![[SMM Analysis] China's ESS Sector is Poised to Consume 710,000 mt of Aluminum Semis in 2025](https://imgqn.smm.cn/production/admin/votes/imagesSDWVM20240508153016.png)
SMM, February 28th, Driven by the global clean energy transition, the energy storage industry is achieving steady growth. Its core value lies in effectively mitigating the inherent intermittency and volatility of renewable energy sources like wind and solar power, providing critical assurance for stable clean electricity output. This development trend will sustainably drive demand for key metals across the energy storage supply chain. As one of the core materials, aluminum applications in energy storage systems primarily focus on aluminum sheets, strips, foils, and extrusions. I. Scale of Aluminum Consumption in ESS According to SMM calculations, each 1GWh energy storage system consumes approximately 1,780 tons of aluminum , of which aluminum extrusions account for about 44%, aluminum sheets and strips account for about 39%, and aluminum foil accounts for about 18%. From the perspective of industry growth drivers, global energy storage cell production is entering a period of rapid growth: According to SMM estimates, the global demand for energy storage cells will be approximately 559 GWh in 2025, and is expected to reach 779 GWh in 2026, with a year-on-year increase of 39%; even as the base expands, the annual demand from 2027 to 2030 will still maintain a growth rate of over 20%. In terms of aluminum demand, Chinese enterprises dominate the energy storage market, driving increased domestic aluminum consumption. SMM research indicates China's energy storage battery cabinet shipments will reach approximately 400GWh in 2025, accounting for over 80% of global share. Based on SMM's calculation of 1,780 tons of aluminum per GWh for energy storage systems and global battery cabinet shipments, the global aluminum demand for energy storage systems in 2025 will reach 850,000 tons, with China consuming approximately 710,000 tons. Domestic demand for aluminum in energy storage is projected to increase by 280,000 tons in 2026. However, it should be noted that with the continuous iteration of large-cell technology, the unit consumption of aluminum structural components in energy storage systems has room for reduction. In the long term, there is still potential for optimizing aluminum consumption per unit. II. Calculation of Aluminum Profile Materials per Unit of ESS Due to design variations across different energy storage products, this section separates aluminum consumption calculations for energy storage cells from other system components . 1.Core Application Scenarios of Aluminum Materials in EES Aluminum materials, with advantages such as lightweight, corrosion resistance, and excellent processing performance, have been deeply integrated into the core components of ESS, with their main applications concentrated in three major areas: Energy Storage Cell Component: Primarily used for cell aluminum foil, aluminum casings, and tabs. Pack Component : Primarily used for battery trays, liquid cooling plates, battery end plates, and battery enclosures, etc. Energy Storage System Component: Main applications include energy storage system enclosures, radiators, etc. 2.Aluminum Consumption in Energy Storage Cells Aluminum usage in energy storage cells primarily involves battery foil, aluminum casings, and tabs. Currently, the aluminum consumption per cell is approximately 615t/GWh, with aluminum foil accounting for 300-330 t/GWh. 3.Aluminum Consumption in ESS Due to variations in technical approaches and application scenarios, different manufacturers employ distinct design solutions for energy storage systems. When calculating aluminum consumption, we use industry average values: In industrial, commercial, and residential energy storage projects, each rack is on average configured with 4.5 battery packs. In grid-side energy storage projects, each rack averages 8 battery packs, with each system containing an average of 12 rack. The aluminum components of the battery pack include the tray, liquid cooling plate, box body, and end plate. The structure of the battery tray is similar to that of new energy vehicle battery trays, but the product specifications are smaller and the cross-sectional design is more simplified. SMM calculates the aluminum consumption of a single battery pack based on the average weight data of components provided by mainstream aluminum production enterprises. In addition, the core equipment of the energy storage system, the power conversion system (PCS), and its supporting radiator also need to consume aluminum materials.While aluminum enclosures exist for ESS, market research indicates steel enclosures currently dominate the market, with aluminum enclosures holding less than 20% market share. The weight range per unit is from several hundred kilograms to 2 tons. Based on the above parameter calculations: the comprehensive aluminum consumption of industrial, commercial, and residential energy storage systems is 2030 tons/GWh,while for grid-side energy storage systems it is 1,720 tons/GWh. Weighted by the shipment share of different energy storage system types, the final comprehensive aluminum consumption for energy storage systems is calculated as 1,780 t/GWh. 4.Consumption Structure of Aluminum Materials in Energy Storage Systems From a production process perspective, the manufacturing methods for core components such as aluminum casings and liquid cooling plates encompass multiple pathways including sheet metal stamping, profile processing, and casting. This section breaks down the consumption structure of aluminum material categories in energy storage systems based on the proportion of mainstream process applications: aluminum extrusions account for approximately 44%, aluminum sheets and strips account for approximately 39%, and aluminum foil accounts for approximately 18%.
Feb 28, 2026 13:42![[SMM Analysis] From Data Ghosts to Border Gridlock: Who Pays the Price for CBAM’s Hubris?](https://imgqn.smm.cn/production/admin/votes/imageshZkuj20260223163450.jpeg)
The champagne corks in Brussels may have popped too soon. On January 14, 2026, the European Commission released a soaring press statement celebrating the official entry of the Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism (CBAM) into its "Definitive Regime." In the official narrative, this was a triumph of digitalization: over 10,000 customs declarations verified in real-time, with the system running as smooth as silk. However, if we shift the lens from the desks of Brussels to the customs brokers in Hamburg, the steel traders in Rotterdam, and the customs officials currently drowning in paperwork across the continent, a starkly different picture emerges. What we are witnessing is a carefully whitewashed administrative "cardiac arrest." Forensic-level investigation into the first seven weeks of 2026 reveals that the landing of CBAM is far from the glitz claimed by officials. On the contrary, plagued by suspected low-level data errors, catastrophic approval backlogs, and teetering temporary patches, the mechanism is currently mired in a dual crisis of legality and operations. I. The Absurd "Default Values": When Taiwan’s Stainless Steel "Became" Indonesian Coal If one were to find a single representative footnote for this chaos, the "Default Value Controversy" would be the undisputed choice. For importers unable to obtain precise carbon emission data from upstream factories, the EU’s official "default values" are a lifeline. This was supposed to be a baseline derived from rigorous scientific calculation. Yet, in the 2,400-page document released on December 31, 2025, mere hours before the new rules took effect, industry experts witnessed a jaw-dropping scene. This is not merely a margin of error; it looks more like a metallurgical farce. Industry bodies have pointed out that when the Directorate-General for Taxation and Customs Union (DG TAXUD) established the carbon emission default values for stainless steel from the Taiwan region, the data tables contained suspected structural errors, bearing traces of a "copy-paste" job from Indonesian data structures. The consequence? In the physical world, processing a steel slab into a precision tube requires significant electricity, meaning the finished product should logically have higher emissions than the semi-finished one. Yet, in the table published by the EU, industry players have flagged phenomena where "Taiwanese semi-finished stainless steel allegedly emits more than the finished product," vehemently questioning its rationality. In metallurgy, this is impossible; in a bureaucratic Excel sheet, it became legal reference. More fatally, Taiwan’s stainless steel industry relies primarily on Electric Arc Furnaces (EAF) and scrap recycling, resulting in a relatively low carbon footprint. In contrast, the Indonesian stainless steel industry is highly dependent on Nickel Pig Iron (NPI) and coal-fired power, yielding extremely high emissions. This suspected "slip of the hand" by the EU is akin to forcefully assigning the calorie count of a rich braised pork belly to a light garden salad. This has directly resulted in European buyers of Taiwanese stainless steel facing artificially inflated financial costs. II. A 27% Pass Rate: The 15,000-Strong Army Blocked at the Gate If data controversies are "soft tissue damage," the backlog in administrative approval is a fatal "compound fracture." The core rule of the CBAM definitive stage is simple: without "authorized declarant" status, you cannot import. This means every company wishing to ship a screw or an aluminum sheet into Europe must first secure an "entry ticket." The reality is brutal. According to the Commission’s official press release, by January 7, over 12,000 operators across the EU had submitted applications, with just over 4,100 approved (a pass rate of roughly 34%). However, industry estimates suggest that by late February, applications swelled to approximately 15,000, causing the pass rate to slide to around 27%. Where did the massive remainder go? They are stuck in the overwhelmed approval systems of National Competent Authorities (NCAs). In Germany, due to the deluge of applications, logistics giant DSV issued a public notice stating it could not support clients with CBAM authorization and registration, bluntly forcing thousands of SMEs to crash into the complex reporting system like headless flies. In France, the labyrinthine digital authentication process has turned the application into a maze only a hacker could navigate. To prevent European ports from paralysis, the EU was forced to administer a "painkiller": Customs Code Y238. This is a temporary "hall pass" allowing companies that applied before March 31 but have not yet been approved to keep goods moving for now. But make no mistake, this merely lengthens the fuse on the bomb. III. The Strategy of Silence and the Risk of "Retroactive Reckoning" Faced with industry skepticism, Brussels seems to have chosen the oldest PR strategy: silence. Although industry giants like the Gerber Group issued detailed technical warnings as early as January 9, pointing out the absurdity of the Taiwan/Indonesia data, the industry notes that as of late February, no official "Corrigendum" has been issued to legally revise the default values. The updated Excel version released on February 13 merely added a disclaimer: "information only." This rigid attitude transfers all risk to the enterprises. For companies currently relying on the Y238 temporary arrangement, the real danger is not "whether goods are released," but "whether they will be retroactively penalized." Competent authorities have publicly warned that if an authorization application is ultimately rejected, member states can, under Article 26 (2)/(2a) of the CBAM Regulation, retroactively penalize goods imported during the waiting period. Such fines can, in certain cases, reach 3 to 5 times the standard penalty. In other words, this is not a procedural flaw; it is a compliance risk that could land directly on cash flows and balance sheets. Conclusion: Who Pays the Price for Hubris? CBAM was supposed to be the crown jewel of the EU’s climate ambition, a lighthouse for global green trade. But the opening scene of 2026 makes it look more like an unfinished Tower of Babel. From the "data ghosts" haunting the industry to the severely backlogged approval channels, this "hard landing" exposes a chasm between regulatory ambition and administrative capability. For European importers, every day now is an exercise in navigating through fog. They are forced to calculate not just carbon emissions, but the cost of policy uncertainty. And for the European Commission, if it cannot step out of this arrogant "silence" and clarify these glaring operational controversies, what CBAM loses will be more than just data accuracy; it will be the trust of its global trading partners.
Feb 23, 2026 16:33On May 10-11, 2025, US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent and State Department Trade Representative Jamieson Greer held a new round of tariff negotiations with Chinese Vice Premier He Lifeng in Geneva. Both sides agreed to reduce EO 14257 "reciprocal tariffs" to a baseline of 10% within 90 days and suspend further increases. Additionally, the 24% tariff was suspended for 90 days. Since the reciprocal tariffs did not cover aluminum and aluminum semis already covered by Section 232, the above agreement did not change the current tariffs on aluminum semis exported to the US. The Section 301 tariffs imposed during Trump's first term targeting China, the Section 232 tariffs in 2025 to protect the US steel and aluminum industry, and the 20% "fentanyl tariff" (Executive Order 14195 and 14228) imposed on all goods of Chinese (including Hong Kong) origin under the pretext of "combating the synthetic drug supply chain" were not addressed in this negotiation. So, how many layers of tariffs are currently imposed on aluminum semis directly exported from China to the US? What are the final tariff rates for each product? MFN Most Favored Nation tariff —the "first threshold" universally applicable to all WTO members; Section 301 tax surcharge on China —only applicable to aluminum semis of Chinese origin, with rates of 25% or 7.5% depending on the list; Section 232 steel and aluminum tariffs —a 25% tariff imposed by the US on all imported aluminum and aluminum semis starting from March 12, 2025; "Fentanyl" tariff —a 20% tariff on all goods of Chinese origin; AD/CVD trade remedy measures —anti-dumping (AD) and countervailing (CVD) deposits imposed on specific categories such as extrusions, aluminum sheets, and aluminum foil. Current effective anti-dumping product summary: *AD/CVD items are subject to the latest announcements by the US Department of Commerce and the International Trade Commission. Typical product quick reference: In 2024, aluminum semis directly exported from China to the US accounted for only 4.08% of total exports, so the tariff war had a relatively small impact on direct aluminum semis exports. However, some end-user finished products not under the 76 code, such as home appliances, electronics, and auto parts, if not listed under Section 301 or Section 232, will be subject to the 10% tariff agreed upon in the US-China negotiations and the 20% fentanyl tariff, and the 24% suspension for 90 days may stimulate a rush to export, thereby boosting aluminum demand in the short term. SMM will focus on the recent downstream production and order situation.
May 13, 2025 18:34From May 10 to 11, US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent and US Trade Representative Jamieson Greer held a new round of tariff negotiations with Chinese Vice Premier He Lifeng in Geneva. Both sides agreed to uniformly reduce the EO 14257 "reciprocal tariff" to a 10% baseline within 90 days and suspend further increases. Additionally, the implementation of the remaining 24% tariff was suspended for 90 days. The Section 232 tariffs , which are designed to protect the US domestic steel and aluminum industries, as well as the Section 301 tariffs targeting China, were not addressed in this round of negotiations. Therefore, the 25% tariff imposed by the US on steel and aluminum products remains unchanged , but this round of negotiations has left room for further negotiations on possible "substantial tax reductions". It is worth noting that the US has also retained a 20% "fentanyl tariff" specifically targeting Chinese goods valued at less than US$800 entering the US through international mail or express delivery channels , in an effort to combat the smuggling of chemical precursors. Industrial-grade aluminum semis are typically cleared through regular sea or air freight customs declarations, so this tax surcharge has no substantial impact on the tax burden of aluminum industry exports . So, how many layers of tariffs are currently imposed on aluminum semis directly exported from China to the US? What are the final tariff rates for each product? Currently, there are five main layers of tariffs: MFN (Most Favored Nation) tariff rates – the "first threshold" universally applicable to all WTO members; Section 301 additional tariffs on China – only targeting aluminum semis of Chinese origin, with tariff rates of 25% or 7.5% depending on the list; Section 232 steel and aluminum tariffs – starting from March 12, 2025, the US will impose a 25% tariff on all imported aluminum and aluminum semis; EO 14257 reciprocal tariff – currently exempted , temporarily set at 0%; AD/CVD trade remedy measures – imposing anti-dumping (AD) and countervailing duty (CVD) deposits on specific categories such as extruded profiles, aluminum sheets, and aluminum foil. Tariff Tier Current Tariff Rate Scope of Application (Typical HTS) Cumulative with Other Tiers? Tier 1 MFN (Column 1-General) Aluminum and aluminum semis (7601-7609) 0–5% Aluminum wheel hubs 2.5% 7,601-7,609, 7,610-7,616, 8,708.7 Must Tier 2 Section 301 tax surcharge on China List 1-3: 25% (effective from May 10, 2019) List 4A: 7.5% (effective from February 14, 2020) List 1-3: Most of 7,601-7,609; List 4A: Some products of 7,610-7,616; Aluminum wheel hubs 8708.70.45 fall under List 3 Yes (only of Chinese origin) Tier 3 Section 232—General 25% tax surcharge on steel and aluminum 25% (effective from March 12, 2025) 7,601-7,609 + 7,616.99.51/70, etc. Yes Section 232—Auto parts (including aluminum wheel hubs) 25% (effective from May 3, 2025) Annex I lists 8,708.70, etc. Yes Tier 4 EO 14257 reciprocal tariff Exemptions for aluminum and auto parts = 0% — — Tier 5 AD/CVD trade remedies (anti-dumping and countervailing duties) See the table below Extruded materials, general alloy plates, foil, disposable meal boxes, etc. Yes Summary of currently effective anti-dumping/countervailing products: Product AD Bond CVD Bond Federal Register Notice Profiles 7,604, 7,608 33–86% 7–374% A-570-967 / C-570-968 General alloy aluminum plates 7,606 49.50% 51% A-570-073 / C-570-074 Household aluminum foil ≤0.2 mm 7,607 56–106% 17–81% A-570-053 / C-570-054 Disposable aluminum meal boxes 7,615.1, 7,615.9 94–168% — A-570-157 (final determination in 2025) Quick reference for typical products: Product Category (HTS Examples) MFN Section 232 Section 301 EO 14257 AD/CVD* Total Nominal Tariff Unwrought Aluminum Ingot (7601) 0% 25% (Aluminum) 25% 0% None 50% Aluminum Extrusion (7604/7608) 5% 25% (Aluminum) 25% 0% AD 33–86% CVD 7–242% ≥ 88% (Median) Common Alloy Aluminum Sheet and Coil (7606) 3% 25% (Aluminum) 25% 0% AD 49.5% CVD 46.48% ~ 149% Aluminum Foil ≤0.2 mm (7607) 0–5.8% 25% (Aluminum) 25% 0% AD 48–106% CVD 17–81% ≥ 117% Aluminum Heat Sinks/Structural Parts (7610, 7615, 7616) 2.5–5% 25% (Derivatives) 7.5% (List 4A) 0% New AD 94–168% (Disposable Meal Boxes, etc., A-570-157, Final Determination on March 11, 2025) ≥ 137% Aluminum Alloy Automobile Wheel Hubs (8708.70.45/.60) 2.50% 25% (Auto Parts) 25% 0% Under Investigation, None for Now 52.50% *AD/CVD items are subject to the latest announcements from the US Department of Commerce and the International Trade Commission. In 2024, China's direct exports of aluminum semis to the US accounted for only 4.08% of total exports. Therefore, the tariff war had a relatively small impact on the direct exports of aluminum semis. However, for some terminal finished products, such as home appliances, electronics, and auto parts, if they are not included in the Section 301 or Section 232 lists, they will be subject to the 10% tariff under the current Sino-US negotiation agreement. Additionally, the 24% 90-day suspension window may stimulate a rush in exports, thereby boosting aluminum demand in the short term. SMM will closely monitor recent downstream production and order situations.
May 13, 2025 15:37Recently, Sichuan Chimaite Aluminum Industry Co., Ltd. was officially established against the backdrop of Jiuda Group's continuous deepening of its industrial layout and promotion of high-quality development. As a subsidiary of Jiuda Group, Chimaite Aluminum Industry will focus on the domestic and overseas sales of high-performance aluminum semis. Its main products cover multiple categories, including aluminum coils, aluminum sheets, aluminum discs, aluminum rods, etc., and are widely used in various industries such as construction, transportation, new energy, power electronics, and more.
Apr 30, 2025 23:44Recently, Sichuan Chimaite Aluminum Industry Co., Ltd. was officially established against the backdrop of Jiuda Group's continuous deepening of its industrial layout and promotion of high-quality development. As a subsidiary of Jiuda Group, Chimaite Aluminum will focus on the domestic and overseas sales of high-performance aluminum semis. Its main products cover multiple categories, including aluminum coils, aluminum sheets, aluminum discs, aluminum rods, etc., and are widely used in various industries such as construction, transportation, new energy, power electronics, and more.
Apr 30, 2025 23:44