1. Thailand & South Korea Markets: Prices climb steadily, bolstered by upbeat expectations for long-term contract premiums CIF quotations and transaction prices of aluminum ingots in Thailand and South Korea moved higher overall this week. The backwardation of LME spot aluminum against the three-month contract narrowed notably. Market optimism over higher Q3 QMJP long-term contract prices continued to build. Sellers lifted spot quotes amid rising costs, pushing transaction prices up accordingly during the week. End-product manufacturers in Southeast Asia and South Korea have extensively adopted Chinese exported aluminum products as raw material substitutes, curbing import demand for primary aluminum ingots. Most downstream players only conduct sporadic restocking based on immediate needs, with little willingness for large-scale inventory buildup. The market has therefore seen a trend of strong prices amid sluggish trading activity . 2. Japan Market: Tight spot supply drives sharp premium hikes; buyers become more price-tolerant Japan’s MJP spot premiums kept climbing this week, mainly driven by acute domestic spot shortages. The Middle East, Japan’s major source of imported aluminum ingots, has delivered lower shipments year-on-year due to geopolitical tensions, shipping disruptions and constrained delivery schedules. No other producing regions can make up the supply gap on a meaningful scale, keeping domestic tradable spot inventories at persistently low levels. Faced with tight supply, Japanese end-users have softened their price stance and grown more receptive to spot cargoes with steep premiums. Meanwhile, bullish expectations for Q3 long-term contract premiums have spilled over to the spot market. The combined factors have pushed Japan’s spot premiums to sharply elevated levels.

\LME aluminium prices have retreated steadily from their late-May peak, falling from nearly $3,680 per metric ton to around $3,480 per metric ton. More notably, the LME aluminium Cash-3M spread narrowed sharply over just one week, dropping from a cash premium of $104.56 per metric ton on June 1 to $15.17 per metric ton on June 9, a loss of nearly $90 per metric ton. This marks the steepest contraction in the backwardation structure since the outbreak of the Middle East conflict.

The Australian Anti-Dumping Commission has issued an affirmative preliminary determination, imposing a 37.8% provisional anti-dumping (AD) duty on light gauge steel studs and tracks imported from China, effective May 26, 2026. The tariff applies to Wenan Kaize Building Material Co., Ltd. and all other Chinese exporters, while the concurrent countervailing duty (CVD) investigation continues without preliminary duties. Initiated on June 30, 2025, upon request by Rondo Building Services Pty Ltd, the case evaluates dumping activities from April 2024 to March 2025. This tariff barrier is expected to force Chinese exporters to reassess their pricing strategies for the Australian market and could lead to increased domestic steel procurement in Australia, temporarily disrupting the region's light gauge steel supply chain and supporting local mill margins.

[SMM Steel] The global flat steel market in 2026 is being reshaped by chronic overcapacity, rising regional protectionism, CBAM-related pressure, and weaker traditional steel margins, according to discussions at Steel 2026 in Izmir. Market participants said weak demand in major economies and continued Chinese exports are putting downward pressure on international flat steel prices. Turkish and European producers are under growing pressure from low-cost Asian imports, tighter EU carbon rules, and shrinking margins. CBAM and quota policies are also changing export costs and trade flows, while service centers are expected to play a larger role in processing, financing, inventory management, and short-term delivery.

[SMM Steel] Nippon Steel reported FY2025-26 net profit of JPY44.75 billion, down sharply from JPY382.97 billion a year earlier, while sales rose 15.7% YoY to JPY10.06 trillion. Operating profit fell 55.7% YoY to JPY242.9 billion. Crude steel output increased 27.5% YoY to 50.48 million mt, while shipments declined 1.5% YoY to 31.16 million mt. The company warned that weak global steel demand, rising low-priced Chinese exports, trade protectionism, and Middle East geopolitical risks could continue pressuring earnings.

A Chinese energy and chemical firm plans to build a magnesium alloy project in Turkmenistan, leveraging local resources and Chinese technology. Meanwhile, Brazil sharply raised anti-dumping duties on Chinese magnesium ingots to $4.07/kg, effectively closing direct export channels.