[Ex-China Supply Disruptions Combined with Macro Recovery Strengthen Upside Momentum for Aluminum Prices] The risk of ex-China aluminum supply disruptions has not yet subsided, and the ex-China aluminum ingot supply-demand gap will continue to provide support for aluminum prices. Meanwhile, tightened invoicing has restricted aluminum ingot spot liquidity, and a weakening spot market will limit upside room for domestic aluminum prices. However, since April, China's export orders have remained positive, and combined with recent macro tailwinds, a turning point in China's social inventory is expected to emerge, boosting upside momentum for aluminum prices.

[Macro Policy and Tug-of-War Between Sellers and Buyers: Aluminum Prices Move Sideways] The risk of supply disruptions to aluminum outside China has not yet subsided, and there remains a supply gap in ex-China aluminum, with the strong LME market transmitting to China and providing support for aluminum prices. However, the continuation of inventory buildup exceeding expectations in China will weigh on domestic aluminum prices. Meanwhile, tightened invoicing regulations may lead to structural tightness in spot cargo, and the weakening spot market further limits the upside room for domestic aluminum prices. Close attention should be paid to the potential turning point in China's social inventory, which could drive a rebound and rise in aluminum prices.

[Inventory Buildup Weighs on Domestic Aluminum Prices; Ex-China Support and Risks Coexist] The risk of supply disruptions to aluminum production outside China has not yet subsided, and the ex-China aluminum ingot supply-demand gap will continue to provide support for aluminum prices. Meanwhile, the continuation of higher-than-expected inventory buildup in China will weigh on domestic aluminum prices. At the same time, tightened invoicing restrictions have constrained aluminum ingot spot liquidity, and the weakening spot market further limits the upside room for domestic aluminum prices. Close attention should be paid to the potential emergence of a turning point in China's social inventory, which could drive a rebound and rise in aluminum prices.

[SMM Aluminum Price Weekly Review: Domestic and International Aluminum Prices Weakened in Tandem, Weak Macro Sentiment Dragged Down Pre-Holiday Market]

[Aluminum Prices Pull Back in Tandem Domestically and Abroad, Weak Macro Sentiment Combined with China Inventory Buildup Drags Market] Overall, geopolitical risks outside China persisted and the supply landscape tightened, providing fundamental resilience for LME. However, a stronger US dollar and cooling interest rate cut expectations weighed on commodity sentiment. LME aluminum saw profit-taking at highs, while SHFE aluminum followed lower, dragged by high inventory and weak demand. The divergence between LME and SHFE continued to narrow.

[Domestic and LME Aluminum Prices Weakened in Tandem, Market Divergence Narrowed] Overall, geopolitical risks persisted outside China and the supply landscape tightened, providing fundamental resilience for LME; in China, high inventory combined with weak demand continued to constrain price rises. Recently, domestic and LME aluminum prices weakened in tandem, and the divergence between the two narrowed.