[SMM Flash] SHFE data showed that on July 3, the total registered warrants for cast aluminum alloy stood at 25,485 mt, down 1,077 mt from the previous trading day. By region, the breakdown was: Shanghai (2,603 mt, down 299 mt), Guangdong (4,079 mt, down 360 mt), Jiangsu (5,279 mt, down 148 mt), Zhejiang (8,200 mt, down 211 mt), Chongqing (4,539 mt, down 59 mt), and Sichuan (785 mt, down 1,507 mt).

[SMM Aluminum Alloy Express] Recently, ADC12 prices in overseas markets continued their downward trend, with quotes pulling back further to the range of $3,100-$3,200/mt today. Meanwhile, domestic ADC12 prices remained relatively firm supported by aluminum scrap costs, driving a continued recovery in the price spread between Chinese and overseas markets and further narrowing import losses. Currently, the import loss per mt of ADC12 stands at about 1,087 yuan, pulling back to the level seen in early March. If domestic prices stay high going forward while overseas markets remain under pressure and decline, the degree of price inversion between Chinese and overseas markets is expected to narrow further, potentially opening the window for import profits gradually.

Today ADC12 market quotes continued to rise overall, with the SMM ADC12 price up by 200 yuan/mt from the previous day to 24,000 yuan/mt. As spot aluminum prices and aluminum alloy futures rebounded consecutively, cost support strengthened further. Enterprises' enthusiasm for raising prices in tandem increased noticeably, and market sentiment recovered somewhat from the earlier period. On the demand side, downstream orders had yet to show significant improvement, and the overall operation remained stable. Some enterprises reported that order intake since July had changed little, with the market still dominated by just-in-time procurement.

[ADC12 Price Daily Review: Futures and Spot Prices Strengthen in Tandem, but Demand Concerns Linger; Weakening Prices Outside China Drive Continued Recovery of the Domestic-Overseas Spread] Today, quoted prices in the ADC12 market generally extended their upward trend. The SMM ADC12 price rose 200 yuan/mt from the previous day to 24,000 yuan/mt.

[Weekly Review of Aluminum Scrap and Secondary Aluminum]Primary-Scrap Spread Narrows Sharply as ADC12-A00 Premium Hits a Record High: Has the Window Opened for Primary Aluminum to Replace Scrap?

[Expectations for US Fed Interest Rate Hikes Delayed, Short-Term Weakness in Aluminum Prices Hard to Break] In China, the proportion of liquid aluminum continued to rise, and warehouse withdrawals of aluminum ingots hit a four-year high in the past week. The further acceleration of the destocking pace has been the biggest highlight recently, but the absolute inventory level remains in a high range. Recently, with the continued narrowing of the geopolitical risk premium coupled with expectations for new project startups outside China, macro headwinds still dominate. LME aluminum is under significant pressure in the short term, and domestic aluminum prices are expected to follow LME aluminum and remain in the doldrums.