[SMM Aluminum Price Weekly Review: Middle East Geopolitical Conflict Drove a Sharp Surge in Aluminum Prices; In the Short Term, Aluminum Prices Are Expected to Hold Up Well]

SMM, March 6: In early trading, SHFE aluminum 2602 fluctuated upward, while the price center fell sharply from the previous trading day. Downstream processing enterprises were bullish on the aluminum price outlook and proactively restocked, with relatively strong willingness to purchase; traders mainly focused on monetizing shipments and reducing open interest. Today’s market transactions were at the average price to 30 yuan/mt. Today, the east China market shipments sentiment index was 3.11, up 0.13 MoM; the purchasing sentiment index was 2.76, down 0.2 MoM. The direction of geopolitical tailwinds remained unclear, and aluminum prices stopped rising and pulled back in the short term. In the central China market, traders remained strongly bullish and tended to take the opportunity to purchase at lower prices, while suppliers were mainly on the sidelines with low willingness to sell. Circulating supply was relatively tight, driving premiums to continue rising. Quotes climbed from a premium of 20 yuan/mt over the central China price before the open to a premium of 50 yuan/mt over the central China price, while the final mainstream transaction prices were around a premium of 20–30 yuan/mt over the central China price. Today, the central China market shipments sentiment index was 2.66, down 0.1 MoM; the purchasing sentiment index was 2.41, up 0.01 MoM. Inventory side, today’s aluminum ingot inventory in major consumption areas increased by 2,000 mt MoM, with the inventory buildup mainly coming from Wuxi and Guangdong. In the short term, after the Chinese New Year, aluminum ingots continued to see seasonal inventory buildup; influenced by bullish sentiment, premiums were expected to remain on a narrowing trend.

[SMM Analysis]Macro Factors Drove, and Supply and Demand Gradually Recovered,ADC12 Prices Were Expected to Rise in March

[SMM Cast Aluminum Alloy Morning Comment: Overseas ADC12 Prices Surged to USD 3,200, with Import Losses Expanding Sharply] In the overnight session, the aluminum alloy 2604 contract in the night session moved downwards after a higher opening and fluctuated downward. After opening at 23,295 yuan/mt, it rose to 23,420 yuan/mt, then continued to pull back, dipping to a low of 23,000 yuan/mt, and closed at 23,170 yuan/mt in late trading, down 1.07% from the previous close. Open interest continued to decline, with bulls clearly reducing positions; trading volume edged up, and the price center moved lower.

[Geopolitical Tensions Disrupted the Market, With SHFE and LME Closing Lower Over the Week] At the beginning of the week, continued overseas destocking supported a higher center for LME zinc; subsequently, as geopolitical tensions fueled inflation concerns, a stronger US dollar pressured the base metals sector, and LME zinc retreated after rapid rise, with its center moving lower......

According to SMM, as of February 27, 2026, the days of inventories for domestic aluminum rod plants were recorded at 12.7 days, an increase of 8.6 days from before the holiday.In the first week after the holiday, the weekly operating rate of the domestic aluminum wire and cable industry rebounded to 57%, up 4 percentage points MoM, significantly higher than the pre-holiday low of 53%.