[SMM Aluminum Flash] According to multiple media reports, following the signing of a memorandum of understanding between the U.S. and Iran, prices in the international energy and metals markets fluctuated significantly. WTI crude oil futures fell by over 5%, while European natural gas prices plunged more than 10%. In the metals market, LME aluminum prices declined during the evening session, dropping over 5% to $3,357/mt. China's most-traded SHFE aluminum contract was also affected, with open interest rising by over 14,000 lots and the price falling by as much as 2% to 23,730 yuan/mt. Market concerns now center on persistently high operating aluminum capacity in China, while new and resumed aluminum capacity outside China will also put pressure on LME aluminum prices.

SMM June 15 news: In the morning session, the SHFE aluminum 2606 contract fluctuated, with aluminum prices holding at relatively high levels. However, high aluminum prices dampened downstream purchasing sentiment, pushing quotes and transaction prices lower. Mainstream spot transaction prices were at a discount of 90–100 yuan/mt against the SHFE aluminum 2607 contract. Today, the selling sentiment index in East China stood at 2.96, flat MoM, while the purchasing sentiment index came in at 2.76, down 0.06 MoM. During the night session, aluminum futures prices rose again. Before the opening, quotes in the central China market had already shown a softening trend. After the opening, absolute prices pulled back, but downstream processing enterprises largely stayed on the sidelines, leading to weak purchasing sentiment. Suppliers showed little willingness to hold prices firm, and quotes declined steadily. Ultimately, actual transaction prices in central China centered around a discount of 170–190 yuan/mt against the SHFE aluminum 2607 contract. Today, the selling sentiment index in central China was 2.92, up 0.01 MoM, while the purchasing sentiment index was 2.20, down 0.01 MoM. On the inventory front, aluminum ingot inventory in major consuming areas fell by 0.7 MoM today, with destocking mainly driven by Guangdong and Wuxi.

[Domestic and overseas aluminum prices see a modest simultaneous recovery; China's destocking stabilizes with limited upside room] SMM maintains its assessment that inventory will drop to around 1.28 million mt by late June, and is expected to further approach 1.2 million mt by end-June or early July. The futures market sees short-term stabilization signals, but high domestic inventory pressure remains relatively evident, which is expected to limit the upside room for domestic aluminum prices. In the short term, domestic aluminum prices are expected to mainly fluctuate and consolidate.

China’s aluminum ingot inventory, after hitting a peak not seen in nearly three years in 2026, accelerated its pullback this week. According to SMM statistics, as of June 11, aluminum ingot inventory in major Chinese consumption areas was reported at 1.312 million mt, having cumulatively destocked by nearly 160,000 mt from the early-May high of around 1.47 million mt. The single-week decline this week reached 48,000 mt, clearly steepening the destocking slope...

According to SMM data, China's aluminum billet inventory in major consumption regions fell to 154,500 mt on June 11, down 8,000 mt from last Thursday and down 5,500 mt from Monday, with the destocking pace further slowing. From the perspective of warehouse withdrawals, aluminum billet withdrawals recorded 51,700 mt during June 1–8, down 4,100 mt WoW.

1. Thailand & South Korea Markets: Prices climb steadily, bolstered by upbeat expectations for long-term contract premiums CIF quotations and transaction prices of aluminum ingots in Thailand and South Korea moved higher overall this week. The backwardation of LME spot aluminum against the three-month contract narrowed notably. Market optimism over higher Q3 QMJP long-term contract prices continued to build. Sellers lifted spot quotes amid rising costs, pushing transaction prices up accordingly during the week. End-product manufacturers in Southeast Asia and South Korea have extensively adopted Chinese exported aluminum products as raw material substitutes, curbing import demand for primary aluminum ingots. Most downstream players only conduct sporadic restocking based on immediate needs, with little willingness for large-scale inventory buildup. The market has therefore seen a trend of strong prices amid sluggish trading activity . 2. Japan Market: Tight spot supply drives sharp premium hikes; buyers become more price-tolerant Japan’s MJP spot premiums kept climbing this week, mainly driven by acute domestic spot shortages. The Middle East, Japan’s major source of imported aluminum ingots, has delivered lower shipments year-on-year due to geopolitical tensions, shipping disruptions and constrained delivery schedules. No other producing regions can make up the supply gap on a meaningful scale, keeping domestic tradable spot inventories at persistently low levels. Faced with tight supply, Japanese end-users have softened their price stance and grown more receptive to spot cargoes with steep premiums. Meanwhile, bullish expectations for Q3 long-term contract premiums have spilled over to the spot market. The combined factors have pushed Japan’s spot premiums to sharply elevated levels.