In H1 2026, SHFE aluminum prices exhibited a "high-then-low" pattern. In Q1, macro front, expectations for US Fed interest rate cuts intertwined with Middle East geopolitical conflicts, driving aluminum prices to surge to record highs; entering Q2, with the confirmation of the US strong-dollar policy stance, marginal easing of supply disruptions in the Middle East, and China's downstream consumption entering the off-season, the SHFE aluminum price center shifted lower continuously. Looking ahead to H2, macro front, the strong US dollar and liquidity concerns outside China will continue to weigh on nonferrous metal valuations; supply side, high aluminum prices are stimulating capacity release, with China's operating capacity expected to continue to increase MoM and new capacity in the Middle East and Indonesia gradually ramping up; demand side, domestic demand recovery is at a mild pace, and orders on hand for aluminum semis exports can still provide a floor, but expectations for new orders are weakening. Overall, the SHFE aluminum price center in H2 is expected to continue to shift lower, with the full year showing a "high-then-low" pattern.

The Aluminum Association has urged US policymakers to adopt an "all-of-the-above" strategy by expanding both primary and secondary aluminum production. The association also called for stronger scrap recycling, tighter trade enforcement, improved access to competitive power, tax incentives, and enhanced recycling infrastructure to strengthen domestic supply security and support growing demand across manufacturing, defense and energy sectors.

The gap between Q3 QMJP offers and actual transaction prices in the Japanese market has widened significantly. At present, the physical spot premium for primary aluminum ingots in Japan stands at USD 395 per metric ton, representing an increase of USD 43.5 per ton versus Q2. Nevertheless, overall market sentiment remains bearish, with spot transactions oscillating around the USD 385 per ton mark. The dual pressures from supply and demand fundamentals constitute the core driver behind the softening spot premium in Japan. On the supply side, market expectations for growing global aluminum supply surplus have intensified steadily. In addition, steady progress has been made in resuming aluminum production capacity in the Middle East, reinforcing expectations of rising overseas supply and capping upward room for spot premiums. On the demand side, Japan has entered its traditional seasonal lull in consumption as scheduled. Downstream end-users have slowed purchasing activity amid sluggish demand, gaining stronger bargaining power and shifting the supply-demand negotiation dynamic firmly in favor of buyers. As a result, the spread between QMJP ingot offers and physical transaction prices in Japan ranges from USD 65 to 70 per ton. Following the official release of Q3 QMJP pricing, spot offer prices in Japan firmed up temporarily, yet this failed to boost trading volumes, leaving the market locked in a stalemate between bulls and bears. Amid persistent expectations of expanded supply, the temporary firmness in spot prices is projected to give way to corrective declines. The bearish overall trend for Japanese aluminum ingot premiums in Q3 is unlikely to reverse. In other regional markets, trading activity in the spot aluminum ingot markets of Thailand and South Korea remained extremely muted this week with subdued overall liquidity. In the early week, ahead of the official publication of Q3 QMJP benchmarks, both traders and downstream manufacturers adopted a wait-and-see stance, limiting inventory restocking strictly to immediate operational needs. After the latest Q3 QMJP prices were released, benchmark levels fell short of pre-market consensus forecasts, prompting sellers across Southeast Asia and South Korea to lift their asking prices. Actual trading data, however, shows downstream buyers in Thailand and South Korea continued to purchase only to cover rigid demand, lacking substantive demand support. Spot premiums and discounts have thus remained range-bound at elevated levels. In the short term, resuming Middle Eastern smelter capacity and incremental overseas aluminum supply will continue to cap premium upside, compounded by weak seasonal end-user demand that adds further downward pressure to the market. Asian spot aluminum ingot premiums and discounts are therefore expected to maintain divergent, softening momentum, marked by volatile asking prices and persistently thin physical trading volumes in the near term.

Japan’s Q3 QMJP offers and transaction price spreads were wide, with actual spot premiums for Japanese aluminum ingot currently at $395/mt, up $43.5/mt QoQ from Q2. However, the overall market remained weak, with spot transactions consolidating around $380/mt. The core driver behind the weakening spot premiums in the Japanese market this time was dual pressure from supply and demand. Supply side, market expectations for incremental global aluminum supply release continued to heat up. In addition, the pace of production resumptions at Middle Eastern aluminum capacity progressed steadily, reinforcing expectations for overall supply release outside China and capping upside room for spot premiums. Demand side, the traditional consumption off-season in Japan arrived as expected, with downstream end-users slowing their procurement pace and demand lacking momentum. This strengthened downstream bargaining power, and the tug-of-war between upstream and downstream tilted decisively in favor of buyers. As a result, the spread between Japan QMJP aluminum ingot offers and actual transaction prices stood at $65-70/mt. After the official release of Q3 QMJP prices, Japan’s spot market offers briefly firmed, but this did not lead to a recovery in transactions, and a stalemate between bulls and bears persisted. Against the backdrop of strengthening supply release expectations, spot prices are expected to undergo a pullback adjustment after their brief firmness, making the overall weak pattern for Q3 Japanese aluminum ingot premiums difficult to reverse. Regional markets, spot aluminum ingot trading sentiment in Thailand and South Korea was very sluggish this week, with overall market activity low. Early in the week, as Q3 QMJP had not yet officially settled, traders and downstream enterprises generally held a wait-and-see sentiment, and the market was mainly characterized by just-in-time stockpiling. Following the official release of the latest Q3 QMJP prices, as the overall pricing fell short of earlier market expectations, sellers in Southeast Asia and South Korea raised their offers. However, judging from actual transactions, downstream enterprises in Thailand and South Korea still stuck to just-in-time procurement mode, with insufficient support from real market demand, and spot premiums maintained a pattern of consolidation at highs overall. In the short term, production resumptions in the Middle East and incremental supply release outside China will continue to cap the upside for premiums, while weak end-user demand during the off-season further compounds market pressure. Going forward, Asian aluminum ingot spot premiums are expected to continue a divergent and weak trend, with fluctuating offers and sluggish transactions remaining persistent features. [Data source statement: Except for publicly available information, all other data are processed by SMM based on public data, market communication, and SMM’s internal database models, and are for reference only; they do not constitute decision-making advice.] Data source: SMM

One year after the US raised Section 232 aluminum import tariffs from 25% to 50%, Canada remains the country's largest primary aluminum supplier. Canada exported about 2.9 million tones of aluminum in 2025, with approximately 2.3 million tones shipped to the US. While the higher tariffs lifted the US Midwest aluminum premium and encouraged Canadian producers to diversify exports toward Europe, they have not significantly reduced US dependence on Canadian aluminum. Industry estimates indicate that even restarting all idled US smelters would still leave a supply gap of around 3.6 million tones. Market participants expect North America's aluminum supply chain to become more diversified rather than fundamentally separated.

The Irish government is considering seeking EU financial support to keep Aughinish Alumina operating if further sanctions on Russia threaten the refinery's future due to its Russian ownership. Authorities are also assessing the possibility of temporary state control of the County Limerick refinery, one of Europe's largest alumina producers with 459 employees. Any disruption could affect aluminum supply chains serving the automotive and aerospace industries. Officials are also evaluating potential risks to bauxite supply if the current Russian owners halt shipments from Guinea. The move reflects growing efforts to balance Europe's industrial supply security with broader geopolitical sanctions against Russia.