The Indonesian aluminum market remained stable during the 2026 Chinese New Year, with production unaffected and bauxite prices holding at USD 28–32 FOB amid RKAB uncertainty. Alumina prices also stayed steady at USD 308 FOB due to feedstock stability and a seasonal lull in Chinese buying activity.

SMM June 15 News: In May, due to relatively concentrated maintenance and production cuts at alumina enterprises, alumina supply tightened, and prices showed an upward trend. The theoretical profitability of alumina expanded. As of the end of May, according to SMM's daily cost-profit model, the theoretical profitability of alumina expanded to 409 yuan/mt. Entering June, bauxite prices fluctuated, and the overall cost of alumina did not see significant changes. However, due to some recovery in profitability, some of the alumina capacity that had undergone maintenance and production cuts earlier resumed operations. Coupled with the ramp-up of newly commissioned capacity, the operating capacity of alumina rebounded. As of Thursday this week, the weekly operating capacity of alumina rose to 89.01 million mt/year, and alumina supply increased. Under these circumstances, the spot alumina prices came under pressure and pulled back. As of Friday this week, the SMM Alumina Index stood at 3,250.93 yuan/mt, a pullback of 24.6 yuan/mt from the end of May. As of now, the theoretical profitability of alumina still stands at 375 yuan/mt. The operating capacity of alumina is expected to remain at a high level in the short term, and the alumina market is expected to show a slight surplus in June. As the spot supply of alumina rebounds and spot prices decline, the theoretical profitability of alumina is expected to narrow subsequently. Some high-cost enterprises are expected to face increased cost pressure, and there is a possibility that high-cost capacity may once again undergo maintenance and production cuts. Going forward, it is necessary to continuously monitor the production dynamics of alumina enterprises as well as the cost and profitability of alumina.

Details of the hot topics in the aluminum market this week (June 9-12, 2025) are as follows......

》Check SMM aluminum product quotes, data, and market analysis 》Subscribe to view SMM's historical spot metal prices SMM News on June 12: Domestic Bauxite Market: This week, the domestic bauxite market remained calm, with stable operations prevailing. As of today, in Shanxi, the transaction price for bauxite with an Al/Si ratio of 5.0 and 60% alumina content, excluding VAT, for self pick-up at the crushing plant, was approximately 580-620 yuan/mt. In Henan, the transaction price for bauxite with an Al/Si ratio of 5.0 and 60% alumina content, excluding VAT, for self pick-up at the crushing plant, was around 550-590 yuan/mt. In Guizhou, the transaction price for bauxite with an Al/Si ratio of 5.5 and 58% alumina content, excluding VAT, for self pick-up at the crushing plant, was 410-450 yuan/mt. In Guangxi, the transaction price for bauxite with an Al/Si ratio of 6.0 and 53% alumina content, excluding VAT, for self pick-up at the crushing plant, was 320-335 yuan/mt. Imported Bauxite Market: According to data from June 6, the total weekly bauxite arrivals at domestic ports were 4.8204 million mt, a decrease of 40,000 mt from the previous week. The total weekly bauxite departures from main ports in Guinea were 3.5693 million mt, an increase of 395,500 mt from the previous week. The total weekly bauxite departures from main ports in Australia were 889,700 mt, a decrease of 249,500 mt from the previous week. In terms of prices, spot transactions of imported bauxite bulk cargo remained sluggish this week. Only one low-grade Guinea bauxite transaction was inquired, with a price below $75/mt for a grade of 45% alumina content and 3% silica content, driving down the SMM CIF index for imported bauxite and the average CIF price for Guinea bauxite. As of Thursday this week, the CIF price for Guinea bauxite was reported at $74.5/mt, a decrease of $0.5/mt from last Thursday. The SMM CIF index for imported bauxite was reported at $74.35/mt, a decrease of $0.59/mt from last Thursday. SMM Commentary: In the short term, both bullish and bearish factors coexist in the bauxite price market, with buyers and sellers engaging in a tug-of-war. On one hand, in the short term, the supply of imported bauxite is expected to remain high, with the fundamental market showing a surplus and inventory buildup in bauxite. Additionally, spot alumina prices have shown a certain downward trend, and alumina profit margins are expected to narrow, limiting the acceptance of high-priced bauxite. On the other hand, the rainy season in Guinea is approaching, and the previous mining rights issues have not yet been resolved, with subsequent bauxite shipments expected to decline. Sellers are reluctant to budge on prices. In the short term, bauxite prices are expected to fluctuate mainly. 》Click to view SMM's aluminum industry chain database

SMM June 11 News: In the past two weeks, the impact of the Guinea mining rights incident on market sentiment for alumina and bauxite has gradually subsided, and transactions in the bauxite bulk cargo market have been relatively sluggish. Bauxite prices are currently in a tug-of-war between sellers and buyers, with both bearish and bullish factors coexisting, and price trends await guidance. Bauxite sellers intend to refuse to budge on prices Recently, bauxite sellers have maintained their offers above $75/mt. Considering the upcoming rainy season in Guinea and the unresolved mining rights incident, bauxite shipments are expected to decrease, and sellers have a certain intention to refuse to budge on prices. According to data from June 6, the total weekly bauxite port departures from Guinea's main ports were 3.5693 million mt, an increase of 395,500 mt from the previous week. From the perspective of weekly average port departures, the average weekly port departures from Guinea's mainstream ports were 3.86 million mt in April and 3.6 million mt in May (5 weeks). Recently, Guinea's weekly bauxite port departures have decreased from the high levels seen in March-April. As the impact of the rainy season gradually manifests, weekly port departures are expected to decline further, and the monthly balance of bauxite may shift to a deficit state. Buyers have limited acceptance of high-priced bauxite On the one hand, the bauxite market has recently shown a continuous surplus. Supply side, bauxite port arrivals have remained at high levels recently, with an average of 4.48 million mt per week in April (5 weeks) and 4.45 million mt per week in May. In the first week of June, port arrivals reached 4.82 million mt. Demand side, from April to May, affected by maintenance and production cuts at domestic alumina refineries, alumina production declined, reducing the demand for bauxite. Bauxite has remained in a continuous surplus. As of last Friday, SMM statistics showed that the combined inventory at nine ports was 21.2 million mt, an inventory buildup of 5.14 million mt from the end of March. Based on a simple calculation of last week's alumina operating capacity and bauxite supply, the weekly demand for bauxite is estimated to be around 4.5 million mt, while the combined supply of imported bauxite arrivals and domestic ore production is expected to be close to 6 million mt, resulting in a weekly bauxite surplus of over 1 million mt. On the other hand, the profitability of alumina is not optimistic. Starting from the end of May, the SMM alumina index has stopped rising and pulled back. Some high-cost alumina capacities in Shanxi, Henan, and Guangxi are expected to remain in a loss-making state. Alumina refineries have not yet achieved 100% profitability and are once again facing pressure from narrowing profits and increasing losses. It is expected that alumina refineries will be unable to accept high-priced bauxite in the short term. SMM Commentary: Since mid-May, bauxite transaction prices have shown mixed performance. During the game phase, the SMM imported bauxite index price is expected to fluctuate.

Details of the hot topics in the aluminum market this week (June 03-05, 2025) are as follows......