[SMM Aluminum Express News] Metro Mining expects bauxite production to reach 6.6–7.1 million WMT in 2026, with plans to further expand capacity to 8 million WMT per year. The company targets 5 million WMT of production in the second half of 2026, supported by low strip ratios, short average haul distances of 9 km to port, and 2H delivered costs of around US$30/dmt. The Bauxite Hills operation continues to benefit from favorable operating conditions, including 0.5 m average overburden with no blasting, feed grades of 48–50% alumina, product grades of 51–53% alumina, yields of 60–80%, and moisture below 10% for more than seven months annually. Metro Mining has also locked in 80% of its freight requirements for 2026–27, hedged US$75 million at an AUD/USD exchange rate of 0.65, and reported normal diesel inventory levels.

[SMM Aluminum Express News] Odisha Mining Corporation plans to expand bauxite production at its Kodingamali mines in Odisha from 3.6 Mtpa to 6 Mtpa, reflecting strong long-term demand from the alumina and aluminium sector.

[SMM Aluminum Express News] Mineração Rio do Norte has secured an installation license for its Novas Minas project in Pará, enabling a major life-of-mine extension through 2041. The company plans to invest around USD 1.8 billion from 2027–2041 to sustain ~12.5 Mtpa of bauxite output, supporting continued operations at its Porto Trombetas site—one of Brazil’s key long-standing bauxite hubs with 18 Mtpa installed capacity.

[SMM Aluminum Express News] Metro Mining mined 563,000 WMT of bauxite in April 2026 at its Bauxite Hills Mine in North Queensland, up 33% year-on-year despite disruptions from Tropical Cyclone Narelle. The company shipped 416,000 WMT during the month, down 2% year-on-year, while building stockpiles ahead of increased throughput from the return of the Ikamba offshore floating terminal.

SMM News, April 22: According to the General Administration of Customs, domestic bauxite imports reached 21.78 million tons in March 2026, rising 28.5% month-on-month and 32.3% year-on-year, hitting a record high for single-month imports. From January to March 2026, cumulative domestic bauxite imports stood at 57.98 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 23.1%.In March 2026, domestic imports of Guinean bauxite amounted to 18.12 million tons, up 29.6% month-on-month and 39.4% year-on-year. During the first three months of 2026, cumulative imports of Guinean bauxite reached 46.541 million tons, climbing 27.9% year-on-year. (HS Code: 26060000) In the first quarter of 2026, Guinean bauxite accounted for over 80% of total domestic bauxite imports. Driven by the commissioning of new bauxite projects, the resumption of suspended operations and capacity expansion at existing mines, Guinea’s monthly bauxite exports have climbed continuously, leading to a rising concentration of domestic bauxite import sources. Nevertheless, such concentration is unlikely to rise further in the following period, mainly for the reasons below: Domestic alumina demand sees limited growth, and the local market has shifted to a net alumina import pattern. Bauxite demand is expected to decline rather than expand. With steady domestic bauxite output, overall demand for imported bauxite will weaken. Guinea plans to introduce relevant policies to curb bauxite export volumes and extend its local aluminum industrial chain, which will cap unlimited growth in the nation’s bauxite exports. In February, market rumors spread that Guinea would formulate policies to restrict bauxite exports. Affected by the news, imported bauxite prices halted declines and rebounded. Meanwhile, surging ocean freight rates amid geopolitical tensions in the Middle East pushed up bauxite CIF prices. By mid-April, the SMM imported bauxite CIF index rebounded to a peak of USD 68.99 per ton, rising by USD 7.66 per ton from the February low. Latest market information indicates that detailed policy updates will be released from late April to early May, later than the previously expected early April timeline, cooling bullish market sentiment. In mid-to-late April, bauxite freight rates edged lower. Coupled with high port inventories and sufficient circulating cargo supply, buyers lowered their offered prices, and market acceptance of high-priced cargo weakened alongside growing wait-and-see sentiment, resulting in a slight downward shift in spot bauxite prices. Judging from bauxite shipment volumes at major Guinean ports, shipment levels in February and March were higher than those recorded in January and February. Based on shipping schedules, average daily arrivals of Guinean bauxite are expected to increase month-on-month in April. In addition, Guinean bauxite shipments have remained stable since March, while Australian bauxite exports have not posted notable declines. From May to mid-June, overall domestic bauxite arrivals will stay at a high level, with imported volumes remaining elevated in the short term. Ample domestic bauxite supply will cap upward price momentum and put pressure on price highs.

SMM News, April 27: On April 24, 2026, market rumors emerged that Guinea would cap its bauxite export volume at 150 million tons, with the relevant policy to be officially released on April 25. The news drove a sharp rise in alumina during the overnight session that day. The main alumina contract 2609 hit a high of 2,899 yuan per ton and closed at 2,894 yuan per ton, up 2.76% from the previous settlement price. As of April 25, 2026, no updated official policy documents had been released on relevant government websites in Guinea. Per market rumors, Guinea’s bauxite exports will be restricted to 150 million tons. Should the final policy be implemented as rumored, based on Guinea’s general bauxite trade flow ratios and historical shipment volumes, SMM estimates that domestic bauxite imports from Guinea will drop to approximately 132 million tons in 2026. Customs data for 2025 showed domestic imports of Guinea bauxite stood at around 149 million tons, Australian bauxite imports at roughly 37.42 million tons, and non-mainstream source bauxite imports at about 14.26 million tons. If Guinea bauxite imports fall to 132 million tons in 2026, Australian bauxite imports remain largely stable, and non-mainstream bauxite imports edge down to around 12.5 million tons, the total domestic bauxite import volume is projected to decline to roughly 182 million tons. SMM forecasts domestic bauxite output to reach 79 million tons in 2026 (including volumes supplied for non-metallurgical alumina production), putting the total domestic bauxite supply at approximately 261 million tons for the year. SMM estimates domestic metallurgical alumina output at 87.22 million tons in 2026, sufficient to support a annually aluminum production capacity of 45.3 million tons. The alumina market will shift to a net import status. Factoring in bauxite demand for non-metallurgical alumina segments, overall bauxite total demand is expected to hit around 262 million tons. On the whole, the bauxite market fundamentals are set to shift into a tight balance in 2026. Amid raw material inventory buildup demand from newly commissioned alumina capacity, the bauxite market is theoretically poised to face mild tight supply conditions. However, actual market performance is expected to be looser than modelled calculations, for the following key reasons: Electrolytic aluminum production cuts in the Middle East have exacerbated overseas alumina surplus, while global bauxite supply contraction has lifted price expectations. Rising domestic bauxite prices will push up local alumina production costs, further enhancing the cost competitiveness of overseas alumina. Higher alumina imports will replace part of bauxite imports, easing domestic bauxite supply tightness. Elevated inventory levels will ease market tightness. In 2025, high price incentives drove a substantial increase in bauxite supply, resulting in a notable supply surplus and sharp inventory accumulation.Data from SMM showed domestic port bauxite inventories stood at 21.32 million tons and bonded ore inventories at alumina refineries at about 57.06 million tons by early 2026, with combined inventories reaching 78.38 million tons. Ample inventory buffers will keep actual market conditions looser than theoretical projections. In summary, if Guinea finalizes its policy to cap total bauxite exports at 150 million tons with no major fluctuations in ocean freight rates, bauxite prices are expected to trend a little bit higher. Nevertheless, substantial overseas alumina surplus and increased substitutable alumina imports will cap upside potential for bauxite prices. Barring unforeseen black swan events, neither bauxite nor alumina prices are likely to replicate the strong rally seen from late 2024 to early 2025. In the short term, both buyers and sellers in the bauxite market are adopting a wait-and-see stance, pending official updates on Guinea’s new policy. Market sentiment remains cautious, and prices are projected to move in a volatile range ahead of clear policy guidance.