[Aluminum Ingot Social Inventory Destocking Accelerates Significantly, Relative High Level Still Caps Aluminum Price Upside Room] On the fundamentals side, the supply gap outside China is expected to provide strong bottom support for aluminum prices, and expectations of rising energy costs also form a bullish driver. This Thursday, the destocking pace of China’s social inventory of aluminum ingots accelerated notably, effectively easing the earlier high inventory pressure. However, China’s high inventory pressure remains relatively prominent, which is expected to cap the upside room for domestic aluminum prices. In the short term, domestic aluminum prices are expected to mainly fluctuate and consolidate.

[Geopolitical Disturbances Marginally Weaken, Accelerating Destocking Supports Aluminum Prices Fluctuating Upward] On the macro front, Trump once again claimed that US-Iran negotiations have entered the "final moment," but the market has become desensitized to his repeated similar statements, and the geopolitical risk premium is marginally weakening. On the fundamentals side, the supply gap outside China is expected to provide strong bottom support for aluminum prices, and expectations of rising energy costs also form a bullish driver for aluminum prices; however, the high inventory pressure in China remains relatively evident, which is expected to limit the upside room for China's aluminum prices, and in the short term, China’s aluminum prices are expected to mainly fluctuate and adjust.

[SMM Aluminum Express] The proportion of liquid aluminum rebounded by 0.12 percentage points WoW this week, with moderate demand for liquid aluminum. Downstream processing sectors showed divergent performance. Although in the consumption off-season, strong export demand in some sectors partly offset weak domestic demand. Weekly operating rates of secondary alloy, aluminum plate/sheet and strip, and aluminum foil weakened, while primary alloy operating performance recovered. The aluminum wire and cable and aluminum extrusion sectors generally stabilized. Overall, the weekly operating rate of downstream leaders edged down 0.1 percentage point WoW this week.

[SMM Aluminum Price Weekly Review: Export Demand Offsets Weak Domestic Consumption, China Domestic Aluminum Prices Expected to Fluctuate and Adjust in the Short Term]

Gulf aluminum producers are accelerating overseas acquisitions and investments as they seek to improve supply-chain resilience, expand market access and reduce exposure to regional geopolitical risks. Recent moves include Aluminum Bahrain’s (Alba) USD2.2 billion acquisition of Aluminum Dunkerque, Europe’s largest primary aluminum smelter, and Emirates Global Aluminum’s (EGA) continued expansion into recycling assets across Europe and North America. Industry forecasts expect global aluminum demand to exceed 92 million tones by 2031, supported by growth in electric vehicles, renewable energy infrastructure and sustainable packaging. Markets believe Gulf producers are increasingly using international expansion to strengthen their positions in the growing low-carbon aluminum market.

According to data from the Aluminum Institute, total North American aluminum demand (including the United States and Canada) is estimated to reach 26.65 billion pounds in 2025 (domestic producer shipments + imports), a slight increase of 0.8% year-on-year, compared to 26.45 billion pounds in 2024. The institute's report shows that North American aluminum producer shipments declined by 0.5% in 2025. Imports of aluminum and aluminum products in North America increased by 9.1% in 2025, mainly driven by strong demand for flat-rolled products and unwrought aluminum. Demand for North American aluminum extrusions declined by 3.1% in 2025, but demand for plates, foils, and wires all saw slight increases.