June 16 (SMM) — Metals market: As of the midday close, base metals on the domestic market mostly rose. SHFE copper fell 0.47%, SHFE aluminum lost 1.69%, SHFE lead gained 0.96%, SHFE zinc added 0.45%, SHFE tin climbed 1.17%, and SHFE nickel edged up 0.27%. In addition, the most-traded bonded aluminum futures contract dropped 1.03%, the most-traded alumina contract fell 0.48%, the most-traded lithium carbonate contract slid 2.4%, the most-traded silicon metal contract lost 1.6%, and the most-traded polysilicon futures contract tumbled 5.01%. Ferrous metals mostly fell. Iron ore dipped 0.2%, rebar declined 0.38%, HRC edged down 0.24%, while stainless steel surged 2.67%. In the coking coal and coke segment, the most-traded coking coal contract fell 0.74%, while the most-traded coke contract rose 0.1%. On the overseas base metals front, as of 11:39, LME metals showed mixed performance. LME copper fell 0.48%, LME aluminum lost 0.71%, LME lead gained 0.18%, LME zinc added 0.14%, LME tin dropped 0.63%, and LME nickel rose 0.34%. In precious metals, as of 11:39, COMEX gold fell 0.21% and COMEX silver lost 0.68%. On the domestic precious metals side, the most-traded SHFE gold contract gained 1.63% and the most-traded SHFE silver contract rose 1.65%. Additionally, as of the midday close, the most-traded platinum futures contract fell 1.44% and the most-traded palladium futures contract lost 1.33%. As of the midday close, the most-traded containerized freight index (European service) futures contract gained 1.42% to 3,834 points. Selected futures midday prices as of 11:39 on June 16: Spot and fundamentals Silver: In the spot market, overall quoted price spreads remained wide today. The consumer market showed overall weakness in mid-to-late June, with the continued rally in silver prices dampening some demand... Macro front China: [National Bureau of Statistics: Value-added of industrial enterprises above designated size grew 4.5% in May; national economy ran generally stable and progressed toward new, higher-quality growth] In May, under the strong leadership of the CPC Central Committee with Comrade Xi Jinping at its core, all regions and departments earnestly implemented the decisions and arrangements of the Central Committee and the State Council. They adhered to the general principle of pursuing progress while maintaining stability, fully and faithfully applied the new development philosophy on all fronts, accelerated the building of a new development paradigm, earnestly carried out more proactive and impactful macro policies, and effectively addressed external shocks and challenges. Production and supply rose steadily, employment and prices remained generally stable, foreign trade continued to demonstrate resilience, new growth drivers grew stronger, and the national economy sustained a development trend of overall stability while progressing toward new, higher-quality growth. NBS data showed that in May, the value-added of industrial enterprises above designated size grew by 4.5% YoY in real terms, with the growth rate accelerating by 0.4 percentage points from the previous month. On a MoM basis, the value-added of industrial enterprises above designated size increased by 0.40% in May. From January to May, it grew by 5.4% YoY. [From Scale Expansion to Resilience Allocation 《China Bulk Commodity Development Report》 Released] The China Federation of Logistics and Purchasing today (June 16) released the *China Bulk Commodity Development Report (2026)*. According to the report, China remains one of the most important import markets for bulk commodities globally, with imports of crude oil, iron ore, soybeans and other commodities staying at high levels. In the face of challenges, the bulk commodity market has shown enhanced resilience. The report indicates that China's bulk commodity market from 2025 to 2026 has generally exhibited a fundamental pattern of "macro pressure, market divergence, intensifying external shocks, enhanced trade resilience, and accelerated capacity building." China's bulk commodity trade is shifting from scale expansion to resilience-oriented allocation. In 2025, China's merchandise trade scale maintained relatively strong resilience, and major bulk commodity imports remained at high levels. Among them, imports of crude oil, iron ore, soybeans and other commodities continued to demonstrate the global absorption capacity of the Chinese market. (CCTV News) [PBOC Reverse Repo Net Injection Today of RMB 296.5 Billion] The PBOC today conducted RMB 449.5 billion of 7-day reverse repo operations. As RMB 153 billion of 7-day reverse repo matured today, the net injection reached RMB 296.5 billion for the day. As for the US dollar: As of 11:39, the US dollar index rose 0.02% to 99.69. According to the CME "FedWatch": the probability that the Fed keeps rates unchanged in June is 98.5%, with a 1.5% probability of a cumulative 25 bp rate cut. The probability that the Fed keeps rates unchanged through July is 91.3%, a cumulative 25 bp rate hike is 7.4%, and a cumulative 25 bp rate cut is 1.4%. Falconio Leslie, head of taxable fixed income strategy at UBS Global Wealth Management, said that after the US and Iran announced a deal, oil prices pulled back, the US Treasury market strengthened, and pressure on the Fed to raise rates this year was easing. Falconio Leslie said: "Even before the ceasefire agreement was reached, oil prices had already started to pull back, yet the two-year US Treasury yield continued to rise because the market had priced in a near-100% probability of a rate hike in December.""The current situation is that oil prices are falling, and the market is gradually withdrawing these rate hike expectations. As a result, the two-year US Treasury yield has started to pull back." The newly appointed Fed Chairman Wash will chair his first interest rate decision this week. Against the backdrop of earlier crude oil price surges reigniting inflationary pressures, voices within the FOMC supporting rate hikes this year have been increasing. Falconio said she expects the FOMC to formally drop its easing bias at this week's meeting, making the policy outlook more hawkish. But she still believes the Fed's next move will be an interest rate cut, and it will happen in 2027. US asset management company PGIM holds a fringe view, believing the Fed will hike rates three times this year to curb overheating, and then reverse the hikes in 2027 . The company had previously expected in April that the Fed would cut interest rates this year. PGIM stated that the US economy is "exceptionally strong" and inflation remains persistently high, requiring a new approach. Given this backdrop, and considering that the Fed has failed to achieve its 2% target for five consecutive years, PGIM expects the Fed to hike rates three times this year to bolster its credibility and anchor inflation expectations. PGIM said, "If the rate hikes are framed as 'precautionary' measures to address supply-side inflation and recent long-term Treasury yield fluctuations, then Wash will gain political support." However, PGIM said it expects the Fed "will reverse these hikes relatively quickly, with three rate cuts in 2027 and another in 2028, bringing the terminal rate to 3.375% — below the current rate and possibly close to the neutral rate." (Jin10 Data APP) In other currencies: The Bank of Japan raised its key rate by 25 basis points, lifting its target rate from 0.75% to 1.00%, the highest level in 31 years, in line with market expectations, after standing pat at its previous three meetings. The BOJ raised rates to the highest in 31 years on Tuesday, a long-awaited move signaling its commitment to tackling inflation risks from the Middle East conflict. At the end of the two-day meeting on Tuesday, the board voted 7-1 to raise the short-term policy rate from 0.75% to 1.0%. This marked the first rate hike since last December, bringing the BOJ's policy rate to a level not seen since 1995. BOJ Governor Ueda Kazuo was absent from the meeting and did not vote, as he was hospitalized for medical treatment. An afternoon press conference will be led by another BOJ deputy governor, Uchida Shinichi, and his remarks will be closely watched for how the BOJ will continue to assess the negative economic impact of the Iran war. (Jinshi Data APP) [RBA holds rates steady as expected, but warns rate hikes may not be over] The Reserve Bank of Australia kept the cash rate unchanged at 4.35% on Tuesday, saying the economy is slowing despite tighter financial conditions, but warned it could hike again if needed to control inflation. The RBA said inflation remains high and the central bank will do whatever is necessary to bring it down, "including by raising the cash rate target further if needed." Markets had already priced in a hold, as domestic inflation, consumption, and employment data continued to soften; meanwhile, the Middle East peace deal and moves to reopen the Strait of Hormuz have pushed oil prices lower, reducing inflation risks. The Board said in its statement: "The resolution of the Middle East conflict is still at an early stage, and there remain plausible scenarios where inflation is above, and activity is below, the expectations set out in the May baseline forecasts. It will take some time for global oil supply issues to be resolved, which will continue to put upward pressure on global energy prices and inflation." The unanimous decision was largely in line with expectations, with swap markets pricing in around a 30% chance of an RBA rate hike in August and only 16 basis points of tightening for the full year—equivalent to less than one hike. (Jinshi Data APP) On the data front: Today will bring the US weekly ADP employment change for the week ending May 30, US May housing starts annualized, US May building permits, US May import price index month-over-month, the Reserve Bank of Australia's interest rate decision for June 16, Germany's June ZEW economic sentiment index, the Eurozone's June ZEW economic sentiment index, Japan's central bank target rate for June 16, and other data. Also watch for: The State Council Information Office holds a press conference on national economic performance. The China Academy of Information and Communications Technology holds a seminar to launch the High-Quality Token Service Capability Climbing Plan. The RBA announces its rate decision, and RBA Governor Bullock holds a monetary policy press conference. On the crude oil front: As of 11:39, crude prices in both markets fell, with WTI down 0.09% and Brent down 0.26%. With the Trump administration about to complete the plan to release 172 million barrels from the Strategic Petroleum Reserve (SPR) to ease the surge in fuel prices triggered by the Iran war, the US emergency crude stockpile has fallen to its lowest level since 1983. According to data released by the US Department of Energy on Monday, the SPR—established after the Arab oil embargo in the early 1970s—has dropped to about 340 million barrels, near its all-time low. If the plan is completed, this will be the second-largest release in the history of the reserve, leaving about 243 million barrels, which is only around a third of its statutory capacity. The dwindling inventory reduces the US's flexibility in responding to future supply disruptions. A Department of Energy spokesperson said the government is managing the reserve in accordance with its intended use, which is to help stabilize the oil market, protect the US from supply disruptions, and make the US more energy-secure. (Jin10 Data App) Morgan Stanley sharply lowered its oil price forecasts for the coming quarters, as a tentative agreement between the US and Iran to reopen the Strait of Hormuz is expected to restore regional oil production and increase supply. Analysts including Martijn Rats said in a June 15 report that Brent crude is expected to average $90 per barrel in Q3, down from a previous forecast of $100 per barrel, and $80 per barrel in the final three months of the year, a decline of $15 from the earlier estimate. They also noted that the expected timeline for the region's production recovery has been moved forward by one to two weeks. "Many issues still need to be negotiated, and key risks remain, but this is a significant step towards de-escalating the conflict and boosting oil exports through the Strait of Hormuz," they said, adding, "Production is expected to resume gradually from mid-July, with output anticipated to recover to 50% by September, 80% by December, and the remainder early in 2027." (Jin10 Data App) Spot Market Overview: ► ► ► ► ► ► ► ► ► ► ► ►

SMM June 16 News: Metals Market: Overnight, base metals on the domestic and overseas markets showed mixed performance. LME tin led the gains with a 2.54% increase, while SHFE tin rose 1.52%. SHFE aluminum fell 1.8%, and LME aluminum dropped 4.52%, with the rest of the metals posting % changes within 1%. Alumina main contract fell 1.5%, and cast aluminum main contract declined 1.41%. Overnight, ferrous metals generally fell. Iron ore rose 0.39%, hot-rolled coil edged up 0.18%, and stainless steel gained 1.72%, while declines for the remaining metals were relatively small. For coking coal and coke, coking coal fell 0.7% and coke dipped 0.36%. Overnight in precious metals, COMEX gold rose 2.18% and COMEX silver jumped 3.07%. Domestically, SHFE gold gained 1.77% and SHFE silver climbed 2.49%. Overnight closing prices as of 6:44 AM on June 16: Macro Front Domestically: [NDRC and other departments: Launch a three-year action plan targeting energy conservation and carbon reduction upgrades in key sectors] The National Development and Reform Commission (NDRC) and other departments decided to organize and implement a three-year action plan targeting energy conservation and carbon reduction upgrades in key sectors including steel, aluminum, cement, flat glass, oil refining, ethylene, synthetic ammonia, methanol, and coal-fired power. It was mentioned that these key industries account for large-scale, high-intensity energy consumption and carbon dioxide emissions, making them the top priority for improving energy efficiency, reducing coal consumption, and lowering carbon emissions. Starting in 2026, the plan will focus on nine sectors—steel, aluminum, cement, flat glass, oil refining, ethylene, synthetic ammonia, methanol, and coal-fired power—to fully implement energy conservation and carbon reduction upgrades over three years, driving enterprises to elevate their energy and carbon efficiency levels as much as possible and significantly improve the industry's green, low-carbon development. Starting in 2028, the implementation scope is to be further expanded based on actual conditions, with additional sectors advanced progressively, and various regions can proceed in an orderly manner ahead of schedule in line with work needs. [PBOC's reverse repo delivers a net injection of 206.5 billion yuan today] The People's Bank of China conducted 425 billion yuan in seven-day reverse repo operations at an interest rate of 1.40%, unchanged from the previous day. Today, 218.5 billion yuan in reverse repo matured. US Dollar: Overnight, the US dollar index edged down 0.11% to 99.68. US asset manager PGIM holds a fringe view that the Fed will raise interest rates three times this year to cool an overheating economy, before reversing the hikes in 2027. The firm had forecast rate cuts this year as recently as April. PGIM stated the US economy is "exceptionally strong," and persistently sticky inflation requires a new approach. Given this backdrop, and with the Fed having missed its 2% target for five consecutive years, PGIM expects three rate hikes this year to bolster its credibility and anchor inflation expectations. "The rate hikes would be politically palatable for Warsh if they are characterized as 'preventive' measures to address supply-side inflation and the recent gyrations in long-term Treasuries," PGIM said. However, the firm noted it expects the Fed "to reverse these hikes relatively quickly, with three rate cuts in 2027 and one further cut in 2028, taking the terminal rate to 3.375%—below the current rate and likely close to the neutral rate." (Jin10 Data APP) Leslie Falconio, Head of Taxable Fixed Income Strategy at UBS Global Wealth Management, said the oil price pullback following the US-Iran agreement announcement saw the Treasury market strengthen, easing pressure on the Fed to hike rates this year. "Even before the ceasefire deal, as oil prices were coming down, the two-year yield was still rising because markets were pricing in a near-100% probability of a December hike," Falconio said. "Now what's happening is oil prices are falling and markets are unwinding those rate-hike expectations. As a result, the two-year yield is starting to decline." New Fed Chairman Warsh will preside over his first interest rate decision this week. After the recent surge in crude oil prices reignited inflationary pressures, voices within the FOMC supporting rate hikes this year have been growing. Falconio said she expects the FOMC to formally drop its easing bias at this week's meeting, making the policy outlook more hawkish. However, she still believes the Fed's next move will be a cut, occurring in 2027. (Jin10 Data APP) According to CME's "FedWatch": The probability of the Fed holding rates steady in June is 98.5%, with a 1.5% chance of cumulative 25bp of cuts. For July, the probability of holding rates unchanged is 91.3%, the probability of a cumulative 25bp hike is 7.4%, and the probability of cumulative 25bp of cuts is 1.4%. (Jin10 Data APP) Data Front: Data to be released today include China's May total retail sales YoY, China's May value-added of industrial output above designated size YoY, the US weekly change in ADP employment for the week ending May 30, US May annualized housing starts, US May building permits, US May import price index MoM, the Reserve Bank of Australia's interest rate decision as of June 16, Germany's June ZEW economic sentiment index, the Eurozone's June ZEW economic sentiment index, and the Bank of Japan's target rate as of June 16. Additionally, the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) will release the monthly report on residential selling prices in 70 large and medium-sized cities, and the State Council Information Office will hold a press conference on the national economic performance. The China Academy of Information and Communications Technology will convene a seminar to launch the High-Quality Token Service Capability Climbing Plan. The Reserve Bank of Australia will announce its interest rate decision, and RBA Governor Bullock will hold a monetary policy press conference. Bank of Japan Deputy Governor Shinichi Uchida will hold a monetary policy press conference, and the BOJ will announce its interest rate decision. Crude Oil: Overnight, both oil benchmarks fell, with WTI crude down 4.38% and Brent crude down 4.55%. The US and Iran simultaneously announced a ceasefire memorandum of understanding was reached, with Trump authorizing a "free and open" Strait of Hormuz and lifting the naval blockade. The formal signing ceremony is scheduled for June 19 in Switzerland. As the Trump administration nears completion of its plan to release 172 million barrels from the Strategic Petroleum Reserve (SPR) to ease the surge in fuel prices triggered by the Iran war, the US emergency crude oil supply has fallen to its lowest level since 1983. According to data released by the US Department of Energy (DOE) on June 15, the US SPR, established after the Arab oil embargo in the early 1970s, has dropped to a near-historic low of approximately 340 million barrels. (From Wallstreetcn APP) According to local news from Iran on the 16th, three oil tankers and two ships carrying essential Iranian goods have breached the US-imposed naval blockade. Separate reports indicated that multiple Iranian vessels successfully transited the blocked area. According to vessel-tracking data, an Iranian Very Large Crude Carrier was heading from international waters toward an Iranian port and had passed the blockade zone. A ship carrying livestock feed had also crossed the blockade and was en route to Iran. Additionally, another Iranian oil tanker fully loaded with crude has passed through the Gulf of Oman and the blockade line, heading to its export destination. (CCTV News) (Jin10 Data APP)

SMM June 15 News: Metal market: As of the midday close, domestic base metals moved higher across the board. SHFE copper rose 1.35%, SHFE tin rose 4.35%. SHFE nickel rose 1.27%, SHFE aluminum rose 0.31%, SHFE zinc rose 2.37%, SHFE lead rose 1.21%. Additionally, the most-traded cast aluminum futures contract rose 0.67%, while the most-traded alumina contract edged lower. The most-traded lithium carbonate contract fell 1.8%, the most-traded silicon metal contract rose 0.29%, and the most-traded polysilicon futures contract rose 0.67%. Ferrous metals rose broadly, with iron ore up 0.39%, rebar up 0.41%, hot-rolled coil up 0.5%, and stainless steel up 1.54%. Coking coal and coke: The most-traded coking coal contract fell 1.97%, and the most-traded coke contract rose 1.06%. Overseas base metals: As of 11:38, LME metals nearly all rose. LME copper rose 0.89%, LME aluminum fell 0.17%, LME lead rose 0.56%, LME zinc rose 0.85%, LME tin rose 2.35%, LME nickel rose 1.12%. Precious metals: As of 11:38, COMEX gold rose 2.47%, COMEX silver rose 3.52%. Domestic precious metals: The most-traded SHFE gold contract rose 4.58%, and the most-traded SHFE silver contract rose 7.93%. Furthermore, as of the midday close, the most-traded platinum futures contract rose 2.67%, and the most-traded palladium futures contract rose 2.36%. As of the midday close, the most-traded Europe route container shipping futures contract fell 3.44% to 3,773.5 points. As of 11:38 on June 15, some futures midday market quotes: Spot and Fundamentals Zinc: Today, mainstream transaction prices for #0 zinc were concentrated at 24,650-24,885 yuan/mt, Shuangyan mainstream transactions were at 24,740-24,945 yuan/mt, and #1 zinc mainstream transactions were at 24,580-24,815 yuan/mt. In early trading, market quotes against SMM’s average price were at premiums of 10-30 yuan/mt, with no quotes against the futures price yet... Macro Front Domestic: [NDRC and Other Departments: Launching a Three-Year Campaign for Key Industries’ Energy-Saving and Carbon-Reducing Transformation] The National Development and Reform Commission (NDRC) and other departments have decided to organize a three-year campaign for energy-saving and carbon-reducing transformation in key industries, including steel, aluminum, cement, flat glass, oil refining, ethylene, synthetic ammonia, methanol, and coal-fired power. It was mentioned that key industries have large-scale and high-intensity energy consumption and carbon dioxide emissions, making them the top priority for improving energy efficiency, reducing coal consumption, and lowering carbon emissions. Starting from 2026, nine key industries—steel, aluminum, cement, flat glass, oil refining, ethylene, synthetic ammonia, methanol, and coal-fired power—will be the focus of a three-year initiative to fully implement energy-saving and carbon-reduction retrofits. This aims to drive enterprises to elevate their energy and carbon efficiency levels as much as possible, leading to a marked improvement in the green and low-carbon development of these industries. Beginning in 2028, the scope of implementation will be further expanded based on practical circumstances, with additional industries advanced in a phased manner. All regions may proceed in an orderly fashion as needed, based on local conditions. [PBOC Reverse Repo Injects Net 206.5 Billion Yuan Today] The PBOC conducted a 425 billion yuan 7-day reverse repo operation in the open market at an interest rate of 1.40%, unchanged from the previous day. Today, 218.5 billion yuan in reverse repos matured. US Dollar: As of 11:38, the US dollar index fell 0.27% to 99.53. Easing tensions in the Middle East led the market to scale back bets on US Fed interest rate hikes. Interest rate swaps showed traders now see a roughly 60% probability of the Fed raising rates by 25 basis points before December, down from about 80% last Friday. (Jinshi Data APP) Additionally, according to the CME "FedWatch" tool: The probability of the Fed holding interest rates steady in June is 98.5%, with a 1.5% chance of a cumulative 25-basis-point cut. The probability of holding rates steady through July is 91.3%, with a 7.4% chance of a cumulative 25-basis-point hike and a 1.4% chance of a cumulative 25-basis-point cut. (Jinshi Data APP) On the data front: US consumer confidence rebounded for the first time in four months in early June, as lower gasoline prices offered some relief to Americans grappling with surging inflation. A survey released Friday showed the University of Michigan's preliminary consumer sentiment index for June rose to 48.9 from May's record low of 44.8. Economists had expected a modest recovery to 46. Consumers anticipated prices would rise 4.6% YoY over the next year, down from 4.8% in May. They also projected costs would climb at an average annual rate of 3.4% over the next five to ten years, also below the prior month's expected increase. Although gasoline prices remain higher than pre-Ukraine war levels, the decline in recent weeks has lessened pessimism about personal finances among Americans. The report showed a notable improvement in sentiment among lower-income consumers, who typically allocate a larger share of their budgets to fuel costs. Nevertheless, against the backdrop of the Iran war and the resulting wave of inflation, overall economic sentiment remains at historically depressed levels. Survey Director Joanne Hsu stated, "While there has been some relief, gasoline prices still have a significant impact on consumers. As a result, current price levels remain broadly unacceptable to consumers and have dampened their view of the economy." (Jin10 Data APP) Data: Today will see the release of Switzerland’s May Consumer Confidence Index, the Eurozone’s April seasonally adjusted trade balance, Eurozone April industrial production MoM, Canada April wholesale sales MoM, the US June Empire State manufacturing index, US May industrial production MoM, the US June NAHB Housing Market Index, and China’s May total electricity consumption YoY (to be determined), among other data. Attention should also be paid to: ECB President Lagarde’s speech; the National Energy Administration’s release of total electricity consumption data around the 15th of each month; and the opening of the G7 summit, which runs through June 17. Crude Oil: As of 11:38, oil prices on both sides of the Atlantic fell sharply, with WTI down 5.58% and Brent down 4.76%. A US-Iran peace agreement is expected to be signed soon, easing market concerns over crude supply and putting oil prices under pressure. According to Xinhua News Agency, US President Trump stated on social media on the 14th that with the signing of the US-Iran agreement on the 19th, the Strait of Hormuz will be reopened for mine-clearing operations. Iran’s Deputy Foreign Minister also indicated that an immediate and permanent halt to military operations on multiple fronts, including in Lebanon, will be announced starting tonight. Patrick DeHaan, head of petroleum analysis at GasBuddy, said the US nationwide average gasoline price fell below $4 per gallon on Sunday for the first time since April 20. He expects that in an optimistic scenario, the nationwide average price could fall below $3.75 per gallon before July 4, but the hurricane season could be a major variable in the latter half of the summer. " The coming weeks are critical—any major misstep could significantly impact the subsequent oil price trajectory." (Wall Street CN) Spot Market at a Glance: ► ► ► ► ► ► ► ► ► ► ► ►

Brussels is considering extending free ETS certificate allocations beyond the originally planned 2036 phase-out, which would continue to benefit blast furnace producers while leaving early adopters of cleaner electric arc furnace technology largely uncompensated, creating perverse incentives. The proposal has exposed a deep dilemma within Germany's IG Metall union, which represents workers at both blast furnace and EAF facilities with diametrically opposed interests; Saarland's union chapter vocally opposes ETS dilution while the national Berlin organization has remained silent on the issue. Meanwhile, WV Stahl is demanding permanent electricity price relief to EUR 50/MWh, with critics noting this would ultimately be funded by German taxpayers. In base metals, Asian and European markets posted broad gains on Friday, with zinc leading at over 2%.

SMM, June 15: Metal markets: Last Friday’s overnight session saw broad gains across base metals in and outside China, with only LME nickel edging down 0.03%. SHFE tin led the gains, rising 2.19%. LME copper, LME zinc, LME tin and SHFE zinc all gained over 1%: LME copper rose 1.02%, LME zinc rose 1.63%, LME tin rose 1.75% and SHFE zinc rose 1.48%, while the rest of the metals gained less than 1%. In addition, the alumina main contract rose 0.86% and the foundry aluminum main contract rose 0.45%. Last Friday’s overnight session for ferrous metals saw rises across the board except for iron ore, which fell 0.13%. Rebar rose 0.44% and HRC rose 0.59%. On the coking coal and coke front, coking coal rose 0.22% and coke rose 2.73%. Last Friday’s overnight session saw precious metals rebound collectively. COMEX gold rose 3.06% and COMEX silver rose 6.44%. However, due to notable earlier declines, COMEX gold still recorded a weekly loss of 2.87%, marking its second consecutive weekly drop. COMEX silver recorded a weekly loss of 1.42%, marking its fifth consecutive weekly drop. Domestically, SHFE gold rose 2.30% and SHFE silver rose 5.22%. SHFE gold posted a weekly loss of 6.79%, also marking its fifth consecutive weekly drop. SHFE silver plummeted 10.14% for the week, also marking a five-week losing streak. Bank of China issued an announcement, stating that global geopolitics and the US Fed's monetary policy are currently subject to considerable uncertainty. Under the influence of multiple factors, price fluctuations of precious metals in and outside China have further intensified. To protect the interests of clients involved in precious metals-related businesses—such as accumulated gold, accumulated interest gold, account precious metals, two-way account precious metals, and agency services for individual Shanghai Gold Exchange operations—the bank specifically reminds you to guard against market risks, engage in rational investment based on your own financial situation and risk tolerance, reasonably control your precious metals positions, mitigate the impact of short-term price fluctuations through long-term investment, and prevent the risk of capital losses caused by market volatility. As of 8:31 a.m. on June 13, the closing prices from last Friday’s overnight session are as follows: Macro front Domestic front: [PBoC: In the first five months, aggregate social financing rose by 1.748 trillion yuan; new loans stood at 911 billion yuan; May M2 increased 8.6% YoY] PBoC’s preliminary statistics show that the cumulative increase in the aggregate social financing scale for the first five months of 2026 was 17.48 trillion yuan, 1.16 trillion yuan less than the same period last year. Specifically, RMB loans extended to the real economy rose by 9 trillion yuan, a YoY decline of 1.38 trillion yuan; foreign currency loans extended to the real economy, converted into RMB, rose by 115.3 billion yuan, a YoY increase of 211.6 billion yuan; entrusted loans decreased by 103.1 billion yuan, a YoY increase in decline of 91.8 billion yuan; trust loans rose by 5.7 billion yuan, a YoY decline in growth of 57 billion yuan; undiscounted bankers’ acceptances decreased by 17.2 billion yuan, a YoY increase in decline of 151.4 billion yuan; net financing from corporate bonds was 1.67 trillion yuan, a YoY increase of 757.7 billion yuan; net financing from government bonds was 5.67 trillion yuan, a YoY decrease of 634 billion yuan; and domestic stock financing by non-financial enterprises was 230.5 billion yuan, a YoY increase of 79.9 billion yuan. In the first five months, RMB loans increased by 9.11 trillion yuan. By sector, household loans decreased by 631.4 billion yuan, of which short-term loans fell by 694.2 billion yuan and medium and long-term loans rose by 62.8 billion yuan; loans to enterprises and public institutions grew by 9.63 trillion yuan, with short-term loans up 3.77 trillion yuan, medium and long-term loans up 4.99 trillion yuan, and bill financing up 699.9 billion yuan; loans to non-bank financial institutions decreased by 279.7 billion yuan. PBOC data showed that at end-May, broad money (M2) stood at 353.67 trillion yuan, up 8.6% YoY. Narrow money (M1) totaled 114.89 trillion yuan, up 5.5% YoY. Currency in circulation (M0) reached 14.69 trillion yuan, up 11.9% YoY. Net cash injection in the first five months was 590.7 billion yuan. According to the PBOC website, to maintain ample banking system liquidity, on June 15, 2026, the People’s Bank of China will conduct a 600 billion yuan outright reverse repo operation through fixed-quantity, rate-based tender and multiple-price bidding, with a tenor of 6 months (183 days), maturing on December 15, 2026. US dollar: As of the overnight close last Friday, the US dollar index edged up 0.1% to 99.79, posting a weekly decline of 0.28%, with markets closely watching US-Iran peace talks. Multiple US media reported on the 12th that a senior US administration official said that day the US side is “80% to 85%” confident of signing a memorandum of understanding (MoU) with Iran within the coming days. The official also expressed confidence that Israel would support this US-Iran MoU. According to CNN, CBS and others, the official said on a press conference call, “We are not yet fully at the finish line, but we are very close.” The official noted that the specific venue and date for signing the MoU have not been determined, but US President Trump previously suggested signing it in a European country, which could be an option. (Xinhua) Iranian media reported on the 12th that Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi stated that once the final stage of negotiations between Iran and the US is completed, the MoU will be signed and announced immediately. The first stage will be signed electronically remotely, “possibly within the next few days.” (Xinhua) HSBC analysts noted in a report that the US dollar exchange rate is currently below levels implied by market expectations for US interest rates. They said the dollar’s reaction has been relatively limited as market expectations recently shifted from anticipated rate cuts to potential rate hikes. They believe this may reflect loose financial conditions in the US and hopes for a resolution to the Middle East conflict. They stated that the dollar requires clear stimulus from monetary policy. If the US Fed fails to support rate hike expectations at this week's meeting, the dollar "could be in trouble." (Jin10 Data App) Traders expect the Fed to keep rates unchanged at 3.5%–3.75%, but see a more than 50% probability of a hike before year-end. Market pricing dialed back slightly after Thursday’s comments from Trump on a potential deal. In other currencies: ING analyst Chris Turner noted that for the EUR/USD exchange rate, the Fed’s upcoming policy meeting may matter more than the ECB’s Thursday rate hike decision. The ECB has signaled further tightening, with markets speculating about another hike in July. However, he stated that because the market has already priced in an aggressive ECB tightening cycle and is reluctant to push that expectation higher, EUR/USD remains below 1.16. Moreover, markets see a possible Fed hike later this year. He indicated that unless the Fed pushes back against this expectation at its Wednesday meeting, the dollar should stay firm. (Jin10 Data App) On the data front: This week, from China, the data to be released include China’s May total retail sales of consumer goods YoY, May industrial value-added above designated size YoY, May share of Swift RMB in global payments, May total electricity consumption YoY (TBD), and May total electricity consumption (TBD). From the US, releases will include the US Fed interest rate decision (upper bound) as of June 17, June NY Empire State manufacturing index, May industrial production MoM, June NAHB housing market index, weekly change in ADP employment as of May 30, May housing starts annualized, May building permits total, May import price index MoM, May retail sales MoM, April business inventories MoM, May pending home sales index MoM, initial jobless claims for the week ending June 13, June Philadelphia Fed manufacturing index, and May Conference Board leading index MoM. From the UK, releases will include May CPI MoM, May retail price index MoM, April three-month ILO unemployment rate, May unemployment rate, May claimant count change, Bank of England rate decision as of June 18, June GfK consumer confidence index, and May seasonally adjusted retail sales MoM. From the eurozone, releases will include April seasonally adjusted trade balance, April industrial production MoM, June ZEW economic sentiment index, May final CPI YoY, May final CPI MoM, and April seasonally adjusted current account. From Switzerland, releases will include the May consumer confidence index, May trade balance, and Swiss National Bank policy rate as of June 18. From Japan, releases will include the Bank of Japan target rate as of June 16 and May core CPI YoY. From Canada, releases will include April wholesale sales MoM and April retail sales MoM. Germany’s June ZEW economic sentiment index, Germany’s May PPI MoM, and the Reserve Bank of Australia rate decision as of June 16 will also be published. Additionally, on June 15, China will see the maturity of 218.5 billion yuan in 7-day reverse repos and 600 billion yuan in six-month outright reverse repos, the National Energy Administration is set to release data on nationwide electricity consumption around the 15th of each month, the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) will publish the monthly report on residential selling prices in 70 large and medium-sized cities, and the State Council Information Office will hold a press conference on economic performance. The China Academy of Information and Communications Technology (CAICT) will convene a seminar to launch the High-Quality Token Service Capability Climbing Plan (tentative), and China's refined oil products will enter a new pricing window. On June 18, the US Fed's FOMC will release its interest rate decision and summary of economic projections, and Fed Chairman Warsh will hold a monetary policy press conference. ECB President Lagarde will deliver a speech. BOJ Deputy Governor Uchida Shinichi will hold a monetary policy press conference, and the BOJ will announce its interest rate decision. RBA Governor Block will hold a monetary policy press conference. The Swiss National Bank will announce its interest rate decision, and the Bank of England will announce its interest rate decision and minutes. The G7 Summit will open, running until June 17. In the Crude Oil Market: Last Friday, oil prices fell overnight in both markets, with US crude dropping 3.9% and Brent crude dropping 3.96%. Expectations for a US-Iran peace agreement continued to rise, putting oil prices under pressure and pulling them back. On a weekly basis, oil prices also declined, with US crude down 6.9% and Brent crude down 6.76%. In early trading in the US stock market, according to CCTV, Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi said the Islamabad memorandum of understanding has never been this close to being reached, causing oil prices to plunge and US stock indices to extend intraday gains. Iranian Foreign Ministry Spokesperson Baghaei stated that the two sides have now reached an understanding on most issues, and Iran is in the final stages of consolidating the MOU text. At midday in the US stock market, CCTV reported that Pakistani Prime Minister Sharif Shehbaz said the final agreed peace agreement text has been completed, and the two countries are moving forward to implement the next steps. Oil prices continued to decline. During the session, US stocks briefly fell after Trump criticized Iran for leaking agreement terms, but then Wall Street News mentioned that the UAE has agreed to unlock large-scale funds to Iran, with the first tranche of about $3 billion already transferred, further boosting optimism about reaching an agreement. (Wall Street News) US Energy Secretary Wright stated that currently about 7 million barrels of oil and fuel pass through the Strait of Hormuz each day, a volume that accounts for about half of the stranded cargo when the Iran conflict first erupted. Wright said that no Iranian crude can currently be shipped through the Strait of Hormuz. He added that if an agreement is reached, he expects all products will be able to pass freely through the Persian Gulf. Wright also noted that if no agreement is reached, the US military will resume transportation along the route. Wright stated that the US will not impose an oil export ban to curb oil prices. (Jinshi Data APP) US Energy Secretary Wright stated on Friday local time that US refiners can still absorb more Venezuelan crude oil. Wright said that Venezuela currently sends about half of its total exports of 1.2 million barrels per day to the US, and this proportion could rise in the coming months. Wright also said that Iran is currently not exporting any oil or refined products. During the Middle East conflict, the US has actively filled the gap in oil exports. (Jinshi Data APP) Triggered by the most severe supply disruption on record from the Iran conflict, US emergency stockpile crude exports have surged to an all-time high. Customs data compiled by Kpler Ltd. show that nearly 22 million barrels of crude from the US Strategic Petroleum Reserve (SPR) have been sold to overseas markets so far this year. This volume has already surpassed the previous record set four years ago. Although exports of crude from the US emergency stockpile are not uncommon, the scale of shipments this year shows that, as the near-closure of the Strait of Hormuz triggers supply disruptions, global markets are increasingly relying on US supplies to weather the crisis. For every three barrels of crude released from the emergency stockpile, roughly one barrel is exported. The volume headed overseas could be even higher, as the Trump administration continues to release the full promised 172 million barrels of crude. This is part of a larger effort by the International Energy Agency (IEA) to help buffer the impact of the Iran war on global energy markets. (Wallstreetcn)

SMM June 12 News: Metals market: As of the midday close, domestic base metals nearly all rose. SHFE copper rose 1.51%, SHFE tin rose 2.97%. SHFE nickel rose 0.94%. SHFE aluminum rose 1.06%. SHFE zinc rose 0.43%. SHFE lead fell 0.31%. In addition, casting aluminum linked futures rose 0.45%, alumina most-traded linked futures rose 1.45%. Lithium carbonate most-traded linked futures rose 3.85%. Silicon metal most-traded linked futures rose 0.63%. Polysilicon linked futures rose 5.91%. Ferrous metals all rose, iron ore rose 0.13%, rebar rose 0.66%, hot-rolled coil rose 0.74%, stainless steel rose 2.15%. Coking coal and coke: coking coal most-traded contract rose 3.02%, coke most-traded contract rose 5.63%. Overseas base metals: as of 11:38 AM, LME metals all rose. LME copper rose 1.01%, LME aluminum rose 0.54%, LME lead edged up. LME zinc rose 0.26%, LME tin rose 0.25%, LME nickel rose 0.67%. Precious metals: as of 11:38 AM, COMEX gold rose 2.63%, COMEX silver rose 5.36%. Domestic precious metals: SHFE gold most-traded linked futures rose 1.89%, SHFE silver most-traded linked futures rose 4.36%. Furthermore, as of the midday close, platinum most-traded linked futures rose 3.99%, palladium most-traded linked futures rose 5.69%. As of the midday close, the most-traded Europe container shipping futures contract fell 1.16% to 3,929.5 points. As of 11:38 AM on June 12, some futures midday quotes: Spot and fundamentals Copper: Today, Guangdong #1 copper cathode spot against the front-month contract: high-quality copper reported at 270 yuan/mt up 30 yuan/mt from the previous trading day, standard-quality copper reported at a premium of 210 yuan/mt up 30 yuan/mt, SX-EW copper reported at a premium of 150 yuan/mt up 30 yuan/mt. The average price of Guangdong #1 copper cathode was 104,715 yuan/mt up 1,090 yuan/mt from the previous trading day, and the average price of SX-EW copper was 104,625 yuan/mt up 1,075 yuan/mt. Spot market: Guangdong inventory has declined for 9 consecutive days and has now hit a new low for the year... Macro front China: [PBOC's open market operations net injected 178 billion yuan on the day, and net injected 885.8 billion yuan this week] PBOC conducted 393 billion yuan of 7-day reverse repo operations today, with 215 billion yuan of 7-day reverse repos maturing, resulting in a net injection of 178 billion yuan on the day. This week, PBOC conducted 1,112 billion yuan of 7-day reverse repo operations, with 226.2 billion yuan of 7-day reverse repos maturing, realizing a net injection of 885.8 billion yuan this week. (Jinshi Data APP) [Guangzhou: Fully Advance the Implementation of Major Projects Such as Intelligent Connected Vehicles and NEVs, Artificial Intelligence, Semiconductors and Integrated Circuits, and Low-Altitude Economy] The “Guangzhou Commerce Development 15th Five-Year Plan (Draft for Public Comments)” was released for public consultation. It highlighted the need to fully advance the implementation of major projects including intelligent connected vehicles and NEVs, ultra-high-definition video and new-type displays, green petrochemicals and new materials, intelligent equipment and robotics, artificial intelligence, semiconductors and integrated circuits, and low-altitude economy, and cultivate a group of leading intermediate product enterprises that are high-tech, manufacturing single champions, and specialized and sophisticated. Promote the accelerated development of intermediate product trade in foreign trade transformation and upgrading bases, and cultivate a number of well-known brands and “chain leader” enterprises. Support enterprises in using technologies such as the industrial internet, big data, and artificial intelligence for digital transformation, improving production efficiency and product quality, and driving the intermediate product trade to leap toward high-end and digital-intelligent development. (Jinshi Data APP) On the US dollar front: As of 11:38, the US dollar index rose 0.06% to 99.75. According to CME “FedWatch”: The probability that the US Fed will keep interest rates unchanged through June is 98.5%, and the probability of a cumulative 25bp rate cut is 1.5%. The probability that the US Fed will keep interest rates unchanged through July is 91.3%, the probability of a cumulative 25bp rate hike is 7.4%, and the probability of a cumulative 25bp rate cut is 1.4%. Market expectations for a US Fed rate hike have been pushed back from December this year to January next year, and the possibility of a rate hike this year is no longer fully priced in. (Jinshi Data APP) Amid sustained inflationary pressure driven by the Iran war, US producer prices in May rose at the fastest pace in more than three years. Data released by the Bureau of Labor Statistics on Thursday showed that the US PPI rose 6.5% YoY in May, the largest increase since November 2022, and rose 1.1% MoM. The core PPI, excluding food and energy, rose 4.9% YoY. The report highlighted the growing damage to the US economy from the energy price shock caused by the closure of the Strait of Hormuz. As the conflict is unlikely to be resolved in the short term, businesses are passing on higher energy and transportation costs, and other goods and services are also becoming more expensive. Combined with data earlier this week showing that consumer prices in May rose at the fastest pace in three years, Thursday's PPI report may further strengthen market expectations for a US Fed rate hike in 2026. As the labour market appears to be regaining growth momentum, the US Fed is shifting its focus to curbing inflation. On the data front: Today will see the release of Germany May CPI MoM Final, UK April Three-Month GDP MoM, UK April Manufacturing Production MoM, UK April Seasonally Adjusted Goods Trade Balance, UK April Industrial Production MoM, France May CPI MoM Final, US June 1-Year Inflation Expectations Prelim, and US June University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index Prelim. In addition, watch for: the Huawei Developer Conference on June 12-14; Elon Musk’s commercial space company SpaceX plans to list on the Nasdaq on June 12, 2026. Crude oil: As of 11:38, oil prices in both benchmarks fell, with WTI crude down 1.12% and Brent crude down 1.15%. The US and Iran may reach a preliminary agreement on a memorandum of understanding, causing oil prices to pull back slightly. According to CCTV, on June 11 local time, US President Trump posted on the social media platform “Truth Social” that, given that consultations with Iran had been submitted to the highest leadership of Iran and approved, he had canceled the strike and bombing operation originally planned for that night against Iran. According to the latest OPEC data, Iran’s crude oil production fell 19% last month, as the US blocked the country’s ports amid the ongoing conflict. Data from the monthly report released on Thursday showed that Iran’s daily output dropped by 546,000 barrels to 2.33 million barrels per day. Meanwhile, OPEC’s latest monthly report showed that the organization on Thursday lowered its 2026 global oil demand growth forecast to 970,000 barrels per day, marking its second consecutive downward revision. Since the outbreak of the Iran war, the producer group has believed that the conflict’s impact on consumption has been consistently smaller than that estimated by other forecasters such as the US Energy Information Administration and the International Energy Agency, both of which expect demand to decline in 2026. In addition, the report noted that the oil producer group raised its forecast for oil demand growth in 2027. (Jinshi Data APP) Spot Market at a Glance: ► ► ► ► ► ► ► ► ► ► ► ► ► ►