[SMM Weekly Survey of the Aluminum Downstream Sector: Downstream Aluminum Operating Rate Continued to Rebound to 61.9%, with High Prices Suppressing the Peak "Golden March" Season] This week, the weekly operating rate of leading downstream aluminum processing enterprises in China rose 2.4 percentage points MoM to 61.9%, overall extending the post-holiday recovery trend, with all segments rebounding MoM, and the industry as a whole entering a normal production pace.

[[Weekly Review of Aluminum Scrap and Secondary Aluminum]]Aluminum Prices Strengthened This Week, Rising Costs Drove Up ADC12 Prices

[SMM Aluminum Price Weekly Review: Geopolitical Disruptions Dominate, Aluminum Prices Remain Elevated]

SMM, March 12: The SHFE aluminum 03 contract opened today and fluctuated upward. High aluminum prices suppressed downstream demand, overall procurement demand remained weak, and market premiums continued to soften. Market premiums kept declining from the opening. Today’s mainstream transaction prices were concentrated at discounts of 20 yuan/mt to the average price. Today, the east China market’s shipments sentiment index was 3.32, up 0.05 MoM; the purchasing sentiment index was 2.57, down 0.09 MoM. With aluminum prices rising for consecutive days, traders and downstream processing enterprises in the central China market showed weak buying sentiment, while end-user clients were also less willing to pick up goods. Downstream plants faced inventory overhang, with costs and operating rates constrained, maintaining only limited restocking for rigid demand or suspending restocking altogether. Meanwhile, suppliers showed a strong willingness to sell but weak willingness to hold prices firm. Ultimately, actual mainstream transaction prices in the central China market were mostly around discounts of 10-20 yuan to the central China price. Today, the central China market’s shipments sentiment index was 2.67, up 0.02 MoM; the purchasing sentiment index was 2.32, down 0.02 MoM. Inventory side, aluminum ingot inventory in major consumption regions increased by 7,500 mt MoM today, with the inventory buildup mainly coming from Guangdong and Gongyi. In the short term, aluminum ingot continued its post-Chinese New Year seasonal inventory buildup, and affected by bullish sentiment, premiums are expected to remain on a narrowing trend.

[SMM Aluminum Morning Briefing: Middle East Situation Remains Deadlocked, Aluminum Prices Hold Up Well] Overall, macro geopolitical risks are providing support at the bottom of prices, while the continued buildup in China’s social inventory is weighing on aluminum prices. However, the geopolitical situation in the Middle East remains unclear. If the conflict persists, expectations for tighter global aluminum supply will remain strong, and aluminum prices will still have solid upward momentum. In the short term, aluminum prices are still expected to hold up well.

[Spot Silicon Metal Prices Probe Higher as Market Transactions Remain Stagnant; Polysilicon Price Trend Declines]: On the supply side, production release from silicon metal capacity that resumed production in early March increased total silicon metal supply compared with early March. Recently, there have been scattered production resumptions in Southwest China, but these have not yet become widespread, so their impact on supply growth has been very limited. On the cost side, spot prices of silicon coal and electrodes have remained temporarily stable recently, while petroleum coke prices rose slightly. Coupled with higher gasoline prices, road transport freight rates were raised slightly, providing relatively strong cost support for silicon metal. On the demand side, performance has mainly remained stable recently. During the week, spot silicon metal transactions were stagnant, inventory in the intermediate segment stayed at a high level, and downstream demand was weak, so silicon metal prices had limited room to rise or fall and were mainly range-bound in consolidation.