According to SMM data, the composite operating rate of copper bar enterprises in February was 22.78%, down 22.08 percentage points MoM and down 17.64 percentage points YoY.

Currently, brass prices are rising, mainly influenced by the supply deficit in the market and the inversion caused by high overseas quotations. Domestic inventory remains low, production constraints, and reduced imports have exacerbated supply tightness, while the increase in international copper prices has further driven up costs. Due to high prices, downstream enterprises show low purchase willingness, with US-origin goods being almost entirely overlooked due to their high cost. In the short term, brass prices may remain high, but in the medium and long-term, there is still resistance for a price correction.

Currently, brass prices are rising, mainly influenced by the supply deficit in the market and the inversion caused by high overseas quotations. Domestic inventory remains low, production constraints, and reduced imports have exacerbated supply tightness, while the increase in international copper prices has further driven up costs. Due to the high prices, downstream enterprises show low purchase willingness, with US-origin goods being almost entirely neglected due to their high costs. In the short term, brass prices may remain high, but in the medium and long-term, there is still resistance for a potential correction.

[SMM Monthly Outlook: Copper Prices Post Two Consecutive Monthly Gains; Will the "Trump Recession Trade" Weigh on Copper Prices?] Despite frequent "shifts" in external macro conditions, domestic policy support expectations, combined with tight copper concentrate supply and the imported copper concentrate index (monthly) dropping into negative territory, drove copper prices to continue their monthly gains in February. LME copper closed February with a 2.88% increase, while SHFE copper ended the month with a 1.71% gain. Since the beginning of March, the macro sentiment from the Two Sessions has been relatively positive; the market is gradually entering the traditional peak consumption season, and the domestic inventory turning point has arrived, further supporting the rise in copper prices.

【Copper Billet Market Faces "Post-Chinese New Year Syndrome" in February, May "Fully Recover" in March】 According to SMM, the operating rate of copper billet producers in February 2025 was 40.42%, down 1.27% MoM. By scale, the operating rate of large enterprises was 41.42%, medium-sized enterprises 40.36%, and small enterprises 34.36%. Although post-holiday restocking demand from downstream sectors was released, with robust performance in refrigeration, sanitary ware, and electromagnetic wire industries, overall operating rates did not rebound significantly.

Driven by policies, today's market experienced significant fluctuations, with overall market quotations showing a chaotic state. Taking secondary brass as an example, its price difference even exceeded 1,000 yuan/mt.