[Aluminum Divergence Consolidation Recovery Inside and Outside China; Middle East Tensions Ease, Disturbing Aluminum Price Risk Premium] Overall, recent improvement on the macro front, interest rate hike expectations remaining on hold and easing the marginal constraints on the nonferrous metals sector, along with the continued rise in the proportion of liquid aluminum in China, have supported aluminum prices. However, the continued rollout of long-term aluminum capacity outside China, weak traditional end-use demand in China during the traditional off-season, and disturbances from Middle East geopolitical uncertainties are expected to result in aluminum prices consolidating on a strong note.

[Aluminum Inventory Buildup and Long-Term Capacity Commissioning; Geopolitical Premium Underpins Aluminum Price Rebound with Limited Room] Overall, the macro front has improved recently. The marginal constraint on the non-ferrous metals sector from expectations for US Fed interest rate hikes staying put has weakened. The proportion of liquid aluminum in China has continued to rise, and the geopolitical risk premium in the Middle East persists. These factors have jointly underpinned aluminum prices, and short-term market confidence has recovered somewhat. However, long-term aluminum capacity continues to come online outside China, traditional end-use demand in China remains weak during the traditional off-season, coupled with fluctuating expectations for US Fed interest rate hikes outside China and ongoing uncertainties in the Middle East geopolitical situation. Aluminum prices are expected to consolidate on a strong note, but upside resistance remains.

[Central Bank Sends Easing Signals; Supply-Demand and Geopolitical Games Limit Aluminum Price Upside Room] Our comprehensive assessment shows that the macro front has improved recently, with the marginal constraints of interest rate hike expectations on the nonferrous metals sector continuing to ease. The proportion of liquid aluminum in China has kept rising. China’s central bank will implement accommodative monetary policies, step up counter-cyclical adjustments, and redouble efforts to expand domestic demand to steer the economy toward sustained, more favorable, and broader-based development. The persistent geopolitical risk premium in the Middle East has jointly underpinned aluminum prices, significantly boosting short-term market confidence. However, the ongoing commissioning of long-term aluminum capacity outside China, the recent softness in traditional end-use demand in China, combined with the repeated shifts in expectations for US Fed interest rate hikes and the uncertainties triggered by geopolitical turmoil in the Middle East, continue to exert certain pressure on the upside room for aluminum prices.

The SEA secondary aluminum market remained mixed this week. Aluminum scrap prices were largely stable, while ADC12 remained under pressure due to weak downstream demand. Buying activity stayed cautious, although UBC scrap held firm on tighter supply and steady recycling demand. Market attention also shifted to the EU's Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism (CBAM), with growing focus on carbon reporting, recycled content, and supply chain traceability as compliance requirements continue to evolve.

[Marginal Easing in Expectations for US Fed Rate Hikes, Continued Aluminum Destocking Underpins Market] Based on a comprehensive assessment, the macro front has improved recently; marginal constraints from rate hike expectations on the nonferrous metals sector continue to ease; the proportion of liquid aluminum in China keeps rising; the Middle East geopolitical risk premium continues to accumulate, while aluminum ingot destocking continues in China, collectively underpinning aluminum prices; and market confidence has strengthened markedly in the short term. However, the continuous rollout of long-term aluminum capacity outside China, weak traditional end-use demand in China, coupled with recurring expectations for US Fed rate hikes overseas and disturbances from uncertainties in the Middle East geopolitical situation, still exert some pressure on the upside room for aluminum prices. In the short term, aluminum prices consolidate on a strong note.

[SMM Aluminum Price Weekly Review: Two Major Factors Boosted Market Confidence, Short-Term Aluminum Price Maintained Consolidation on a Strong Note]