On July 17, the average warrant price rose by $5/mt from the previous trading day to $100/mt (price range: $95-105/mt); the average B/L price rose by $5/mt to $100/mt (price range: $95-105/mt); the average price of EQ copper (CIF B/L) rose by $4/mt to $64/mt (price range: $60-68/mt), with quotes referencing cargoes arriving from mid-to-late July to mid-to-late August. Against the backdrop of the North American siphoning effect and production disruptions in Africa due to rising production costs, the market continued to trade on the narrative of a shortage of available cargoes in the short term. The SHFE/LME price ratio recovered somewhat today, and suppliers, still bullish on the forward ratio and premiums, held back from selling. There were only a few seller offers in the market, and they were raised further. Today, some registered B/Ls for arrival in late July were heard offered at $110-120/mt, and a small amount of EQ copper was heard offered at $80/mt.

This week (July 13-16), the weekly average B/L transaction price range for Yangshan copper premiums was $84-95/mt, QP August, averaging $90/mt; the weekly average warrant transaction price range was $85-95/mt, QP August, averaging $90/mt; and EQ copper CIF B/L was $53-61/mt, QP August, averaging $57/mt. As of July 16, the ex-FX SHFE/LME copper price ratio for LME copper against the SHFE copper 2608 contract stood at 1.1426, with an import loss around 374.65 yuan/mt, widening from the prior period. As of Thursday, the LME copper front-end was in a contango structure, with the spread between the August and September dates at −$7.45/mt. Currently, mainstream offer indications for pyrometallurgical registered copper B/L are around $100-110/mt, and for EQ copper CIF B/L around $65-70/mt. This week, Yangshan copper premiums continued their upward momentum, still driven primarily by expectations of persistently tight market supply, which prompted suppliers to hold back from selling. Available cargoes were scarce during the week, and domestic social inventory continued destocking, giving upstream sellers strong confidence to hold prices firm. Spot premiums repeatedly hit new highs for the year, but downstream demand showed mediocre performance, with limited actual transactions. On the price ratio front, the ratio weakened over the week, yet sellers held an optimistic outlook for the near term. Overall, sellers’ firm pricing and downstream fear of high prices intertwined, presenting a weak supply-demand picture. According to SMM, as of Thursday (July 16), domestic bonded zone copper inventories increased by about 3,300 mt WoW from July 13 to 38,900 mt. Shanghai bonded inventory rose 2,900 mt WoW to 34,800 mt, and Guangdong bonded inventory rose 400 mt WoW to 4,100 mt. The bonded zone inventory shifted from destocking to buildup, mainly because some suppliers took an optimistic view on future premiums and the price ratio, showing low willingness to sell and leading to reduced warehouse withdrawals. Looking ahead, amid the siphoning effect from North America and production losses in Africa due to rising production costs, the market will continue to trade the tight availability of cargoes in the near term. However, it is worth noting that LME cancelled warrants have increased significantly recently, and according to SMM, some cargoes are already being shipped to China. Attention should be paid to the volume of this supply replenishment and the downstream's actual consumption capacity to absorb the high premiums.

On July 16, the average warrant price rose $5/mt from the previous trading day, quoted at $95/mt (price range $90-100/mt); the average B/L price rose $6/mt, quoted at $95/mt (price range $90-100/mt); the average price of EQ copper (CIF B/L) rose $3/mt, quoted at $60/mt (price range $57-63/mt), referencing cargoes arriving from mid-to-late July to mid-to-late August. Currently, China's social inventory continued to destock, and market supply remained tight, largely as LME cancelled warrants were shipped to China. Suppliers with limited cargo in hand held firm quotations, and the actual transaction price center continued to move up, though trading volume was low, leaving the market in a state of weak supply and demand. Today, it was heard that a registered B/L arriving in mid-to-late August traded at $100/mt, and a small volume of EQ copper was quoted at $70/mt.

On July 15, the average warrant price was flat from the previous trading day at $90/mt (price range $85-95/mt); the average B/L price was flat at $89/mt (price range $83-95/mt); and the average price for EQ copper (CIF B/L) rose $1/mt from the previous trading day to $57/mt (price range $53-61/mt), with quotes referencing cargoes arriving from mid-July to mid-August. The market continued to trade on the supply deficit logic, with destocking of China's social inventories, the opening of the near-term SHFE/LME price ratio window, and limited available cargoes supporting spot offers. However, downstream demand was generally limited, and actual transactions were sluggish today. It was heard today that offers for registered B/L for August arrival were at $95, and EQ copper arriving in mid-July was traded at $50/mt with QP July.

This week (July 6 – July 9), the weekly average price range for Yangshan copper premium B/L transactions was $73–$87/mt, QP August, with an average price of $80/mt; the weekly average price range for warrant transactions was $74–$85/mt, QP August, with an average price of $80/mt; and EQ copper CIF B/L was at $43–$54/mt, QP August, with an average price of $49/mt. As of July 9, the forex-adjusted SHFE/LME copper price ratio for the SHFE copper 2607 contract against LME copper was 1.1406, with an import profit near 200.22 yuan/mt, compared to a loss of 163.35 yuan/mt in the previous period, with the arbitrage window open. As of Thursday, the front-end contango structure of LME copper widened, with the carry spread between the July date and August date at −$42.98/mt. Currently, mainstream offers for high-quality ER copper warrants are around $90–$100/mt, and mainstream offers for B/L are around $90–$100/mt; CIF B/L EQ copper traded around $50–$60/mt. This week, Yangshan copper premiums showed a rapid uptrend. The logic remained: low port arrivals from July to August led to persistently tight supply, giving suppliers strong sentiment to hold back from selling and hold prices firm, significantly lifting market offers and transaction centers. On the SHFE/LME price ratio side, the import price ratio swung from a loss to a profit, and downstream restocking actions occurred due to a typhoon. However, the rapid rise in premiums has caused current divergence between upstream and downstream players. Overall, limited available cargo, tight supply, and an open arbitrage window were the core drivers of this round's premium rise. According to the SMM survey, as of Thursday this week (July 9), China's bonded zone copper inventory decreased by about 4,400 mt MoM from the previous period (July 2) to 35,300 mt. Inventory in the Shanghai bonded zone was down 3,900 mt MoM to 31,900 mt, and in the Guangdong bonded zone, it was down 500 mt MoM to 3,400 mt. Bonded zone inventory destocked for a third consecutive week, consistent with shrinking port arrivals and tightening available cargo; the destocking pace widened from last week (a 1,300 mt decline), mainly due to low restocking into the bonded zone. Looking ahead, the pattern of tight arrivals from July to August continues to materialize, and supply-side support for premiums is likely to persist. Coupled with a rising import price ratio and a far-end shift to a backwardation structure, this is expected to continue giving suppliers confidence to hold prices firm. However, attention should be paid to whether current downstream actual consumption demand can support the sustained rise in premiums.

On July 7, the average warrant price rose $6/mt from the previous trading day to $80/mt (price range: $75-80/mt); the average B/L price rose $6/mt from the previous trading day to $80/mt (price range: $74-86/mt); the average price of EQ copper (CIF B/L) rose $3/mt from the previous trading day to $48/mt (price range: $41-55/mt), with quotations referencing cargo arrivals from July to mid-August. The spot cargo supply remained tight today, continuing to give suppliers confidence to hold prices firm. Offers were limited and premiums kept climbing, but downstream players indicated that current consumption demand was moderate and were reluctant to accept high-priced cargoes. It was heard that yesterday, a warrant for delivery in early to mid-July was traded at $85/mt, while today, a warrant for delivery in late July was offered at $90/mt. Registered ER B/L for arrival in late July was offered at $95/mt, and a small volume of EQ copper for late July was offered at around $60/mt.