According to data from the General Administration of Customs, China imported 17.51 million mt of bauxite in May 2025, down 15.3% MoM and up 29.4% YoY. From January to May, cumulative imports reached 85.18 million mt, up 33.1% YoY.

On June 3 local time, the White House issued a statement announcing that US President Trump would raise tariffs on imported steel, aluminum, and their derivative products from 25% to 50%, effective at 00:01 Eastern Time on June 4, 2025.

Details of the hot topics in the aluminum market in May are as follows......

Data from the online inquiry platform for customs statistics showed that China's bauxite (aluminum ores and concentrates) imports reached 20,684,045.155 mt in April 2025, up 25.67% MoM and 45.44% YoY. Guinea was the largest supplier, with 16,732,488.511 mt of bauxite (aluminum ores and concentrates) imported from the country that month, up 28.77% MoM and 59.62% YoY. Australia ranked as the second-largest supplier, with 2,679,996.025 mt of bauxite (aluminum ores and concentrates) imported from the country that month, up 5.70% MoM but down 14.41% YoY. Below is a breakdown of bauxite imports in April 2025 compiled based on data from the General Administration of Customs of China's official website: Note: The total import/export volume also includes data from origins not listed in the table above.

SMM Alumina Morning Comment on May 21 Futures Market: Overnight, the most-traded alumina 2509 futures contract opened at 3,130 yuan/mt, with a high of 3,130 yuan/mt, a low of 3,079 yuan/mt, and closed at 3,111 yuan/mt, down 20 yuan/mt or 0.65%, with open interest at 351,000 lots. Alumina Spot: On Tuesday, inquiries revealed that 2,000 mt of alumina was traded in Guizhou at a transaction price of 3,150 yuan/mt, and 10,000 mt of alumina was traded in Shanxi at a transaction price of 3,200 yuan/mt. Ore: As of May 20, the SMM imported bauxite index was reported at $71.09/mt, up $0.36/mt from the previous trading day. This was mainly due to supply disruptions in Guinea's bauxite, leading to a significant increase in some market offers compared to the previous period, driving a rebound in the SMM imported bauxite index. The SMM Guinea bauxite CIF average price was reported at $70/mt, unchanged from the previous trading day. The SMM Australian low-temperature bauxite CIF average price was reported at $70/mt, unchanged from the previous trading day. The SMM Australian high-temperature bauxite CIF average price was reported at $65/mt, unchanged from the previous trading day. Industry Dynamics: Bauxite Imports: According to the General Administration of Customs of China, in April 2025, China imported 20.684 million mt of bauxite, up 25.62% MoM and 45.44% YoY. By country, imports from Guinea were 16.732 million mt, up 28.72% MoM and 59.62% YoY; imports from Australia were 2.68 million mt, up 5.7% MoM and down 14.41% YoY; and total imports of non-mainstream bauxite were 1.272 million mt. From January to April 2025, China imported a cumulative 67.77 million mt of bauxite, up 34.3% YoY. By country, cumulative imports from Guinea were 53.12 million mt, accounting for 78.38% of total imports, up 42.2% YoY; cumulative imports from Australia were 10.5 million mt, accounting for 15.49% of total imports, down 5.4% YoY; and cumulative imports of non-mainstream bauxite were 4.15 million mt, accounting for 6.12% of total imports, up 109% compared to the same period in 2024. Alumina Imports and Exports: According to Chinese customs data, in April 2025, China exported 262,900 mt of alumina, up 101.6% YoY; imported 10,700 mt of alumina, down 90.1% YoY; and had a net import of -252,200 mt of alumina in April. From January to April 2025, China imported a cumulative 99,500 mt of alumina, down 90.6% YoY; exported a cumulative 964,500 mt of alumina, up 74.7% YoY; and had a cumulative net import of -865,000 mt of alumina. Primary Aluminum Imports and Exports: According to customs data, in April 2025, domestic primary aluminum imports were approximately 250,500 mt, up 12.8% MoM and 14.6% YoY. From January to April, the total cumulative imports of primary aluminum in China reached approximately 634,300 mt, down 11.2% YoY. In April 2025, China's primary aluminum exports amounted to around 13,700 mt, up 54.6% MoM and 643.0% YoY. From January to April, the total cumulative exports of primary aluminum were approximately 34,500 mt, showing a year-on-year increase of about 139.6%. In April 2025, China's net imports of primary aluminum were 236,800 mt, up 11.1% MoM and 14.8% YoY. From January to April, the cumulative net imports of primary aluminum in China were approximately 799,800 mt, down 13.6% YoY. Daily Basis Report: According to SMM data, on May 20, the SMM alumina index was at a discount of 103.31 yuan/mt against the latest transaction price of the most-traded contract at 11:30 a.m. Warrant Daily Report: On May 20, the total registered volume of alumina warrants decreased by 5,409 mt from the previous trading day to 190,300 mt. In Shandong, the total registered volume of alumina warrants remained unchanged from the previous trading day at 601 mt. In Henan, it also remained unchanged at 3,001 mt. In Guangxi, the total registered volume of alumina warrants decreased by 2,402 mt from the previous trading day to 10,200 mt. In Gansu, it remained unchanged at 6,306 mt. In Xinjiang, the total registered volume of alumina warrants decreased by 3,007 mt from the previous trading day to 170,200 mt. Overseas Market: As of May 20, 2025, the FOB Western Australia alumina price was $370/mt, with an ocean freight rate of $21.50/mt. The selling price of the USD/CNY exchange rate was around 7.24. This price translates to approximately 3,283 yuan/mt for the external selling price at major domestic ports, which is 248 yuan/mt higher than the domestic alumina price. The alumina import window remained closed. Summary: Last week, maintenance and production cuts were concentrated among alumina enterprises in south China, with operating capacity decreasing by 2.9 million mt/year on a MoM basis, further tightening spot cargo availability. Additionally, alumina enterprises have been facing continuous losses in recent months, with strong intentions to refuse to budge on prices. Coupled with maintenance and production cuts, the tightening of spot cargo availability led to a significant rebound in spot prices. Last Friday, due to the revocation of mining rights for some enterprises in Guinea, some currently operating enterprises received notices of production suspension. This week, some miners declared force majeure to shipping companies. The specific impact of this incident on Guinea's bauxite supply remains to be assessed. In the short term, it may provide sentiment-based support for bauxite prices, thereby offering cost support for alumina. Subsequent attention should be paid to changes in the operating capacity of alumina refineries, as well as the shipment volume of Guinea's bauxite from the raw material side and the dynamics of related enterprises. [The information provided is for reference only. This article does not constitute direct advice for investment research decisions. Clients should make cautious decisions and should not rely on this as a substitute for independent judgment. Any decisions made by clients are unrelated to SMM.]

SMM May 20 News: According to the General Administration of Customs of China, China imported 20.684 million mt of bauxite in April 2025, up 25.62% MoM and 45.44% YoY, hitting a record high. From January to April 2025, China's cumulative bauxite imports reached 67.77 million mt, up 34.3% YoY. Regarding mainstream import sources of bauxite: In April, China imported 16.732 million mt of bauxite from Guinea, up 28.72% MoM and 59.62% YoY, setting a new monthly import record. Although the average weekly shipment volume in March decreased compared to February, it surged MoM in April. The shipment volume of bauxite from Guinea in April is expected to exceed 17.5 million mt. The total volume of bauxite imported from Guinea by China in May and June is expected to continue to see a significant YoY increase. In April, China imported 2.68 million mt of bauxite from Australia, up 5.7% MoM mainly due to the waning impact of the rainy season, but down 14.41% YoY. From April to mid-May, bauxite prices showed a downward trend, with few spot transactions of Australian bauxite bulk cargoes, mostly executed under long-term contracts. It is reported that some Australian bauxite has been diverted to countries other than China, and Australia's bauxite imports may see a YoY decline. Regarding non-mainstream import sources of bauxite: In April 2025, China imported bauxite from 14 countries, including Turkey, Ghana, Laos, Malaysia, Sierra Leone, and Jamaica, with a cumulative total of 1.272 million mt, up 109.1% YoY, accounting for 6.15% of the total imports. SMM Commentary: In May, maintenance and production cuts in the alumina sector intensified in south China. However, as the alumina industry's profits turned from losses to gains, production resumptions in the alumina sector are expected, with the total operating capacity expected to remain flat or rebound slightly compared to April, and bauxite demand is expected to recover somewhat. However, as the supply of imported bauxite is expected to remain high, bauxite is expected to maintain a surplus situation. In the short term, due to the high shipment volume of bauxite from Guinea in the early period and the influence of shipping schedules, the supply of imported bauxite in China is expected to remain high in the next two months. However, as supply disruptions of bauxite from Guinea have occurred, market sentiment has turned cautious, with some bauxite suppliers intending to refuse to budge on prices, and low-price offers disappearing from the market. The subsequent price trend of bauxite needs continuous monitoring of the development of supply disruptions of bauxite from Guinea, changes in the shipment volume of bauxite from Guinea, and the supply situation of bauxite from other sources.