[SMM Cast Aluminum Alloy Morning Comment: May Auto Market Domestic Demand Under Pressure, Exports Strong; Narrowing Price Difference Between A00 Aluminum and Scrap Tightens Raw Material Supply] The ADC12 market traded steadily on Wednesday, with the SMM ADC12 price remaining flat at 23,900 yuan/mt. This week, cast aluminum alloy futures diverged from SHFE aluminum, with cast aluminum futures steady to firm while SHFE aluminum fell below the 24,000 yuan/mt mark. In the spot market, A00 aluminum prices declined for consecutive sessions, but ADC12 prices remained firm. The spread between the two has returned to positive territory, ending the inversion since April, underscoring the resilience of alloy prices.

According to SMM data, the operating rate of die-casting zinc alloy in May was 40.64%, down 1.58 percentage points month-on-month and 6.46 percentage points year-on-year.

【SMM News】 In May, China's automobile production and sales reached 2.616 million and 2.629 million units respectively, showing month-on-month growth but a slight year-on-year decline, with the decline narrowing further. Overall, in the first five months, total automobile production and sales reached 12.235 million and 12.207 million units respectively. Among these, the production and sales of new energy vehicles (NEVs) reached 5.841 million and 5.802 million units, representing year-on-year growth of 2.5% and 3.5% respectively.

According to SMM data, prices of zinc, aluminum, and copper rose overall starting from the end of last year, and die-casting zinc alloy enterprises continued to face cost pressure. Meanwhile, since March this year, aluminum prices surpassed zinc prices, with the price center steadily running above 23,400 yuan/mt with fluctuations, while copper prices operated above 100,000 yuan/mt for most of the time since entering 2026, intensifying the operational pressure on die-casting zinc alloy producers.

[SMM Analysis]Secondary Aluminum Operating Rate Declined in April, with Downward Pressure Persisting in May

Data released by CAAM showed that in March, China's automobile production and sales reached 2.917 million units and 2.899 million units, down 3% and 0.6% YoY, respectively. Among them, new energy vehicle production and sales reached 1.231 million units and 1.252 million units, down 3.6% and up 1.2% YoY, respectively, while exports were up 1.3 times YoY.