Tariffs, certification regimes and quotas, not demand, have redrawn Indonesia's 4.7 million-mt export map since 2021: China's share has halved, India has quadrupled, and Europe's door has narrowed to a slab-shaped hole.

[SMM Analysis: Significant Decline in China’s Galvanized Sheet Exports to South Korea in June – How Will the Market Fare in July?] According to the latest customs data, for galvanized sheets, exports in June 2026 were 1.0718 million mt, down 11.24% MoM and down 5.26% YoY. Cumulative exports from January to June reached 6.7066 million mt, a cumulative YoY decrease of 3.13%...

Chinese-backed steel investment is increasingly shifting from direct exports toward local production across Southeast Asia. New and planned projects in Malaysia, Indonesia, Vietnam, Thailand and the Philippines could strengthen regional supply, but may also intensify competition if capacity growth continues to outpace demand.

India's imported met coke market remained largely inactive through mid-July as buyers awaited a government decision on definitive anti-dumping duties. A provisional antidumping duty ranging US$60.87–130.66 per tonne on low-ash metallurgical coke took effect at the start of 2026 and applied until 30 June. India's DGTR had recommended lowering the duties on Indonesian and Japanese coke imports following its investigation. Market participants are awaiting the final DGFT notification on definitive duties and their implementation period. India lifted import restrictions on met coke with ash below 18% via a 3 January DGFT notification alongside the duty. The uncertainty has kept import buying cautious even at lower offer levels.

Japan's Ministry of Finance enacted a Cabinet Order imposing a provisional anti-dumping duty on nickel-added cold-rolled stainless steel coil, sheet and strip originating from mainland China and Taiwan, effective July 9 through November 8, 2026. The duty rates range from 3.6% to 42.1% depending on the exporting company, with Taiwan's Yieh United Steel securing a comparatively low rate of 3.86% following the preliminary determination. The action follows an investigation launched in July 2025 after Japan's domestic industry alleged material injury from dumped imports. The measure is one of several anti-dumping and safeguard actions taken by importing countries against flat steel products in 2026 as global overcapacity concerns persist. Final duty determination is expected after the provisional period concludes.

Tightening supply policy in Indonesia, new import quotas and carbon costs in the EU, and tariff walls in the US pushed benchmark stainless steel prices higher across nearly every major market in the first half of 2026 — even as real demand stayed weak everywhere, turning global trade increasingly into a fight over market access rather than supply and demand.