SMM, July 21: US Secretary of State Rubio stated in a media interview on the evening of the 19th that the Trump administration “remains open to a diplomatic solution.” Expectations of a negotiated settlement between the two sides in the market tug-of-war heated up, and international oil prices pulled back in tandem. Earlier inflation concerns driven by energy prices cooled, and the market’s bets on the US Fed holding high interest rates weakened marginally. Coupled with a sharp rebound in Asia-Pacific stock markets today, overall market risk appetite improved. The built-up sentiment for an oversold rebound in precious metals was released in a concentrated manner, and multiple positive factors resonated to drive a rebound in both precious metals futures and equity prices. Zhaojin Gold, Shandong Humon Smelting, Western Gold, and other precious metals enterprises reported positive H1 earnings forecasts, and the favour from some market funds also contributed to the synchronized strength in precious metals futures and stocks. As of around 13:35 on July 21, COMEX gold was up 1.07% at $4,058.7/oz; SHFE gold main contract rose 1.31% to 885.6 yuan/g; COMEX silver gained 2.13% to $58.285/oz; SHFE silver main contract advanced 3.65% to 14,186 yuan/kg; silver T+D increased 2.84% to 14,113 yuan/kg. Additionally, platinum main contract rose 1.63% to 399.3 yuan/g, and palladium main contract gained 2.87% to 302.4 yuan/g. Precious metals stocks surged. As of the close on July 21, the precious metals sector rose 7.34%. Among individual stocks: Xingye Silver&Tin, Chifeng Gold, and Shengda Resources hit the daily limit up; Xiaocheng Technology, Shanjin International, Hunan Silver, Zhongjin Gold, and Shandong Gold were among the top gainers. News [Russia’s gold holdings fell to 73.4 million ounces in June] The Russian central bank stated on its website that as of month-end June, the value of its reserves was $299 billion, compared with $325.9 billion at the end of May. [World Gold Council: Chinese market gold ETFs saw significant inflows in H1] According to the World Gold Council, gold prices weakened in June, erasing earlier gains, and H1 ended with a decline. Despite outflows in June, Chinese market gold ETFs still recorded significant inflows in H1, driving total assets under management slightly up to 243 billion yuan, with total holdings increasing by 29 mt to 277 mt. [Zhaojin Gold: expects H1 2026 net profit to increase 347.48%-436.98% YoY] Zhaojin Gold disclosed its earnings forecast on the evening of July 14. It expects H1 2026 net profit attributable to parent at 200 million to 240 million yuan, up 347.48%-436.98% YoY; and non-recurring net profit of 80 million to 116 million yuan, up 490.44%-756.14% YoY. [Shandong Humon Smelting: Estimated H1 2026 Net Profit Up 81.06%-122.36% YoY] Shandong Humon Smelting disclosed its earnings forecast on the evening of July 14, estimating H1 2026 net profit attributable to shareholders at 570 million – 700 million yuan, up 81.06%–122.36% YoY; adjusted net profit is estimated at 272 million – 402 million yuan, down 2.03%–33.73% YoY. [Western Gold: Estimated H1 2026 Net Profit Up 280.16%-333.39% YoY] Western Gold disclosed its earnings forecast on the evening of July 13, estimating H1 2026 net profit attributable to shareholders at 500 million – 570 million yuan, up 280.16%–333.39% YoY; adjusted net profit is estimated at 490 million – 580 million yuan, up 172.96%–223.09% YoY. [Zhongjin Gold: Estimated H1 2026 Net Profit of 4.1 Billion – 4.6 Billion Yuan, Up 52.15%-70.7% YoY] Zhongjin Gold disclosed its earnings forecast on the evening of July 13, estimating H1 2026 net profit attributable to shareholders at 4.1 billion – 4.6 billion yuan, up 52.15%–70.7% YoY; adjusted net profit is estimated at 4.05 billion – 4.55 billion yuan, up 36.96%–53.87% YoY. Spot Market Silver On July 21, the SMM 1# silver ex-factory reference average price in the morning was 13,825 yuan/kg, with the average up 0.7% from the previous trading day. In the spot market, premium/discount quotes that day extended the trend of previous days, with consumption remaining sluggish and transactions being mostly at parity to slight discounts. The spot-futures price spread on the futures market widened slightly, and some suppliers reduced shipments. Early morning quotes in the Shanghai area were mainly concentrated at TD parity to +5 yuan/kg, with some rigid demand orders supporting transactions and suppliers’ willingness to sell weakening. In the Shenzhen area, some national-standard cargoes were concentrated around TD -5 yuan/kg to parity, with low-priced cargoes existing but having limited disruption. That day, the market’s premium/discount against the SHFE2608 contract was at a discount of 20 – 30 yuan/kg; against the most-traded SHFE contract 2610, it was at a discount of 40 – 60 yuan/kg. Overall, precious metals lacked clear guidance from news, and recently both domestic and overseas futures markets have shown signs of bulls entering, so attention can be paid to changes in open interest. Spot premiums/discounts traded near parity, and the pattern of weak supply and demand persisted. Platinum On July 21, spot platinum was quoted at 395 – 398 yuan/g, with the average price at 396.5 yuan/g, unchanged from the previous trading day. Spot market, mainstream quotations for platinum were at parity to a premium of 1 yuan/g against the PT2608 contract. The premiums/discounts of mainstream quotations were basically flat from the previous trading day. Today, the price spread between the GFEX platinum October and August futures contracts widened slightly. In the morning, suppliers' quotes for spot platinum were mainly at premiums of 0.5 to 1 yuan/g against the most-traded GFEX contract. Later, as the futures market rose, some suppliers adjusted their quotes to around parity, where transactions were made. Downstream users made small purchases based on orders. Overall, the spot platinum market saw normal trading volumes today. In July, a Section 232 window for platinum and palladium will open. If the US imposes tariffs on platinum and palladium after the 180-day negotiation period ends, it will support prices in the short term. Voices from Various Sides Regarding the future trend of precious metals, some institutions' views are as follows: Jinyuan Futures research report stated: The recent escalating US-Iran tensions have pushed oil prices higher, lifting inflation expectations. Precious metals remained under pressure but their decline slowed. After the sharp pullback in gold and silver prices, bargain-hunting buying emerged. The correction in US tech stocks will also redirect some funds into precious metals. Although the correction trend in gold and silver is not yet over, the probability of a rebound is increasing. Hundun Futures research report noted: As geopolitical tensions continue to seesaw, the market is not yet convinced enough to expect an overall pullback in oil prices. Inflation expectations could rebound from lows, limiting the decline in US bond yields. Hence, the rebound in precious metals remains limited under these circumstances. The US Fed's relatively cautious remarks have also capped the rebound in precious metals. Fed Chairman Warsh said the balance sheet should be kept as small as possible so that it can expand in a crisis. The labour market looks quite good, but he is not optimistic about inflation and is dissatisfied with it; Fed's Williams stated that with inflation still elevated, it must be brought back sustainably to the 2% target, and the current monetary policy stance is very well positioned to achieve that; Logan said that a modest rate hike now would help better balance the outlook and risks, and moderate tightening now is better than having to tighten significantly later. The Fed's stance is clearly cautious, unwilling to let the market overprice a relaxation of vigilance. The market dares not further trade interest rate cut expectations, and precious metals weakened again. Liquidity and risk appetite remain weak under the influence of the equity market. As AI fundamentals are being reassessed, deleveraging in funding further amplifies volatility. The continued decline in the equity market has made liquidity relatively tight and restricted the drivers for precious metals. At this stage, the overall market is still dominated by sentiment-driven trading. Geopolitics, the AI narrative, and economic/inflation resilience mean the US dollar index and US bond yields will remain volatile. A trend reversal in precious metals still needs to be observed. Analysts at ANZ Research said in a report that physical gold demand and central bank purchases are supporting the gold market. These analysts added that while gold faces short-term headwinds from the US Fed’s tightening expectations and a strong US dollar, investment positions in gold look thin after months of exchange-traded fund outflows, suggesting that the scope for further declines may be limited. A high interest rate environment typically weighs on non-yielding assets such as gold. (Zhitong Finance) Goldman Sachs said that despite pressure from the US Fed’s tightening-leaning expectations, central bank buying is expected to provide a floor for gold. Demand remains robust, with central banks purchasing 81 mt in May and a three-month average of 67 mt per month, well above the pre-2022 average of 17 mt, according to the firm’s estimates. Goldman Sachs analysts stated, “We believe the trend of central banks increasing gold holdings will persist for years as they diversify reserves to hedge geopolitical and financial risks.” The bank expects average monthly purchases of 50 mt and 40 mt for this year and next year, respectively. (Jinshi Data APP) Soojin Kim, analyst at MUFG, said, “Recent price action suggests that the market is placing greater weight on the possibility of US interest rates staying high for longer rather than on gold’s traditional safe-haven demand. This leaves gold vulnerable to pressure unless geopolitical risks further translate into a broad deterioration in financial market sentiment.” (Jinshi Data APP) Asset manager Fidelity International said it plans to rebuild its gold position, which it reduced earlier this year, at an appropriate time in the future, believing that gold’s long-term momentum remains strong. Ian Samson, multi-asset portfolio manager at Fidelity International, recently said, “We plan to add back to gold, the question is just timing.” He said he reduced the gold allocation to a neutral level during the January-February period, when the multi-year bull run in gold abruptly ended. Samson expects the gold market to re-enter a bull market sometime in 2027. The logic of a return to a bull market would only be disrupted in a scenario where “governments re-embrace fiscal discipline and central banks truly commit to bringing inflation back down,” he added, “but I don’t think we are in that world right now.” Samson also said that continued gold purchases by central banks—a key driver of the previous bull market—will continue to support gold prices. Last Thursday, US Eastern Time, technical strategists at Bank of America warned that the pullback in gold so far this year may still have significant room to run, and its trajectory could resemble the devastating bear markets that followed the sharp rallies in gold in 1980 and 2011. They proposed a phased buying strategy, suggesting full allocation only when gold prices fall to the $3,450–$3,250 range. Bank of America analysts pointed out in a technical research report that gold prices have now accumulated a series of bearish signals, with the risk of a sustained drop increasing: a death cross pattern, elevated net long positions, a bearish topping candlestick, a TD Sequential exhaustion signal, and an RSI reading of 90 at the recent high—a level consistent with the gold price peaks in 1980 and 2011. UBP lowered its year-end gold price target to $4,800 per ounce and, while remaining long-term bullish on gold, is not adding to positions for now. Its current gold allocation is neutral at around 5%, down from an overweight position earlier this year. Paras Gupta, head of discretionary portfolio management for Asia at UBP, said in an interview that the previous overweight position "posed the greatest risk to our portfolios." UBP would like to see the Middle East ceasefire agreement hold and more clarity on inflation and interest rate trends before adding to its positions. Gupta said that for investors currently without gold holdings, a drop below $4,000 per ounce would be an extremely attractive entry point. (Zhitong Finance) Recommended reading:

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SMM, July 21 – Metal market: As of the midday close, base metals on the domestic market rose broadly. SHFE tin rose 0.77%. SHFE copper rose 0.99%, while SHFE aluminum fell 0.34%. SHFE zinc rose 0.27%. SHFE lead edged down, and SHFE nickel edged up. Additionally, the most-traded casting aluminum futures contract fell 0.3%, the most-traded alumina contract rose 0.78%, the most-traded lithium carbonate contract fell 4.45%, the most-traded silicon metal contract fell 0.36%, and the most-traded polysilicon futures contract rose 0.22%. Ferrous metals mostly fell. Iron ore fell 1.39%, while rebar and hot-rolled coil fell 0.84% and 0.73% respectively. Stainless steel rose 0.48%. Coking coal and coke: the most-traded coking coal contract fell 2.58%, and the most-traded coke contract fell 2.76%. Overseas base metals, as of 11:44, LME metals all rose. LME copper rose 0.14%, LME aluminum rose 0.51%, and LME lead rose 0.45%. LME zinc and LME tin rose 0.6% and 0.35% respectively. LME nickel rose 0.59%. Precious metals, as of 11:44, COMEX gold rose 0.83%, and COMEX silver rose 1.61%. Domestic precious metals: SHFE gold rose 1.03%; the most-traded SHFE silver contract rose 3.27%. Additionally, as of the midday close, the most-traded platinum futures contract rose 1.03%, and the most-traded palladium futures contract rose 1.53%. As of the midday close, the most-traded European route shipping contract fell 0.73% to 2,792 points. As of 11:44 on July 21, midday futures market conditions: Spot and fundamentals Silver: US-Iran ceasefire negotiations showed a turning point; silver saw a technical rebound but lacked substantial positive catalysts, with limited rebound strength. The spot market experienced weak supply and demand, deals were near parity, and wait-and-see sentiment was strong... Macro front China: [Ministry of Transport: 15th Five-Year Plan period to focus on promoting low-carbon substitution in transport power and advancing green transformation of transport infrastructure] Cai Tuanjie, Director-General of the Safety Supervision Department and concurrently head of the Transport Services Department of the Ministry of Transport, stated at a State Council Information Office press conference that during the 15th Five-Year Plan period, the country will vigorously promote low-carbon substitution of transport power, advance the green transformation of transport infrastructure, accelerate the optimization and adjustment of the transport structure, continue to deepen pollution prevention and control efforts, improve the carbon emission statistics, accounting, and monitoring system for transportation, and with greater efforts drive the green and low-carbon transformation in the transport sector, laying a solid foundation for building a strong transport country and a beautiful China. (Jin10 Data APP) [China to Allocate 22 Billion Yuan to Support Retirement and Renewal of Old Operating Trucks] On July 21, Cai Tuanjie, Chief Safety Officer and Director-General of the Department of Transport Services at the Ministry of Transport, said at a State Council Information Office press conference that China will continue to implement the campaign for the retirement and renewal of old operating trucks in 2026, allocating 22 billion yuan from ultra-long special government bonds to support this effort, with a focus on replacing them with new energy heavy-duty trucks, and to step up efforts to boost consumption in the new energy heavy-duty truck market through the program of large-scale equipment upgrades and consumer goods trade-ins. (Xinhua News Agency) [China to Build Over 3,000 Charging and Battery Swapping Stations for Electric Heavy-Duty Trucks] On July 21, Cai Tuanjie, Chief Safety Officer and Director-General of the Department of Transport Services at the Ministry of Transport, said at a State Council Information Office press conference that, with a focus on busy freight sections of national expressways and regular national and provincial highways, city clusters and metropolitan areas such as the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region, the Yangtze River Delta, the Guangdong-Hong Kong-Macao Greater Bay Area, and the Chengdu-Chongqing region, as well as key nodes like freight hubs, ports, mining areas, factory zones and industrial parks, China plans to build over 3,000 charging and battery swapping stations for electric heavy-duty trucks, advancing the networking of energy replenishment facilities by connecting points to form lines and networks. (Xinhua News Agency) [PBOC Achieves Net Injection of 16.5 Billion Yuan via Reverse Repo Operations Today] The PBOC conducted 253 billion yuan in 7-day reverse repo operations today. With 236.5 billion yuan of reverse repos maturing today, this resulted in a net injection of 16.5 billion yuan for the day. On the dollar side: As of 11:44, the US dollar index was flat at 100.97. "Fed Whisperer" Nick Timiraos: Based on estimates that convert PPI and CPI data into PCE terms, U.S. core PCE for June is expected to rise mildly by 0.18% (up 3.3% YoY), which would mark the lowest monthly increase since November last year. The overall PCE for June is expected to decline 0.07%, bringing the 12-month YoY increase down to 3.7%. According to the CME "FedWatch": The probability of the Fed keeping rates unchanged in July is 84.5%, while the probability of a cumulative 25-basis-point rate hike is 15.5%. The probability of unchanged rates by the September meeting is 36%, that of a cumulative 25bp hike is 55.1%, and that of a cumulative 50bp hike is 8.9%. On other currencies: A forex strategist at Commerzbank said that, given escalating tensions in the Middle East and rising energy prices, the euro should benefit if the European Central Bank strongly signals its willingness to raise rates further. The ECB is expected to keep rates unchanged this week but to hike again in September. If the U.S.-Iran conflict escalates further, how clearly the ECB signals its readiness to continue raising rates beyond September will be a decisive factor in limiting downside room for EUR/USD. Mitsubishi UFJ strategists noted that a consecutive rate hike by the European Central Bank this week was highly unlikely, with even hawkish officials such as Bundesbank President Joachim Nagel indicating a preference for holding rates steady. The continued rebound in energy prices supports expectations for a further 25bp hike in September. Eurozone interest rate markets have almost fully priced in two more ECB rate hikes by year-end, pushing short-term rates back near their highs for the year. Softer US inflation data has weakened the impact of rising energy prices on expectations for US Fed interest rate tightening, shifting the price spread in favor of the euro. (Jin10 Data APP) Data-wise: On the day, data including Switzerland's June trade balance, the UK's May ILO unemployment rate for the three months to May, UK June public sector net borrowing, UK June unemployment rate, UK June claimant count change, Germany's July ZEW economic sentiment index, the Eurozone's July ZEW economic sentiment index, and the US weekly ADP employment change for the week ending July 4 are due for release. Crude Oil: As of 11:44, both oil benchmarks traded lower, with WTI down 0.34% and Brent down 0.68%. Market hopes for US-Iran conflict negotiations weighed on oil prices. Despite a pullback on Tuesday, Middle East tensions remained a potential market disruption. Threats from Houthi forces to blockade Red Sea export routes kept the market focused on whether Saudi Arabian exports would be impacted. BlackRock strategists believe there is currently no evidence that an escalation in the Middle East would cause a severe enough shock to economic growth to alter the market's risk appetite stance. (Wall Street CN) Spot Market Roundup: ► ► ► ► ► ► ► ► ► ► ►

China has reportedly increased its gold reserves significantly in recent months, with the actual figures potentially much higher than official reports suggest. In May and June 2026, China declared increases of 9.95 tonnes and 14.93 tonnes respectively, marking the 20th consecutive month of accumulation. Analysts speculate that actual purchases could surpass these figures by a significant margin, potentially indicating a strategic move by China to bolster its gold holdings amidst declining gold prices. The ongoing accumulation by China comes at a time when gold prices have seen a 16% decline in the second quarter of 2026. Despite this, the People’s Bank of China has tripled its monthly gold purchases from March to June, suggesting a robust strategy to enhance its reserves. Market participants are closely watching these developments, as the discrepancy between reported and actual holdings could have implications for gold market dynamics. Markets appear to be interpreting China’s actions as consistent with increased demand for gold, which could influence price movement. Some analysts suggest that China’s actual gold reserves might be double the reported figures, potentially up to 5,500 tonnes. This ongoing accumulation is seen as a strategic maneuver to diversify and strengthen China’s financial standing. Key Takeaways China’s increased gold reserves appear consistent with a strategy to strengthen its financial position, despite declining gold prices. Market pricing suggests that China’s accumulation could drive demand, potentially supporting higher gold prices in the near term. Analysts estimate China’s actual gold holdings could be significantly higher than reported, indicating unreported sovereign accumulation. What to Watch Observers will be attentive to any further announcements from the People’s Bank of China regarding additional gold purchases. Upcoming geopolitical developments, such as shifts in U.S. monetary policy or global economic conditions, could influence the market’s interpretation of China’s strategy. Market participants will also monitor movements in gold prices, particularly in light of potential catalysts like central bank actions or geopolitical tensions, which could impact the likelihood of gold reaching higher price targets by August 1, 2026. Source: https://cryptobriefing.com/china-quietly-stockpiling-gold-as-reserves-rise-amid-price-decline/

July 16, 2026 Silver is not behaving like a cleaner version of gold. It fell hard this week even as the Iran story worsened, and that tells you the real trade is now split between fear, rates and industrial demand. You can see the tension in the tape. The Wall Street Journal reported that silver futures fell 2.83% on July 15 to $57.11 a troy ounce, their lowest close since Dec. 4, 2025, even as the US-Iran conflict kept pressure on energy markets. That is not what a simple haven story should look like. It is what happens when a metal has two buyers in the market and several reasons to sell at once. President Trump reversed his proposed 20% Strait of Hormuz toll on July 14 and the US reimposed a naval blockade on Iranian ports, according to The Wall Street Journal. The Guardian reported the next day that Iran threatened to halt Middle East energy exports after renewed US strikes and attacks around the Strait. Oil moved higher on that risk. Gold failed to take full advantage of it. Silver did worse. That matters. If you are buying silver only because missiles are flying near a shipping chokepoint, you are buying the wrong story. The squeeze is still real The stronger case for silver sits away from the war headlines. The Financial Times, citing the World Silver Survey from Metals Focus and the Silver Institute, reported that the market is heading for a sixth straight annual deficit of roughly 46 million ounces. Solar demand is no longer climbing in a straight line, either. The same report said industrial demand is expected to decline as solar manufacturers use less silver and substitute cheaper materials, with solar demand forecast to fall 19% in 2026. Normally, that would be enough to cool the story. It hasn't. The problem is that silver's industrial demand is not just a solar panel chart anymore. Electronics, grid equipment, electric vehicles and data centers all pull on the same physical market. You do not need to dress that up. Silver conducts electricity better than any other metal, and in a world trying to move more power through more machines, that property has a price. The AI buildout keeps adding weight. AP reported this week that artificial intelligence investment by major technology companies is projected to exceed $700 billion in 2026, with Alphabet, Amazon, Meta and Microsoft spending heavily on data centers. Tom's Hardware, citing Financial Times first-quarter data, put combined 2026 capital spending by Google, Microsoft, Meta and Amazon at $725 billion, up 77% from the previous year. Those figures are not silver demand numbers by themselves. But they do tell you why the industrial floor under the metal is harder to dismiss than it was in the last cycle. Here is the blunt version: gold has the cleaner fear trade, but silver has the messier and more interesting one. It gets pulled by wars and interest rates, then pulled again by factories and server farms. That makes it more volatile. It also gives it more ways to surprise you. Price targets need some humility There is no need to pretend silver is a sure thing. It just proved the opposite. The metal fell even while Middle East risk was live because higher oil can also mean stickier inflation, higher bond yields and a stronger case for central banks to stay tight. Non-yielding metals hate that setup. Silver hates it more because speculative money tends to leave quickly when the chart breaks. Forecasts should be read with that in mind. J.P. Morgan Global Research has been bullish on silver in its published commodities work, and Kitco has covered the bank's view that prices can average far above recent levels if deficits persist and investment demand returns. That's a serious argument. But it has a ceiling: if prices run too far, solar manufacturers thrift harder, switch pastes faster, or delay purchases. The FT's reporting on falling solar demand is the warning label on every bullish silver note. So the next test is not whether silver can react to another Iran headline. Of course it can. The better test is whether the metal can hold support when the war premium fades and buyers have to justify the price with physical demand, inventories and real industrial orders. Gold is easier to understand. Silver is easier to underestimate. If you are watching the metal now, do not watch only Tehran, Hormuz, oil or the next central bank speech. Watch the deficit numbers from the Silver Institute. Watch Big Tech capital spending, and watch whether solar thrifting starts to bite harder than AI infrastructure adds demand. That is where this trade will be decided, not in one dramatic move above or below $60. Source: https://startupfortune.com/silver-is-being-pulled-two-directions-at-once-and-that-is-exactly-why-it-could-outrun-gold/

July 20, 2026 Since the spring of 2026, something unusual has been unfolding in the gold market. Countries that had been among the world's largest buyers of gold for years have suddenly begun selling their reserves. These sales are taking place quietly. They are not announced publicly, and the transactions only appear in central bank data weeks or even months later. Those who look closely quickly realize that these are not routine portfolio adjustments. Instead, something far more significant is happening right before our eyes, largely unnoticed. What we are witnessing is a silent emergency response to an economic shock that is placing enormous strain on the global financial system: the closure of the Strait of Hormuz as a consequence of the Iran war. The logic becomes clear once the underlying mechanism is understood. Roughly 20% of the world's oil passes through the Strait of Hormuz. If that route is blocked, oil prices rise sharply, forcing oil-importing countries to obtain additional U.S. dollars to pay their energy bills. For a central bank, the fastest way to raise those dollars is by selling its most liquid dollar-denominated assets—typically U.S. Treasury securities. However, once those holdings have been largely exhausted and additional dollars are still required, gold often becomes the only remaining dollar-convertible reserve asset. Turkey Illustrates the Entire Drama No country demonstrates this process more clearly than Turkey. In March 2026, following the U.S. and Israeli military strikes against Iran that began in late February, the Turkish central bank reduced its holdings of U.S. Treasuries from US$15.7 billion to US$1.8 billion —a reduction of nearly 90% in just one month . Once that buffer had been depleted, the central bank turned to its gold reserves. During the first two weeks of the Iran war alone, it sold or pledged approximately 58 tonnes of gold , worth around US$8 billion , from reserves totaling roughly US$130 billion . This was not a strategic shift away from gold. Rather, it was a sign of financial distress. After all, no country willingly sells its gold simply to pay for gasoline and diesel as long as better alternatives remain available. Turkey is not an isolated case. It is merely the most visible example of a broader group of countries that Jay Martin , publisher of the commodity newsletter Capital 10X , describes as "oil-importing emerging markets." This group includes India, Indonesia, Thailand, the Philippines, Egypt, Pakistan, Vietnam, and South Africa . They all share two characteristics: they depend heavily on imported oil, and they hold a significant portion of their national savings in U.S. Treasury securities. When oil prices surge, these countries are among the first to come under financial pressure. The Sri Lanka Pattern: When Running Out of Money Leads to Empty Shelves Sri Lanka's experience in 2022 demonstrates what happens once a country has exhausted its reserves. The country imports nearly everything required to keep its economy functioning—fuel, medicine, and food—and pays for those imports in U.S. dollars. When tourism collapsed during the COVID-19 pandemic, Sri Lanka's foreign exchange reserves fell from US$7.6 billion at the end of 2019 to just US$50 million by the spring of 2022. The consequences were as predictable as they were dramatic. Fuel first became scarce and eventually disappeared altogether. Medicines could no longer be purchased abroad. Food prices skyrocketed, while nationwide power outages lasted for hours at a time. Public anger escalated rapidly. In July 2022, hundreds of thousands of protesters stormed the presidential residence, forcing the country's president to flee. The difference between then and now is crucial. Sri Lanka's crisis resulted from the collapse of tourism and affected only one country. A global energy shock, by contrast, affects many countries simultaneously. The chain reaction, however, is identical. Every country that sells U.S. Treasuries puts downward pressure on bond prices, making other countries nervous and encouraging them to sell as well. Each sale increases the likelihood of the next. What Washington Is Really Doing—And What It Reveals Two quiet actions by the U.S. government demonstrate how seriously Washington views the situation. First, the United States is drawing down its Strategic Petroleum Reserve at a record pace. Anyone who believes this is primarily intended to help American motorists ahead of the congressional elections in November is not entirely wrong—but that explanation does not tell the whole story. The U.S. is also shipping part of those reserves overseas, an unusual move given that the Strategic Petroleum Reserve is intended for domestic emergencies. Second, in an effort to reduce mounting pressure on the U.S. Treasury market, the U.S. Treasury Department has quietly eased sanctions on Russian oil twice. This is occurring in the middle of a war in which Russia is on the opposing side. That step is equally extraordinary and suggests that the United States itself is under considerable pressure. The motivation behind both measures is the same. Washington wants to prevent vulnerable emerging-market economies from collapsing and triggering a wave of Treasury selling that could destabilize the U.S. bond market. Falling prices for U.S. government bonds mean weaker investor demand and higher borrowing costs for issuers. Neither outcome is desirable for U.S. President Donald Trump, who has repeatedly expressed his preference for lower interest rates. If the system were truly stable, none of these extraordinary measures would be necessary. Their implementation suggests that the pressure is not confined to individual emerging markets. The United States itself now finds it necessary to intervene in order to stabilize global financial markets. Source： https://goldinvest.de/en/why-countries-are-selling-their-gold-and-what-s-really-behind-it