According to the latest customs data, in January 2026, China’s imports of copper-zinc alloy (brass) bars and rods were 2,050.01 mt in physical content, down 8.37% MoM and up 24.53% YoY. In February, China’s imports of copper-zinc alloy (brass) bars and rods were 1,344.87 mt in physical content, down 34.4% MoM and down 36.67% YoY, showing an overall sharp decline. Cumulative imports in January-February 2026 were 3,394.87, down 9.94% YoY cumulatively. (HS codes 74072111, 74072119, 74072190).

On Tuesday, Eastern Time, Chicago Fed President Goolsbee warned that the energy shock stemming from the Middle East conflict is threatening the US Fed’s dual mandate, complicating its monetary policy outlook and potentially delaying interest rate cuts—echoing earlier remarks by Fed Governor Barr that inflation risks and oil prices support keeping rates unchanged for longer. Specifically, the energy price shock poses risks to both sides of the US Fed’s dual mandate, making the trade-off between controlling inflation and supporting economic growth more complex. “The new shock has undoubtedly disrupted the US Fed’s plans... and inflation was already uncomfortably high even before the shock occurred,” Goolsbee said bluntly. Goolsbee noted that central bank policymakers around the world lack clear historical experience to draw on in dealing with the current mix of geopolitical risks and inflationary pressures, and therefore “this is a bad situation for central banks.” Goolsbee stressed that the current path of interest rates at central banks around the world still depends heavily on how the conflict evolves, especially its impact on energy markets. As for the US Fed, he said he is not yet able to judge whether it will be able to cut interest rates again, because that outlook depends on the duration of the conflict and the extent to which rising oil prices affect overall inflation. “Only if inflation shows improvement can one realistically expect rates to fall this year,” he added, further reinforcing the US Fed’s data-dependent stance. The US Fed’s Internal Stance Is Turning More Cautious These remarks by Goolsbee were highly consistent with earlier comments by Fed Governor Michael Barr. Barr had previously also emphasized that, given that US inflation remains above target and elevated oil prices are further pushing up inflation, interest rates may need to remain unchanged “for some time.” In addition, Barr likewise pointed out that although the US labour market appears to be stabilizing, US Fed officials need to see clear evidence of sustained disinflation before considering interest rate cuts. Taken together, these comments highlight the US Fed’s increasingly cautious shift in stance. As geopolitical developments exert a growing influence on the US inflation outlook, the combination of persistent price pressures and external shocks has reinforced expectations that high inflation will last longer, while also creating uncertainty over the feasibility of further policy easing in the near term. For markets, the key point is that after the Russia-Ukraine shock several years ago, energy-driven inflation risks have now been firmly incorporated into the US Fed’s reaction function. As a result, US Fed rate expectations may remain sensitive not only to economic data, but also to developments in the Middle East conflict and their impact on oil prices.

【SMM Steel】GMH Gruppe commissioned its second inductive single-rod tempering system (EVA 2) at its Georgsmarienhütte plant, completing a €21.5m investment. The new line doubles electric heat treatment capacity to 35,000 t/y, processing 35-100 mm bars for wind turbines and auto parts. Using renewable electricity instead of gas will cut CO₂ by over 50,000 t in a decade. The project supports its 2039 climate-neutral goal and received €2.2m in German federal funding.

[SMM Flash News] The 2026 Chinese New Year holiday fell in February, significantly shortening effective production time, which was one of the reasons for the sharp decline in brass billet imports in February. In addition, persistently high raw material costs clearly suppressed import demand. In terms of operating conditions, the pace of work resumption in the brass billet industry after Chinese New Year was also noticeably slower than in previous years.

[SMM Brass Bar Flash] Affected by the sharp correction in copper prices, some terminal clients saw intensified wait-and-see sentiment, and the pace of order placement slowed somewhat, causing certain disruptions to new orders for brass billet. Overall, however, most large and medium-sized enterprises currently had sufficient orders on hand and were stepping up production to rush deliveries, driving the operating rate of the brass billet industry up 2.18 percentage points WoW to 54.13% this week (3.13-3.19).

[SMM Brass Bar Bulletin] According to SMM, affected by price fluctuations, copper billet enterprises mostly adopted a strategy of restocking when prices were low on the raw material side to control procurement costs; downstream enterprises maintained a procurement pace of purchasing as needed, with relatively cautious sentiment toward picking up goods. As a major brass billet production hub in China, Ningbo saw enterprise production and shipment pace remain stable, with a moderate overall market trading atmosphere, though wait-and-see sentiment increased.