From July 1, a 50% out-of-quota tariff grabs the headlines — but for stainless steel, the real rule change is "melt-and-pour" origin, and it rewrites who counts as the producer.

Alcoa has signed a gas offtake agreement with Woodside Energy to supply a total of 31.1 petajoules of natural gas to its Western Australian alumina refineries from 2027 to 2030. The agreement strengthens near-term energy security for Alcoa's operations while supporting its long-term energy strategy, including gas supply beyond 2030 and greater integration of renewable energy. Alcoa employs around 4,000 people in Western Australia, and its gas-powered alumina refineries are among the lowest-carbon alumina refineries globally. The alumina produced at these facilities is used as the primary raw material for aluminium production.

The UK Government is strengthening its Critical Minerals Strategy by investing in domestic extraction, processing, recycling and supply chain development to enhance resource security and economic resilience. The Aluminum Federation (ALFED) welcomed the move, noting that aluminum was officially designated as both a Critical Mineral and a Growth Mineral in 2024 under the UK's Vision 2035 framework. ALFED urged policymakers to place greater emphasis on aluminum recycling, remelting, sorting and supply security advanced processing to strengthen domestic supply chains and promote circular manufacturing. The federation highlighted that recycled aluminum can be reused indefinitely while requiring only around 5% of the energy needed to produce primary aluminum, making it a key material for low-carbon manufacturing and long-ter.

Emirates Global Aluminum (EGA) has officially inaugurated its aluminum recycling plant in Al Taweelah, Abu Dhabi, with an annual production capacity of 185,000 tonnes, making it the largest recycling facility in the UAE. The plant processes post-consumer and selected pre-consumer aluminum scrap into low-carbon premium billets and T-bars under the RevivAL brand, while also producing recycled products blended with EGA's solar-powered CelestiAL and nuclear-powered MinimAL aluminum. Commercial production began in February 2026, with full ramp-up expected within six months depending on scrap availability. Including this project and a planned acquisition in Italy, EGA's global aluminum recycling capacity has exceeded 400,000 tonnes per year, with another 200,000 tonnes under development in Europe and the US.

Aluminum scrap is rapidly emerging as a strategic resource as the global industry accelerates its transition toward low-carbon production. Secondary aluminum requires only around 5% of the energy needed for primary production, making recycled metal increasingly attractive for both economic and environmental reasons. However, tightening scrap availability has intensified global competition. Europe is estimated to require an additional 1 million tones of aluminum scrap to meet its circular economy goals, while China has increased scrap imports and India is seeking to secure overseas supply amid concerns over potential EU export restrictions. At the same time, major investments in recycling capacity, together with carbon policies such as the EU's CBAM, are reinforcing the importance of recycled aluminum. Industry observers believe future competitiveness will increasingly depend on access to scrap resources, recycling efficiency and low-carbon supply chains.

[Destocking Accelerates to Provide Support, Export Concerns Limit Rebound Room] The US Fed's hawkish pivot boosted the US dollar index, weighing on nonferrous metal prices. The Middle East geopolitical situation has been somewhat volatile but shows no signs of deterioration. Under macro headwinds, aluminum prices in and outside China fell. In the short term, bearish factors dominate, and aluminum prices are expected to remain in the doldrums.