On March 27, the 2026 SMM (21st) Lead & Zinc Conference and Industry Expo, organized by SMM, wrapped up successfully at Howard Johnson Agile Plaza in Chengdu, Sichuan!

Recent volatility in the Indonesian commodities sector has been driven by mixed signals regarding new fiscal policies. Market participants are currently evaluating the implications of two distinct regulatory mechanisms: a broader windfall tax on bulk commodities like coal, nickel, and a targeted export duty. The conflation of these two policies has generated significant market uncertainty, culminating in a sharp spike in global nickel prices this week. To understand the current market anxiety, which culminated in a sharp spike in global nickel prices this week, it is essential to unpack the timeline of these policy discussions, differentiate the fiscal mechanisms at play, and assess the likelihood of their implementation. Background: From Broad Windfall Deliberations to Targeted Export Tariffs The narrative surrounding new commodity taxes in Indonesia did not emerge overnight; rather, it has evolved through distinct phases of policy signaling. The current policy discourse has evolved in phases. Initial discussions, highlighted by statements from Coordinating Minister for Economic Affairs Airlangga Hartarto on Mar 13, 2026, focused on the potential implementation of a windfall tax. This broader fiscal measure was aimed at capturing excess margins from exporters of coal, palm oil, and base metals, such as nickel, gold, and copper during periods of elevated global prices, functioning primarily as a macroeconomic revenue-generation tool. However, the conversation shifted dramatically on March 25, 2026. According to Bloomberg, news broke that Indonesia’s President had officially approved an export tax specifically targeting coal and nickel. This headline acted as an immediate catalyst, sending LME and SHFE nickel prices spiking. The confusion currently gripping the market stems from the conflation of these two distinct policy trajectories: the older, revenue-focused windfall tax concept championed by economic ministers, and the newly approved, strategically focused nickel export tax aimed at forcing further downstream industrialization. Analysis & Understanding: The Precedent of the "Windfall Tax" To accurately gauge the impact of these rumors, it is critical to understand that the concept of a "windfall tax" is not entirely unprecedented in Indonesia's regulatory framework, particularly for bulk commodities. There has actually been a windfall tax structure in place previously, though often masked under the nomenclature of progressive royalties and non-tax state revenues (PNBP). For the coal sector, the government already utilizes a tiered royalty system pegged to the Harga Batubara Acuan (HBA) benchmark. As coal prices escalate into higher brackets, the royalty percentage automatically increases, effectively acting as a windfall capture mechanism. Similarly before, the nickel sector utilizes the Domestic Benchmark Price (HPM) and associated royalty structures to adjust to global price rallies. It is crucial to note that the government has previously experimented with specific windfall profit provisions for downstream products, though the regulatory stance has recently hardened. For instance, under Government Regulation (GR) No. 26/2022, a unique windfall profit incentive was applied to nickel matte: when prices exceeded $21,000 per ton, the royalty rate was actually reduced from the standard 2% to 1%. (Old Version) However, this accommodating policy was explicitly abolished under the recent GR No. 19/2025. The removal of this incentive underscores a definitive shift toward more aggressive state revenue capture. Consequently, the recent "windfall tax" rumors primarily concern further tightening these existing brackets or introducing a supplementary surcharge on operating margins above a specific baseline. (New Version) Conversely, the newly approved nickel export tax serves a different primary function. Therefore, it is completely different than the concept of windfall tax. Rather than merely earning from peak profits, an export duty on semi-processed nickel (like NPI, MHP, FeNi, and Nickel Matte) is a structural tool designed to penalize the export of lower-value products. It is the natural continuation of Indonesia’s downstreaming ( hilirisasi ) agenda, intended to force producers to build stainless steel and EV battery precursor plants domestically in Indonesia, rather than shipping intermediate goods to other countries. While a windfall tax fluctuates with market prices, an export tax acts as a permanent structural cost added to the global supply chain. Conclusion: Imminent Implementation Amidst Ongoing Deliberations Despite definitive headlines regarding executive approval and the targeted April 1, 2026 implementation date, the exact implementation details are currently under review by the relevant ministries. Currently, specific details, including exactly how the proposed 5%, 8%, and 11% tiers might translate from coal to specific nickel material classifications (e.g., NPI, MHP, and high-grade matte), must be urgently finalized ahead of the April deadline. The Ministry of Energy and Mineral Resources (ESDM), the Ministry of Finance, and the Coordinating Ministry for Maritime and Investment Affairs are working to balance state revenue optimization with the need to maintain the global cost-competitiveness of domestic smelters. This deliberative phase should not be interpreted as a policy reversal. According to SMM's understanding and industry checks, the implementation of these fiscal measures is highly probable. While the exact rollout of tariffs may be structured to mitigate immediate operational shocks to the domestic smelting sector, the fundamental policy direction indicates that the era of tariff-free exports for intermediate nickel products might decisively coming to an end.

Among precious and rare metals, osmium is a niche yet irreplaceable material, overshadowed by gold, silver, platinum and palladium but critical for high-end industry and scientific research thanks to its unique physical and chemical properties. This report breaks down osmium’s core attributes, supply, applications and market traits to unveil the “densest natural metal”. I. Basic Profile: A Distinct Platinum Group Metal Osmium (Os, atomic number 76) is a Group Ⅷ transition metal and part of the platinum group metals (PGMs), extremely scarce in nature. It has no independent deposits, only extracted and purified via platinum ore smelting alongside platinum, iridium, ruthenium, rhodium and palladium, ruling out large-scale standalone mining. Its standout properties: unmatched density (22.59g/cm³ at 20℃, higher than gold and platinum), exceptional heat resistance (melting point 3033℃, boiling point over 5000℃), and high hardness & corrosion resistance (Mohs hardness 7). It is highly brittle with poor plasticity, mostly used in powder or alloy forms. Key Safety Warning: Osmium oxidizes to toxic, volatile osmium tetroxide (OsO₄) when heated above 100℃ in air. Full-process operations (smelting, storage, transport, processing) require inert gas protection, raising production and application thresholds. II. Supply Landscape: Extreme Scarcity & Monopolized Output Osmium is far rarer than gold and platinum, with a crustal abundance of just 0.001ppm, one of the lowest stable elements globally. Proven recoverable reserves are extremely limited and highly concentrated. Global output hinges entirely on platinum mining and smelting, staying at a tiny scale: annual global production is roughly 1 ton (data from International Platinum Group Metals Association), while China’s annual output is less than 100kg. South Africa and Russia dominate global osmium resources and smelting capacity, forming a highly monopolized, inelastic supply market. Tight supply-demand balance persists, supporting strong price resilience and volatility. III. Core Applications: High-End & Irreplaceable Scenarios Despite low production and narrow application scope, osmium is a rigid material for high-precision sectors with no low-cost substitutes, focusing on four key fields: Special Hard Alloys: Osmium-based alloys excel in hardness, wear and corrosion resistance, used for high-precision bearings (luxury watches, instruments), premium pen nibs, medical scalpels and high-end mechanical wear parts. Industrial Catalysis: Osmium and its compounds act as high-efficiency catalysts for fine chemical and organic synthesis (hydrogenation, oxidation), boosting process efficiency and product purity with stable low-volume demand. Scientific Research: Toxic osmium tetroxide is an irreplaceable stain for electron microscopy samples in materials and life sciences; high-purity osmium powder serves as a specialty lab consumable. Aerospace & Military: Leveraging high density and thermal stability, osmium is used for specialty high-temperature components, precision guidance parts and high-end electrical contacts, with high added value and growing demand amid industrial upgrading. IV. Core Market Traits Osmium is a niche PGM marked by extreme resource scarcity, monopolized inelastic supply, rigid high-end demand and total irreplaceability. Unlike bulk commodities, its market is driven by supply shifts, high-end industrial demand and compliance costs, with a small scale and low trading frequency, remaining a critical material for high-end industry and scientific research.

In the fields of precious and rare metals, compared with well-known categories such as gold, silver, and platinum-group metals, osmium has always remained a niche yet highly distinctive presence. With its unmatched physicochemical properties, it has become an indispensable key material in high-end industry and scientific research. Even though it receives limited market attention, it still possesses irreplaceable value. This article will provide a comprehensive breakdown of osmium metal, covering its basic properties, resource supply, application scenarios, and market characteristics, to offer a full understanding of this “king of density.” I. First Encounter with Osmium: A Hardcore Outlier Among the Platinum-Group Metals Osmium, with the chemical symbol Os and atomic number 76, belongs to the platinum-group metals. It is a Group VIII transition metal on the periodic table and also one of the rarest metals found in nature. As one of the six major members of the platinum-group metal family, osmium has no independent ore deposits and is commonly associated with platinum, iridium, ruthenium, rhodium, and palladium. It can only be recovered through purification during platinum ore smelting and cannot be extracted through standalone large-scale mining. This inherent characteristic directly defines its scarcity. Osmium’s physicochemical properties are truly unique in the world of metals, with highly recognizable core characteristics: first, it has the highest density in the world. Under standard conditions at 20°C, its density reaches 22.59 g/cm³, far exceeding that of gold (19.32 g/cm³) and platinum (21.45 g/cm³). It is currently the densest naturally occurring metal known, and at the same volume, it weighs far more than various conventional precious metals. Second, it demonstrates excellent high-temperature resistance, with a melting point of 3,033°C and a boiling point exceeding 5,000°C. It remains highly stable in high-temperature environments and can adapt to various industrial and scientific applications under extreme heat. Third, it has outstanding hardness and strong corrosion resistance. With a Mohs hardness of 7, it is hard, durable, and wear-resistant, and is difficult to corrode under conventional acidic or alkaline conditions. However, its drawbacks are also quite evident: it is highly brittle and has extremely poor plasticity, making it impossible to process through conventional mechanical methods, so it is mostly used in powder or alloy form. A key safety precaution must be emphasized here: when osmium metal is heated in air to above 100°C, it slowly oxidizes to form osmium tetroxide (OsO₄). This substance is highly irritating, highly volatile, and somewhat toxic. Therefore, the entire process involving osmium, including production smelting, storage and transportation, and deep processing, must be carried out under the protection of inert gas and in strict compliance with operational standards. These exceptionally high compliance and control requirements further raise the barriers to osmium’s production and application. II. Extreme Scarcity: Osmium’s Resource Endowment and Supply Landscape Osmium is far rarer than commonly recognized precious metals such as gold and platinum, and it can be regarded as a “niche treasure” in the precious metals sector. Relevant data show that the average abundance of osmium in the Earth’s crust is only about 0.001 ppm, making it one of the least abundant stable elements in the crust. Globally, identified recoverable reserves are extremely limited, and resource distribution is highly concentrated, without the formation of widely distributed ore deposits. Supply side, the scarcity of osmium is even more pronounced. As there are no standalone mines, global osmium production is entirely dependent on platinum ore mining and smelting, with capacity remaining at an extremely low level year-round. Global annual production is about 1 mt (data from the International Platinum Group Metals Association), while China’s annual production is less than 100 kg, with supply far below that of other platinum group metals. From the global supply landscape, traditional major platinum group metal-producing countries such as South Africa and Russia control the vast majority of the world’s osmium resources and smelting capacity. Industry supply shows a highly monopolized pattern, with extremely low supply elasticity. Minor changes in mining progress, geopolitical conditions, environmental protection-related controls policies, and platinum group metal smelting capacity all directly affect global osmium supply. This dual characteristic of “inherent resource scarcity + constrained supply” has kept the osmium market in a long-term tight supply-demand balance and has also given it strong price resilience and fluctuation elasticity, securing a unique position in the rare metals market. 3. Exclusive to High-End, Cutting-Edge Applications: Core Application Scenarios of Osmium Although osmium has limited production and a relatively narrow range of applications, its exceptional physical and chemical properties have enabled it to take root precisely in high-end niche fields, making it an irreplaceable core material in many advanced applications. Downstream demand is concentrated and highly rigid, with no low-cost substitutes currently available. Its core applications are mainly concentrated in four major fields: 1. Special Hard Alloys: Core Raw Material for High-End Wear-Resistant Components Osmium-based alloys made by melting osmium with metals such as iridium and platinum combine ultra-high hardness, wear resistance, and corrosion resistance, making them key core materials for high-end precision instruments. These alloys are widely used in high-precision bearings for high-end watches and precision instruments, premium fountain pen nibs, professional turntable styluses, medical precision scalpels, and high-end wear-resistant mechanical components. They can significantly improve component service life and durability, making them suitable for long-term, high-load, high-wear operating environments, and they are core wear-resistant materials in the high-end manufacturing sector. 2. Industrial Catalysis: Dedicated High-Efficiency Additive for Fine Chemicals Osmium and its compounds have excellent catalytic activity and serve as dedicated catalysts in certain fine chemical and organic synthesis reactions. Especially in special chemical processes such as hydrogenation and oxidation reactions, they offer high catalytic efficiency and strong reaction selectivity, effectively optimizing process flows and improving product purity and yield. Although the unit consumption of osmium catalysts is extremely low, they are rigid process necessities and are difficult to replace with other common metal catalysts, resulting in relatively strong downstream demand stability. 3. Scientific Research and Detection: Essential Specialty Consumable for Laboratories Although osmium tetroxide is toxic, it has irreplaceable value in scientific research. It is a high-quality staining agent for biological samples and microscopic material sections under electron microscopes, significantly enhancing the clarity and contrast of observed samples, and is an indispensable experimental reagent in frontier research fields such as materials science and life sciences. Meanwhile, high-purity osmium powder was also widely used in high-end scientific research experiments and the R&D of specialized new materials, serving as a niche but essential consumable for major research institutes and high-end laboratories. 4. High-End Specialized Fields: Core Components for Military and Aerospace Applications Leveraging its core advantages of high density, high-temperature resistance, and high stability, osmium was also applied in specialized high-temperature components for aerospace and military applications, precision guidance components, as well as niche scenarios such as high-end electrical contacts and wear-resistant coatings. These applications were all concentrated in cutting-edge, high-precision sectors. Although the volume of each individual application was small, the product value-added was extremely high. Moreover, with the technological iteration and development of high-end manufacturing and the military and aerospace industries, related demand had the potential for steady growth. IV. Summary of the Core Characteristics of the Osmium Metal Market Overall, as a rare category among platinum group metals, osmium had highly distinctive core characteristics: extreme scarcity on the resource side, highly monopolized supply with insufficient elasticity; application-side concentration in high-precision, cutting-edge fields, with rigid and irreplaceable demand; and unique physicochemical properties, combining both advantages and application barriers. Unlike the market-driven fluctuation logic of conventional bulk commodities, the osmium market was significantly affected by factors such as supply-side changes, downstream demand from high-end industries, and compliance costs. The overall market size was small, and trading frequency was relatively low, placing it in the category of niche rare precious metals. Its core value always revolved around the two key points of “scarcity” and “irreplaceability,” making it an indispensable key metal material in high-end industrial and scientific research fields.

SMM Morning Meeting Summary: Last Friday evening, LME copper opened at $13,474.5/mt, initially fluctuating rangebound and reaching $13,527/mt. Later, the center of copper prices gradually shifted downward, touching $13,290/mt near the end of the session, and finally closed at $13,296/mt, with a gain of 0.28%. Trading volume reached 25,300 lots, and open interest stood at 315,000 lots, down by 497 lots from the previous trading day, mainly due to bears reducing their positions. The most-traded SHFE copper 2604 contract opened at 104,230 yuan/mt, quickly rising to 104,520 yuan/mt, then fluctuated downward, bottoming out at 103,100 yuan/mt, and finally closed at 103,280 yuan/mt, with a gain of 0.45%. Trading volume reached 77,700 lots, and open interest stood at 202,000 lots, down by 2,150 lots from the previous trading day, also characterized by bears reducing their positions.

[SMM Analysis: The "Key Anchor Point" in Great Power Rivalry: The US "Treasury Plan" and the Resource Reshuffle in Latin America] As the second phase of the Mirador copper mine project in Ecuador, developed by a Chinese enterprise, remains stuck in a "built but awaiting approval" deadlock, ten thousand kilometers away in Washington, the US Export-Import Bank, together with the President, is announcing a historic supply chain security initiative called the "Treasury Plan." In the pause and the start, a global covert battle over critical minerals such as copper, lithium, cobalt, and gallium is moving from behind the scenes to the forefront.