SMM, March 20: Imports: According to data from the General Administration of Customs, China’s primary aluminum imports were about 189,000 mt in January, down 0.1% MoM and up 17.1% YoY; in February, China’s primary aluminum imports were about 202,000 mt, up 6.6% MoM and up 0.7% YoY. In January-February 2026, China’s cumulative primary aluminum imports totaled about 391,000 mt, up 8.0% YoY. Exports: According to data from the General Administration of Customs, China’s primary aluminum exports were about 13,000 mt in January, down 64.6% MoM and up 56.6% YoY; in February, China’s primary aluminum exports were about 10,000 mt, down 24.6% MoM and up 187.9% YoY. In January-February, cumulative primary aluminum exports totaled about 23,000 mt, up about 94.8% YoY. Net imports: According to data from the General Administration of Customs, China’s net primary aluminum imports were 176,000 mt in January, up 15.9% MoM and up 14.9% YoY; in February, China’s net primary aluminum imports were 192,000 mt, up 9.0% MoM and down 2.6% YoY. In January-February, China’s cumulative net primary aluminum imports were about 367,000 mt, up 5.0% YoY. (The above import and export data are based on HS codes 76011090 and 76011010.) Although China’s net primary aluminum imports maintained positive growth in January-February 2026, expectations of a sharp rise in regional aluminum premiums outside China will challenge this situation. As of March 20, SMM’s Japan MJP spot premiums for aluminum ingot stood at $255/mt, up 45.7% from month-end February. Currently, some market participants were quoting Japan MJP CIF premiums for Q2 at around $350-353/mt, up about 80% from $195/mt in Q1; the US Midwest DDP aluminum premium stood at 105.25¢/lb, equivalent to $2,110/mt. As of March 13, Europe’s P1020A aluminum ingot duty-paid premiums stood at $470/mt, up about 27.0% from month-end February, while Europe’s P1020A aluminum ingot duty-unpaid premiums stood at $375/mt, up 27.2% from month-end February. The sharp rise in regional aluminum premiums outside China is expected to divert some aluminum originally planned to flow into China, and China’s net aluminum imports are expected to decline YoY in 2026. The reason for this phenomenon lies in expectations of a contraction in aluminum supply outside China caused by reduced aluminum supply in the Middle East. As of March 20, Qatar Aluminum announced that it would maintain a 60% operating rate, involving 260,000 mt of shut capacity; Bahrain Aluminum announced the shutdown of Lines 1-3, involving about 310,000 mt of capacity. In total, 570,000 mt of aluminum capacity in the Middle East has been affected. Iran is at the center of the conflict, and the stability of its production faces severe challenges. In addition, some raw and auxiliary materials in the Middle East rely on imports, and the geopolitical conflict in the region has affected passage through the Strait of Hormuz, to some extent undermining raw material supply stability at certain aluminum plants. At present, aluminum plants in Saudi Arabia and Turkey have domestic upstream bauxite and alumina support and can achieve self-sufficiency, with room for exports; Bahrain Aluminum and Qatar Aluminum rely entirely on imported alumina, while the UAE has 2.5 million mt of alumina capacity, but its bauxite relies 100% on imports. Although Oman’s aluminum plants also depend on imported raw materials, their geographic location is outside the Strait of Hormuz, so the level of risk is relatively low. If transport routes remain closed and no new routes can be opened, aluminum production in the Middle East is expected to be significantly affected. However, according to the latest foreign media reports, Bahrain Aluminum is exporting 40-60% of its aluminum ingots through Saudi Arabia’s Port of Jeddah, with an overland transport distance of 1,400 kilometers, and UAE’s Emirates Global Aluminium is attempting to import alumina raw materials through ports in Oman. If new transport routes are opened, the production reduction risk at aluminum plants in the Middle East is expected to decline markedly. Going forward, continued attention should be paid to production developments at aluminum plants in the Middle East, transport route conditions, and trends in LME aluminum inventory.

[SMM Aluminum Express News] The Aluminium Association of India (AAI), representing major domestic producers, has urged the government to exempt aluminum products from the recent 50% cut in RoDTEP (Remission of Duties and Taxes on Exported Products) rates. Previously, aluminum exports qualified for ~3% RoDTEP benefits for Domestic Tariff Area (DTA) units and ~2.2% for SEZ units. AAI warned that the cut could strain exports amid rising global trade barriers (e.g., tariffs, CBAM), shrinking opportunities, and competition. It also called for 2026-27 RoDTEP rates to be set based on actual unrebated taxes borne by exporters, ensuring fair compensation for both DTA and SEZ units. This aims to maintain competitiveness for Indian aluminum in international markets.

[SMM Aluminum Express News] Dak Nong Aluminum Company – TKV (DNA), based in Lam Dong province, exported its first alumina shipment of the Lunar New Year Binh Ngo 2026 (Year of the Horse) to Japan on February 23, 2026. The ~14,000-tonne cargo, packed in 1-ton flat-bottom bags, was loaded onto the MV HTK LUCKY at Go Dau port (loading started 2 pm on Feb 22) and delivered to customer Marubeni (Japan). To meet the schedule, DNA prepared early: 6,032 tons stored at Go Dau port and 26,100 tons packaged at the factory.

[Petroleum Coke Prices Rise Again] Due to an increase in aluminum exports in traditional industries, prices have risen, leading to a slight rise in petroleum coke prices. Daqing Petrochemical has announced that the price of Daqing Petrochemical's green coke will be increased by 50 yuan/mt to 3,600 yuan/mt in June, effective from 00:00 on the 13th. Fushun Petrochemical has announced that, effective from 00:00 on June 13th, the price will be adjusted to 3,750 yuan/mt, an increase of 50 yuan/mt.

According to data from the General Administration of Customs, China's exports of unwrought aluminum and aluminum semis reached 547,000 mt in May 2025, up 5.60% MoM and down 3.19% YoY. From January to May, cumulative exports totaled 2.431 million mt, a decrease of 5.1% YoY.

US President Donald Trump stated in a new executive order on Tuesday that he would raise the tariff rates on steel and aluminum products from 25% to 50% to support the US steel industry. However, this policy, which is essentially arbitrary, has sparked significant discontent in both North America and Europe. According to data, most of the steel imported by the US comes from its two neighboring countries, Canada and Mexico, which are also the two countries that have been the most vocal in criticizing Trump's new policy. In a media statement, the office of Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau stated that the Trump administration's move to raise steel tariff rates is both illegal and unreasonable. The Canadian government is engaging in intensive negotiations with the US to eliminate the tariffs. Mexican Minister of Economy Marcelo Ebrard publicly criticized at an event that Trump's tariffs are unfair and unsustainable, and that Mexico imports more steel from the US. He is committed to seeking tariff exemptions for Mexico. Officials from the European Commission revealed that the Commission is in the final stages of consultations on expanding countermeasures. If no agreement can be reached with the US, existing and additional retaliatory measures by the EU will automatically take effect on July 14 or earlier. Huge Losses Data shows that over 90% of Canada's steel and aluminum exports go to the US. In a statement, the Canadian aluminum industry warned that the additional tariffs have made Canadian exports to the US economically unviable. The Canadian steel industry, on the other hand, stated that the country will face catastrophic unemployment, production slowdowns, and supply chain disruptions. The German Steel Producers' Association, WV Stahl, also warned that Trump's announcement of imposing tariffs on US steel imports marks an escalation of transatlantic trade conflicts to a new level. Kerstin-Maria Rippel, the director of the association, pointed out that the European Commission must find a balance between strict trade protection and reasonable negotiations. The European steel industry needs an effective trade protection tool in the near term; secondly, it is also crucial to continue negotiations with the US on a bilateral steel agreement. European Commission spokesperson Maroš Šefčovič told the media that the European Commission has consistently made it clear that it is willing to take action to defend the EU's interests. The EU's top priority is to create space for negotiations, with lowering tariffs as its long-term goal. Currently, the EU is facing 25% import tariffs on US steel and automobiles, as well as 20% reciprocal tariffs covering most EU goods, and a 10% across-the-board tariff. In response, the EU has imposed countermeasures on US goods worth 21 billion euros and is planning to impose additional tariffs on goods worth 95 billion euros.