Today, DCE iron ore futures started weak and strengthened later, with contract I2609 eventually closing at 746 yuan/mt, up 0.67% from the previous trading session. Port spot prices were unchanged from the previous trading day. Trader activity was moderate, and steel mills purchased as needed. Spot trading volumes were mediocre as of now. In the short term, the iron ore supply side continues to ease. According to SMM data, China's iron ore port arrivals reached 29.33 million mt last week, up 5.47% WoW and 5.94% YoY. Meanwhile, SMM's total iron ore inventory across 35 ports reached approximately 148 million mt based on the latest data, with overall destocking beginning to slow down. As downstream demand weakens, pressure on the iron ore supply side is gradually emerging, continuing to cap the price ceiling. Meanwhile, bullish and bearish rumors are intertwined in the news, which may drive iron ore prices to edge up slightly in the near term. Taking all factors into account, the market may continue its sideways consolidation pattern in the near term. [SMM Steel]

SMM, June 29: As of Monday, June 29, copper inventories across major Chinese regions edged down 0.07 mt WoW from last Monday and increased 1,400 mt from last Thursday, bringing total inventories to 207,400 mt. Total inventories rose 81,300 mt compared to 126,100 mt in the same period last year, with mixed regional performances. In detail, Shanghai saw higher port arrivals of imported copper, but the pullback in copper prices spurred downstream procurement, and faster warehouse withdrawals led to a slight inventory decline. Jiangsu's end-use consumption recovered concurrently, sustaining inventory destocking. Guangdong, meanwhile, showed weak consumption and concentrated arrivals, resulting in a notable regional inventory buildup. Market outlook: In the near term, arrivals of imported and domestic copper are expected to increase, keeping overall spot supply ample. After copper prices consolidated higher, downstream wait-and-see sentiment re-emerged. Our survey indicates that the operating rate of copper cathode rod producers is expected to rise to 67.77% this week, up 2.37 percentage points WoW. Based on the combined supply-demand picture—ample supply and cautious demand—China's social inventory of copper cathode is expected to edge up next week.

[SMM Shanghai Spot Copper] Tomorrow, on the inventory front, SMM data shows that Shanghai social inventory stood at 134,200 mt, down 4,100 mt WoW from last Thursday; Jiangsu inventory stood at 41,200 mt, down 900 mt WoW. Although some imported cargo arrived at ports, overall warehouse withdrawals last week were good, and inventory continued a slight destocking trend, providing some support for spot discounts. Supplier side, the month-end selling pressure has been largely released, and market shipments have returned to normal pace. Supplier quotations were relatively stable during the day, showing no signs of significant downward adjustments. Moreover, some suppliers are bullish on the premiums outlook, and their willingness to hold prices firm has strengthened. From the invoice structure, cargoes with invoices dated this month remain relatively tight, with a certain price spread maintained between current-month and next-month invoices. Overall, with the end of month-end selling, inventory destocking, and suppliers' firm price stance, the overall discount center of Shanghai spot copper against the 2607 contract is expected to edge up further tomorrow.

【SMM Copper Inventory Flash】National mainstream copper cathode inventories recorded 207,400 mt, up 1,400 mt WoW from last Thursday, with regional trends diverging. Shanghai and Jiangsu continued destocking, supported by a pullback in copper prices and recovering downstream demand; in Guangdong, weak end-use demand, combined with a notable increase in arrivals, led to a sharp inventory buildup.

On June 29, the warrant average price rose $1/mt from the previous trading day, settling at $68/mt (price range $64-72/mt); the B/L average price remained flat from the previous trading day, settling at $69/mt (price range $64-74/mt); the EQ copper (CIF B/L) average price rose $3/mt from the previous trading day, settling at $41/mt (price range $37-45/mt), with quotes referencing arrivals in early July. During the day, the SHFE/LME price ratio weakened, and with trading relatively concentrated last week, today's market activity was sluggish, with only a very few spot cargo offers.

SMM, June 29: Today, Guangdong #1 copper cathode spot against the front-month contract: high-quality copper was quoted at 20 yuan/mt, down by 50 yuan/mt from the previous trading day; standard-quality copper was quoted at a discount of 60 yuan/mt, down by 70 yuan/mt; SX-EW copper was quoted at a discount of 120 yuan/mt, down by 70 yuan/mt. The average price of Guangdong #1 copper cathode was 102,320 yuan/mt, up by 535 yuan/mt from the previous trading day, and the average price of SX-EW copper was 102,220 yuan/mt, up by 525 yuan/mt. Spot market: Guangdong inventory continued to increase after the weekend, marking seven consecutive trading days of gains, mainly driven by increased arrivals and sluggish consumption. Approaching the mid-year settlement, some suppliers were eager to monetize, which, combined with soft consumption, led to a sharp decline in premiums today. In Guangdong, purchasing sentiment for copper cathode stood at 2.52, down by 0.18 from the previous trading day, while selling sentiment was 2.93, up by 0.03 (historical data can be accessed by logging into the database). Overall, as the mid-year settlement approached, suppliers actively lowered prices to sell, and spot trades remained sluggish.