From June 4 to 5, Huatai Securities' 2025 Mid-Year Investment Summit was held in Shanghai. Themed "Seeking Certainty Amidst Order Reconstruction," the summit delved into the new logic of global order reconstruction and the revaluation of Chinese assets. The two-day event comprised a main forum and 11 industry sub-forums, focusing on growth opportunities in sectors such as New Consumption 2, AI+, humanoid robots, and energy transition. Nearly 500 publicly listed firms were invited to participate in closed-door exchanges, attracting over 2,500 professional investors and institutional clients from public funds, private funds, banks, insurance companies, and publicly listed firms to register for the event. Notably, the summit featured a special "China + Southeast Asia" sub-forum, exploring industrial breakthrough strategies and capital empowerment pathways amidst the reconstruction of trade order from an international perspective. Experts such as Liu Yuanchun, President of Shanghai University of Finance and Economics, former Vice President of Renmin University of China, and co-founder of the China Macroeconomic Forum (CMF); Wu Xinbo, Dean of the Institute of International Studies at Fudan University, Director of the Fudan University US Research Center (a key humanities and social sciences research base under the Ministry of Education), and member of the Foreign Ministry's Foreign Policy Advisory Committee; Wei Shaojun, Professor at Tsinghua University, member of the National Advisory Committee for the Development of the Integrated Circuit Industry, Vice Chairman of the China Semiconductor Industry Association, and Chairman of the China JSTC of the World Semiconductor Council; and Siregar, Chief Economist of Indonesia's sovereign wealth fund Danantara, delivered keynote speeches on hot topics such as AI technological development, new logic in China's economy, and new policy approaches. Exploring Certainty Opportunities Amidst Order Reconstruction in the Macro Context In her opening remarks, Liang Hong, Chair of Huatai Securities' Institutional Business Committee, stated that in the face of prolonged trade conflicts, investors are eager to see how China will formulate new economic development strategies, promote broader and deeper economic reforms, and thereby increase residents' incomes and consumption willingness, as part of their expectations for the "15th Five-Year Plan." Liang Hong suggested that investors should adopt a longer-term perspective to explore certainty opportunities amidst order reconstruction within macro contexts such as global order reconstruction, supply chain reorganization, and new directions in capital flows. This also represents the core logic for global investors to reevaluate the value of the RMB and RMB-denominated assets, particularly in China's competitive industries and high-quality enterprises. The Huatai Research Macro Team conducted a roundtable discussion on current macroeconomic and market concerns. Maintaining the Forecast of 5% Real GDP Growth in 2025 Amidst external disruptions, Huatai Securities' Macro Team maintains its forecast of 5% real GDP growth for this year. What policy and external environment assumptions underpin this forecast?What is the logical basis for the expectation of RMB appreciation? Yi Huan, Chief Macroeconomist at Huatai Securities, stated that since April, the US tariff policy has been full of twists and turns, with uncertainties still remaining. However, on the whole, the impact of tariffs is relatively small compared to expectations at the end of last year. Domestically, China's macro policies have shown notable highlights. The growth in fiscal expenditure for the entire year is expected to exceed the nominal GDP growth rate, surpassing market expectations. The accelerated development of the technology cycle, with new quality productive forces such as AI+ emerging as new highlights, has also alleviated the drag on the economy from the downturn in the real estate sector. In addition, the depreciation of the US dollar has provided a boost to the development of emerging economies. From the perspectives of economic fundamentals and the repatriation of de-dollarization funds, the RMB has the momentum for appreciation, while the RMB's movement against a basket of currencies has remained basically stable. Under the trend of de-dollarization, RMB assets and the offshore RMB capital market will face structural opportunities for revaluation and expansion. Asset allocation should abandon bear market thinking and emphasize trading and left-side positioning. What are the key points for asset allocation in the second half of this year? The bond market is expected to maintain a fluctuating trend. What are the operational suggestions? Zhang Jiqiang, Director of Huatai Securities Research Institute and Chief Fixed Income Analyst, stated that this year is a significant year for the macro cycle, with event-driven market trends being prominent and investors' allocations becoming more diversified and decentralized. In terms of asset allocation, investors should abandon bear market thinking, emphasize trading and left-side positioning, and focus on investment odds. In bond investment, the core contradiction in the bond market in the second half of the year is the "lack of certainty" amidst multiple intersecting variables. It is highly likely to continue exhibiting characteristics of a fluctuating market, with many disturbances and difficulties in judging the rhythm. The 10-year Treasury bond rate is expected to fluctuate between 1.5% and 1.8%. Strategically, it is necessary to emphasize swing trading, duration adjustment, and selection of bond types. The US stock market may face a concurrent downturn in three cycles. Lin Xiaoming, Chief Financial Engineering Analyst at Huatai Securities Research Institute, conducted research and judgment on asset allocation and the style of the A-share market in the second half of the year from the perspective of quantitative models. Lin Xiaoming pointed out that in the second half of the year, the global Kitchin cycle will enter a downturn phase, and the US stock market may face a concurrent downturn in the Kitchin, Juglar, and Kondratieff cycles. Against this backdrop, how to seek safe-haven assets amidst a liquidity crisis has become the key to asset allocation in the second half of the year. Unlike previous cycle downturns where safe-haven assets performed well, in this cycle downturn, it is possible that shorts in risky assets will outperform longs in safe-haven assets. Due to the constraints of US fiscal issues on US Treasuries, they may not be ideal safe-haven assets during this downturn period. Against the backdrop of increasingly unclear global trade and fiscal prospects, the long-term allocation value of gold will become more prominent. In the equity market, A-shares are likely to outperform overseas markets. It is recommended to adopt a barbell allocation strategy combining dividends and growth, and to pay attention to policy negotiation opportunities in the consumer sector. The revaluation process of Chinese assets has just begun. From a strategic perspective, given the expectation of RMB appreciation and the global de-dollarization process, will the pricing logic of A-shares change? What investment themes are worth paying attention to in H2? He Kang, Chief Strategist and Co-Head of Financial Engineering at Huatai Securities Research Institute, stated that in the long run, the revaluation process of Chinese assets has just started. Against the backdrop of RMB appreciation and global de-dollarization, the expectation of foreign capital inflows has strengthened, and their preferences may dominate the pricing power of A-shares. Index-weighted stocks and companies with excellent fundamentals are likely to benefit, corresponding to the finance, consumer, pharmaceutical sectors, and industry leaders. He Kang believes that multiple investment themes in the A-share market in H2 can be summarized as follows: After the trough of the real estate cycle, overlooked consumer demand and overlooked productivity improvements, especially capital expenditures in the high-tech sector, may gradually surface. H-shares show greater resilience amid the revaluation of RMB assets. This year, several top-tier enterprises have completed their H-share listings, injecting new vitality into the H-share market. Li Yujie, a strategy researcher at Huatai Securities, believes that factors such as Chinese enterprises going global, global reallocation driven by de-dollarization, and the internationalization of the RMB are highlighting the importance of the H-share market. In the medium and long-term, the expansion of the H-share market implies a need for increased capital allocation. It is recommended to pay attention to two trend changes: First, the technology sector corresponding to improved growth prospects. Global capital is more overweight in US technology stocks but remains underweight in Chinese ones. Second, with improved liquidity, the AH premium is expected to narrow. Scarcity plays in industry leaders, large-cap stocks, and active stocks under the Stock Connect scheme are worth noting. In the short term, external market disturbances may affect the performance of H-shares, but there are differences between Hong Kong and the US in terms of economic cycles and market positions. Moreover, H-shares show greater resilience amid the revaluation of RMB assets. The main driver of H-share performance in H2 may come from a "U"-shaped recovery in earnings.

The latest strategic viewpoints from the top ten securities firms have just been released, as detailed below: Soochow Securities: June may mark the starting point of a new round of "East Rising, West Declining" trades The US dollar cycle is pivotal to the "East Rising, West Declining" trade. Historical experience shows that during periods of global liquidity easing and a weakening US dollar, non-US assets tend to strengthen, and the Chinese market will also benefit. Looking ahead, a weak US dollar remains the baseline assumption. Due to multiple factors such as ongoing disruptions from Trump's policies, the US government's debt pressure, and potential risks in the fundamentals, the US dollar is expected to trend weaker. Since the US dollar index turned down again in mid-May, it has once again fallen below the 100 mark. It is judged that the US dollar will continue to decline in June, possibly breaking below the previous low. The liquidity spillover driven by a weak US dollar will lead the A-share market to embark on a new round of "East Rising, West Declining" trades. In recent years, the value/growth style of the A-share market has been increasingly influenced by the US dollar cycle, specifically showing that growth stocks tend to outperform during periods of a weak US dollar. As June approaches, the technology sector will witness a series of catalytic events, and its prospects are expected to remain robust. Meanwhile, the valuations and liquidity of growth stocks will also benefit from a weak US dollar environment, potentially exhibiting better resilience. In terms of specific allocation directions, the main themes and industrial trends to focus on include: AI edge devices (including AI phones, AI glasses), AI large models, humanoid robots, controllable nuclear fusion, deep-sea technology, and autonomous driving. Zhongtai Securities: Maintaining the "switch from high to low" viewpoint at the current juncture The current market is at a critical period marked by the interplay of domestic and foreign policy variables. Domestically, the "15th Five-Year Plan" sets the tone, and reforms in public funds may reshape the market. Externally, intensifying tariff disputes between Europe and the US, as well as increased policy uncertainty within the US, will all have complex impacts on the market. At the current juncture, the "switch from high to low" viewpoint is still maintained, with a relatively optimistic stance on the technology sector. The overall market is expected to continue rotating rapidly among various hot topics in Q2. Investors should avoid chasing highs and instead focus on bottom-fishing opportunities, with this allocation logic remaining unchanged. 1) While maintaining a base portfolio of stable assets such as dividend stocks, gold, long-term bonds, and blue chips, focus on opportunities to bottom-fish in safety-related assets and technology stocks; 2) The high growth momentum in upstream AI computing power, servers, etc., as seen from Q1 earnings reports, is expected to continue into H2. Moreover, the update of the new version of DeepSeek may trigger investors' risk appetite for the technology sector; 3) The Trump administration has recently intensified technology restrictions on industries such as chips, coupled with China's increased emphasis on technology at the policy level. Among these, the direction of domestic substitution, represented by semiconductors, will also present certain opportunities. Overall, in Q2, the fundamentals of core city real estate and other endogenous momentum are gradually showing a "turning point," but total data may remain resilient under the "rush to switch exports." Current overall policies still maintain strong determination, but there is a high level of attention on the capital market, which may provide some support to the market. Hua Jin Securities: June Continues to Fluctuate Upward with Technology and Consumption Remaining the Main Themes In June, A-shares may continue to fluctuate upward. (1) Policies in June may be more proactive, with some uncertainty regarding external events. First, positive policies in June may accelerate implementation. Second, external events such as Sino-US tariff negotiations in June face some uncertainty. (2) The fundamentals in June may continue to improve. First, economic data in June may continue to show strength: firstly, the Dragon Boat Festival holiday and the "618" shopping season may keep consumption growth at a high level; secondly, overseas restocking may lead to a rebound in export growth in June; finally, accelerated policy implementation may maintain high growth in manufacturing and infrastructure investment in June, although real estate investment growth remains weak. Second, profit growth in June may continue to be in a recovery cycle. (3) Liquidity in June may remain loose. First, repeated expectations of interest rate cuts overseas have limited impact on domestic easing. Second, the inflow of funds into the stock market in June may improve; historically, foreign and margin financing flows tend to increase in June; after the holiday, margin financing and foreign capital may also return. Technology and consumption remain the main themes, with some core assets and cyclical sectors possibly offering investment opportunities. First, new consumption is likely to generate excess returns in June; second, policy encouragement points to TMT and consumption, with high-growth industries mainly concentrated in non-ferrous metals, TMT, and machinery. It is recommended to continue to allocate on dips: first, sectors with upward policy and industry trends such as computer (domestic software, autonomous driving), robotics, military, media (AI applications, gaming), electronics (semiconductors), and communications (computing power); second, sectors where fundamental expectations may marginally improve, including innovative drugs, electric vehicles, food, social services, trade retail, non-ferrous metals, and chemicals. China Galaxy: Technology Will Remain the Medium and Long-Term Investment Theme Recently, the sector rotation speed has increased, and the market's volatile pattern has not changed, with no significant increase in trading volume, still dominated by existing players. There is considerable uncertainty in the external market. On May 29, the US Federal Circuit Court of Appeals granted the Trump administration's request to temporarily suspend the previous ruling by the US International Trade Court. Although a phased tariff agreement between China and the US has been reached, temporarily alleviating trade pressure, the Trump administration's policies remain unpredictable. In the short term, the market may continue to maintain a fluctuating trend. Attention should be paid to changes in external tariffs and the pace of domestic policy implementation. With the support of a series of domestic policies, the market's adjustment space is limited. Meanwhile, several major financial policies are expected to be announced during the Lujiazui Forum from June 18 to 19, which are likely to support market expectations. It is recommended to focus on structural opportunities. In the long term, the trend of the A-share market will still reflect the principle of "taking our own path as the main focus". As the Central Huijin Investment Ltd. effectively plays the role of a "stabilization fund" and policies vigorously promote the entry of medium and long-term funds into the market, the A-share market will have a more solid foundation for stable operation. Allocation opportunities across three main themes: First, assets with a relatively high safety margin. Against the backdrop of significantly increased uncertainty in the external environment, the dividend sector, which has relatively strong earnings certainty and overall stable dividend returns, possesses defensive attributes. Second, the logic of the "technology narrative" in the A-share market is clear. The revised restructuring measures will help promote the participation of early-stage technology innovation enterprises in mergers and acquisitions. Technology will remain the main theme for medium and long-term allocation, with short-term focus on sub-sectors with lower valuations. Third, the big consumption sector boosted by policies. Economic data for April shows that the trade-in policy for consumer goods continues to be effective. Recently, the concept of new consumption has been repeatedly active. As uncertainty in the external environment increases, expanding domestic demand has become a long-term strategic move, highlighting the importance of boosting consumption. Dongguan Securities: The market's overall risk appetite is expected to receive systematic support. From the perspective of the market environment in June, overseas, the US tariff policy has been fluctuating, and the subsequent path of interest rate cuts by the US Fed will highly depend on subsequent economic data and tariff negotiation progress. Domestically, with the easing of Sino-US trade disputes, the implementation of a series of incremental policies by the "one bank, one bureau, one commission", and the concerted efforts of all parties to promote the effective implementation of established policies and accelerate the strengthening of incremental policy reserves, all these provide strong support for the domestic economic fundamentals. In the capital market, the current concerted efforts to stabilize the capital market have injected key momentum into boosting investor confidence. Looking ahead to June, as Sino-US trade relations tend to ease, quasi-stabilization funds have played a crucial supporting role in hedging tail risks in the market. With the concerted efforts of all parties to promote the effective implementation of established policies, accelerate the strengthening of incremental policy reserves, and the continuous entry of medium and long-term funds into the market, it is expected to continuously improve the market's microstructure and enhance investor confidence. Against the backdrop of the combined forces of policies and funding, the market's overall risk appetite is expected to receive systematic support. However, considering that there may be certain selling pressure above, the market may continue to fluctuate in the short term. In the medium term, supported by the economy's resilience and the accumulation of policy tools, the broader market still has upward momentum. Sector Allocation: Overweight financials, utilities, non-ferrous metals, and TMT. BOC Securities: Exports May Exceed Expectations This Year From overseas industry inventory perspectives, most sectors are in the mid-stage of restocking except midstream industries like automobiles, machinery equipment, and transportation equipment. Downstream consumer goods-related sectors show more pronounced restocking, reflecting resilient overseas demand. Leading indicators suggest short-term overseas restocking demand will likely persist, with potential for exports to surpass expectations this year. Market-wise, since May, sectors tied to external demand have outperformed. The Geneva agreement between China and the U.S. temporarily boosted market sentiment, while April's stronger-than-expected exports corrected overly pessimistic expectations. Subsequent uncertainties around export and external demand strength remain the market's focus. Unlike 2018, tariff policies now pose significantly reduced impacts on domestic fundamentals and markets. Fundamentally, ample policy buffers mitigate economic downside risks, with domestic demand data and tariff progress influencing policy expectations. Market-wise, upside room depends on economic recovery strength, while "quasi-stabilization funds" contain downside risks. Uncertainty from Trump-era trade policies may prolong "diversion trade," with resilient demand potentially driving exports above expectations and strengthening external demand chains. GF Securities: China-U.S. Relations, Fiscal Stimulus, and DeepSeek's Tech Breakthrough May Trigger A-Share Market Breakout After April's oversold rebound, A-shares fluctuated rangebound near pre-reciprocal tariff levels, with only innovative drugs showing sectoral trends amid mostly thematic rotations. Looking ahead, China-U.S. relations, fiscal stimulus, and DeepSeek's tech milestone could serve as key triggers to escape this tight range. Absent domestic fiscal or bilateral progress, tech sector developments may prove pivotal. After three months of adjustment, tech stocks—especially AI-related segments—now meet prerequisites for a rebound: 1) TMT turnover ratios hover at the lower bound of 2023's AI narrative range, signaling potential momentum; 2) Since April's reciprocal-tariff rebound, margin balances stagnated at yearly lows, leaving room for incremental funding. Thus, June's concentrated tech giant product launches may prove decisive. Ping An Securities: New Quality Momentum Gathers Strength, Tech Growth Breaks Through Overseas, the US tariff policy faces multiple uncertainties from domestic judicial rulings and external negotiations, while Nvidia's Q1 results exceeded expectations again. Domestically, the manufacturing sector's prosperity margin rebounded in May, with high-tech industry profits showing positive trends; expectations for financial policies have increased. Overall, the current changes in the external environment still carry uncertainties, and the importance of self-reliance and controllability in domestic technology and the resilience of domestic demand continue to rise. Domestic policy support and the positive development of industries towards innovation are expected to continue to support the medium-term upward potential of the equity market. Structurally, attention should be paid to two main lines: First, the growth style represented by domestic technology and high-end manufacturing, such as the defense and military industry with upward industry prospects, and the direction of self-reliance and controllability in technology represented by semiconductors; second, high-quality consumer assets (new consumption/pharmaceutical and biological, etc.) that benefit from policies supporting the expansion of domestic demand. Huaxi Securities: A-shares in June Still in a Window Period for Market Recovery A-shares in June remain in a window period for market recovery. Recently, market trading sentiment has pulled back, mainly due to the repeated changes in the US tariff policy overseas. In addition, the slow pace of Sino-US trade negotiations may partly be due to tactical considerations in negotiations. Subsequent Phase II Sino-US consultations will remain a key influencing factor for market risk appetite. On the other hand, the strength of domestic medium and long-term patient capital is growing. By promoting the construction of long-term market stabilization mechanisms and signaling regular "market support," regulators will strongly support the bottom range of A-shares. ·In terms of industry allocation, maintain a moderately balanced allocation. Attention should be paid to precious metals, public utilities, new consumption, AI applications (software, hardware), etc. In terms of themes, attention should be paid to: military industry, self-reliance and controllability, mergers and acquisitions, etc. Everbright Securities: Consumption is Expected to Remain One of the Key Momentums for Economic Recovery The most severe period of short-term external risk disturbances may have passed, but vigilance is still needed regarding potential reversals in Trump's subsequent policies. Recently, domestic policies have remained actively implemented, and it is expected that subsequent policies will continue to be rolled out. With the US and China hitting the "pause" button on "reciprocal tariffs" for 90 days, exports may maintain high growth in the short term, and consumption is expected to remain one of the key momentums for economic recovery. Amidst the interplay of internal and external factors, it is expected that the index will remain volatile overall in June. Definite Main Lines: 1) Domestic consumption. Expanding domestic demand has been a key focus of recent domestic policies, and it is expected to continue to receive policy catalysts in the future. In addition, the overall performance of the consumer industry is more resilient. Attention should be paid to industries such as household goods, food processing, professional services, and leisure food. 2) Domestic substitution. Attention should be paid to two clues: performance certainty and thematic investment. The former focuses on industries with a high proportion of imports from the US and strong domestic supply capabilities, including publishing, decoration materials, etc. The latter focuses on industries with a high proportion of imports from the US but with domestic supply capabilities expected to improve, such as aviation equipment, medical devices, animal health, and chemical pharmaceuticals. 3) Underallocated sectors by funds: The "Action Plan for Promoting the High-Quality Development of Public Funds" may have a profound impact on the asset allocation of the fund industry. Some sectors that are underallocated by funds are worth paying attention to in the medium and long-term, including banking, non-banking financial services, utilities, transportation, and other industries. However, in the short-term, it is necessary to be cautious about the potential expectation deviations that may arise from over-interpretation.

Recently, Goldman Sachs released a report titled "The Strategic Case for Gold and Oil in Long-Term Portfolios," suggesting that long-term investors reconsider the role of gold and oil in their portfolios, based on the historical effectiveness of these assets in hedging against inflation shocks and systemic risks. Goldman Sachs analysts recommend that, over the next five years, "allocations to gold should be above normal levels," while "allocations to oil should be below normal levels (but still positive)." Allocating to Gold and Oil for Risk Hedging Goldman Sachs believes that "for investors seeking to minimize risk or tail losses given a certain level of return, an active, long-term allocation to gold and enhanced oil futures is optimal." The bank emphasizes that gold can hedge against risks associated with declining fiscal and central bank credibility, while oil can protect against negative supply shocks. Historically, "during any 12-month period when real returns on both stocks and bonds were negative, real returns on oil or gold were positive." Two Key Factors Support Overweighting Gold Goldman Sachs' call to overweight gold is primarily based on two main factors: "the elevated risk of shocks to the credibility of US institutions (e.g., fiscal expansion, pressure on the US Fed) and the boost in demand for gold from global central banks." So far in 2025, gold prices have surged by 26.6%, setting a series of records. This is largely linked to concerns about US policies—concerns that Goldman Sachs does not expect to reverse quickly. "If these concerns intensify, private investors could push gold prices well beyond our current forecasts—we currently forecast gold to reach $3,700 per ounce by the end of the year and $4,000 per ounce by mid-2026." Meanwhile, amid the global trend of de-dollarization, foreign central banks will continue to increase their gold reserves to reduce reliance on US dollar-denominated assets. This trend is unlikely to change in the foreseeable future. Strategic Rationale for Allocating to Oil In contrast, the recommendation to underweight oil is driven by recent supply dynamics, as "high spare capacity in the crude oil market... reduces the risk of crude oil shortages in 2025-2026," Goldman Sachs writes. However, Goldman Sachs also notes that "starting from 2028, the growth in non-OPEC crude oil supply will slow significantly, increasing the risk of future oil inflation shocks," providing a rationale for maintaining a limited strategic allocation to oil. Goldman Sachs stated that by increasing holdings of gold and enhanced oil futures, the annualized volatility of the traditional 60/40 portfolio could be reduced from nearly 10% to 7%, while maintaining a historical average return of 8.7%.

[Rental Yields Stage a Comeback Amid "Dual Decline" in Deposit and Loan Interest Rates] The recent interest rate adjustments in the financial market are profoundly influencing residents' asset allocation strategies. With the 5-year and above LPR dropping to 3.5%, coupled with commercial banks' deposit interest rates generally entering the "1% era," traditional wealth management returns continue to narrow. Real estate investments, which offer stable cash flows, are regaining market attention. In areas such as Longgang, Shenzhen, developers have keenly captured this trend shift. Multiple apartment projects are promoting the concept of "using rent to cover loan payments," emphasizing that rental yields above 4% have significantly surpassed the returns from fixed deposits.

On May 27, amid the doldrums of the broader market, the share price of Hunan Gold also experienced a decline. As of 13:24 on the 27th, Hunan Gold fell by 1.54%, closing at 23.04 yuan per share. When asked, "What are the planned production volumes for the company's self-produced gold, antimony products, and tungsten products in 2025?", Hunan Gold stated on the investor interaction platform on May 27 that, the company plans to produce 72,475 kg of gold, 39,537 mt of antimony, and 1,100 standard mt of tungsten products in 2025. In 2024, the prices of antimony and gold saw significant increases, substantially boosting the profits of many related enterprises. 1# Antimony Ingot saw a 70.73% increase in 2024. 》Click to view SMM antimony metal spot prices 》Subscribe to view historical price trends of SMM metal spot prices In 2024, antimony prices generally surged. Although prices slightly corrected since mid-October 2024, they remained high, resulting in a notable increase for the entire year. From the historical price trend of SMM 1# antimony ingot: the average price of SMM 1# antimony ingot was 82,000 yuan/mt on December 29, 2023, and 140,000 yuan/mt on December 31, 2024, marking an increase of 58,000 yuan/mt over the year, with a 70.73% increase in 2024. In 2025, antimony prices continued the upward trend of 2024. On May 27, the latest quote for SMM 1# antimony ingot was 221,500 yuan/mt, a 58.21% increase compared to the average price of 140,000 yuan/mt on December 31, 2024. The year-to-date high of 238,000 yuan/mt represents a 70% increase compared to the average price of 140,000 yuan/mt on December 31, 2024. After maintaining a firm price at 238,000 yuan/mt for over 20 days, the average price of antimony recently experienced some downward pressure. Although the fundamental supply and demand dynamics in the antimony market have not changed significantly, the substantial suspension of imported ore entering the domestic market has led to a severe shortage of domestic antimony raw materials. Additionally, the overall inventory of antimony products among domestic manufacturers is at historically low levels, prompting manufacturers to maintain stable pricing. In the domestic antimony end-use market, orders for both flame retardants and PV-related antimony products have remained basically stable. Although there has been no recent improvement in orders from the end-use sector, they have not deteriorated either, with a generally good pace of just-in-time procurement. However, due to the recent interplay of bullish and bearish market news, the sentiment in the retail investment market has become chaotic, leading to the entry of some low-priced supplies into the market and causing antimony prices to decline since May 15. Gold prices maintain an overall upward trend, with COMEX gold up nearly 27% year-to-date Following a 13.45% increase in 2023, COMEX gold surged by 27.39% in 2024. Since the beginning of this year, it has repeatedly hit record highs, reaching a peak of $3,509.9 per ounce. With the temporary suspension of US-EU tariff disputes and a rebound in market risk appetite, gold prices experienced a slight correction. However, recent fluctuations in US trade policies and market concerns about the US fiscal outlook have limited the downside room for gold prices. As of 14:33 on May 27, COMEX gold fell by 1.22%, closing at $3,353.2 per ounce, with a year-to-date increase of 26.97% in 2025. Regarding the outlook for gold prices, multiple institutions have the following views: Jinyuan Futures stated that despite the temporary easing of the US-EU trade war, there is still significant uncertainty in subsequent trade negotiations. The global economic outlook remains unclear, and geopolitical risks are frequent. Investors tend to seek more stable asset allocations, and it is expected that gold prices will maintain a fluctuating trend at highs in the short term. Citi has raised its 0-3 month target price for gold to $3,500 per ounce, and expects gold prices to consolidate between $3,100 and $3,500 per ounce. For gold prices at the end of this year and next year, Ningxia Ruiyin Lead Resource Recycling Co., Ltd. maintains a forecast of $3,500 per ounce, with the peak possibly reaching $3,600 per ounce by mid-2026. This is due to considerations of downside risks to economic growth, and the possibility that the US Fed may continue to ease monetary policy. A report previously released by the World Gold Council showed that global gold prices hit record highs 20 times in Q1. Affected by this, the total global gold jewelry consumption decreased by 21% YoY, reaching its lowest point since 2020. However, there was a significant increase in gold investment demand. In Q1, the global gold investment demand was 551.9 mt, a substantial increase of 170% YoY. This indicates that against the backdrop of gold prices repeatedly reaching new highs, global gold jewelry demand has declined, but gold as an investment product is more favored.

》[Live] Research and Analysis on Macroeconomy, Electric Power, Infrastructure, Real Estate, and PV Markets; Outlook on Copper and Aluminum Prices; Insights into Cable Technology Trends SMM News on May 22: Metal Market: As of the daytime close, overseas base metals generally declined, with only SHFE aluminum and SHFE nickel rising together. SHFE aluminum rose by 0.2%, and SHFE nickel rose by 0.03%. SHFE lead led the losses with a decline of 1.21%, while SHFE tin fell by 0.87%. The main alumina contract rose by 1.01%, recording four consecutive gains. In addition, the main lithium carbonate contract rose by 1.67%, the main polysilicon contract rose by 1.14%, the main silicon metal contract fell by 0.19%, and the main European container shipping contract fell by 0.95%. The ferrous metals series showed mixed performance. Iron ore led the gains with a rise of 0.14%, stainless steel rose by 0.04%, and HRC rose by 0.09%. In the coking coal and coke sector, coking coal fell by 0.85%, and coke fell by 1.66%. In the overseas market, as of 15:02, only LME aluminum rose, up by 0.4%. The rest of the metals recorded varying degrees of decline, with LME lead falling by 0.91% and LME tin falling by 0.62%. The declines in other metals fluctuated slightly. In the precious metals sector, as of 15:02, COMEX gold rose by 0.49%, and COMEX silver rose by 0.12%. Domestically, SHFE gold rose by 1.22%, recording five consecutive gains, and SHFE silver rose by 1.06%. Market conditions as of 15:02 today 》Click to view SMM Market Dashboard Macro Front Domestic: [State Administration for Market Regulation Seeks Public Comments on Renewal of Old Residential Elevators] According to today's official website news from the State Administration for Market Regulation, in order to thoroughly implement the relevant decisions and deployments of the CPC Central Committee and the State Council, systematically promote the use of ultra-long-term special treasury bond funds to support the renewal of old residential elevators, and ensure the safety of residents using elevators, the "Notice on Further Improving the Renewal of Old Residential Elevators (Draft for Comments)" has been drafted and is now open for public comments. It mentions that local market regulatory authorities should urge elevator manufacturing units to earnestly fulfill their production responsibilities and provide elevator products with high quality, reasonable prices, and excellent after-sales service for the renewal of old residential elevators. The safety performance indicators of the drive units, control systems, door systems, suspension devices, and deflector sheaves selected by the manufacturing units for the renewed elevators must not be lower than those of the original elevators in use, ensuring sufficient safety margins. [Total Installed Power Generation Capacity Nearly 3.5 Billion kW in the First Four Months of This Year] Statistics released by the National Energy Administration show that as of the end of April, the total installed power generation capacity nationwide was 3.49 billion kW, up 15.9% YoY. Among them, the installed power generation capacity for solar energy was 990 million kW, up 47.7% YoY; the installed capacity for wind power was 540 million kW, up 18.2% YoY. From January to April this year, the total investment in power supply projects by major power generation enterprises nationwide reached 193.3 billion yuan, up 1.6% YoY; the total investment in power grid projects reached 140.8 billion yuan, up 14.6% YoY. [Shanghai Municipal Financial Regulatory Bureau: Supporting SHFE, CFFEX, and other financial markets in Shanghai to build world-class exchanges] Zhou Xiaoquan, Executive Deputy Director of the Shanghai Municipal Financial Regulatory Bureau, stated at the "2025 Shanghai Derivatives Market Forum" that Shanghai is further strengthening the functions of its financial markets, supporting SHFE, CFFEX, and other financial markets in Shanghai to build world-class exchanges, accelerating the construction of a center for RMB financial asset allocation and risk management, and better serving national strategies and safeguarding national security. First, it will continue to deepen the opening up of financial markets and enhance their internationalization. It will deepen the interconnection and interoperability of financial markets and accelerate the launch of international-oriented financial products. Second, it will continue to improve the layout of the derivatives system and expand the breadth and depth of services to the real economy. It will support the further enrichment of commodity and financial futures products, empowering the development of new quality productive forces with a more comprehensive product system. Third, it will enhance the ability to prevent and resolve financial risks and safeguard national strategic security. It will leverage the functions of the futures market to help real enterprises better manage risks and safeguard the security of China's industry and supply chains. It will support financial markets in seizing opportunities in digitalization, intelligence, and green development, enhancing their capabilities for independent and controllable system operations and secure maintenance. (Caijing) [SHFE: Accelerating the R&D and listing of varieties such as cast aluminum alloy and LNG] Tian Xiangyang, Chairman of SHFE, stated at the 2025 Shanghai Derivatives Market Forum that SHFE will establish a first-class product system that meets the needs of new quality productive forces, accelerating the R&D and listing of varieties such as cast aluminum alloy, LNG, offset printing paper, and corrugated base paper. It will create a first-class institutional mechanism that combines international standards with Chinese characteristics, steadily promoting portfolio margining, launching new trading instructions, and deepening the market's functions. The People's Bank of China conducted 154.5 billion yuan of 7-day reverse repo operations today, with an operating interest rate of 1.40%, unchanged from the previous rate. As 64.5 billion yuan of 7-day reverse repos matured today, a net injection of 90 billion yuan was achieved. ► The central parity rate of the RMB against the US dollar in the interbank foreign exchange market on May 22 was 7.1903 yuan per US dollar. US dollar: As of 15:02, the US dollar index fell by 0.01% to 99.6. Increased market concerns over the growing US debt, coupled with weak demand for 20-year US Treasury bonds, highlighted the market's low appetite for US assets. US House Speaker Johnson stated that a vote on a massive tax cut and spending bill could take place as early as Wednesday evening. The US Treasury Department sold $16 billion worth of 20-year bonds on Wednesday, but demand was weak. Investors are concerned that as Congress continues to debate the tax cut bill, the US debt burden will continue to grow. Later this week, several US Fed officials will deliver speeches that may provide further clues about the economy and the central bank's policy path. The market is currently pricing in at least a 50 basis point interest rate cut this year, with the first cut expected in October. Macro Aspects: Today, the preliminary SPGI Manufacturing PMI for France in May, the preliminary SPGI Manufacturing PMI for Germany in May, the preliminary SPGI Manufacturing PMI for the Eurozone in May, the Germany May IFO Business Climate Index, the preliminary SPGI Services PMI for the UK in May, the preliminary SPGI Manufacturing PMI for the UK in May, the CBI Industrial Trends Orders in the UK in May, the CFIB Business Barometer in Canada in May, the initial jobless claims in the US for the week ending May 17, the continued jobless claims in the US for the week ending May 10, the preliminary SPGI Manufacturing PMI for the US in May, and the annualized total of existing home sales in the US in April, among other data, will be released. Additionally, it is worth noting that Thomas Barkin, the 2027 FOMC voter and president of the Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond, will attend an event titled "Fed Listens." The State Council Information Office will hold a press conference, where Qiu Yong, Vice Minister of the Ministry of Science and Technology, Zhu Hexin, Deputy Governor of the People's Bank of China and Director of the State Administration of Foreign Exchange, and relevant officials from the National Administration of Financial Regulation and the China Securities Regulatory Commission will introduce the situation regarding science and technology finance policies and answer questions from reporters. The European Central Bank will release the minutes of its April monetary policy meeting. Crude Oil Aspects: As of 15:02, oil prices in both markets fell simultaneously, with US oil down 1.61% and Brent oil down 1.63%. Kazakhstan continues to overproduce, and OPEC+ may adopt a more aggressive production increase strategy to enforce discipline. Kazakhstan has repeatedly exceeded its OPEC+ production quota, with its oil output further increasing by 2% in May to reach 1.86 million barrels per day, far exceeding its quota of 1.486 million barrels per day. This country, which has significantly overproduced, is becoming a headache for cooperation within OPEC+, undermining the credibility of OPEC+'s compensatory production cut agreement. OPEC+ may still consider a more aggressive production increase strategy on June 1 to warn member countries within the organization to strengthen production cut discipline, thereby putting greater supply pressure on the oil market. As Saudi Arabia shifts towards increasing production and demand slows down, the risk of inventory buildup in the oil market is gradually intensifying. According to the IEA's latest monthly report, it is expected that the increase in global crude oil supply in 2025 will far exceed the increase in demand, which is also the mainstream view of the vast majority of research institutions. The International Energy Agency (IEA) significantly raised its forecast for global supply growth in 2025 by 380,000 barrels per day (bpd) to 1.6 million bpd, primarily due to Saudi Arabia's shift from adhering to production cuts to accelerating production increases. The IEA also sharply lowered its forecast for global crude oil demand growth in 2025 from 1.03 million bpd to 730,000 bpd, and further reduced its projection for global crude oil demand growth in 2026 to 690,000 bpd, citing a global economic slowdown leading to a slowdown in oil product consumption. Meanwhile, OPEC lowered its forecast for global crude oil demand growth in 2025 from 1.45 million bpd to 1.3 million bpd. While the organization remains more optimistic from a seller's perspective, it has to admit that the demand outlook is deteriorating. (Wenhua Comprehensive) SMM Daily Review ► [SMM MHP Daily Review] May 22: Indonesian MHP prices slightly decline ► [SMM Nickel Sulphate Daily Review] May 22: Nickel salt prices remain stable