The SHFE/LME zinc price ratio pulled back to around 6.8 and consolidated: This week, the ratio pulled back to around 6.8 and consolidated, closing the zinc ingot import window. Outside China, the US Fed stood pat at its July meeting, US GDP and PCE data missed expectations, and the pullback in the US dollar index boosted base metals. Meanwhile, LME inventory dropped to around 100,000 mt, and LME zinc remained relatively strong.

SHFE/LME zinc price ratio pulled back to around 6.8 and consolidated: This week, the ratio pulled back to around 6.8 and consolidated, while the zinc ingot import window closed. Outside China, the US Fed held steady at its July FOMC meeting, while US GDP and PCE data came in below expectations, causing the US dollar index to pull back and boost base metals. Meanwhile, LME zinc inventory fell to around 100,000 mt, and LME zinc remained relatively strong.

SMM, July 31 news: Metals market: As of the midday close, base metals in the domestic market mostly rose. SHFE copper rose 0.72%, SHFE aluminum rose 0.23%. SHFE lead fell 0.99%. SHFE zinc rose 0.87%. SHFE tin rose 1.89%. SHFE nickel rose 0.49%. In addition, the most-traded cast aluminum futures contract rose 0.15%, while the most-traded alumina contract fell 0.76%. The most-traded lithium carbonate contract extended the decline from the previous trading day, falling another 3.44%. The most-traded silicon metal contract rose 0.12%. The most-traded polysilicon futures contract rose 0.88%. Ferrous metals mostly fell. Iron ore fell 0.76%, rebar fell 0.5%, hot-rolled coil fell 0.86%. Stainless steel rose 0.41%. Coking coal and coke: the most-traded coking coal contract fell 3.48%, and the most-traded coke contract fell 2.93%. For base metals in the overseas market, as of 11:38, LME metals mostly rose. LME copper and LME aluminum edged up, with gains within 0.1%. LME lead fell 0.29%, LME zinc rose 0.35%. LME tin rose 0.1%. LME nickel fell 0.23%. For precious metals, as of 11:38, COMEX gold fell 0.68%, COMEX silver fell 0.74%. For domestic precious metals: SHFE gold rose 0.47%, the most-traded SHFE silver contract rose 0.97%. Additionally, as of the midday close, the most-traded platinum futures contract rose 1.11%, and the most-traded palladium futures contract rose 1.73%. As of the midday close, the most-traded European container shipping futures contract fell 0.23% to 1,722 points. As of 11:38 on July 31, some futures midday quotes: Spot and fundamentals Copper: Today, spot #1 copper cathode in Guangdong against the front-month contract: high-quality copper was quoted at 120 yuan/mt, down 30 yuan/mt from the previous trading day; standard-quality copper was at a premium of 40 yuan/mt, down 40 yuan/mt from the previous trading day; SX-EW copper was at a discount of 20 yuan/mt, down 40 yuan/mt from the previous trading day. The average price of #1 copper cathode in Guangdong was 105,790 yuan/mt, up 335 yuan/mt from the previous trading day; the average price of SX-EW copper was 105,690 yuan/mt, up 330 yuan/mt from the previous trading day. Spot market: Guangdong inventory fell for three consecutive days, mainly due to reduced arrivals... Macro front Domestic: [NDRC: Recently working with relevant departments to expeditiously formulate an implementation plan for the strategy of expanding domestic demand, 2026-2030] Zhou Hongwei, deputy director of the Department of National Economy under the National Development and Reform Commission (NDRC), said at a press conference that recently, the NDRC is working with relevant departments to expeditiously formulate an implementation plan for the strategy of expanding domestic demand (2026-2030). Going forward, the NDRC will work with relevant departments to more forcefully and effectively expand domestic demand. [NBS: July manufacturing PMI at 49.2%, business sentiment pulled back somewhat; high-tech manufacturing continued to expand] Data from the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) showed that in July, the manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) was 49.2%, down 1.1 percentage points MoM, with business sentiment pulling back somewhat. In July, the non-manufacturing business activity index was 49.0%, down 1.2 percentage points MoM, indicating a decline in non-manufacturing business sentiment from the previous month. In July, the composite PMI output index was 49.3%, down 1.3 percentage points MoM, suggesting that China's enterprise production and business activities slowed down MoM. Huo Lihui, chief statistician of the NBS Service Survey Center, said that in July, the manufacturing PMI pulled back, while high-tech manufacturing continued to expand. Due to a high base from the rapid growth of the manufacturing sector earlier and the onset of the traditional production off-season for some manufacturing industries, the manufacturing PMI fell to 49.2%. Equipment manufacturing and high-tech manufacturing continued to play a supporting and leading role. The PMIs for equipment manufacturing and high-tech manufacturing were 51.4% and 53.3%, respectively, significantly above the overall manufacturing level, maintaining relatively fast expansion and driving the manufacturing sector towards new and better development; the PMIs for consumer goods and high energy-consuming sectors were 47.8% and 47.0%, down 2.4 and 0.1 percentage points MoM, respectively, reflecting a pullback in business sentiment. [PBOC net injected 45 billion yuan via reverse repos today, open market operations net injected 421.5 billion yuan this week] The PBOC today conducted 134 billion yuan of 7-day reverse repos and 600 billion yuan of overnight reverse repos. With 89 billion yuan of 7-day reverse repos and 600 billion yuan of overnight reverse repos maturing today, a net injection of 45 billion yuan was achieved. This week, the PBOC conducted a total of 1,242 billion yuan of 7-day reverse repos and conducted 600 billion yuan of overnight reverse repos each day from the 29th to the 31st. With a total of 1,020.5 billion yuan of 7-day reverse repos and 400 billion yuan of 1-year MLF maturing this week, a net injection of 421.5 billion yuan was realized. (Jin10 data app) US dollar: As of 11:38, the US dollar index rose 0.24% to 100.22. Data released by the US government on Thursday showed that the US June PCE price index fell 0.1% MoM, the first monthly decline since the outbreak of the pandemic in 2020, further explaining why the Fed chose to keep rates unchanged this week. The annual PCE inflation rate slowed to 3.7% from the three-year high of 4.1% in May. However, it remains unclear whether inflation will continue to retreat. The cooling of inflation in June was mainly due to lower oil prices after the fragile temporary ceasefire between the US and Iran. The core PCE price index rose 0.1% MoM in June, below market expectations, and the YoY growth rate fell to 3.3% from 3.4%. The Fed considers the PCE price index, especially the core PCE, to be the most accurate indicator of US inflation trends. Currently, it shows that US inflation has been above the Fed's 2% target for the sixth consecutive year. According to CME "FedWatch": the probability that the Fed will keep rates unchanged in September is 36.6%, while the probability of a cumulative 25-basis-point rate hike is 63.4%. The probability that the Fed will keep rates unchanged in October is 26.9%, that of a cumulative 25-bps hike is 56.3%, and that of a cumulative 50-bps hike is 16.9%. Citigroup economists Andrew Hollenhorst and Veronica Clark said that Fed Chairman Warsh hinted that other inflation indicators beyond the PCE price index will play a larger role in monetary policy, reducing the likelihood of a near-term Fed rate hike. The core PCE inflation rate in June fell to 3.3% from 3.4%. By comparison, the core Consumer Price Index (CPI) was 2.6%, closer to the Fed's 2% target. Hollenhorst and Clark said: "In the coming months, the market should see more clearly that the broader inflation measures Warsh is focusing on do not show worrisome signs of accelerating inflation." The market currently expects a 59% probability of a Fed rate hike in September. However, the two economists believe this expectation may be wrong. (Jin10 data app) Other currencies: [BOJ voted 8-1 to keep rates unchanged, will hike rates as conditions warrant] The Bank of Japan (BOJ) kept its policy rate at 1% on Friday, as expected, after having raised the benchmark rate to the highest since 1995 last month. BOJ board member Hajime Takata dissented, calling for a 25-bps hike, arguing that the situation has entered a new phase and the BOJ needs to adopt a flexible approach to deal with upside price risks and changes in overseas financial conditions. The BOJ said it will continue to raise rates in accordance with economic, price developments and financial conditions, that underlying inflation is approaching 2%, financial conditions remain accommodative, and significant downside risks to economic activity and upside risks to prices have both diminished. In its latest economic outlook, the BOJ lowered its core CPI forecast for fiscal 2026 to 2.5% from 2.8%, and raised its GDP growth forecast for fiscal 2026 to 0.6% from 0.5%. (Jin10 data) Data: Today will see the release of US Q2 Employment Cost Index quarterly rate, US July Chicago PMI, US July University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index final reading, US July one-year inflation expectations final reading, US July one-year inflation expectations final reading, UK July Nationwide House Price Index monthly rate, Switzerland June real retail sales annual rate, France July CPI monthly rate preliminary, Germany July seasonally adjusted unemployment change, Germany July seasonally adjusted unemployment rate, Canada May GDP monthly rate, Eurozone July CPI annual rate preliminary, Eurozone July CPI monthly rate preliminary, Japan June unemployment rate, and Japan's central bank target rate through July 31, among other data. Additionally, attention should be paid to: China will open a new round of price adjustment window for refined oil products. Amazon and Apple reported earnings after the US stock market close on July 30, Japanese NAND flash memory manufacturer Kioxia reported earnings, the Bank of Japan released its interest rate decision and economic outlook report, and Bank of Japan Governor Ueda Kazuo held a monetary policy press conference. In crude oil: As of 11:38, oil prices in both markets declined, with US crude down 1.58% and Brent crude down 1.24%. The market saw a mix of bullish and bearish factors: mutual airstrikes between the US and Iran posed geopolitical risks, while recently rebounded shipping activity in the Strait of Hormuz eased some supply concerns. Traders remained cautious overall, with limited willingness to make big directional bets. (Wall Street Insights) The previously slowed crude oil transshipment services in the Strait of Hormuz have recently become active again, helping move millions of barrels of crude oil out of the strait. As hostilities in the Middle East escalate, this mode of transportation once again plays a critical role. This transshipment model emerged during the most intense period of conflict, becoming a vital lifeline for some oil-producing countries to maintain exports. Relevant vessels transport crude oil from the Persian Gulf—typically turning off their Automatic Identification System (AIS) transponders to avoid detection—and then conduct ship-to-ship (STS) transfers outside the Strait of Hormuz, after which the receiving tanker delivers the crude oil to buyers around the world. Although crude oil transported through the Strait of Hormuz remains below pre-war levels, the crude that has been successfully shipped has played an important role in alleviating market concerns about oil price surges. Two people with direct knowledge of the matter said that for at least two shipping enterprises involved in Strait of Hormuz transport, transshipment volumes are now near levels seen before the escalation of hostilities. (Jin10 Data APP) According to Reuters, citing shipping data firm Kpler, 25 commercial cargo vessels passed through the Bab el-Mandeb Strait on Thursday, while shipping activity in the Strait of Hormuz remains at low levels, with only two oil tankers passing through. Out of the 25 vessels transiting through the Bab el-Mandeb Strait, 18 entered the waterway while 7 departed. These included 2 VLCCs, 1 Suezmax tanker, and 5 Aframax tankers. Meanwhile, both vessels passing through the Strait of Hormuz were sailing empty. (Jin10 Data App) Spot Market Overview: ► ► ► ► ► ► ► ► ►

[SMM Tin Morning Brief: SHFE tin 2609 night session rose 2.15% to 426,800, heightened volatility in consolidation at highs above 420,000]

SMM July 31 news: Metals Market Overnight, base metals on both domestic and overseas markets generally rose, with LME lead and SHFE lead falling, LME lead down 0.18% and SHFE lead down 0.67%. LME tin and SHFE zinc rose over 2%, with LME tin up 2.52% and SHFE tin up 2.15%. LME copper, LME zinc, and LME nickel all rose over 1%, with LME copper up 1.3%, LME zinc up 1.02%, and LME nickel also up 1.02%. Alumina main contract fell 0.34%, while cast aluminum main contract rose 0.39%. Overnight, the ferrous metals complex mostly fell, with only stainless steel rising, up 0.51%. Iron ore fell 0.96%, hot-rolled coil fell 0.74%, and rebar fell 0.56%. For coking coal and coke, coking coal fell 2.35% and coke fell 1.86%. In precious metals, overnight COMEX gold rose 1.61%, and COMEX silver rose 2.02%. Domestically, SHFE gold rose 1.2%, and SHFE silver rose 1.82%. As of 6:42 a.m. on July 31, overnight closing prices: Macro Front China: [The Political Bureau of the CPC Central Committee held a meeting, decided to convene the Fifth Plenary Session of the 20th CPC Central Committee, and analyzed and studied the current economic situation and economic work] The Political Bureau of the CPC Central Committee held a meeting on July 30 and decided that the Fifth Plenary Session of the 20th Central Committee of the Communist Party of China will be held in Beijing in October this year. The main agenda is for the Political Bureau to report its work to the Central Committee and study major issues concerning persistently advancing full and rigorous Party self-governance. The meeting analyzed and studied the current economic situation and made arrangements for economic work in H2. Xi Jinping, General Secretary of the CPC Central Committee, presided over the meeting. It was noted at the meeting that since the 18th CPC National Congress, full and rigorous Party self-governance has achieved great accomplishments, opening a new chapter in the self-reform of a century-old party, and driving historic achievements and transformations in the cause of the Party and the country, securing the historical initiative of strengthening both the Party and the nation. At the same time, as profound changes take place in global, national and Party conditions, full and rigorous Party self-governance faces many new circumstances and problems. The entire Party must, from the strategic perspective of consolidating the Party’s ruling position and fulfilling its missions and tasks, deeply recognize the great significance of persistently advancing full and rigorous Party self-governance, strengthen confidence, maintain resolve, uphold and apply the valuable experience of full and rigorous Party self-governance in the new era with higher standards and more concrete measures, address and solve prominent problems in Party building, and consolidate and develop the positive political environment formed through governing the Party. [National Energy Administration: China's renewable energy power generation share exceeded 40% for the first time in H1] From the press conference held by the National Energy Administration, it was learned that in H1, China’s renewable energy developed rapidly, with its power generation accounting for more than 40% of total generation for the first time. In H1, national renewable energy power generation reached nearly 2 trillion kWh, up about 9% YoY, accounting for 41.2% of total power generation, exceeding 40% for the first time. Among this, wind and solar power generation totaled 1.25 trillion kWh, up 9.3% YoY. In terms of installations, new renewable energy installations in H1 reached 117 million kW, accounting for 73.9% of total new installations, continuing to dominate new capacity. As of end-June, the country’s renewable energy installed capacity reached 2.455 billion kW, accounting for over 60% of China’s total installed capacity. (CCTV News) [China’s coal-fired power generation share fell below 50% of total generation for the first time in H1] From today’s press conference held by the National Energy Administration, it was learned that in H1, China’s green and low-carbon energy transformation accelerated. As of end-June, combined wind and solar power installed capacity reached 1.95 billion kW, up 16.8% YoY. In terms of power generation, wind and solar power generation exceeded 1.2 trillion kWh in H1, accounting for about a quarter of the country’s total electricity consumption. Meanwhile, China’s coal-fired power generation was 2.5 trillion kWh, with its share of total generation falling to 49.7%, marking the first time that H1 coal-fired generation share fell below 50%. (CCTV News) Dollar: As of the overnight close, the US dollar index continued to fall, dropping 0.83% to 99.98, breaking below the 100 integer level and posting a three-day losing streak. US economic growth in Q2 was lower than expected, but strong consumer spending and business investment indicated resilient domestic demand. Preliminary data released Thursday by the Commerce Department’s Bureau of Economic Analysis showed that Q2 annualized real GDP growth was 1.5%, below market expectations. A decline in net exports dragged on the overall figure, but consumer spending and business investment remained strong, partially offsetting external pressures. Data released Thursday by the US government showed that the US PCE price index fell 0.1% MoM in June, the first monthly decline since the pandemic in 2020, further explaining why the Fed chose to keep rates unchanged this week. The PCE annual inflation rate slowed to 3.7% from May’s three-year high of 4.1%. However, it remains unclear whether inflation will continue to ease. The cooling in June was mainly due to falling oil prices after the US and Iran reached a fragile temporary ceasefire agreement. The core PCE price index rose 0.1% MoM in June, below market expectations, and the YoY growth rate dropped from 3.4% to 3.3%. The Fed regards the PCE index, especially the core PCE, as the most accurate gauge of US inflation trends. Currently, the gauge shows US inflation has been above the Fed’s 2% target for a sixth consecutive year. (Jin10 Data APP) According to CME “FedWatch”: The probability of the Fed keeping rates unchanged through September is 36.6%, while the probability of a cumulative 25bp rate hike is 63.4%. The probability of the Fed keeping rates unchanged through October is 26.9%, that of a cumulative 25bp hike is 56.3%, and that of a cumulative 50bp hike is 16.9%. (Jin10 Data APP) Macro: Today the market will see the release of China’s July official manufacturing PMI, US Q2 employment cost index QoQ, US July Chicago PMI, US July University of Michigan consumer sentiment index final reading, US July one-year inflation expectations final reading, UK July Nationwide house price index MoM, Switzerland June real retail sales YoY, France July CPI MoM preliminary, Germany July seasonally adjusted unemployment change and unemployment rate, Canada May GDP MoM, Eurozone July CPI YoY preliminary and MoM preliminary, Japan June unemployment rate, and the Bank of Japan target rate as of July 31. In addition, China will start a new round of fuel price adjustments. Amazon and Apple reported earnings after the US stock market close on July 30. Japanese NAND flash memory maker Kioxia reported earnings. The Bank of Japan released its interest rate decision and economic outlook report. BOJ Governor Kazuo Ueda held a press conference on monetary policy. Crude Oil: Overnight, oil prices on both markets declined, with WTI down 0.59% and Brent down 1.23%, as the market continued to await progress on the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz. The recently slowing crude oil lightering service in the Strait of Hormuz has revived, helping move millions of barrels of crude out of the strait. Amid escalating hostilities in the Middle East, this transport method has once again played a key role. The lightering mode emerged during the most intense period of conflict and has become a vital lifeline for some oil-producing countries to maintain exports. Vessels transport crude from the Persian Gulf—often with their Automatic Identification System (AIS) transponders turned off to avoid detection—and then conduct ship-to-ship (STS) transfers with another tanker outside the Strait of Hormuz, which then delivers the crude to buyers around the world. Although crude transport through the Strait of Hormuz is still below pre-conflict levels, the crude that has been successfully shipped out has played an important role in easing market concerns about oil price spikes. Two people with direct knowledge said at least two shipping companies involved in Hormuz transport have seen their lightering volume approach pre-escalation levels. (Jin10 Data APP) Turkey expects crude oil flows from Iraq to continue despite the failure to renew a decades-old pipeline agreement that expired on Monday, according to Turkish officials familiar with the matter. Officials said talks on Tuesday between Turkish President Erdogan and Iraqi Prime Minister Ali Zaidi on the 986 km (613 mile) Kirkuk-Ceyhan pipeline failed to reach a final result, but the two sides agreed to keep crude flowing while negotiations continue. They added that any eventual agreement would be backdated to July 27, the expiration date of the previous 53-year deal. (Jin10 Data APP)

SMM July 30 News: In the metals market: As of the midday close, domestic base metals generally rose. SHFE copper edged up, SHFE aluminum rose 1.03%. SHFE lead fell 0.25%. SHFE zinc edged down. SHFE tin gained 0.49%. SHFE nickel rose 0.28%. Besides, the most-traded cast aluminum futures rose 0.63%, the most-traded alumina futures fell 1.94%. The most-traded lithium carbonate futures fell 1.76%. The most-traded silicon metal futures fell 0.31%. The most-traded polysilicon futures continued the decline from the previous two trading days, falling another 1.57%. Ferrous metals mostly fell. Iron ore fell 2.16%, rebar fell 1.43%, hot-rolled coil fell 1.06%. Stainless steel rose 0.28%. In terms of coking coal and coke: the most-traded coking coal contract fell 1.33%, the most-traded coke contract fell 1.17%. In the overseas base metals market, as of 11:38, LME metals almost all rose. LME copper, LME aluminum, LME lead, and LME zinc all gained within 0.5%. LME tin rose 0.6%. LME nickel fell 0.38%. In the precious metals market, as of 11:38, COMEX gold rose 0.34%, COMEX silver fell 0.84%. In the domestic precious metals market: SHFE gold rose 0.43%, the most-traded SHFE silver contract rose 0.16%. Besides, as of the midday close, the most-traded platinum futures fell 0.98%, the most-traded palladium futures fell 0.99%. As of the midday close, the most-traded European container freight index futures fell 2.68% to 1,688 points. As of 11:38 on July 30, some midday futures market conditions: Spot and Fundamentals Aluminum: During the morning session, the center of the SHFE aluminum 2608 contract was higher than the same period of the previous trading day. The rise in aluminum prices significantly dampened market purchasing sentiment. On the day, some suppliers quoted at parity with the SHFE aluminum 2608 contract, with market acceptance remaining weak. The mainstream transaction price was mainly from SHFE aluminum 2608 contract at a discount of 10 yuan/mt to parity... Macro Front Domestically: [National Energy Administration: H1 China's renewable energy power generation share exceeded 40% for the first time] According to the press conference of the National Energy Administration, in H1, China's renewable energy developed rapidly, with power generation accounting for over 40% of total power generation for the first time. In H1, national renewable energy power generation was nearly 2 trillion kWh, up about 9% YoY, accounting for 41.2% of total power generation, exceeding 40% for the first time. Among them, wind and solar power generation totaled 1.25 trillion kWh, up 9.3% YoY. In terms of installations, China's renewable energy new installations reached 117 million kW in H1, accounting for 73.9% of total new installations, continuing to hold the dominant position. As of the end of June, China's renewable energy installations reached 2.455 billion kW, accounting for over 60% of China's total installed capacity. (CCTV News) [China's coal-fired power generation share of total power generation fell below 50% for the first time in H1] It was learned from a press conference held by the National Energy Administration today that the pace of China's green and low-carbon energy transition accelerated in H1. As of the end of June, the combined installed capacity of wind and solar power reached 1.95 billion kW, up 16.8% YoY. In terms of power generation, total wind and solar power generation exceeded 1.2 trillion kWh in H1, accounting for roughly one-quarter of total electricity consumption. Meanwhile, China's coal-fired power generation was 2.5 trillion kWh, with its share of total power generation dropping to 49.7%, marking the first time the share fell below 50% in H1. (CCTV News) The PBOC conducted a 270.5 billion yuan 7-day reverse repo operation in the open market at an operation rate of 1.40%, unchanged from the previous operation. Meanwhile, it conducted a 600 billion yuan overnight reverse repo operation. Today, 804 billion yuan of reverse repos matured. > On July 30, the central parity rate of the RMB against the US dollar in the interbank foreign exchange market was 6.7892 yuan per US dollar. The US dollar: As of 11:38, the US dollar index rose 0.12% to 100.94. On Wednesday, July 29 (ET), the US Fed announced after the FOMC meeting that the target range for the federal funds rate would remain unchanged at 3.50% to 3.75%. To date, after cutting rates at three consecutive meetings through the end of last year, the FOMC has stood pat at all five monetary policy meetings since the start of 2026. The decision was in line with market expectations. (From Wallstreetcn APP) Fed Chairman Warsh reiterated at the start of the press conference that the Fed is firmly committed to achieving its 2% YoY inflation target. Warsh stated that the committee would unwaveringly pursue price stability. Given the current environment of heightened uncertainty, refraining from providing forward guidance is a "prudent" approach. He stressed to reporters that the Fed has no so-called "soft inflation target" or any other implicit target; the sole inflation goal is 2%. Regarding the overall economy, Warsh said the US economy has shown "impressive resilience," and while it has faced a series of shocks recently, the overall trend remains positive. (Jin10 Data APP) According to CME "FedWatch": The probability of the Fed keeping rates unchanged by September is 36.8%, the probability of a cumulative 25-basis-point rate hike is 63.2%, and the probability of a cumulative 50-basis-point hike is 0% (These probabilities were 17.8%, 60.2%, and 22% before the Fed decision, respectively.)The probability of the US Fed keeping rates unchanged through October is 26.2%, while the probabilities of cumulative rate hikes of 25 bps, 50 bps, and 75 bps are 55.6%, 18.2%, and 0%, respectively (versus 11.9%, 46.1%, 34.7%, and 7.3% before the Fed decision). (Jin10 Data APP) A CICC research report noted that the US Fed kept rates unchanged at its July meeting, but hawkish sentiment within strengthened further as three voting members supported a 25 bps rate hike. We believe the greatest change from this meeting was not the rate decision, but rather Fed Chairman Warsh’s attempt to reduce policy intervention and rely more on a spontaneous rise in market rates to tighten financial conditions, outsourcing part of the tightening function to the market. However, against the backdrop of inflation persistently exceeding the target, this approach could easily undermine market confidence in the Fed’s policy credibility. After the meeting, long-end US Treasury yields surged and the curve steepened notably, likely reflecting investors beginning to price in higher long-term inflation and policy risks. Looking ahead, we believe that if employment or inflation data exceed expectations, the market will not only further raise expectations for a September rate hike, but may also price in the risk of the Fed acting “too late.” Long-end rates could rise further, and risk assets would face greater adjustment pressure. T. Rowe Price Chief US Economist Blerina Uruci said that, assuming oil prices do not spike and inflation trends lower, the Fed could keep rates unchanged at its September meeting. She said in a report that, given the number of dissent votes at Wednesday’s FOMC meeting and oil price uncertainty, market expectations for the September rate decision reflect a roughly 50-50 chance. The market will continue to pressure the Fed and may not back down until inflation data forces it to act, maintaining the view that the Fed will keep rates unchanged. The US core CPI data for June did not influence the Fed’s decision, she added, noting that Warsh is watching this trend and that “with a bit of luck, this trend could play in his favor in a few months.” DBS Group Research Senior FX Strategist Philip Wee said in a commentary that the US dollar could be weighed down by the divergence in forward guidance between the Fed and other central banks. By removing forward guidance and keeping rates unchanged, Fed Chairman Warsh has brought the Fed into a monetary “mirror maze,” resulting in volatile consequences. Warsh has left the US market “groping in the dark.” In contrast, the European Central Bank has been more unified in signaling a rate hike in September, which gives the euro a clear comparative advantage. If the Bank of England defies the broad consensus of holding rates steady and unexpectedly hikes later today, the pound is likely to appreciate. (Jin10 Data APP) Other currencies: [Data Dove, Market Hawk: Bank of England Faces Policy Signal Test on Thursday] Rate futures markets are firmly betting on a Bank of England rate hike in November. The BoE will announce its rate decision, meeting minutes, and latest economic forecasts on Thursday, followed by a press conference from Governor Bailey. Most economists surveyed by Reuters expect the MPC to keep rates unchanged 7-2, holding steady throughout the year. Previously, UK CPI fell to a 15-month low in June, while private sector wage growth was the weakest since 2020. The government led by new Prime Minister Andy Burnham has prioritized tackling the cost-of-living crisis, announcing the removal of VAT on household electricity bills. Almost no fundamentals side logic supports a Bank of England rate hike. However, rate futures data on Wednesday pointed to a 25bp hike in November and another in March 2027. Data: Today will see the release of US initial jobless claims for the week ending July 25, US core PCE price index YoY for June, US personal spending MoM for June, US Q2 real GDP annualized QoQ advance, US Q2 real personal consumption expenditures QoQ advance, US Q2 core PCE price index annualized QoQ advance, US core PCE price index MoM for June, Eurozone Q2 GDP YoY advance, Eurozone June unemployment rate, Eurozone July industrial confidence index, Eurozone July economic sentiment index, France Q2 GDP YoY advance, Swiss July KOF leading indicator, UK Bank Rate decision, Germany Q2 non-seasonally adjusted GDP YoY advance, and Germany July CPI MoM advance. Crude oil: As of 11:38, both crude oil benchmarks were down, with WTI down 1.04% and Brent down 1.15%. Although the Middle East conflict has continued to escalate, data shows tankers are still leaving the region. Kpler shipping data showed 37 cargo ships passed through the Bab el-Mandeb Strait on Tuesday, the highest since July 19, while only a few passed through the Strait of Hormuz. Among the vessels passing through the strait, 20 entered and 17 departed. There were no VLCCs or LNG carriers. Among the departing vessels, three Aframax tankers were laden with crude oil: the Aisopos and Gustav, carrying over 750,000 barrels of crude, were heading to the Gulf of Aden, while the Karachi, with about 430,000 barrels, was bound for Pakistan. Among the inbound ships, two carried petrochemical products: the Velos Aquarius delivered 345,000 barrels of MTBE to areas west of the Suez, and the Sea Ambition shipped nearly 93,000 barrels of chemicals to Turkey. (Jin10 Data APP) The UAE's Abu Dhabi National Oil Company (Adnoc) is continuing to export LNG from its Persian Gulf facilities, despite renewed conflict in the region forcing producers to limit shipments through the Strait of Hormuz. According to shipping data, an empty LNG carrier owned by Adnoc appeared in the Persian Gulf on Wednesday. The voyage is a rare occurrence, as visible traffic in the strait has largely halted since the attack on a Qatari LNG vessel earlier this month. Meanwhile, satellite images show ongoing cargo loadings, and on Friday an oil tanker was docked at the UAE's Das Island export terminal. These developments underscore that, despite the breakdown of US-Iran peace talks leading to tanker attacks near the strait, fuel exporters are still striving to maintain normal shipping operations. (Jin10 Data APP) Government data released by the US Energy Information Administration on Wednesday showed that commercial crude oil inventories plunged by 7.2 million barrels last week, while the Strategic Petroleum Reserve (SPR) decreased by 3.8 million barrels to 307.7 million barrels, the lowest level in over 40 years. Meanwhile, US refinery capacity utilization rate has climbed to 97%, with some areas in the Midwest running at full 100% capacity. The direct trigger for this sharp inventory drawdown was the renewed military conflict between the US and Iran over the past week. The ongoing US-Iran hostilities have severely restricted tanker traffic through the Strait of Hormuz, and supplies of oil and petrochemical products from the Middle East face ongoing disruptions. (from Wall Street CN APP) On July 29 local time, Farhan Haq, Deputy Spokesman for the UN Secretary-General, said at a regular press briefing at UN Headquarters in New York that the recent fighting in the Middle East is showing a trend of further escalation. UN Secretary-General António Guterres is deeply concerned about the escalation of the conflict and the involvement of more countries, and called on all parties concerned to cease hostilities and return to diplomatic negotiations and mediation. Responding to a question about a drone attack on a natural gas storage facility at Egypt's Damietta port, Haq said the UN does not have first-hand information on the incident, but expressed concern that as the conflict continues, more countries could be affected. (CCTV News) Spot Market Overview: ► ► ► ► ► ► ► ► ► ► ► ►