Strait of Hormuz disruptions and Iran tensions are driving up aluminum prices and premiums. Aluminium Bahrain and Qatalum have cut output, while feedstock is tight. Rerouting via Port of Sohar or Saudi ports raises costs and delays. Buyers are turning to China, India, Russia, Canada, and scrap to offset risk. Prolonged disruption could reduce Middle East market share and reprice it as higher-risk supply.

SMM, March 24: SHFE aluminum 2604 fluctuated downward in early trading, slightly higher than the previous trading day. Overall market buying sentiment was relatively good, and sellers held prices firm as aluminum prices remained at relatively low levels. Today’s mainstream transaction prices were concentrated at SHFE aluminum 04 contract +10 yuan/mt. Today, the east China market shipments sentiment index was 2.79, up 0.07 MoM; the purchasing sentiment index was 3.34, up 0.04 MoM. As aluminum prices extended their decline, traders in the central China market showed weak purchase sentiment. With the month-end settlement date approaching, suppliers made heavy shipments and showed limited willingness to hold prices firm. Downstream processing enterprises were wary of further price declines, with no expectation of large-scale stockpiling at low prices for now. Overall market purchase activity was sluggish, and prices showed a continued price collapse trend. Ultimately, actual transaction prices in the central China market were concentrated in the range from a premium of 20 yuan over the central China price to a discount of 20 yuan to the central China price. Today, the central China market shipments sentiment index was 2.63, flat MoM; the purchasing sentiment index was 2.4, down 0.08 MoM. Inventory side, aluminum ingot inventory in major consumption areas increased by 6,500 mt MoM today, with destocking mainly coming from Gongyi and Guangdong. In the short term, after the Chinese New Year, aluminum ingot inventory continued to see seasonal inventory buildup. Affected by bullish sentiment, premiums are expected to remain on a narrowing trend.

SMM News, March 24: Aluminum ingot: On March 24, SMM A00 aluminum (Foshan) was reported at 23,440, up 30, at a discount of 170 against the current-month contract, narrowing by 5 (unit: yuan/mt) The SHFE aluminum 04 contract generally stabilized today. Supported by aluminum prices halting their decline and edging up slightly, the South China spot market stabilized and improved, and buyers generally showed good purchasing sentiment today. Spot prices were significantly below the monthly average price, and sellers firmly held prices firm. However, amid weekend inventory buildup and ample circulating cargo, overall support for firm prices was clearly constrained under high inventory pressure. Mainstream transaction prices in the market today were concentrated at premiums of -175 yuan/mt to -165 yuan/mt against the SHFE aluminum 04 contract.

Dalian iron ore futures rose in early trading and pulled back in the afternoon. The most-traded contract, I2605, finally closed at 824 yuan/mt, up 0.55% from the previous trading session. Spot prices rose by about 2-5 yuan from the previous trading day. Traders were relatively active in offering quotes, while steel mills made fewer inquiries and purchased cautiously, with overall transactions in the spot market remaining average. In terms of fundamental data, blast furnace maintenance intensity continued to pull back this week, with maintenance affecting hot metal production by 1.65 million mt, down 206,500 mt WoW. It was expected to decrease by a further 180,000 mt next week to 1.4684 million mt, indicating a gradual improvement on the demand side. In terms of supply, tight supply still persisted in the market, and there was no news of any significant adjustment, which remained supportive for iron ore in the short term. However, some funds, out of concern over downstream risks, tended to stay on the sidelines, and overall wait-and-see sentiment was strong. In summary, iron ore prices were expected to hover at highs in the short term.

[SMM Stainless Steel Daily Review] News-Driven Disturbances Pushed SS Futures Higher to Test the Upside, Confidence in the Stainless Steel Spot Market Gradually Recovered SMM News, March 24: SS futures rose strongly. Affected by market fluctuations triggered by news of geopolitical conflict yesterday, SS futures rose sharply in the night session, and the daytime session maintained a fluctuating but relatively strong trend, closing at 14,290 yuan/mt by midday. In the spot market, boosted by the sharp rise in SS futures, market confidence somewhat recovered; although the increase in traders' spot quotations was limited, both inquiries and transactions showed signs of recovery during the week. The current market is heavily disturbed by news factors, and changes in the geopolitical conflict still need close attention. The most-traded SS futures contract strengthened and moved higher. At 10:15 a.m., SS2605 was quoted at 14,305 yuan/mt, up 125 yuan/mt from the previous trading day. Spot premiums for 304/2B in Wuxi were in the range of 115-315 yuan/mt. In the spot market, the average price of cold-rolled 201/2B coils in Wuxi rose by 50 yuan/mt; for cold-rolled trim-edge 304/2B coils, the average price in Wuxi rose by 50 yuan/mt, while the average price in Foshan was unchanged; cold-rolled 316L/2B coils in Wuxi were unchanged; for hot-rolled 316L/NO.1 coils, Wuxi quotations were unchanged; cold-rolled 430/2B coils in both Wuxi and Foshan were also unchanged. As the market entered the traditional peak consumption season of "Golden March and Silver April," although the stainless steel market ushered in a seasonal recovery window, end-use demand fell short of expectations, downstream wait-and-see sentiment gradually intensified, and the procurement side only maintained a restocking pace for rigid demand, with none of the transaction momentum typically seen in the peak season emerging. The market's view on stainless steel prices...

[SMM Daily Review: High-Grade NPI May Still Have Downside Room Under the Dual Pressure of End-Users and Steel Scrap] March 24 News: SMM's upstream sentiment factor for high-grade NPI was 2.88, up 0.01 MoM, while the downstream sentiment factor for high-grade NPI was 1.59, down 0.04 MoM.