[Australian Refinery Fire Sparks Zinc Ore Supply Concerns] According to SMM, a fire broke out at the Viva Energy refinery in Geelong, Victoria, Australia, at around 11 PM on April 15, causing a partial shutdown. The refinery is one of only two still operating in Australia, supplying approximately 50% of Victoria's fuel and 10% of the nation's total fuel demand. Given the uncertain production situation and Australia's long-term dependence on diesel imports, the incident sparked market concerns over Australian lead and zinc ore supply. Zinc prices briefly surged above $3,400/mt. Subsequent attention will focus on Australian zinc concentrates production and transportation conditions.

[Large Arrivals of Imported Zinc Ore May Lead to Further Increase in TCs in June]: In June, domestic zinc concentrate TCs continued to rise. The average monthly domestic zinc concentrate TC (SMM) increased by 150 yuan/mt (metal content) MoM to 3,650 yuan/mt (metal content). The average monthly imported Zn50 TC (SMM) increased by $10/dmt MoM to $55/dmt. On a weekly basis, the average weekly domestic Zn50 TC (SMM) remained flat MoM at 3,500 yuan/mt (metal content), and the average weekly imported Zn50 TC (SMM) remained flat MoM at $45/dmt...

[Imported Zinc Ore Supplements Domestic Supply, SHFE Zinc Gains Insufficient]: The most-traded SHFE zinc 2507 contract opened at 22,215 yuan/mt. Early in the session, SHFE zinc dipped to 22,180 yuan/mt. Subsequently, after the opening, SHFE zinc fluctuated rangebound around the daily average line, reaching a high of 22,260 yuan/mt during the morning session, and finally closed up at 22,220 yuan/mt...

On Wednesday, the most-traded SHFE zinc ZN2506 contract opened higher, fluctuated and pulled back during the day, and opened higher and fluctuated at night, while LME zinc rose first and then fell. Spot market: The mainstream transaction prices of Shanghai 0# zinc were concentrated at 22,815-23,040 yuan/mt, with a premium of 220-230 yuan/mt against the 2505 contract. At the end of the long-term contract, the market volume was limited, traders continued to stand firm on quotes, the premium continued to rise, futures prices moved higher, downstream purchase willingness was weak, and transactions were moderate. The US April Markit composite PMI unexpectedly fell to a 16-month low, the Eurozone April composite PMI was almost flat, and both Germany and France fell into contraction. Overall, the April PMI data in Europe and the US were poor, the impact of tariffs gradually emerged, and the US Fed's Beige Book showed concerns about the deteriorating economic outlook in many regions. However, Trump and Bessent recently released optimistic signals on trade negotiations, and market sentiment improved. Currently, zinc ore supply is relatively ample, and the safety accident at the Antamina mine has limited short-term impact. If the shutdown period is long, it will affect the recovery pace of overseas zinc mines. Domestic smelters increased maintenance in May, supply pressure marginally eased, and demand is still in the peak season, supporting supply and demand improvement. However, macro uncertainties remain, and funds maintained cautious trading. The weighted open interest of SHFE zinc fluctuated around 235,000 lots, with no significant changes. The view of a weak rebound in zinc prices with limited upside in the short term is maintained, and inventory data will be watched today.

Smelters purchased less raw material, weekly zinc concentrate TCs remained stable: Weekly zinc concentrate TCs remained stable. The SMM Zn50 domestic weekly TC average price was flat WoW at 3,250 yuan/mt (metal content), and the SMM Zn50 imported weekly TC average price was also flat WoW at $35/dmt...

Smelter Raw Material Purchases Were Low, Weekly Zinc Concentrate TCs Remained Stable: Weekly zinc concentrate TCs remained stable. The SMM Zn50 domestic weekly TC average was flat WoW at 3,250 yuan/mt (metal content), and the SMM Zn50 imported weekly TC average was flat WoW at $35/dmt...