[SMM Cobalt-Lithium Morning Briefing: This week, prices in the new energy industry chain continued to diverge. The lithium industry chain was generally weak. The transaction center of lithium ore shifted lower alongside lithium chemical prices, and lithium carbonate fell to around 150,000 yuan/mt. Downstream firms bought the dip at low price levels, but upstream producers held prices firm and held back from selling, intensifying the market tug-of-war. Lithium hydroxide transaction prices declined in tandem, and overall trading remained sluggish. In the cobalt industry chain, demand was weak. Refined cobalt, cobalt sulphate, and cobalt chloride all lacked effective transaction support, while prices of intermediate products and Co3O4 temporarily held steady. Nickel sulphate inventory continued to decline, but downstream stockpiling willingness was insufficient, and prices still faced pressure.]

In the second half of last year, ahead of the halving of the NEV purchase tax rebate, ternary cathode orders climbed steadily, hitting record highs month after month. At that time, the market generally expected ternary demand growth for 2026 to be within 10%. But the actual results for the first half of this year came in much stronger. According to SMM, domestic ternary cathode production reached 493,000 metric tons in H1 2026, up 40% YoY, while global ternary cathode output reached 611,500 metric tons, up 24% . Meanwhile, CAAM data shows that NEV sales in China (including exports) reached 7.445 million units in H1 2026, up only 7% YoY, with domestic sales actually contracting by 13%. Given such modest growth in vehicle sales, where did the strong performance of ternary cathode come from? The answer lies in two key factors: a rising share of premium vehicle models and a rapid increase in battery capacity per vehicle . The halving of the purchase tax rebate has had a greater impact on low-priced vehicles. For A00-class models priced under RMB 50,000, the exemption was a major selling point—now, buyers face an additional tax payment of several thousand yuan, significantly eroding their cost advantage. In contrast, for mid-to-high-end models priced between RMB 200,000 and 300,000, the RMB 15,000 rebate cap still covers most of the tax, so the actual cost increase perceived by consumers is limited . At the same time, trade-in subsidy rules shifted from a fixed-amount structure to a tiered system based on the new vehicle price—higher-priced purchases yield subsidies closer to the cap, effectively steering consumer demand toward the premium segment . As a result, the share of B-segment, C-segment, and SUVs in China's NEV passenger car mix rose from 68.3% in 2025 to 73.6% in H1 2026—and these are precisely the models that predominantly use ternary battery cells. The rising share of premium models also directly lifted average battery capacity per vehicle . In May, the average battery capacity of BEV passenger cars reached 62 kWh, up 11% year-on-year, while PHEV passenger cars reached 37 kWh, up 37%. While automakers have been proactively increasing battery sizes to meet market demand, the more significant driver has been the compositional shift toward premium vehicles. This explains the apparent paradox: vehicle sales growth has been moderate, yet cathode material demand has surged—the key lies in the increase in battery capacity per unit . Overseas markets also contributed to the growth. European NEV sales rose approximately 30% year-on-year in the first half of the year, supported by local subsidy policies, high oil prices that favor NEVs, and the aggressive expansion of Chinese brands. Given that ternary batteries still account for more than 60% of Europe's NEV passenger car market , leading battery manufacturers serving the European market—such as CATL, EVE, AESC, and LGES—have maintained high procurement volumes of ternary cathode materials from China this year. Another notable feature of this year's production schedule has been its atypical seasonal pattern, largely influenced by raw material price volatility and policy shifts. On the raw material front, pricing between domestic ternary battery manufacturers and cathode producers is generally settled using a M-1 month metal price mechanism. This gives battery makers a strong incentive to build inventories ahead of anticipated price increases . For instance, in January, the SMM average monthly price of lithium hydroxide (coarse grains) surged to RMB 147,100 per ton, but the settlement price referenced the December price of RMB 88,800 per ton. This translated into a cost saving of more than RMB 26,000 per ton of cathode material, which is why production remained robust even during a traditionally slow month. A similar pattern played out in May, when the monthly average lithium hydroxide price rose by about RMB 20,000 per ton from the previous month, prompting another wave of restocking and driving cathode orders beyond expectations. On the policy side, the most significant impact came from the removal of the VAT rebate on ternary cathode exports, which pulled a large volume of export orders forward into Q1, breaking the typical seasonal slowdown. Domestic production in Q1 reached 236,000 metric tons, up 47% YoY. Notably, after the rebate was officially withdrawn, overseas orders did not drop sharply—Q2 still posted 34% YoY growth. This resilience can be attributed to two factors: first, overseas battery makers remain heavily reliant on Chinese cathode suppliers , who offer clear advantages in product quality, stable mass-production capabilities, and cost, making it difficult to switch suppliers in the short term. Second, overseas end-market demand remains solid , with popular models in Europe (Volkswagen ID series, BMW Neue Klasse, Renault, Hyundai IONIQ series, Tesla, etc.) and key models in Japan and Korea (Toyota, Hyundai, Kia, Tesla, etc.) continuing to rely on ternary chemistries. With order books full and procurement needs urgent, customers have little room to qualify new suppliers, which has only reinforced existing partnerships. Looking ahead to the second half of the year, the upcoming removal of the VAT rebate on lithium battery exports next year is expected to bring some orders forward into 2026. However, the market has already priced this in, and battery manufacturers have ample time to plan their inventory strategies, so a concentrated surge similar to the one seen ahead of the ternary rebate cancellation is unlikely. The purchase tax rebate will remain at the halved level next year and will not be fully phased out until the year after, so there is no additional pull-forward effect for Q4 2026. With orders already exceeding expectations in the first half and battery makers continuing to build inventories, the traditional "Golden September-Silver October" peak may be less pronounced this year. Still, seasonal patterns persist, and the market's inherent restocking momentum remains, so Q4 still warrants attention. SMM currently forecasts: 1.02 million metric tons of domestic ternary cathode production for 2026, up 24% year-on-year; 240,000 metric tons overseas, down 2%; and a global total of 1.26 million metric tons, up 18% .

On June 29, the China Automotive Battery Industry Innovation Alliance and the Zhongguancun Energy Storage Industry Technology Alliance jointly issued the "Initiative on Regulating Supplier Payment Terms for Power and Energy Storage Battery Enterprises." The initiative focuses on procurement transactions between power and energy storage battery and system integrator companies and their suppliers, offering specific recommendations on order confirmation and modification, delivery and acceptance, payment and settlement, and contract duration. On the same day, several companies including CATL, FinDreams Battery, Sunwoda Power, EVE Energy, and Hyperstrong sequentially announced their support. An official from the First Department of Equipment Industry of the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology (MIIT) stated that this initiative is an important step in implementing the "Regulation on Ensuring Payment to Small and Medium-sized Enterprises." It specifies requirements for order confirmation and modification, delivery and acceptance, and payment and settlement. For example, it stipulates that the acceptance period for materials and components should generally not exceed 7 working days; the payment cycle for SME suppliers should generally begin on the date of delivery or acceptance; it recommends that all payments to SMEs be made in cash; and it encourages both supply and demand parties to establish stable cooperative relationships and to sign long‑term framework agreements based on their existing cooperation.

Korea’s NEV market is recovering from late-2025 weakness, but the rebound remains HEV-led rather than BEV-driven. BEV share has improved, yet the recovery still lacks consistency. For Korean battery makers, domestic EV sales and export data alone are no longer sufficient indicators of demand recovery. ESS, supported by domestic policy demand and North American utility-scale projects, is emerging as a clearer growth channel.

This week (May 25-29, 2026), SMM #1 lead prices generally rose first and then declined. Downstream enterprises maintained cautious purchasing sentiment overall, with rigid demand dominating and insufficient purchase willingness at high prices. The spot market saw generally weak trading activity. Regionally, smelters in Henan initially offered firm quotes at a premium of 50-75 yuan/mt ex-factory. As lead prices pulled back during the week, premiums were gradually lowered to 25-50 yuan/mt. Traders showed significant divergence in quotes, with discounts against the SHFE lead 2607 contract gradually narrowing from 200-150 yuan/mt to 170-120 yuan/mt. In Hunan, smelter spot order premiums remained stable at 0-30 yuan/mt during the week, with some rigid demand transactions concluded near parity, and smelter shipments enthusiasm improved slightly. Smelters in Jiangxi and Anhui consistently offered firm quotes at a premium of 120-150 yuan/mt against the SMM #1 lead average price, with the elevated premium pattern remaining unchanged. Overall, downstream enterprises mainly purchased as needed on dips, and the market showed mediocre performance in transactions throughout the week.

CIBF2026 Solid-State Battery Recap: It’s Complicated – Everyone Is Moving Toward Solid-State, but Everyone Is Still Testing the Waters May 13–15, 2026 – The solid-state battery exhibition revealed that solid-state has become a "must-have" for exhibitors. However, technology paths (sulfide/oxide/semi-solid) remain deeply divided, the definition of "mass production" has been diluted, and most products are still in the sample-validation stage.