In May, China's aluminum fabrication industry recorded an overall PMI of 50.8%, barely staying above the 50 mark but pulling back significantly by 3.1 percentage points from April. Industry sentiment slid from the edge of expansion territory toward the critical threshold, with structural divergence intensifying further.

This week, the operating rate of China's leading downstream aluminum processing enterprises was 64.1%, down 0.3 percentage points WoW.

In April 2026, China's aluminum semis exports showed a strong rebound. According to customs data, April exports of aluminum semis (including aluminum extrusion, aluminum plate/sheet and strip, aluminum foil, etc.) reached 535,700 mt, up 20.9% MoM and up 9.8% YoY; exports of aluminum products (including aluminum wire, etc.) reached 318,000 mt, up 32.8% MoM and up 7.8% YoY. Cumulative aluminum semis exports from January to April totaled 1.1555 million mt, up 6.2% YoY cumulatively.

[Bullish and Bearish Factors Intertwined — Aluminum Prices Maintain LME Outperforms SHFE with Volatile Trend in the Short Term] On the fundamentals side, the supply gap outside China and low inventory continued to provide bottom support, but elevated inventory levels in China remained the core factor suppressing significant price rallies. In addition, weak trading performance in the spot market further limited the upside room for aluminum prices. Aluminum prices are expected to continue the pattern of LME outperforming SHFE and fluctuate at highs in the short term.

According to customs data, China's total aluminum foil exports (tariff codes 76071110, 76071120, 76071190, 76071900, 76072000) reached 114,400 mt in April 2026, up 10.5% MoM but down 6.2% YoY.

Overall, the aluminum processing industry achieved a slight edge up in operating rate this week, driven by the recovery of export orders, the surge in energy storage demand, and the recovery of infrastructure-related orders. The industry maintained relatively strong resilience, and going forward, attention should be focused on the sustainability of export orders and the boosting effect of aluminum price trends on demand.