[SHFE and LME Aluminum Prices: Low-Level Consolidation and Recovery as Destocking Positives Offset Overseas Capacity Negatives] On the macro front, US June nonfarm payrolls significantly missed expectations, causing the market to push back the timing of Fed rate hikes. A weaker US dollar provided valuation support for nonferrous metals. The US and Iran resumed nuclear talks, and the geopolitical risk premium continued to narrow, to some extent capping the upside room for commodities. Meanwhile, expectations of new overseas aluminum capacity coming on stream formed a medium- and long-term supply bearish factor. Domestic positives stood out. The proportion of liquid aluminum continued to rise, and aluminum ingot warehouse withdrawals hit a four-year high over the past week. The pace of inventory destocking significantly accelerated, providing support for the bottom of SHFE aluminum. Amid a mix of bullish and bearish factors, overseas positives from a weaker US dollar and negatives from supply/geopolitics offset each other. LME aluminum, after an earlier oversold decline, saw its downward momentum slow, and in the short term, it mainly undergoes low-level consolidation and recovery. Supported by rapid destocking, the probability of China’s market underperforming LME aluminum is low. SHFE and LME may see slight divergence, and a one-sided weak market is unlikely to persist.

[SMM Aluminum Price Weekly Review: Export Demand Offsets Weak Domestic Consumption, China Domestic Aluminum Prices Expected to Fluctuate and Adjust in the Short Term]

[Inventory Trends Diverge Significantly in and outside China; Aluminum Prices Continue LME-Outperforms-SHFE Pattern] Negotiations in the Middle East experienced repeated twists and turns, and geopolitical risks had not yet fully been cleared. However, the widening supply gap outside China and the steady drawdown of LME inventory jointly supported LME aluminum prices in holding up well. In China, social inventory of aluminum ingots remained at elevated levels, with the strength of demand recovery and the pace of inventory drawdown becoming the core variables influencing SHFE price trends.

[SMM Aluminum Price Weekly Review: U.S.-Iran Negotiation Situation Fluctuated, Macro Bullish and Bearish Factors Intertwined This Week]

[SMM Aluminum Spot Market Midday Review: Futures Strengthened and Aluminum Prices Remained High, Spot Premiums/Discounts Continued Under Pressure] SHFE aluminum's morning trading center rose to around 20,870 yuan/mt. In east China, as aluminum prices increased, suppliers became more willing to sell, but downstream purchases were weak. Market transaction prices were at a discount of 20-10 yuan/mt against SMM prices. Today, the east China market selling sentiment index was 3.09, up 0.02 WoW; purchasing sentiment index was 2.71, down 0.03 WoW. Today, SMM A00 aluminum was quoted at 20,860 yuan/mt, up 110 yuan/mt from the previous trading day, at parity with the September contract and at a discount of 10 yuan/mt against the October contract.