SMM, July 9: Today, the SHFE aluminum 2608 contract opened at 23,075 yuan/mt, reached a high of 23,095 yuan/mt, dipped to a low of 22,850 yuan/mt, and finally settled at 23,060 yuan/mt, down 10 yuan/mt or 0.04% from the previous trading day. Trading volume was 165,200 lots and open interest was 227,700 lots, with a daily position drop of 4,248 lots. The price remained above the MA5 (22,960) and MA10 (22,822) but below the MA20 (23,332.75), MA40 (23,895.50), and MA60 (24,234.17). The short-term repair continued, but medium and long-term moving average pressure persisted on the upside. On the MACD indicator, the DIFF (-377.42) was above the DEA (-403.42), and a bar value of 52 was recorded. Short-term bearish momentum continued to narrow. Trading volume rose compared to the previous day, but the daily position drop of 4,248 lots showed continued capital outflow, suggesting insufficient upward momentum in the futures. SMM Commentary: Indirect technical talks between the US and Iran made progress as discussions focused on fund repatriation and strait security, and consultations on the nuclear issue are about to start. The geopolitical risk premium continued to converge, while disputes over the management of the Strait of Hormuz persist, leaving the strait's resumption of navigation still uncertain. A hawkish shift by the US Fed boosted the US dollar index, weighing on base metals prices. Aluminum prices in and outside China fell amid macro headwinds. In the short term, bearish factors dominated and aluminum prices are expected to continue in the doldrums. Today, the alumina 2609 contract opened at 2,704 yuan/mt, reached a high of 2,728 yuan/mt, dipped to a low of 2,698 yuan/mt, and finally settled at 2,720 yuan/mt, up 11 yuan/mt or 0.41%. Trading volume was 187,400 lots and open interest was 349,400 lots, with a daily position increase of 3,177 lots. The price reclaimed the MA5 (2,715.20) but stayed below the MA10 (2,750.60), MA20 (2,820.55), MA40 (2,808.73), and MA60 (2,813.25). It rebounded slightly in the short term, but the overall weak pattern has not yet reversed. On the MACD indicator, the DIFF (-34.63) was below the DEA (-19.66), and a bar value of -29.94 was recorded. Bearish momentum persisted but narrowed at the margin. Trading volume edged up from the previous day, and the daily position increase of 3,177 lots showed some capital inflows. However, the rebound was limited, and nearby moving average resistance warrants close attention in the short term. SMM Commentary: According to SMM statistics, as of this Thursday, China's total alumina inventory edged up WoW. By inventory structure, raw material inventory at aluminum smelters continued to destock slightly. However, restocking willingness was weak amid sharp recent price swings and market divergence over the outlook, and end-users mostly stayed on the sidelines. In-factory inventory at alumina refineries declined, mainly because some northern enterprises carried out periodic maintenance, prioritizing the drawdown of in-factory inventory under production constraints. This impact is expected to gradually fade after maintenance ends next week. Port inventory continued to build up, as high port arrivals from outside China supplemented spot supply with imported resources and increased market pressure. Overall, the oversupply pattern remained unchanged. Before the implementation of Guinea's bauxite quota policy, the market lacked clear bullish drivers. Next week, inventory is expected to shift from mild destocking to slight inventory buildup, supply-demand conditions will stay loose, and alumina prices will continue to consolidate on a weak note. [The information provided is for reference only. This article does not constitute direct advice for investment research or decision-making. Clients should make decisions prudently and not use it as a substitute for independent judgment. Any decisions made by clients are not related to Shanghai Metals Market.]

[SMM Zinc Morning Comment] Last Friday, the most-traded SHFE zinc 2608 contract opened at 24,400 yuan/mt. At the beginning of the session, it briefly dipped to a low of 24,340 yuan/mt. Subsequently, bulls added positions, and the contract drifted higher, hitting a high of 24,495 yuan/mt at the end of the session. It finally closed up at 24,470 yuan/mt, up 175 yuan/mt, or 0.72%. Trading volume decreased to 45,864 lots, while open interest increased by 494 lots to 90,804 lots.

This week, nickel prices experienced a sharp drop triggered by macro tightening expectations and a supply-side policy reversal. At the beginning of the week, nickel prices were still trading around 136,000 yuan/mt, but were subsequently pressured by a steadily rising US dollar index and higher US Treasury yields, which weighed on base metals prices. Adding to this, market rumors that Indonesia would significantly increase its full-year RKAB nickel ore quota reversed the previous supply contraction narrative of "quota tightening." Under the dual impact of macro and policy shocks, nickel prices fell below multiple support levels, including 130,000 and 127,000 yuan/mt. As of Friday, the cumulative weekly decline was nearly 6%, marking the largest weekly drop in recent months; LME nickel dropped to $16,700/mt, with a weekly loss of about 5%. In the spot market, the average price of SMM #1 refined nickel this week was 131,600 yuan/mt, down 8,250 yuan/mt WoW. The premium for Jinchuan nickel remained stable at 1,300-1,500 yuan/mt, while mainstream electrodeposited nickel discounts were in the -400 to -300 yuan/mt range. Affected by the steep decline in futures prices this week, downstream point-price activity was active and trading improved. On the macro front, the biggest headwind this week came from the strong hawkish signal sent by the US Fed's June FOMC meeting. On June 18, the Fed left its benchmark interest rate unchanged at 3.50%-3.75%, marking the fourth consecutive pause in interest rate cuts. The Fed's Summary of Economic Projections raised the median forecast for the federal funds rate in 2026 to 3.8% from 3.4% in March. This hawkish pivot boosted the US dollar index and pushed US Treasury yields higher, exerting significant pressure on base metals. Domestically, China's LPR quotes on June 22 remained unchanged, with the 1-year LPR at 3.0% and the 5-year and above LPR at 3.5%, continuing expectations of pro-growth policies. On the inventory front, Shanghai bonded zone inventory this week stood at about 2,700 mt, flat WoW. China's social inventory was approximately 129,000 mt, up 2,700 mt WoW. Nickel prices are currently under triple pressure from an abrupt shift in policy expectations, resonance of macro headwinds, and persistently high inventory overhang. The most-traded SHFE nickel contract is expected to trade in a core range of 125,000-135,000 yuan/mt next week.