[SMM Aluminum Express News] Guinea, the world’s largest bauxite producer, is in discussions with miners to introduce controls on the volume of bauxite ore supplied to the market in order to protect prices. Mines and Geology Minister Bouna Sylla said the government is considering measures to regulate bauxite production and prevent a sharp price slump, which would hurt company revenues and government tax income. If implemented, Guinea would join the Democratic Republic of Congo and Zimbabwe in restricting exports of key minerals, most of which are currently destined for China.

Rusal's financial report showed that, affected by its capacity optimization plan, full-year 2025 primary aluminum production fell 1.9% YoY to 3.918 million mt (2024: 3.992 million mt). Alumina production, meanwhile, rose 6.7% YoY to 6.858 million mt. In addition, benefiting from the Guinea expansion project and increased equity interests in refineries in China and India, bauxite production increased 16.2% YoY to 18.453 million mt.

28th of Feburary: According to SMM statistics, in February 2026, overseas production of metallurgical-grade alumina decreased by 12.41% month-on-month and 3.66% year-on-year; the average operating rate of overseas alumina enterprises edged down by 0.01 percentage point month-on-month to 76.17%, a decrease of 2.67 percentage points year-on-year. Overall, overseas alumina production was relatively stable during the month. By region: Asia: On February 6, Lam Dong Province in Vietnam approved the expansion plans for two alumina projects under Vinacomin, with a total investment of VND 59.855 trillion (approximately USD 2.3 billion). One is to add a production line with an annual capacity of 1.2 million tons at the Nhan Co alumina plant in Dak Nong Province, which is expected to be commissioned in 2030 with an operating period of 30 years. The other is to expand the Tan Rai alumina plant in Lam Dong Province, planning to build a second production line with an annual capacity of 1.2 million tons. Construction is expected to be completed in the third quarter of 2030 and operation to begin in the fourth quarter. According to SMM research, Vietnam's local bauxite resources are relatively abundant, providing stable raw material support for the commissioning of these projects. It is expected that they will have significant cost advantages, potentially enhancing the export competitiveness of alumina in the long term. Europe: In order to reduce the negative environmental impact of road transportation, Alteo alumina plant has partnered with HES Fos, planning to relocate most of its logistics operations from the port of Marseille to the port of Fos-sur-Mer. Under the agreement, HES Fos will be responsible for unloading ships, storing hydrated alumina, and subsequently transporting it to Alteo's plant in Gardanne. In the future, HES Fos will renovate an existing clinker warehouse specifically for storing hydrated alumina to ensure the smooth operation of the supply chain. The construction of this dedicated facility has entered the execution phase and is expected to be put into operation in 2029, providing reliable support for the logistics and storage of alumina in the long term. Australia: On February 13, Australian company Alpha HPA announced the groundbreaking of the second phase of its planned world's largest single-site high-purity alumina refinery. The project will utilize the company's proprietary solvent extraction and refining technology to commercially produce high-purity alumina products with a purity of 99.99%, providing key raw materials for industries such as global lithium batteries, LED lights, and semiconductor manufacturing. Middle East: On February 28, the conflict between Iran and Israel escalated, with an attack on Tehran, the capital of Iran. Currently, no shutdowns of alumina plants in the region have been reported. According to SMM statistics, Iran has only one alumina plant, which is equipped with bauxite production capacity. If geopolitical conflicts further intensify, the plant's production could be affected, and the possibility of output cuts or shutdowns cannot be ruled out. Data show that Iran's annual alumina output is about 250,000 tons, and bauxite output is about 650,000 tons. Its alumina production cannot meet the domestic demand for electrolytic aluminum production, and it has long relied on imports, with India being the main source. Alumina imports from India account for 40% to 80% of Iran's total imports. Outlook for March 2026: Overseas production of metallurgical-grade alumina is expected to increase by 12.65% month-on-month and decrease slightly by 2.38% year-on-year; the operating rate is expected to be 77.45%, up 0.01 percentage point month-on-month and down 1.61 percentage points year-on-year. Continuous attention should be paid to the impact of changes in the international political situation on alumina production.

SMM Alumina Morning Comment Feb. 3 Futures: In the night session, the most-traded alumina 2605 futures contract opened at 2,796 yuan/mt, hit a high of 2,843 yuan/mt, touched a low of 2,783 yuan/mt, and finally closed at 2,821 yuan/mt, up 49 yuan/mt from the previous day. Open interest increased by 270 lots to 376,000 lots, as overall market trading remained cautious, while maintenance and production halts at alumina refineries provided some support to the bulls. Technically, the closing price was above the MA5 (2,797.60), MA10 (2,756.70), and MA30 (2,762.23), lending some upward momentum. Meanwhile, the MACD indicator's DIF (3.87) crossed above the DEA (-3.49), forming a golden cross at low levels, with the histogram at 14.73, suggesting that alumina futures are expected to continue trading in the doldrums in the near term. Ore Side: As of February 2, 2026, the SMM imported bauxite index stood at $62.42/mt, down $1.96/mt from the previous day, mainly due to lower intended transaction prices between buyers and sellers and a decline in caustic soda prices compared to earlier periods. The SMM Guinea FOB average was reported at $39/mt, unchanged from the previous day. The SMM Guinea bauxite CIF average was $61/mt, flat from the previous day. The SMM Australia low-temperature bauxite CIF average was $60/mt, down $2.5/mt from the previous day. The SMM Australia high-temperature bauxite CIF average was $56/mt, down $1.5/mt from the previous day. The Malaysia bauxite CIF average was $47/mt, unchanged from the previous day, while the Malaysia bauxite CIF (washed) average was $60/mt, down $1/mt from the previous day. The Ghana bauxite CIF price was $73/mt, down $0.5/mt from the previous day. The bauxite CFR (Turkey) price was $71.5/mt, down $2/mt from last Friday. On the domestic ore side, bauxite production resumptions in Shanxi were active, with current supply relatively ample, putting prices under pressure. For imported ore, recent intended transaction prices between buyers and sellers declined compared to earlier periods, and current market transactions were sluggish. Some alumina refineries reported cautious procurement plans amid the downtrend in ore prices. SMM will continue to monitor production at domestic and overseas mines, port shipments, and price trends. Spot Prices: As of February 2, 2025, the SMM alumina index was 2,620.68 yuan/mt, down 2.03 yuan/mt WoW. The SMM Shandong alumina index was 2,550.3 yuan/mt, down 0.41 yuan/mt WoW. The SMM Henan alumina index was 2,619.62 yuan/mt, down 1.17 yuan/mt WoW. The SMM Shanxi alumina index was 2,605.13 yuan/mt, down 1.61 yuan/mt WoW. The SMM Guizhou alumina index was 2,694.27 yuan/mt, down 3.79 yuan/mt WoW. The SMM Guangxi alumina index was 2,675.4 yuan/mt, down 5.19 yuan/mt WoW. Spot-Futures Price Spread Daily Report: According to SMM data, on February 2, the SMM alumina index was at a discount of 143.32 yuan/mt against the latest transaction price of the most-traded contract at 11:30. Warehouse Warrant Daily Report: On February 2, the total registered volume of alumina warehouse warrants increased by 11,100 mt from the previous trading day to 182,200 mt. The total registered volume in Shandong remained unchanged from the previous day at 7,796 mt, in Henan remained unchanged at 0 mt, in Guangxi remained unchanged at 7,505 mt, in Gansu increased by 903 mt to 17,400 mt, and in Xinjiang increased by 10,200 mt to 149,500 mt. Overseas Market: As of February 2, 2026, the FOB alumina price in Western Australia was $308/mt, the ocean freight rate was $20.2/mt, and the USD/CNY selling rate was around 6.97. This price translates to a selling price of approximately 2,665.08 yuan/mt at mainstream domestic ports, slightly higher than the SMM alumina index price by 44.4 yuan/mt. According to SMM model calculations, the import arbitrage window is closed. Summary: Overall, as of last Thursday, domestic alumina market inventory saw a slight rebound, with the overall oversupply situation continuing. Currently, some alumina refineries have commenced maintenance, with enterprises across various regions scheduling shutdowns of different scales, leading to a decline in the industry's operating rate and a weekly production decrease of 35,000 mt to 1.636 million mt. Inventory side, due to the increase in enterprises undergoing maintenance, in-factory alumina inventory decreased by 3,000 mt to 1.2408 million mt. Aluminum enterprise raw material inventory saw a slight increase to 3.603 million mt, mainly due to continuous deliveries under long-term agreements. Futures inventory, attracted by the previous strength in futures prices, saw increased delivery willingness, rising by 40,000 mt to 159,100 mt; while in-transit and station inventory decreased by 30,000 mt as cargoes gradually arrived at end-users. Overall, although the current inventory buildup pace has slowed compared to the previous period, overall industry inventory pressure persists, and the destocking process has fallen short of expectations. Subsequent attention should be paid to the implementation of enterprise maintenance. If the supply side fails to continue contracting, inventory is expected to maintain a slight accumulation trend next week, and spot alumina prices are likely to remain in the doldrums. [Except for publicly available information, other data are derived by SMM through processing based on public information, market communication, and SMM's internal database model, for reference only and do not constitute decision-making advice.]

Metro Mining is planning to increase production at its Bauxite Hills bauxite mining project in Queensland, raising its 2026 bauxite shipments to 6.5 million tonnes. Metro Mining reportedly shipped a record 2.3 million wet metric tons in the third quarter of this year, and its year-to-date shipments have reached 4.1 million wet metric tons, primarily driven by a 6% increase in bauxite production in August, with shipments reaching 753,101 wet metric tons that month.

[SMM Aluminum Express News] PT Aneka Tambang Tbk (ANTM) bauxite & alumina segment revenue grew 68% YoY to IDR 1.95 trillion. Bauxite production surged 263% to 2.31 million wmt, with sales skyrocketing 1,033% to 1.10 million wmt. Through subsidiary Indonesia Chemical Alumina (ICA), alumina production increased 27% to 134,224 tons, with sales of 134,768 tons (+1%). This growth underscores the segment's significant expansion, contributing to the company's strengthened fundamentals alongside cost optimization and a focus on the domestic market.