28th of Feburary: According to SMM statistics, in February 2026, overseas production of metallurgical-grade alumina decreased by 12.41% month-on-month and 3.66% year-on-year; the average operating rate of overseas alumina enterprises edged down by 0.01 percentage point month-on-month to 76.17%, a decrease of 2.67 percentage points year-on-year. Overall, overseas alumina production was relatively stable during the month. By region: Asia: On February 6, Lam Dong Province in Vietnam approved the expansion plans for two alumina projects under Vinacomin, with a total investment of VND 59.855 trillion (approximately USD 2.3 billion). One is to add a production line with an annual capacity of 1.2 million tons at the Nhan Co alumina plant in Dak Nong Province, which is expected to be commissioned in 2030 with an operating period of 30 years. The other is to expand the Tan Rai alumina plant in Lam Dong Province, planning to build a second production line with an annual capacity of 1.2 million tons. Construction is expected to be completed in the third quarter of 2030 and operation to begin in the fourth quarter. According to SMM research, Vietnam's local bauxite resources are relatively abundant, providing stable raw material support for the commissioning of these projects. It is expected that they will have significant cost advantages, potentially enhancing the export competitiveness of alumina in the long term. Europe: In order to reduce the negative environmental impact of road transportation, Alteo alumina plant has partnered with HES Fos, planning to relocate most of its logistics operations from the port of Marseille to the port of Fos-sur-Mer. Under the agreement, HES Fos will be responsible for unloading ships, storing hydrated alumina, and subsequently transporting it to Alteo's plant in Gardanne. In the future, HES Fos will renovate an existing clinker warehouse specifically for storing hydrated alumina to ensure the smooth operation of the supply chain. The construction of this dedicated facility has entered the execution phase and is expected to be put into operation in 2029, providing reliable support for the logistics and storage of alumina in the long term. Australia: On February 13, Australian company Alpha HPA announced the groundbreaking of the second phase of its planned world's largest single-site high-purity alumina refinery. The project will utilize the company's proprietary solvent extraction and refining technology to commercially produce high-purity alumina products with a purity of 99.99%, providing key raw materials for industries such as global lithium batteries, LED lights, and semiconductor manufacturing. Middle East: On February 28, the conflict between Iran and Israel escalated, with an attack on Tehran, the capital of Iran. Currently, no shutdowns of alumina plants in the region have been reported. According to SMM statistics, Iran has only one alumina plant, which is equipped with bauxite production capacity. If geopolitical conflicts further intensify, the plant's production could be affected, and the possibility of output cuts or shutdowns cannot be ruled out. Data show that Iran's annual alumina output is about 250,000 tons, and bauxite output is about 650,000 tons. Its alumina production cannot meet the domestic demand for electrolytic aluminum production, and it has long relied on imports, with India being the main source. Alumina imports from India account for 40% to 80% of Iran's total imports. Outlook for March 2026: Overseas production of metallurgical-grade alumina is expected to increase by 12.65% month-on-month and decrease slightly by 2.38% year-on-year; the operating rate is expected to be 77.45%, up 0.01 percentage point month-on-month and down 1.61 percentage points year-on-year. Continuous attention should be paid to the impact of changes in the international political situation on alumina production.

SMM February 28 News: In February 2026, China's metallurgical-grade alumina output decreased by 10.6% month-on-month and also fell by 4.83% year-on-year. By the end of February, the national installed capacity stood at approximately 110.32 million mt, while operating capacity decreased by 1.06% month-on-month and 4.83% year-on-year, indicating a continued downward trend for the industry. The main reasons for the output decline this month were, on one hand, the concentrated implementation of maintenance and production cuts by enterprises, and on the other hand, the fewer natural days in February, which further impacted production schedules. Around the middle of the month, a company in the northern region implemented large-scale production cuts, coupled with equipment maintenance and production line upgrades by some enterprises. Simultaneously, some southern companies reduced operating loads, leading to a slight contraction in overall monthly output. Looking ahead to March, the overall oversupply situation in the alumina market is unlikely to change in the short term. Although the earlier maintenance and production cuts have led to a decrease in enterprise inventories and slightly eased overall shipment pressure, operational pressure within the industry persists. In March, some enterprises may continue to carry out maintenance and production line upgrades, and the industry will enter a phase of gradual destocking. However, the gradual release of new production capacity in the Guangxi region will offset some of the reductions, and overall operating capacity is expected to show a slow downward trend. Overall, it is projected that operating capacity in March will be approximately 85.11 million mt, and the market will still face oversupply pressure.

9th Feburary 2026: According to SMM statistics, in January 2026, overseas metallurgical-grade alumina production decreased by 3.17% month-on-month and increased by 3.42% year-on-year; the average operating rate of overseas alumina enterprises edged down 0.04 percentage points month-on-month to 79.37%, a year-on-year decrease of 1.10 percentage points. Alumina production saw both increases and decreases during the month. By region: Indonesia: According to SMM research, PT Kalimantan Alumina Nusantara (KAN), approximately 80%-owned by Press Metal Group, is constructing an alumina refinery with an annual capacity of 1–1.2 million tonnes in West Kalimantan, Indonesia. The project is expected to gradually commence production in late 2026 or early 2027. Meanwhile, Indonesia’s bauxite quota has not been updated for the time being and is only sufficient to support the country’s existing 7 million tonnes of alumina operating capacity. Taking into account the newly added alumina production capacity totalling 2 million tonnes, bauxite demand stands at approximately 24 million tonnes, exceeding the bauxite quota of 18 million tonnes. The tight supply of bauxite at the raw material end will affect the ramp-up of new production capacity. SMM will continue to monitor bauxite supply and alumina production. Middle East: Chuangyuan Metal’s “Alumina—Aluminium Smelting—Power Plant—Aluminium Deep Processing” integrated green and low-carbon aluminium industrial park project in Saudi Arabia is scheduled to begin construction by the end of 2026. Phase I of the project plans to build 500,000 tonnes of aluminium smelting capacity. The project is expected to have a construction period of 24 months and commence production before the end of 2028. Saudi Arabia currently has only one alumina refinery in operation, with an annual capacity of 2 million tonnes. Apart from meeting the production needs of its associated aluminium smelter, the surplus is mainly exported to neighbouring countries. With the commissioning of Chuangyuan’s aluminium smelting project, the trade flow of alumina in the Saudi region is set to change. Africa: During the month, Ghana completed the review of the proposal for its first large-scale alumina refinery project. The project aims to change the country’s long history of exporting bauxite raw materials and importing high-cost finished products. By constructing a refinery, it will directly supply alumina to the Volta Aluminium Company (VALCO), laying the foundation for the downstream aluminium manufacturing industry and driving the development of related industrial clusters. The project is expected to commence in 2026, with a target to restore VALCO’s annual capacity to over 200,000 tonnes by the end of 2028. United States: On January 15, the United States invested $450 million to rescue its last and only domestic alumina refinery and build a complete gallium supply chain. This strategic initiative aims to secure the supply of critical raw materials needed for the defence, aerospace, and high-tech sectors. The refinery will process imported Jamaican bauxite into alumina, targeting an annual output of over 1 million tonnes of alumina, which would meet nearly 40% of U.S. demand. At the same time, the investment will be used to construct a new gallium extraction production line, with a planned capacity of up to 50 tonnes of gallium per year. Outlook for February 2026: Overseas metallurgical-grade alumina production is expected to decrease by 10.95% month-on-month and increase by 1.34% year-on-year; the operating rate is expected to be approximately 78.11%, down 0.01 percentage points month-on-month and down 2.84 percentage points year-on-year. The main reasons are the fewer days in February and the fact that some new production capacity is still in the ramp-up stage, leading to a decline in the operating rate.

[Vinacomin (TKV) Deploys 2025 Production Targets] On January 4, 2025, Vinacomin (TKV) deployed its 2025 production tasks, planning to produce 1.3 million mt of alumina for the year. Among them, Lam Dong Aluminum Company is expected to produce 185,000 mt of alumina and sell 175,000 mt in Q1. In 2024, TKV achieved an alumina production of 1.41 million mt and sales of 1.39 million mt, exceeding the annual target. Meanwhile, the annual profit reached VND 623 billion, up 42% YoY.

Aluminium is an essential component of the global economy, and this week, the upstream sector witnessed some significant events. For instance, India's bauxite mining sector has grown in the non-ferrous segment, achieving an output of 23.93 million tonnes in FY 2023-2024.

The global aluminium market faced challenges in 2024, including alumina shortages, geopolitical tensions, and shipping disruptions. In 2025, alumina supply is expected to recover, creating a surplus, while primary aluminium may shift to a narrow surplus amid limited capacity growth and steady demand. Regional markets will vary, with the U.S. remaining resilient and Europe facing supply risks. Aluminium prices are likely to stay supported but volatile due to economic recovery, geopolitical factors, and cost pressures.