SMM 7.31 News： According to SMM statistics, overseas metallurgical-grade alumina production in July 2026 fell approximately 1.0% year-on-year but rose 25.0% month-on-month. Overseas alumina supply showed significant recovery in July, as capacity previously constrained by Middle East tensions, hurricanes, and unplanned outages improved to varying degrees. Middle Eastern producers gradually resumed operations, Atlantic-region capacity affected by disruptions also recovered, and an Indian producer continued its slow ramp-up. By company and region: Jamaica is emerging from its 2025 trough. The government expects bauxite and alumina export revenues to rise 24% year-on-year to $760 million in 2026, driven by post-hurricane Melissa reconstruction efforts, though still below the $803.4 million recorded in 2024. In Q1 2026, Jamaica's alumina production fell 30.3% year-on-year to 267,060 mt, with bauxite output down 26.4% to 415,143 mt, while exports also contracted. The low-base rebound in July provided some modest support to overseas supply. In Southeast Asia, the Indonesian President's Office recently called for enhanced regulatory oversight, as exports of certain alumina products containing rare earth elements have faced obstacles. Indonesia has yet to issue regulations specifying permissible rare earth content in export products, and this policy uncertainty could pose disruptions to subsequent outbound shipments. In the Middle East, Emirates Global Aluminium (EGA) restarted its Al Taweelah alumina refinery on July 10, with production expected to reach 50% of capacity within days, and the company aims to achieve full technical capability by year-end. The refinery produced 2.4 million mt of alumina in 2025. However, the restart timeline for Aluminium Bahrain (Alba) remains unclear, while Qatalum continues to operate at only 60% of capacity. Geopolitical risks in the region persist. Additionally, South32's FY2026 production report showed Brazilian alumina output rose 5.3% year-on-year to 1.4 million mt. The company reiterated its binding agreement to sell its aluminum business to Alcoa for approximately $5.6 billion, with the transaction expected to close in the second half of 2027. Looking ahead to August, overseas metallurgical-grade alumina supply is expected to continue its recovery, with overall availability trending looser. The Middle East restart, improved Indonesian raw material access, and capacity restoration in India and the Atlantic region will contribute incremental supply. However, the Middle East conflict remains unresolved, while Indonesia's rare earth regulatory policies and quota issues, along with European sanctions uncertainty, could still disrupt the supply recovery. Supply-side uncertainties persist.

SMM July 31 – In July 2026, China's metallurgical-grade alumina output rose 2.18% month-on-month, but declined 2.48% year-on-year. As of the end of July, the country's total built capacity stood at approximately 118.42 million tonnes/year, while overall operating capacity fell 1.18% month-on-month and 2.48% year-on-year. The month-on-month decline in operating capacity was primarily driven by the combined impact of multiple regional factors, leading to diverging utilization rates among producers: In southern China, some Guangxi-based smelters gradually resumed operations in July after earlier boiler-related shutdowns, with capacity recovering to around 3 million tonnes/year by the end of the month, providing some support to regional output. However, another Guangxi alumina refinery proactively reduced production due to technical issues, partially offsetting the recovery momentum. In Guizhou, tight domestic bauxite supply prompted smelters to adjust production schedules flexibly, while routine maintenance work further curtailed output. Nevertheless, one Guizhou smelter that had previously suspended operations is steadily ramping up production, contributing to a modest increase in the province's total output. In northern China, a Shanxi-based smelter remained offline throughout July due to red mud disposal issues, becoming a key drag on regional production. Meanwhile, multiple northern smelters faced tightening bauxite supply, which further constrained operating rates and weighed on overall output in the region. Looking ahead to August, China's metallurgical-grade alumina output is expected to recover. In Guangxi, maintenance work and boiler issues are likely to be largely resolved, allowing production to return to normal levels. The red mud disposal problem in Shanxi is also expected to be addressed by mid-August, enabling the restart of affected capacity. In addition, domestic bauxite supply is anticipated to improve modestly, providing feedstock support for output growth. Although some regions have planned maintenance schedules, the overall volume of restarts is expected to outweigh maintenance-related reductions. Preliminary estimates suggest that China's metallurgical-grade alumina operating capacity will stabilize at around 89.20 million tonnes/year in August.

South32 reported that its FY2026 aluminum production exceeded previous guidance by 1%, while alumina output met expectations. Brazil aluminum production increased 4.3% YoY to 144,000 tonnes as all three potlines ramped up, while Brazil alumina production rose 5.3% YoY to 1.4 million tonnes. The company also reaffirmed its US$5.6 billion agreement to sell its aluminum business to Alcoa, with the transaction expected to close in H2 2027.

[SMM Aluminum Express News] Alcoa lowered its 2026 alumina production guidance by 200,000–300,000 tonnes to 9.5–9.6 million tonnes after Cyclone Narelle and organic contamination in bauxite disrupted operations at its Pinjarra refinery in Western Australia. Alumina shipment guidance was also reduced by 300,000–400,000 tonnes, although the refinery has since returned to stable operations. The weaker outlook weighed on investor sentiment, with Alcoa shares falling after second-quarter earnings missed market expectations despite year-on-year profit growth. The company said alumina demand remains strong in China but weaker in the Middle East amid disruptions linked to the Strait of Hormuz.

SMM, June 30 According to SMM statistics, overseas metallurgical-grade alumina output in June 2026 fell by around 6.0% YoY and 5.5% MoM. Supply-side disruptions in the overseas alumina market became more evident compared with May. On the one hand, affected by tensions in the Middle East, production and shipment schedules at some producers have yet to fully recover. On the other hand, weather-related disruptions and natural gas supply issues in Australia continued to weigh on local alumina output and shipments. By company and region, Alcoa said that due to the impact of Cyclone Narelle in Australia, LNG supply to its Pinjarra alumina refinery in Western Australia was temporarily disrupted. As a result, the company expects its alumina shipments in Q2 to decrease by around 120,000 mt compared with Q1, while the disruption is expected to increase Q2 production costs by around $30 million. In addition, due to tensions in the Middle East, fuel costs at the company’s São Luís alumina refinery in Brazil also increased. Alcoa’s Western Australia alumina operations are currently under significant pressure from weak alumina prices, declining bauxite grades and rising energy costs. In Europe, geopolitical risks continued to escalate. During the EU’s new round of discussions on sanctions against Russia in June, exports of alumina from Ireland’s Aughinish Alumina to Russia remained under scrutiny. Public reports showed that alumina exports were not included in the latest EU sanctions package for the time being. However, if sanctions are tightened further, this could affect European alumina trade flows and the regional supply landscape. Entering June, with some Malaysian bauxite cargoes arriving, feedstock availability improved at certain alumina refineries in Indonesia, creating room for a subsequent recovery in output. However, Indonesia’s bauxite quota policy and logistics stability still need to be closely monitored. In addition, Tajikistan and Azerbaijan also discussed cooperation in alumina supply and aluminium product trade in June. Under the proposed arrangement, Azerbaijan would supply alumina to Tajikistan, while Tajikistan would export aluminium products to Azerbaijan. This cooperation is expected to have limited impact on overseas alumina output in the short term, but it reflects ongoing regional aluminium industry chain coordination and adjustments in trade flows. Looking ahead to July, overseas metallurgical-grade alumina supply is expected to see a recovery, with output likely to rise by around 4.5% MoM. On the one hand, raw material constraints at some Indonesian alumina refineries have eased following the arrival of bauxite cargoes, and output is expected to recover gradually. On the other hand, weather-related and natural gas supply disruptions in Australia are easing at the margin, which may support the recovery of previously affected production and shipment schedules. However, geopolitical risks in the Middle East, uncertainty over EU sanctions against Russia, energy cost pressure in Australia, and Indonesia’s bauxite quota issues may continue to disrupt the recovery of overseas supply. Overall, overseas alumina output is expected to rebound slightly in July, but supply-side uncertainty remains relatively high.

SMM, June 30 In June 2026, China’s metallurgical-grade alumina output fell 1.7% MoM but rose 0.7% YoY. As of the end of June, China’s total built alumina capacity stood at around 118.42 million mt/year. Operating capacity increased 1.6% MoM and 0.7% YoY. The change in output this month was mainly driven by the offset between new capacity ramp-up and localised production cuts. On the one hand, the second production line of a newly commissioned project in Guangxi continued to ramp up, supporting an increase in alumina output in south China. On the other hand, some capacity in Shanxi was temporarily reduced due to environmental protection-related factors, partially offsetting the output increase from new capacity. Meanwhile, as some calciners in north China completed maintenance, output at relevant producers recovered to some extent. Overall, alumina output in north China edged lower in June, while output in south China increased. Looking ahead to July, the alumina market is expected to maintain its current supply pattern. Some alumina producers in Guangxi are expected to complete boiler maintenance, which may further lift output in the region. However, affected by the mining accident in Shanxi, domestic bauxite mining has been restricted to some extent. Tight domestic ore supply has prompted some alumina producers that mainly use domestic bauxite to adjust their production plans. In addition, with alumina inventories still at high levels, some producers may arrange maintenance going forward. Overall, alumina operating capacity in July is expected to be around 88.60 million mt/year.