Published: Aug 13, 2026 - 1:26 AM (Kitco News) – Spot gold will trade on either side of $4,500 per ounce at the end of 2026, according to a new survey published by the London Bullion Market Association (LBMA). The LBMA surveyed 16 professional analysts in July, and even as gold was trading at its 2026 lows, frequently dipping below $4,000 per ounce during the month, the average of the experts’ year-end price predictions was over 12% higher. The highest year-end prediction from the survey’s respondents was $5,100 per ounce, representing a gain of an additional 15% from current prices, while the lowest forecast was $3,879, $100 below the 2026 low set in early July. “The average price during [the first 7 month of 2026] was $4,595.75, some $135 below the average (for the whole year) predicted by 28 professional analysts polled by LBMA in January,” they noted. “The mid-year pulse check provides an update to these figures and reveals that expectations have come into line with the reality of the first seven months.” The LBMA said the projected full-year average gold price is now $4,604, with forecasted price highs during H2 2026 ranging from $4,872 to $5,800, and the lowest price forecast from respondents coming in at $3,450. “The analysts’ list of drivers of the gold price - geopolitical issues notably in the Middle East, US inflation, the Federal Reserve’s direction of travel, central bank buying - has not materially altered since the beginning of the year although the emphasis has changed with greater attention being paid to the Fed under the new leadership of Kevin Warsh,” they wrote. “Of the 16 respondents to the survey, five cited Iran as of primary concern, one focused on central banks’ continuing appetite for gold, and the remainder listed the Fed, and its response to US inflation numbers.” On Jan. 20, one month before the outbreak of the Iran conflict and the sharp rise in oil prices and parallel drop in precious metals, the LBMA published its annual Precious Metals Analyst Survey , which projected gold prices to average $4,741.97 an ounce in 2026. “Analysts expect the metal to average 38% above last year’s levels, fuelled by expectations of lower U.S. real rates, continued Fed easing and unwavering central-bank diversification away from the dollar,” the LBMA said in its report. “Geopolitical tension continues to cement gold ’s role as the world’s premier safe haven.” However, looking beyond the headline forecast, individual expectations showed a broad range of projections. The report said the forecasting range this year is $3,700, with the most bearish target at $3,450 an ounce and the most bullish target at $7,150 an ounce. The report added that the forecasting range for gold was up 103% from last year’s price movement and more than 200% higher than analyst expectations at the start of last year. Julia Du, commodity strategist at ICBC Standard Bank, was the most bullish on gold, calling for the yellow metal to hit $7,150 this year, with an average annual price target of $6,050. She expected prices to hold support at $4,100 an ounce. “I expect 2026 to be a year of heightened geopolitical risk and strong safe-haven demand, allowing gold to continue the volatile yet upward trend. Central banks are likely to keep adding to reserves, institutional investors will increase portfolio allocations, and retail demand – especially in Latin America – should remain robust. Combined with continued Fed rate cuts, these forces support a bullish bias,” Du said in her analysis. Robin Bhar, founder of Robin Bhar Metals Consulting, had the most bearish forecast, seeing gold prices averaging around $4,000 an ounce this year. He saw support at $3,500 an ounce, with prices peaking at $5,000 an ounce. “A perfect storm of factors is providing a strong tailwind to gold prices,” Bhar said in his forecast. “Economic and heightened political uncertainty, including concerns about Fed independence, will ensure gold remains a vital asset to provide a hedge. Geopolitical risks continue to bubble in various hot spots, adding to inflationary risks and continued safe-haven demand for gold. Central bank buying should continue to be an important support factor, as will continued portfolio diversification and speculative money on the long side.” Alexander Zumpfe, precious metals trader at Heraeus, provided the lowest support level at $3,450 an ounce, but saw prices peaking this year at $5,200 an ounce. Zumpfe added that while he expected periods of profit-taking and consolidation, the market remained well supported by robust investment demand.

August 13, 2026 The Chinese gold market showed a clear dichotomy in the first half of 2026: whilst demand for jewellery slumped amid record prices, physical investment products recorded strong growth. According to data from the China Gold Association (CGA), China’s total consumption rose slightly by 1.23 per cent to 511.41 tonnes (previous year: 505.21 tonnes). Investment demand offsets slump in jewellery High gold retail prices and changes to tax rules had a noticeable dampening effect on consumers. Nevertheless, there was a significant shift towards physical assets as a store of value: • Jewellery: −33.88 per cent to 132.13 tonnes • Bullion & coins: +28.42% to 339.34 tonnes • Industry & other: −2.90% to 39.94 tonnes Retail investors made targeted use of price corrections to make additional purchases via domestic banks. As a result, the investment sector more than fully offset the slump in the jewellery sector. Domestic production slumps – strategic focus on physical metal In parallel with the shift in demand, domestic supply contracted: China’s mining output from its own raw materials fell by 14.62 per cent to 152.91 tonnes. The main cause was regulatory environmental requirements and safety inspections, which led to temporary shutdowns. By contrast, the processing of imported ores rose by 4.62 per cent to 77.08 tonnes. Overall, domestic production thus fell by 9.01 per cent to 229.99 tonnes. For commodity investors, market expert Willem Middelkoop ( Commodity Discovery Fund ) places these developments within a broader macroeconomic context. He sees a familiar pattern in China’s approach: the state is systematically using price dips to make strategic purchases – much as it has done with oil and copper. Middelkoop does not interpret the recent consistent restriction by major Chinese banks on retail investors’ access to leveraged paper and futures trading on the Shanghai Gold Exchange (SGE) as a market crisis. Rather, he sees it as a state-directed measure to defuse speculative overheating and a targeted redirection of private capital away from paper-based derivatives towards physically backed holdings. By curbing leveraged trades, financial institutions are reducing systemic risks in the domestic market and forcing capital to be tied up directly in physical assets. China thus remains the key driver of the global market: whilst high prices are dampening cyclical jewellery consumption, they are accelerating the strategic, long-term accumulation of physical metal. Against the backdrop of declining domestic production, this development is simultaneously exacerbating China’s structural dependence on imports of raw gold and ores – a trend that is likely to increasingly constrain physical liquidity on Western trading markets. Source： https://goldinvest.de/en/china-s-appetite-for-gold-is-growing-investors-are-increasingly-turning-to-gold-bars-and-coins

[SMM Express] OCBC has expanded its digital precious metals platform to allow retail investors to trade platinum and palladium bullion through its mobile app, starting from just 0.01 oz. Based on recent prices, the minimum investment is equivalent to around S$23 for platinum and S$18 for palladium, significantly lowering the entry barrier for retail participation. The move comes as investment interest in PGMs grows, with OCBC Group Research maintaining a bullish outlook and forecasting platinum above US$2,000/oz and palladium above US$1,500/oz by H1 2027. Unlike gold, PGM prices are strongly influenced by industrial demand from automotive, industrial and clean-energy applications as well as highly concentrated supply chains. The expansion could broaden the investor base for platinum and palladium, potentially supporting investment demand and market liquidity. With both metals already facing evolving supply-demand dynamics, increased retail access through digital platforms could become an additional source of demand alongside industrial consumption and institutional investment.

[SMM Express] Platinum futures climbed to around USD 1,780/oz, approaching an eight-week high as the precious metals complex strengthened. The move was supported by improving investment demand, with increased bullion holdings among Chinese institutional investors providing additional momentum as market volatility heightened. Meanwhile, AI and data-centre expansion could become a new source of PGM demand. Valterra Platinum estimates current AI-related PGM demand at around 200,000–400,000 oz annually and expects it could increase fivefold by 2030, supported by PGMs’ electrical and thermal properties. The longer-term outlook remains supported by a structural platinum market deficit and constrained mine supply, particularly from South Africa. However, sustained higher prices could encourage greater recycling and eventually place pressure on some areas of demand, leaving supply constraints and emerging technology demand as key factors to watch.

(Kitco News) - Gold's recent correction has likely run its course as the key macro headwinds that pressured the precious metal are beginning to fade, according to one Canadian research firm, which argues that real interest rates have likely peaked and the U.S. dollar will eventually turn from a headwind into a tailwind for bullion. After establishing a neutral position in Spring, Commodity analysts at BCA Research now see attractive value and are recommending investors start accumulating gold with a stop-loss at $3,900 an ounce. "The worst of real rates' headwind to gold is likely behind us," the firm said in its latest report, adding that while geopolitical risks tied to the Middle East could still create short-term volatility, its base case is for U.S. real rates to remain broadly stable over the coming months, helping gold establish a bottom. Speaking with Kitco News, Roukaya Ibrahim, chief commodities strategist at BCA Research, said investors should focus less on inflation and more on the outlook for real yields. "The recommendation to buy now basically embeds that real rates and the U.S. dollar are not going to rise further from here, and that headwind is already gone," she said, noting that gold has held the $4,000-an-ounce level despite recent macro headwinds. BCA's report argues that gold has returned to trading primarily as a macro asset after several years during which central bank buying overwhelmed traditional market drivers. The research firm believes real rates and the U.S. dollar have once again become the dominant forces determining bullion prices, while central bank purchases now provide a floor under the market rather than acting as the primary catalyst for further gains. Although markets have priced in additional Federal Reserve tightening, Ibrahim said she sees little risk that policymakers become more hawkish than current expectations. "Even if the Fed does hike, I don't see them hiking by more than what's already priced in," she said. "The odds of that are quite low" unless oil prices experience a significant and sustained surge that pushes inflation expectations materially higher. That view underpins BCA's bullish stance on gold . Ibrahim said gold does not require imminent rate cuts to rally—only confirmation that the peak in real yields is already behind the market. "The headwind from opportunity costs is going to ease, and it's going to turn into a tailwind," she said. "Not because the U.S. economy is going to crack, but because the tightening is already priced in." BCA also pushes back against the common perception that gold is primarily an inflation hedge. Instead, the firm argues that inflation only benefits bullion when it undermines confidence in the Federal Reserve and suppresses real yields. " Gold 's ability to act as an inflation hedge is overstated. Real rates, rather than inflation, determine gold's performance," the report said. As long as inflation expectations remain well anchored and the Fed maintains credibility, higher inflation initially weighs on gold by pushing real yields higher. Even if another oil-driven inflation shock emerges, Ibrahim expects any rise in real rates to prove temporary. "If we do get a price spike and inflation spike, then probably very quickly the attention is going to shift from it being an inflation story to being a growth story," she said. That transition would eventually cap the Fed's hawkishness and establish "a bottom for gold prices." The firm also sees longer-term support coming from structural forces, including reserve diversification away from the U.S. dollar and persistent central bank buying. While BCA believes the pace of official-sector purchases has likely peaked, it argues that ongoing buying continues to justify elevated gold prices and should prevent a return to 2022 price levels absent a shift by central banks to become net sellers. Over the longer term, BCA also expects the greenback to weaken as structural pressures build. "The greenback will shift from being a headwind to a tailwind to the yellow metal," the report concluded. Source： https://www.kitco.com/news/article/2026-08-06/now-time-buy-gold-bca-sees-bullish-opportunity-real-yields-peak

Published: 3 Aug 2026, 17:30 BST RBC’s high scenario keeps gold near $5,300 through 2027 as central-bank buying and stronger Asian investment demand cushion bullion on the downside. The Gold price in US Dollars slipped back towards $4,037 on Monday after ending last week near $4,072, but analysts at RBC Capital Markets still see a route towards $5,300 under its bullish scenario. The bank’s latest forecast puts gold at an average $5,132 in the third quarter, rising to $5,203 in the fourth quarter. Its 2027 high case averages $5,296, with quarterly forecasts between $5,249 and $5,321. RBC’s central scenario is more restrained, forecasting $4,558 this quarter, $4,370 in the fourth quarter and an average of $4,225 in 2027. The bullish case rests partly on demand holding up better than the headline data suggest. “In a YTD period that has seen a nearly $1,500/oz range for gold prices, Q2 ended with some notable dynamics,” RBC said. Central banks bought 289 tonnes during the second quarter after a slower opening quarter, outpacing both jewellery demand and bar-and-coin purchases. RBC said the official sector remained a “consistent positive undercurrent”, adding that Poland, Uzbekistan, China and Kazakhstan were the largest reported buyers this year. Gold traded between roughly $3,963 and $4,202 over the past month before returning towards $4,070. Investor demand in Asia is another important support. RBC highlighted “underlying shifts in Asia towards investor products, at the detriment of consumer products like jewellery”, arguing that the move still “nets out positive for total demand”. The bank added that Asian markets continue to dominate global bar-and-coin demand. Gold Outlook: Official Buying Cushions the Downside Exchange-traded fund demand weakened during the second quarter, but RBC noted that “Q3 has started off with inflows and YTD flows are positive”. That helps explain why the bank’s high scenario remains well above current prices despite gold’s difficult year. XAU/USD is down around 5.7% in 2026 and continues to trade below its 20-day and 50-day moving averages. The price of Gold remains lower for the year after falling sharply from January’s peak above $5,500. RBC’s low scenario still warns of substantial downside, with gold averaging $3,729 in the third quarter and $3,661 during 2027. Its high case, however, keeps the prospect of $5,300 gold firmly alive if central-bank purchases remain strong and investment demand continues shifting towards bullion. Source： https://www.exchangerates.org.uk/news/46716/2026-08-03-gold-price-forecast-predictions-2026-2027-rbc-sees-bullion-reaching-5-321.html