SMM, March 19: This week, Chinese aluminum fluoride enterprises mainly focused on order deliveries, with aluminum fluoride prices holding steady. As of now, SMM aluminum fluoride prices closed at 10,180-10,450 yuan/mt; cryolite prices also held steady, with SMM cryolite quoted at 7,000-8,500 yuan/mt. Raw material side: Prices of key raw materials for aluminum fluoride continued to rise. Specifically, the delivery-to-factory price of 97% fluorite powder remained stable, currently concentrated in the range of 3,150-3,450 yuan/mt. During the Two Sessions, mining at northern mines was restricted, leading to a temporary tight supply of fluorite raw ore; some beneficiation plants showed strong sentiment to hold prices firm due to relatively low inventory levels, and downstream hydrofluoric acid enterprises slightly recovered in operating demand after resuming work following the holiday. SMM expected fluorite prices to hold up well in the short term. Aluminum hydroxide prices edged up steadily, with the current SMM weighted average price at 1,673 yuan/mt, up 1.52% WoW. The sulphuric acid market remained firm, and prices continued to rise amid higher costs, tightening supply, and strong demand. Overall, the raw material side of aluminum fluoride moved higher, and production pressure on enterprises increased significantly. Supply side showed a pattern of rigid cost increases, deeply pressured profitability, and weak willingness to operate. Recently, prices of key raw materials such as fluorite, sulphuric acid, and aluminum hydroxide continued to rise, significantly pushing up aluminum fluoride production costs. The industry was caught in a squeeze from both costs and selling prices, with enterprises generally operating at a loss. Production enthusiasm was hit hard, overall industry operating rates remained in the doldrums, and actual supply increases were limited. On the demand side, operating aluminum capacity downstream remained stable, forming a rigid demand base for aluminum fluoride; however, enterprises mainly restocked for rigid demand and purchased as needed, with cautious procurement and insufficient demand elasticity to boost prices. Brief comment: This week, prices of key raw materials such as fluorite and sulphuric acid held up well, and the cost side continued to rise, significantly increasing production pressure on enterprises; in March, the aluminum fluoride tender price of a downstream benchmark enterprise was finalized, down 200-370 yuan/mt MoM, and the spot market also moved in the doldrums under its guidance. At present, the industry is facing a two-way squeeze of rising costs and selling prices under pressure, narrowing profit margins and dampening production enthusiasm. Fundamentally: Cost side: fluorite and sulphuric acid prices remained firm, providing clear bottom support for aluminum fluoride. Supply side: industry operating rates stayed in the doldrums, with no significant increase in production, and overall supply and demand remained subdued. Demand side: rigid demand from aluminum remained stable, but there was no obvious incremental growth, and procurement was mainly as needed. Overall, the strong support effect from fluorite and sulphuric acid on the cost side became more prominent, coupled with low industry operating rates and shrinking supply. Aluminum fluoride's price center is expected to move steadily higher next month, showing a mild strengthening trend. Going forward, close and continuous attention should be paid to dynamic changes on the raw material cost side, as well as marginal adjustments in the procurement pace of downstream aluminum enterprises.

[SMM Aluminum Flash News] Entering March, support from raw materials such as fluorite and sulphuric acid remained strong. Rising raw material costs increased production pressure, while falling downstream tender prices weighed on selling prices. Enterprises’ profit margins were squeezed from both sides, dampening production enthusiasm. Overall, although the dual-weak supply-demand pattern has not yet improved significantly, higher fluorite and sulphuric acid prices on the cost side have provided strong support; therefore, aluminum fluoride prices are expected to strengthen next month.

Overall, cost support remains, but has not yet formed strong upward momentum, combined with aluminum enterprises' strong push for lower prices, aluminum fluoride prices in March are expected to be mainly stable with a slight weakening trend.

[SMM Aluminum Express] Current raw material prices, such as fluorite and sulphuric acid, are stable, providing strong bottom support for aluminum fluoride prices. Supply side, the spot market is ample, and with expectations of enterprises gradually resuming production after the holiday, future supply is expected to continue increasing. Demand side, the rebound is only driven by rigid restocking demand from the aluminum industry, lacking significant positive boosts. Overall, cost support remains, but no strong upward momentum has formed yet. Combined with aluminum enterprises' strong push for lower prices, aluminum fluoride prices in March are expected to be mainly stable with a slight weakening trend.

SMM February 28 news: According to SMM data, the average tax-inclusive full cost of China's aluminum industry in February 2026 fell 0.9% MoM and dropped 5.7% YoY. During the period, alumina raw material costs and auxiliary material costs declined, and the total cost pulled back slightly. The average SMM A00 spot price (January 26–February 25) in February was largely stable, and aluminum profit margins expanded to 7,707 yuan/mt. If the industry calculates based on the monthly average price, 100% of domestic operating aluminum capacity was profitable in February. Cost breakdown: Alumina raw material side : SMM data showed the average SMM alumina index in February was 2,621 yuan/mt (January 26–February 25), down 1.7% MoM. Production cuts at alumina plants during the month shifted inventory to destocking, but after the holiday, some aluminum smelters proactively reduced inventory, resulting in actual demand being lower than theoretical demand. Prices saw only a slight rebound by month-end, and the monthly average price dropped MoM. Entering March, alumina prices face both bullish and bearish factors. On one hand, operating alumina capacity is expected to decline MoM; on the other hand, aluminum smelters’ proactive destocking is expected to reduce demand. Overall, alumina raw material prices are projected to change by a relatively small margin. Auxiliary material market side : Both prebaked anode and fluoride salt prices pulled back in February. In March, prebaked anode and aluminum fluoride prices are expected to maintain a slight downward trend, and auxiliary material costs are projected to decrease. Electricity price side : Electricity prices were generally stable in February, with slight declines in some regions, leading to a small drop in the national average aluminum power cost. Entering March, electricity prices are expected to remain largely stable, and aluminum power costs are projected to hold steady. Overall, SMM expects the weighted average tax-inclusive full cost of China's aluminum industry in March 2026 to be largely stable, averaging around 15,750–16,150 yuan/mt.

SMM February 26: This week, aluminum fluoride enterprises focused on fulfilling orders. Approaching month-end, the market awaited new price guidance, resulting in sluggish trading activity and stable prices. To date, SMM aluminum fluoride prices closed at 10,480-10,750 yuan/mt; cryolite prices remained largely stable, with SMM cryolite quotes at 7,000-9,000 yuan/mt. Raw material side: Prices of core raw materials for aluminum fluoride were largely stable. Specifically, delivery-to-factory prices for 97% fluorite powder held steady, currently concentrated in the range of 3,100-3,400 yuan/mt. Supply side, production halts in north China due to low temperatures and the Chinese New Year holiday reduced market supply. Coupled with routine environmental and safety supervision, small and medium-sized mines experienced unstable operations. Imports were mainly medium and low-grade, with limited high-grade supply, prolonging structural tightness. Although supply contracted, high inventory in some regions and sluggish shipments exerted some downward pressure on prices. Demand side remained weak, with core downstream hydrofluoric acid industry operating at low rates, resulting in weak digestion of fluorite powder and lack of strong momentum. Current market transactions were sluggish, and prices saw no major adjustments. Aluminum hydroxide prices held steady, with the SMM weighted average price at 1,611 yuan/mt, flat MoM. The sulfuric acid market continued to fluctuate at highs, providing some cost support for aluminum fluoride. Overall, rigid cost support for aluminum fluoride raw materials remained. Supply-demand side: In terms of supply, some previously idled enterprises in the domestic aluminum fluoride industry gradually prepared to resume production after the holiday, raising expectations for supply recovery. However, some enterprises conducted planned maintenance, and high costs constrained production enthusiasm. Industry-wide operating rates remained in the doldrums, with relatively ample spot supply in the market. Demand side, operating capacity in the downstream aluminum industry stayed stable, providing rigid support for aluminum fluoride demand. Post-holiday, downstream enterprises gradually resumed procurement pace, and market activity recovered. However, cautious procurement sentiment led enterprises to restock as needed and maintain low inventory, resulting in limited actual purchases and insufficient support for aluminum fluoride price increases. Brief comment: Current stable trends in raw material prices such as fluorite and sulfuric acid provided strong bottom support for aluminum fluoride prices. Supply side, ample spot supply and post-holiday production resumptions were expected to increase supply further. Demand side, only rigid restocking from the aluminum industry drove a slight rebound, lacking significant boosts. Considering multiple factors, SMM expected aluminum fluoride prices to fluctuate rangebound in the short term. Future monitoring should focus on dynamic changes in raw material costs and marginal adjustments in procurement pace of downstream aluminum enterprises.