.05%. Strategists at OCBC Bank Group Research said in a report that gold's medium-term role as a target for asset diversification remains valid, but its price may be dragged down by a more challenging macroeconomic environment. OCBC analysts said demand for gold may be supported by the official sector, with central banks indicating they intend to increase gold reserves in the next 12 months. However, they added that investors have already priced in expectations for US Fed interest rate hikes, and the short-term macro pressure from rising real yields and a stronger US dollar is unlikely to be fully offset. OCBC expects gold prices to reach $4,360 per ounce by the end of 2026 and $4,680 per ounce by the end of Q2 2027. (Jinshi Data APP) Furthermore, as of the midday close, the most-traded platinum futures rose 3.81%, and the most-traded palladium futures gained 4.1%. As of the midday close, the most-traded European container shipping route futures contract rose 3.31% to 2,653 points. As of 11:46 on July 3, midday quotes for some futures: Spot and fundamentals Copper: Today, spot #1 copper cathode in Guangdong against the front-month contract: high-quality copper quoted at 60 yuan/mt, up 10 yuan/mt from the previous trading day; standard-quality copper quoted at 20 yuan/mt, up 20 yuan/mt from the previous trading day; SX-EW copper quoted at a discount of 50 yuan/mt, up 10 yuan/mt from the previous trading day. The average price of #1 copper cathode in Guangdong was 102,965 yuan/mt, up 625 yuan/mt from the previous trading day, while the average price of SX-EW copper was 102,875 yuan/mt, up 620 yuan/mt from the previous trading day. In the spot market, Guangdong inventories have pulled back for two consecutive days… Macro Front On the domestic front: [This year's 200 billion yuan "program of large-scale equipment upgrades and consumer goods trade-ins" funding for equipment renewal has been fully allocated] The National Development and Reform Commission (NDRC) has noted that this year's 200 billion yuan ultra-long-term special sovereign bond funding to support the "program of large-scale equipment upgrades and consumer goods trade-ins" for equipment renewal has been fully allocated. (CCTV News) [PBOC's open market operations resulted in a net drain of 168.5 billion yuan on the day, and a net drain of 1,587 billion yuan for the week] The PBOC conducted 63 billion yuan of 7-day reverse repo operations today. With 231.5 billion yuan of 7-day reverse repos maturing today, this resulted in a net drain of 168.5 billion yuan for the day. For the week, the PBOC conducted 678.5 billion yuan of 7-day reverse repos and 900 billion yuan of overnight reverse repos. With 2,265.5 billion yuan of 7-day reverse repos and 900 billion yuan of overnight reverse repos maturing this week, this resulted in an aggregate net drain of 1,587 billion yuan for the week. (Jin10 Data APP) On the US dollar front: As of 11:46, the US dollar index fell 0.07% to 100.81. On Friday, the US dollar was on track for its biggest weekly loss in nearly three months, after a weaker-than-expected June payrolls report delayed market expectations for US Fed rate hikes and offered some respite to the ailing yen. A sharp slowdown in US employment growth in June prompted traders to scale back their expectations of near-term rate hikes by the US Fed, with the market now pricing in a 52% chance of a hike at the September meeting, down from 64% the previous trading day. US Treasury yields also pulled back from earlier highs, with the two-year yield snapping a three-day winning streak. OCBC currency strategist Sim Moh Siong said, "At the margin, the data is a bit dovish and helps ease concerns about an overheating labor market and the need for more aggressive policy tightening." However, he added that so long as expectations of Fed tightening remain in place, the overall outlook for the US dollar remains constructive, especially against low-yielding currencies. (Jin10 Data APP) According to CME "FedWatch": The probability of the US Fed keeping rates unchanged at the July meeting is 82.4%, and the probability of a cumulative 25-basis-point rate hike is 17.6%. For the September meeting, the probability of rates remaining unchanged is 46.8%, while the probability of a cumulative 25-basis-point rate hike is 45.6% and the probability of a cumulative 50-basis-point rate hike is 7.6%. Jin10 Data APP) CICC research report pointed out that the US added 57,000 nonfarm payrolls in June, below market expectations, indicating a cooling of the acceleration in job growth. After downward revisions to previous months, the average job gains over the past three months still reached 111,000, showing that the labour market is still expanding. Meanwhile, the unemployment rate fell to 4.2%, and the labour force participation rate continued to pull back, reflecting steady labour demand coexisting with a contraction in labour supply, with overall unemployment pressure relatively small. CICC believes that this data gives the US Fed time to wait and watch, thus maintaining the judgement that there will be neither an interest rate increase nor a cut for the rest of the year. In the medium term, the improvement in US employment this year is more attributable to the economic cycle recovery driven by AI investment, rather than short-term factors such as the World Cup. This means that if total economic demand continues to expand boosted by AI, the possibility of the US Fed resuming interest rate hikes next year cannot be ruled out. Huatai Securities research report stated that the US nonfarm payrolls in June missed expectations, mainly due to a sharp pullback in leisure and hospitality and local government employment, which had been boosted earlier by the early Memorial Day and the World Cup. By sector, both services and government saw a marked slowdown in new nonfarm jobs, while the goods sector saw a small rebound. The June nonfarm report eased market concerns about overheating risks in the US labour market. Leading indicators suggest that employment levels will be around the equilibrium level of 0‒50,000 in the coming months, maintaining the view that the US Fed will keep interest rates unchanged in H2 and may need to raise rates next year. Data: Today, France's May industrial production m/m, France's June final services PMI, Germany's June final services PMI, Eurozone June final services PMI, UK June final services PMI, and other data will be released. In addition, China's refined oil products will open a new pricing window. European Central Bank President Lagarde will attend an economic forum, and Bank of England Governor Bailey will deliver a speech on fiscal and monetary policy coordination. Notably, on July 3, the US – NYSE will be closed for one day due to the US Independence Day holiday. The US – CME, due to the US Independence Day, will have trading in its precious metals, energy, foreign exchange, US Treasury, and equity index futures contracts close early at 01:00 Beijing time on July 4. July 3 (Friday) coincides with the US Independence Day holiday, and financial market trading hours will be adjusted accordingly. The holiday schedules for overseas exchanges are as follows: (all times are Beijing time) Crude oil: As of 11:46, both benchmarks rose, with WTI up 0.52% and Brent up 0.64%. Saudi Arabia’s crude exports have surged to near pre-war levels since it resumed loading and unloading tankers in the Persian Gulf, providing further evidence that oil supplies from regional producers are recovering following the US-Iran interim peace agreement. In the six days through Wednesday, the world’s largest oil exporter shipped a daily average of 6.3 million barrels of crude, according to tanker-tracking data compiled by Bloomberg. That pace is roughly in line with the average for 2025 and nearly 90% of February’s level, when the kingdom and its Gulf neighbors ramped up supply before the Iran war broke out. (Jin10 Data APP) Citigroup said the US-Iran memorandum of understanding is expected to remain in force in the coming months and eventually be converted into a formal agreement. The incentives for de-escalating the conflict outweigh the costs of returning to confrontation. The bank reiterated its recommendation to sell into any summer rally and forecast that Brent crude will fall to $60-65 a barrel by year-end. Additionally, "gasoline prices have been a bit sticky on the way down," US Treasury Secretary Bessent said in a CBS News interview. "We’re trying to put a little pressure on the gasoline retailers. We are telling them we’re watching closely," Bessent said, "We’ve gotten positive responses from some of the big-box retailers on doing something for the consumer." Bessent hopes the average gasoline price will fall to $3 a gallon by Labor Day and said he expects oil and energy prices to continue to pull back. (From Wall Street News APP) Separately, trading in Intercontinental Exchange (ICE) Brent crude futures contracts will close early at 01:30 Beijing time on July 4 in observance of US Independence Day. Spot Market Overview: ► ► ► ► ► ► ► ► ► ► ►

[7.3 Morning Meeting Minutes] US June ADP employment increased by 98,000, the smallest gain since March and below market expectations of 118,000. The most-traded SHFE nickel 2609 contract moved sideways in morning trading, closing the session at 125,880 yuan/mt, down 0.41%. A stronger US dollar and a shift in market expectations toward a more "hawkish" US Fed policy stance kept the macro environment challenging. Markets turned their attention to this week's US ADP and non-farm payrolls data. In the short term, nickel prices are expected to trade in the doldrums within the range of 125,000-135,000 yuan/mt.