SMM August 13: Domestic Bauxite: Domestic Ore Supply Disruptions Linger, Mainstream Prices Remain Stable Affected by coking coal-related events in Shanxi, mining at domestic bauxite main producing areas such as Shanxi and Henan was somewhat disrupted in the short term, and ore supply showed phased changes. Meanwhile, alumina prices remained at relatively high levels, and alumina enterprises had moderate tolerance for rising raw material prices, mainly passively accepting current ore prices in the short term. As of today, in Shanxi, VAT-exclusive EXW transaction prices at crushing plants for bauxite with an Al/Si ratio of 5 and 60% alumina content were around 530-550 yuan/mt; in Henan, VAT-exclusive EXW transaction prices at crushing plants for bauxite with an Al/Si ratio of 5 and 60% alumina content were around 500-540 yuan/mt; in Guiyang, VAT-inclusive EXW prices for bauxite with an Al/Si ratio of 6 and 60% alumina content were 490-540 yuan/mt; in Guangxi, VAT-exclusive EXW transaction prices at crushing plants for bauxite with an Al/Si ratio of 6 and 53% alumina content were 320-335 yuan/mt. Imported Bauxite: August Contract Prices Raised Slightly, Imported Ore Price Divergence Between Upstream and Downstream Intensifies Data as of August 7 showed that total weekly port departures of bauxite at main ports in Guinea were 4.5611 million mt, up 690,800 mt from the previous week, with shipments higher. As US-Iran tensions heated up again, oil prices rebounded, and ocean freight rates from Guinea to China showed an upward trend, with market quotes rising to around $35/dmt; costs at various mines also increased to varying degrees. Coupled with policy uncertainty in Guinea and transport affected by severe weather, mines in Guinea tightened control over bauxite shipments. In Australia, as of August 7, total weekly port departures of bauxite at main Australian ports were 926,700 mt, down 126,000 mt from the previous week, with shipments basically flat. Going forward, attention should be paid to the shipment pace of Australian mines and changes in port departures. As of August 7, China's bauxite port arrivals were 5.2267 million mt, up 1.352 million mt from the previous week. Continuous attention should be paid to the impact of elevated and fluctuating oil prices and ocean freight rates on future port arrival pace and landed costs. Price-wise, Guinea's August bauxite long-term contract prices rose slightly compared with July, settling at $73-74/mt, but downstream price acceptance was relatively limited. Meanwhile, bauxite inventories at alumina refineries in China remained high. This week, alumina refinery bauxite inventories were relatively stable, with days of inventories at around 96 days, capping ore prices to some extent. For Guinean bauxite, with transportation costs from Guinea to China rebounding and shipment reductions caused by the traditional rainy season and severe weather adding to mine costs, offers from upstream sellers and traders remained firm and edged up slightly to a high price range around $73/mt; at Chinese alumina refineries, under the combined impact of persistently high inventory and shrinking margins, intended transaction prices held at $70-71/mt; upstream and downstream participants in the bauxite market diverged sharply on prices, transactions slowed, and the standoff carried over from last week. As of this Thursday, Guinean bauxite FOB quotes were $38-42/mt, with the average price unchanged from last Thursday; Guinean bauxite CIF prices were $70-74/mt, with the average price unchanged from last Thursday; the SMM imported bauxite index price stood at $71.72/mt, up $0.15/mt from last Thursday. Going forward, bauxite prices will still depend on cost conditions at individual mines, the traditional rainy season in Guinea, and the impact of the Guinean government's bauxite export quota policy on overall shipments. SMM will continue to closely monitor bauxite market trends and transaction activity. Overall , domestic ore prices held at current levels; meanwhile, inventory at Chinese alumina refineries remained high (about 96 days), and the bid-offer standoff between buyers and sellers continued; uncertainty over Guinea's quota policy, lower shipments, and the traditional rainy season also put some upward pressure on bauxite costs. In the short term, with shipments reduced by the dual impact of costs and policy, imported ore prices are expected to continue their high-level standoff pattern; afterward, close attention should be paid to the implementation of Guinea's quota policy and ocean freight rate trends.

SMM August 12: A sudden supply-side disruption has significantly altered the short-term supply-demand balance in the alumina market outside China. On August 11, Hydro’s Alunorte alumina refinery in Brazil was forced to activate emergency response measures due to a natural gas supply outage, cutting alumina production to 50% of capacity. The refinery has an existing capacity of 6.3 million mt/year, and after the 50% cut, the operating capacity fell to around 3.15 million mt/year, equivalent to a monthly production loss of approximately 250,000 mt—a non-negligible impact on the overall supply landscape outside China. Before this unexpected production cut, the alumina market outside China was in a slight surplus: in July, global alumina supply (excluding China) exceeded demand by about 486,000 mt, reflecting a loose supply-demand pattern. However, with Alunorte’s sharp output reduction, the August overseas surplus is expected to narrow quickly to around 177,000 mt. It is worth further noting that alumina prices outside China still lag behind domestic levels. This price spread means some alumina needs to be transshipped and repackaged in China before it can be exported, adding extra packaging and logistics costs. At the same time, China still maintains a net-import pattern for alumina, with monthly net imports averaging around 100,000 mt. Taken together, the actual surplus available for supply outside China will be further squeezed to merely about 70,000 mt. The supply-demand balance will abruptly shift from relatively loose to a tight balance, significantly elevating the risk of regional structural shortages, and alumina prices outside China are highly likely to find upward support in the short term. However, it must be objectively recognized that the price rally is not solely driven by Alunorte’s production cuts. Another structural support factor exists in overseas markets: due to strait passage issues, demand for bagged alumina in the Middle East is relatively urgent, while bulk alumina cannot effectively meet local supply because of transportation constraints. This situation has prompted some traders to first sell bulk alumina and then turn to purchase bagged alumina to fill the gap. Bagged alumina itself commands a notable premium—its FOB price is typically more than $20/mt higher than that of bulk alumina. This extra packaging and logistics cost has, to some extent, pushed up the overall price center in the regional market, serving as a secondary support for near-term alumina price strength outside China. Even if short-term sentiment and supply-demand fundamentals converge to drive prices higher, the upside room for alumina prices outside China may remain relatively limited. The core reason is that India still has plans to launch new capacity—a 1 million mt/year alumina project is expected to gradually advance its expansion in Q4 this year and Q1 next year, which will effectively supplement market supply at that time. Therefore, although supply was tight in Q3 due to production cuts at Alunorte, from a full-year perspective, the supply tightness in Q4 will ease noticeably, making it difficult to support a sustained sharp price increase. More attention should be paid to the uncertainty of disturbances on the time dimension. Currently, the duration of Alunorte’s natural gas supply issue remains unclear. If it is properly resolved in the short term, the impact of the production cuts will be relatively manageable; however, if the repair cycle is prolonged, the supply deficit outside China in Q3 will persist. Early signs of tight spot supply have already emerged in some regions. With the combination of fundamentals and sentiment, the likelihood of alumina prices outside China holding up well increases. Looking further ahead, new alumina capacity in Indonesia will be released gradually next year, and the global alumina supply landscape will evolve towards a looser balance, putting downward pressure on the long-term price center. In summary, the impact of this Alunorte production cut event on the alumina market outside China is mainly concentrated in Q3 this year. Short-term prices are expected to rise due to expectations of tightening supply-demand and regionally structural cost increases. However, constrained by the expectations of long-term growth from India’s new capacity about to be commissioned, as well as the continuous loosening pressure from capacity releases in Indonesia in Q4 this year and early next year, the current price rise reflects more of a periodic rebound rather than a trend reversal. It is expected that alumina prices outside China will consolidate on a strong note in Q3, and from Q4 to early next year, as new capacity comes online, the price center is likely to pull back gradually. (The above information is based on market data collection and comprehensive assessment by SMM’s research team. The information provided is for reference only. This article does not constitute direct investment advice. Clients should make prudent decisions and not use this as a substitute for independent judgment. Any decisions made by clients are not related to SMM.) Data source: SMM

SMM August 11 News: Today, SHFE aluminum 2609 contract opened at 24,180 yuan/mt, reached a high of 24,260 yuan/mt, a low of 24,095 yuan/mt, and finally closed at 24,250 yuan/mt, up 215 yuan/mt from the previous trading day, a rise of 0.89%. Trading volume was 131,200 lots, open interest 239,400 lots, with a daily position change of -1,415 lots. The price has firmly stood above MA5 (24,010), MA10 (23,821), MA30 (23,314.17), and MA60 (23,720.75). The moving average system shows a bullish alignment, and the uptrend continues. In the MACD indicator, DIFF (188.92) and DEA (76.79) are both above the zero line and continue to diverge upward, with the histogram expanding to 224.25, indicating strengthening bullish momentum. Trading volume of 131,200 lots was below MA5 (134,100 lots), a volume-shrinking rise suggesting limited willingness to rush to buy amid continuous price rise. SMM Comment: Differences remain on the Middle East situation. Although the US Fed did not raise rates in July, its overall stance remains hawkish. The fundamental deficit persists, and aluminum ingot inventory continues to destock. In the short term, aluminum prices are expected to consolidate on a strong note. Today, alumina 2609 contract opened at 2,727 yuan/mt, reached a high of 2,743 yuan/mt, a low of 2,711 yuan/mt, and finally closed at 2,724 yuan/mt, up 25 yuan/mt from the previous trading day, a rise of 0.93%. Trading volume was 156,100 lots, open interest 324,900 lots, with a daily position change of -28,277 lots. The price has firmly stood above MA5 (2,696.2), MA10 (2,670.7), and MA30 (2,696.4), but remains below MA60 (2,764.7). Short-term moving averages are in bullish alignment, while medium and long-term moving averages still exert resistance. In the MACD indicator, DIFF (29.51) and DEA (17.39) have both turned positive and are diverging upward, with the histogram expanding to 24.24, indicating gradually strengthening bullish momentum. Trading volume of 156,100 lots was below MA5 (203,100 lots), a volume-shrinking rise suggesting declining market participation. The daily position change of -28,277 lots, a significant reduction, indicates clear bearish liquidation. SMM Comment: This week, spot alumina prices continued to drift lower, maintaining a downward trend. Supply side, production this week rebounded slightly WoW, mainly as enterprises that had undergone maintenance resumed production, gradually restoring output to normal levels, with overall supply increasing. Demand side saw no significant change, with downstream procurement pace remaining stable, failing to provide effective growth support. Ex-China, the issue of Indonesia's alumina export restrictions has been resolved. Alumina resources previously suspended due to containing rare earth elements have now been approved for re-export, which will supplement the Chinese market going forward. Looking ahead to next week, bullish and bearish factors are intertwined: On one hand, an alumina refinery in south China plans maintenance, which will tighten regional supply and provide some support to prices; on the other hand, new vessels will continue to arrive at ports, providing ongoing supply replenishment. Under these two forces, overall inventory is expected to remain at current levels, with the pace of inventory buildup slowing down. Overall, driven by sentiment fluctuations on the futures market and the positive impact of short-term maintenance, the decline in alumina prices is expected to temporarily halt, and prices will consolidate within the current range in the near term. [The information provided is for reference only. This article does not constitute direct advice for investment research decisions. Clients should make decisions prudently and should not use this as a substitute for independent judgment. Any decisions made by clients have nothing to do with SMM.]

SMM, August 3 According to SMM data, the average tax-inclusive full cost of the domestic electrolytic aluminum industry rose 0.9% month-on-month in July 2026, while falling 1.7% year-on-year, mainly driven by slight increases in the monthly average price of alumina, prebaked anode prices, and electricity prices during the period. The monthly average SMM A00 spot price in July (June 26 – July 25) stood at RMB 22,977 per tonne, down 4.2% month-on-month. Electrolytic aluminum profit margins narrowed by RMB 1,146 per tonne to RMB 6,999 per tonne, with average profitability up 56.8% year-on-year. Measured by the monthly average price, 100% of domestic operating electrolytic aluminum capacity was in profit in July. By cost component: Alumina: According to SMM data, the monthly average SMM Alumina Index in July (June 26 – July 25) was RMB 2,745 per tonne, up 1.6% month-on-month. Alumina prices fluctuated within a range through the month as inventories continued to accumulate; overseas alumina prices, however, rose on restocking ahead of production restarts and new capacity ramp-ups. Entering August, the alumina market is expected to maintain its current supply structure. Against a backdrop of net imports, there is no sign of an inflection point toward inventory drawdown, but cost support has lifted Guinean sellers' asking prices, lending upward momentum to alumina costs. In the near term, the tug-of-war between cost support and loose supply in the spot alumina market is set to continue. With prices relatively low at the start of the month, the August average price is expected to edge down slightly. Auxiliary materials: In July, rigid demand from electrolytic aluminum underpinned domestic anode consumption, while export demand from Southeast Asia offset reductions in the Middle East, leaving the prebaked anode market relatively steady. Long-term contract procurement prices rose marginally by RMB 30 per tonne month-on-month. In the fluoride salt market, downstream buyers maintained rigid procurement and held off on purchases to push prices lower, leading to declines in procurement prices at major producers. Entering August, with cost support softening and supply continuing to expand, prebaked anode prices are expected to edge down slightly; fluoride salt prices, by contrast, are projected to rise on the back of rigid cost support combined with low operating rates. Overall, auxiliary material costs for electrolytic aluminum are expected to decline slightly in August. Electricity prices: Electricity prices rose modestly month-on-month in July. Entering August, electricity prices are expected to remain broadly stable, and overall power costs for electrolytic aluminum are projected to hold steady. In summary, the weighted average tax-inclusive full cost of SMM's domestic electrolytic aluminum industry rose slightly in July 2026; electrolytic aluminum costs are expected to decline modestly in August, with the average hovering around RMB 15,700–16,100 per tonne.

SMM, August 6: Domestic Bauxite: Supply Disruptions Push Domestic Ore Prices Up, Overall Rise in Long-Term Contract Purchase Prices for Alumina Enterprises Due to the impact of the Shanxi coking coal incident, mining at bauxite mines in major production areas such as Shanxi and Henan was slightly disrupted in the short term, leading to temporary changes in bauxite supply. Meanwhile, alumina prices remained at a relatively high level, and alumina enterprises had a moderate tolerance for rising raw material costs, mostly passively accepting current ore prices in the short term. As of today, the EXW price of bauxite with an Al/Si ratio of 5 and 60% alumina content, excluding VAT, at crushing plants in Shanxi was approximately 530-550 yuan/mt; in Henan, the EXW price was around 500-540 yuan/mt; in Guiyang, the EXW price including VAT was 490-540 yuan/mt; and in Guangxi, bauxite with an Al/Si ratio of 6 and 53% alumina content, excluding VAT, at crushing plants was 320-335 yuan/mt. Imported Bauxite: High Ocean Freight Rates Combined with Rainy Season Disruptions, August Long-Term Contract Prices Under Continuous Discussion As of July 31, data showed that total weekly bauxite port departures from major Guinean ports were 3.8703 million mt, up 800,600 mt from the previous week, with a slight rise in shipments. Due to the renewed intensification of the US-Iran situation, oil prices rebounded again, and ocean freight rates from Guinea to China followed with an upward trend, with market quotations rising to around $35/mt, and costs at various mines rising to varying degrees; coupled with Guinea's policy uncertainty and adverse weather affecting transportation, Guinean mines strengthened control over bauxite shipments. In Australia, as of July 31, total weekly bauxite port departures from major Australian ports were 1.0527 million mt, up 4,600 mt from the previous week, with basically flat shipments; future attention is needed on the shipment pace of Australian mines and changes in port departures. As of July 31, China's bauxite port arrivals were 3.8747 million mt, up 1.1144 million mt from the previous week; continuous monitoring is needed for the impact of high and fluctuating oil prices and ocean freight rates on future port arrival pace and landed costs. In terms of prices, Guinea's bauxite long-term contract quotations for July were between $70-71.5/mt, and August long-term contract prices are still under discussion, but market rumors currently indicate these prices may rise compared to July. Meanwhile, bauxite inventories at China's alumina refineries remained high. This week, these inventories remained relatively stable, with days of inventories of about 94 days, forming certain ceiling pressure on ore prices. For Guinean bauxite, the rebound in transportation costs from Guinea to China, combined with mine cost overlays from shipment reductions driven by the traditional rainy season and bad weather, kept offers from upstream players and traders persistently firm, with slight increases to a high price range of $72-73/mt. China's alumina refineries, impacted by the dual pressures of consistently high inventories and shrinking profits, kept intended transaction prices in the range of $70-71/mt. Serious price divergence existed between upstream and downstream sectors in the bauxite market, with market transactions slowing down and the bargaining stalemate continuing from last week. As of this Thursday, the FOB offer for Guinean bauxite was $38-42/mt, with the average price up $1/mt from last Thursday; the CIF price was reported at $70-74/mt, with the average price up $1/mt from last Thursday; the SMM Imported Bauxite Index price was reported at $71.57/mt, up $0.7/mt from last Thursday. Future bauxite prices will still depend on individual mine cost situations, the impact of Guinea's traditional rainy season and government bauxite export quota policy on overall shipments, and SMM will continue to closely monitor market trends and transaction conditions in the bauxite market. Overall , domestic ore market prices maintained current levels; meanwhile, bauxite inventories at China's alumina refineries remained high (about 94 days), and the bargaining game between buyers and sellers continued. The uncertainty of Guinea's quota policy, the decline in shipments, and the traditional rainy season also exerted certain upward pressure on bauxite costs. In the short term, due to the dual impact of cost and policy leading to reduced shipments, imported ore prices are expected to continue the pattern of high-level bargaining, and focus should then be on the implementation of Guinea's quota policy and ocean freight rate trends.

SMM August 4 news: Today, the SHFE aluminum 2608 contract opened at 23,625 yuan/mt, hit a session high of 23,825 yuan/mt, a low of 23,510 yuan/mt, and finally settled at 23,800 yuan/mt, up 250 yuan/mt or 1.06% from the previous trading day. Trading volume was 9,805 lots, open interest stood at 35,500 lots, with a daily position change of -4,865 lots. The price stood above MA5 (23,620), MA10 (23,422), MA20 (23,271.50), MA40 (23,352.63), and MA60 (23,745.50), indicating strengthening short-term repair momentum. In the MACD indicator, the DIFF (55.87) was above the DEA (-46.64), with the histogram recording 205.02, as bullish momentum continued to release. Trading volume remained low, and the daily position change of -4,865 lots showed continued capital outflow. Today’s rise was more of a short-covering rally, and the sustainability of the upward momentum still needs to be observed. SMM Comment: Indirect technical talks between the US and Iran made progress, with discussions centered on fund repatriation and strait security, and the nuclear issue is about to initiate consultations. The geopolitical risk premium continued to narrow. Disputes over the management of the Strait of Hormuz persisted, leaving uncertainty over the resumption of navigation in the strait. The US Fed’s hawkish pivot boosted the US dollar index, weighing on nonferrous metal prices. Under macro headwinds, aluminum prices fell both in China and overseas. In the short term, bearish factors are dominant, and aluminum prices are expected to remain in the doldrums. Today, the alumina 2609 contract opened at 2,625 yuan/mt, hit a session high of 2,655 yuan/mt, a low of 2,623 yuan/mt, and finally settled at 2,641 yuan/mt, up 7 yuan/mt or 0.27% from the previous trading day. Trading volume was 124,000 lots, open interest was 215,600 lots, with a daily position change of -11,536 lots. Prices remained below MA5 (2,645.20), MA10 (2,673.90), MA20 (2,687.55), MA40 (2,761.45), and MA60 (2,770.80). The moving average system maintained a bearish alignment, with the weak pattern yet to reverse. In the MACD indicator, the DIFF (-35.48) was below the DEA (-32.66), with the histogram recording -5.62, indicating residual bearish momentum. Trading volume pulled back, and the daily position change of -11,536 lots showed significant capital outflow. Today’s rebound was more a reflection of short-covering at low levels. SMM Comment: According to SMM statistics, as of last Thursday, China’s total alumina inventory edged down WoW. By inventory segment, raw material inventory at aluminum smelters continued mild destocking, but due to sharp price fluctuations and market divergence over the outlook, restocking willingness was weak, with terminal users mainly taking a wait-and-see attitude. In-factory inventory at alumina refineries decreased, mainly due to phased maintenance at some plants in the north. Under production constraints, in-factory inventory was consumed first. After the maintenance ends next week, this impact is expected to gradually fade. Port inventory continued to build, as overseas port arrivals stayed high, with imported resources supplementing spot supply and adding market pressure. Overall, the oversupply pattern remains unchanged. Before Guinea’s bauxite quota policy is implemented, the market lacks clear bullish drivers. Next week, the inventory is expected to shift from weak destocking to slight buildup, with supply and demand staying loose, and alumina prices continuing to consolidate on a weak note. [The information provided is for reference only. This article does not constitute direct investment research or decision-making advice. Clients should make decisions prudently and not substitute independent judgment with this information. Any decisions made by clients are not related to SMM.]